Marco Pagano

University of Naples Federico II | UNINA · Department of Economics and Statistics

Firms may pursue non-meritocratic promotion policies at the cost of lower profitability, if they yield private benefits of control. Corporate governance standards that limit these private benefits favor meritocratic promotions, and thereby encourage workers' skill acquisition. Managerial incentive pay has ambiguous effects on workers' skill acquisi...

Local companies attract significantly more attention from investors than nonlocal companies, especially at times of news releases and high volatility. This attention gap widens especially when news is firm-specific rather than aggregate, and in response to idiosyncratic rather than market risk. Attention is causally related to perceived proximity:...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the...

In recent years, European financial economists have been brought together, via research projects and conferences, by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). These fruitful interactions have contributed to the development of financial economics in Europe, and have generated a strong flow of interesting writing—both theoretical and empirical—...

We distill evidence about the effects of COVID-19 on companies. Stock price reactions to the shock differed greatly across firms, depending on their resilience to social distancing, financial flexibility, and corporate culture. The same characteristics affected the response of firms’ sales, employment, and asset growth. Despite the shock, firms exp...

An arbitrageur with short investment horizon gains from accelerating price discovery by advertising his private information. However, advertising many assets may overload investors’ attention, reducing the number of informed traders per asset and slowing price discovery. So the arbitrageur optimally concentrates advertising on just a few assets, un...

We employ a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms to forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown. A 3-month lockdown generates an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP, and 17% of sample firms, which employ 8.8% of the sample’s employees, become financially distressed. Distress is...

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

We forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown, using a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms. A 3-month lockdown entails an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP and results in financial distress for 17% of the sample firms, employing 8.8% of the sample employees. Distress is more...

In China, between 2006 and 2013, local public debt crowded out the investment of private firms by tightening their funding constraints while leaving state‐owned firms' investment unaffected. We establish this result using a purpose‐built data set for Chinese local public debt. Private firms invest less in cities with more public debt, with the redu...

Governments are deciding on measures to help economies recover from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, but, as in previous crises, a narrow focus on fighting the recession could have adverse effects on the environment and health. We suggest that health and sustainability should be at the heart of the economic response.

This paper investigates whether security markets price the effect of social distancing on firms' operations. We document that firms that are more resilient to social distancing significantly outperformed those with lower resilience during the COVID-19 outbreak, even after controlling for the standard risk factors. Similar cross-sectional return dif...

We establish that the labor market helps discipline asset managers via the impact of fund liquidations on their careers. Using hand-collected data on 1,948 professionals, we find that top managers working for funds liquidated after persistently poor relative performance suffer demotion coupled with a significant loss in imputed compensation. Scarri...

We forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown, using a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms. A 3-month lockdown entails an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP and results in financial distress for 17% of the sample firms, employing 8.8% of the sample employees. Distress is more...

Experts from economics, finance, law, policy, and banking discuss the design and implementation of a future capital market union in Europe. The plan for further development of Europe's economic and monetary union foresees the creation of a capital market union (CMU)—a single market for capital in the entire Eurozone. The need for citizens and firms...

Corporate leverage responds differently to employees’ rights in bankruptcy depending on whether it is driven by strategic concerns in wage bargaining or by credit constraints. Using novel data on employees’ rights in bankruptcy, we estimate their impact on leverage, exploiting time-series, cross-country, and firm-level variation in the data. For fi...

Using a firm-level international panel data set, we study if unemployment insurance offered by the government and by firms are substitutes. We exploit cross-country and time-series variation in public unemployment insurance as a shifter of workers’ demand for insurance within firms, and family versus nonfamily ownership as a shifter of firms’ suppl...

During the Euro debt crisis, banks' holdings of domestic sovereign debt amplified the transmission of sovereign stress to bank lending and solvency risk in stressed countries. Yet, current proposals to reform European banking regulation of bank sovereign exposures meet with obstacles, some structural-namely, the scarcity and asymmetric provision of...

This book is the product of a two-year research programme entitled Restarting European Long-Term Investment Finance (RELTIF), organized by Assonime and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London. The programme brought together leading researchers from across the world to consider the causes of the persistently low level of investment...

Using novel monthly data for 226 euro-area banks from 2007 to 2015, we investigate the determinants of banks' sovereign exposures and their effects on lending during and after the crisis. Public, bailed-out and poorly capitalized banks responded to sovereign stress by purchasing domestic public debt more than other banks, consistent with both the "...

The euro crisis was fuelled by the diabolic loop between sovereign risk and bank risk, coupled with cross-border flight-to-safety capital flows. European Safe Bonds (ESBies), a euro area-wide safe asset without joint liability, would help to resolve these problems. We make three contributions. First, numerical simulations show that ESBies with a su...

In both the subprime crisis and the eurozone crisis, regulators imposed bans on short sales mainly aimed at preventing stock price turbulence from destabilizing financial institutions. Contrary to the regulators’ intentions, financial institutions whose stocks were banned experienced greater increases in the probability of default and volatility th...

