Marcelo Fragoso

Marcelo Fragoso
University of Lisbon | UL · Institute of Geography and Territorial Planning

PhD in Physical Geography

About

79
Publications
16,916
Reads
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677
Citations
Citations since 2016
25 Research Items
475 Citations
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2016201720182019202020212022020406080
2016201720182019202020212022020406080
2016201720182019202020212022020406080
Introduction
climatology; climate variability and climate change; historical climatology: extreme events; climatic hazards; thunderstorms and lightning.
Additional affiliations
January 2009 - present
University of Lisbon
Position
  • Researcher
October 1990 - December 2008
University of Lisbon
Position
  • Researcher

Publications

Publications (79)
Article
The present study aims to identify regions of extreme precipitation in mainland Portugal and to create a single index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). For this purpose, twelve extreme precipitation indices were selected from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices between 1950 and 2003. By considering only six extreme...
Article
The present study aims to investigate how large-scale atmospheric circulation may influence flash floods in Portugal. For this purpose, weather types (WTs) in a northeastern North Atlantic sector are used and flash floods between 1950 and 2003 were identified in six hydrographic basins: three in the north of Portugal and another three in the south...
Article
Full-text available
This study aims to characterise the rainfall ex-ceptionality and the meteorological context of the 20 Febru-ary 2010 flash-floods in Madeira (Portugal). Daily and hourly precipitation records from the available rain-gauge station networks are evaluated in order to reconstitute the temporal evolution of the rainstorm, as its geographic inci-dence, c...
Article
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The final stage of the Little Ice Age in Europe was characterised by strong climatic variability. New documentary sources containing information referring to weather and climate are used in this study to reconstruct and to describe climate conditions in Portugal during the 18th century, mainly in the 1780s. Indexation of documentary data concerning...
Article
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The aim of this study is to carry out two objective classifications concerning the occurrence of episodes of heavy rainfall in Southern Portugal. The first one seeks to define the main spatial distribution patterns associated with abundant rainfall days in this region. Using a 15-year (from October 1983 to April 1998) precipitation data base corres...
Chapter
Full-text available
Procede-se a uma breve reflexão sobre as metodologias de avaliação da perigosidade, suscetibilidade e risco associados a diferentes tipos de condições atmosféricas adversas, no contexto do planeamento de emergência à escala municipal. A colaboração dos autores em diversos planos municipais de emergência desenvolvidos entre 2011 e 2014 suscitou a re...
Article
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Heatwaves are an extreme meteorological event in which affected populations may also be exposed to deteriorated air quality conditions due to the increase in air pollutant concentrations, such as PM10 (particulate matter < 10 �g/m3). In order to identify heatwaves (1973–2019) in the region of Faro (Algarve) during the hot season (April–September),...
Article
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Climate proxy data are required for improved understanding of climate variability and change in the pre-instrumental period. We present the first international initiative to compile and share information on pro pluvia rogation ceremonies, which is a well-studied proxy of agricultural drought. Currently, the database has more than 3500 dates of cele...
Article
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The study of dust intrusions in Portugal is still a subject on which little investigation has been made, especially in terms of their effects. Thus, this work aims to achieve two goals: firstly, to characterize the dust intrusions in the study area; and secondly, to evaluate the possible statistical association between the dust intrusion days and h...
Article
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Extreme meteorological events have had devastating consequences all over the world throughout the ages. In this study, we look into the floods at the mouth of the Douro River (Porto, Portugal) in the eighteenth century to expand the data series of floods in Northern Portugal. Information was gathered mostly from documentary narrative sources, eithe...
Article
This research quantifies and compares the material damage caused by flooding resulting from the two most extreme rainfall events of the 21st century in two Portuguese regions, using insurance data: the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) and Madeira Island. During the 2000-2011 period, 24% of the claims and 40% of the payouts in the LMA were caused by t...
Article
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Urbanized hot spots incorporate a great diversity of microclimates dependent, among other factors, on local meteorological conditions. Until today, detailed analysis of the combination of climatic variables at local scale are very scarce in urban areas. Thus, there is an urgent need to produce a Local Weather Type (LWT) classification that allows t...
Article
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The article presents new information on the spatial distribution of intense rainfall and a new map of susceptibility to the formation of mass movements in the mountainous streams of the municipality of Funchal, the capital of the Autonomous Region of Madeira, an archipelago of Portugal. The methodology that was adopted is based on the spatial analy...
Article
Full-text available
The article presents new information on the spatial distribution of intense rainfall and a new map of susceptibility to the formation of mass movements in the mountainous streams of the municipality of Funchal, the capital of the Autonomous Region of Madeira, an archipelago of Portugal. The methodology that was adopted is based on the spatial analy...
Article
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Recent and future changes in precipitation extremes over Portugal were studied. Trends in selected precipitation indices were calculated on a seasonal scale for the period of 1950–2003. Considering the same indices, this study also assessed possible changes under future climatic conditions (2046–2065). Furthermore, trends and projections for the fu...
Article
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Neste trabalho, são apresentadas as tendências e as possíveis alterações climáticas de índices de extremos da precipitação selecionados, nos períodos de 1950 a 2003 e 2046 a 2065, para Portugal continental. Os resultados revelam tendências de diminuição da precipitação estatisticamente significativas na primavera, principalmente no centro de Portug...
Article
This research aims to understand how insurance, rainfall, land cover and urban flooding are related and how these variables influenced the material damage in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) during the 2000–2011 period. Correlation coefficients show strong relationships between built-up areas and claims (0.94) and payouts (0.88). Despite no signi...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Throughout the ages, mankind has been severely affected by extreme weather events. These phenomena have been the subject of several studies, with a considerable number of works focusing in particular on rainfall variability, past droughts and their impacts. The current issues on climate change and the recent extreme drought of 2017 in Portugal ra...