We present a model in which firms compete for scarce managerial talent (“alpha”) and managers are risk averse. When managers cannot move across firms after being hired, employers learn about their talent, efficiently allocate them to projects, and provide insurance to low-quality managers. When, instead, managers can move across firms, firm-level c...

We propose a simple model of the sovereign-bank diabolic loop, and establish four results. First, the diabolic loop can be avoided by restricting banks’ domestic sovereign exposures relative to their equity. Second, equity requirements can be lowered if banks only hold senior domestic sovereign debt. Third, such requirements shrink even further if...

More transparent firms enjoy better access to finance, and also enable closer scrutiny by tax authorities and thus face a heavier tax burden, insofar as they are required to report the same data to tax authorities and investors (book-tax conformity). We study this trade-off in a model with distortionary taxes and finance rationing, and test its pre...

Europe’s financial structure has become strongly bank-based–far more so than in other economies. We document that an increase in the size of the banking system relative to equity and private bond markets is associated with more systemic risk and lower economic growth, particularly during housing market crises. We argue that these two phenomena aris...

The financial structure of an economy is the set of institutions that channel resources from its savers to its investors, allocate them across alternative uses, and enable investors to share risks and diversify their portfolios. These functions can be performed by capital markets or by financial intermediaries that match savers and borrowers indepe...

The euro crisis was fuelled by the diabolic loop between sovereign risk and bank risk, coupled with cross-border flight-to-safety capital flows. European Safe Bonds (ESBies), a euro area-wide safe asset without joint liability, would help to resolve these problems. We make three contributions. First, numerical simulations show that ESBies with a su...

We propose a simple model of the sovereign-bank diabolic loop, and establish four results. First, the diabolic loop can be avoided by restricting banks’ domestic sovereign exposures relative to their equity. Second, equity requirements can be lowered if banks only hold senior domestic sovereign debt. Third, such requirements shrink even further if...

The euro crisis was fueled by the diabolic loop between sovereign risk and bank risk, coupled with cross-border flight-to-safety capital flows. European Safe Bonds (ESBies), a union-wide safe asset without joint liability, would help to resolve these problems. We make three contributions. First, numerical simulations show that ESBies would be at le...

In China, local public debt issuance between 2006 and 2013 crowded out investment by private manufacturing firms by tightening their funding constraints, while it did not affect state-owned and foreign firms. Using novel data for local public debt issuance, we establish this result in three ways. First, local public debt is inversely correlated wit...

The 2007 to 2009 financial crisis resulted in the re-emergence of the debate on financial regulation and its relationships with other macroeconomic policies, particularly monetary policy. In Europe, the financial crisis was followed by the sovereign debt crisis, as the bail-out of the financial sector put strains on public finances in several count...

Persistently low growth and investment are a source of deep concern in European economies. The causes are extensively discussed but the financial system is repeatedly cited as a potentially major contributory factor. Is this justified? Is there evidence to support it? This Green Paper is the first output from a project on Restarting European Long-T...

We investigate the determinants of firms’ implicit insurance to employees, using a difference-in-difference approach: we rely on differences between family and non-family firms to identify the supply of insurance, and exploit variation in unemployment insurance across and within countries to gauge workers’ demand for insurance. Using a firm-level p...

The EU banking system has reached a size where it is likely to give a negative contribution to economic growth and to increase risk taking, in the form of banks’ default risk and of likelihood of financial crises. Moreover, being heavily bank-dependent, the EU financial system is associated with a more volatile supply of credit and lower economic g...

Since 2008, eurozone sovereign yields have diverged sharply, and so have the corresponding credit default swap (CDS) premia. At the same time, banks' sovereign debt portfolios have featured an increasing home bias. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between these two facts, and its rationale. First, we inquire to what extent the dynamic...

We investigate the determinants of firms’ implicit employment and wage insurance to employees against industry-level and idiosyncratic shocks. We rely on differences between family and non-family firms to identify the supply of insurance, and between national public insurance programs to gauge workers’ demand for insurance. Using firm-level data fr...

Speculators often advertise arbitrage opportunities in order to persuade other investors and thus accelerate the correction of mispricing. We show that in order to minimize the risk and the cost of arbitrage an investor who identifies several mispriced assets optimally advertises only one of them, and overweights it in his portfolio; a risk-neutral...

Has economic research been helpful in dealing with the financial crises of the early 2000s? On the whole, the answer is negative, although there are bright spots. Economists have largely failed to predict both crises, largely because most of them were not analytically equipped to understand them, in spite of their recurrence in the last 25 years. I...

Financial integration has made great steps forward in Europe in the last decade. Yet, if a single currency is a necessary condition for the emergence of pan-European capital markets, it is not a sufficient one. Even after the removal of exchange rate risk, persistent differences in the regulations applying to financial intermediaries, tax treatment...

The way in which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. Market Liquidity offers a more accurate and authoritative take on liquidity and price discovery. The authors start from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times...