Article
A renewed interest in historical droughts is due to the current climate change issues and also to the recent extreme drought of 2017 in Portugal. This work aims to lengthen the historical drought series and help improve projections for the future. The main droughts of the 18th century in mainland Portugal were identified using mostly direct documen...
Article
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Floods are a major natural hazard, with vast implications over a wide range of socio-economic activities. A harmonized post-flood classification is critical for a better understanding of this hazard, by providing homogeneous flood catalogues for future research on triggering mechanisms. We apply a flood severity index (FSI) to damaging floods in No...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
O presente estudo tem como objetivo apresentar um índice único de suscetibilidade a precipitação extrema (EPSI). Para este fim, foram utilizados seis índices de precipitação extrema, entre 1950 e 2003, para o período de retorno de 10 anos. No EPSI anual, as maiores áreas de suscetibilidade são as regiões montanhosas do Norte (por exemplo, Gerês, Pe...
Poster
Full-text available
A tempestade que evoluiu no ciclone tropical “Debbie” foi testemunhada por Ilídio do Amaral no dia 6 de Setembro, na localidade de Pedra Badejo, no litoral oriental da ilha de Santiago. O evento foi analisado e documentado na sua obra “Santiago de Cabo Verde. A Terra e os Homens” (1964). Apresentam-se alguns elementos que documentam a ocorrência de...
Poster
Full-text available
Apresentam-se alguns elementos de investigação recente sobre a irregularidade da precipitação e a ocorrência de secas em Cabo Verde.
Article
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Thresholds based on critical combinations of amount/duration of precipitation and flood events were estimated for the Corgo hydrographic basin, in northern Portugal. Thirty-one flood events in the Corgo basin were identified between 1865 and 2011 from a database of hydrometeorological disasters in Portugal. The minimum, maximum, and pre-warning thr...
Article
Asthma attacks triggered by thunderstorms have been described in several countries. The rises in pollen concentrations, attributed to atmospheric electrical discharges, were considered the leading cause of these outbreaks. The presence of various pollutants as well as certain weather conditions may contribute synergistically to the onset of exacerb...
Article
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Asthma attacks triggered by thunderstorms have been described in several countries. The rises in pollen concentrations, attributed to atmospheric electrical discharges, were considered the leading cause of these outbreaks. The presence of various pollutants as well as certain weather conditions may contribute synergistically to the onset of exacerb...
Article
The present study employs a dataset of cloud-to-ground discharges over Portugal, collected by the Portuguese lightning detection network in the period of 2003-2009, to identify dynamically coherent lightning regimes in Portugal and to implement a statistical-dynamical modeling of the daily discharges over the country. For this purpose, the high-res...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Analysis of the atmospheric conditions underlying the occurrence of a weeklong episode of severe thunderstorms in Portugal in the period from 10 to 17 September 2007. A dataset of cloud-to-ground flashes (CGF) over Portugal, collected by the Portuguese lightning detection network is used. Several atmospheric variables (mean sea level pressure, wind...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Records of lightning data in mainland Portugal began in June 2002. Since then, the spatial-temporal variability of lighting in Portugal has been assessed in some previous studies. A first attempt to model days with low or high atmospheric electrical activity is presented in this work. Firstly, dynamically coherent lightning regimes in Portugal are...
Conference Paper
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Conference Paper
Full-text available
Dynamically coherent lightning regimes in Portugal are identified and a statistical-dynamical logistic modeling of the daily discharges over the country is implemented. A dataset of cloud-to-ground discharges over Portugal, collected by the Portuguese lightning detection network in the period of 2003-2009, is used. The high-resolution MERRA reanaly...
Article
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The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in t...
Article
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Climatic variability from the beginning of regular meteorological observations is now acknowledged. However, climate change prior to 1900 is far from being well known in Portugal, except for the 1675-1800 period in Southern Portugal. An interdisciplinary team is working in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of...
Article
Atmospheric lightning is an important atmospheric hazard, as cloud-to-ground discharges (CGD) can affect people, can lead to severe damages in buildings, equipment, and can trigger forest fires. The potential damages directly linked to CGD have been increasing as society develops (e.g. due to greater use of electronic equipment). However, an adequa...
Article
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WEATHER RADAR IMAGE IN CLIMATOLOGY - After a brief overview about weather radar as a remote sensing instrument, some problems concerning the use of radar images are discussed. The great interest of radar images as a tool in Climatology is pointed out. Finally, a case study about two rainfall events in Nancy (France) in April 1995 is presented.
Article
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No dia 23 de Dezembro de 2009 a região Oeste foi atingida por uma tempestade extratropical com ventos muito fortes (as rajadas foram superiores a 140 km/h), que derrubaram torres de alta tensão (provocando cortes no abastecimento de energia) e árvores. As consequências mais gravosas ocorreram nos distritos de Lisboa, Leiria e Santarém. As quedas de...
Article
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An overview of the large-scale atmospheric forcing on the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning activity over Portugal is presented here. A dataset generated by a network of nine sensors, maintained by the Portuguese Meteorological Institute (four sensors) and by Spanish Meteorological Agency (five sensors), with available data over the 2003-2009...
Article
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Extreme climate events represent a major source of risk for human societies, motivating the current need for more research on these events. Currently, long-term past changes on precipitation are not well understood, although it is generally accepted that they are complex and vary regionally (López-Moreno et al. 2010). Therefore, this study is focus...
Article
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An analysis of the cloud-to-ground discharges (CGD) over Portugal is carried out using data collected by a network of sensors maintained by the Portuguese Meteoro-logical Institute for 2003–2009 (7 yr). Only cloud-to-ground flashes are considered and negative polarity CGD are largely dominant. The total number of discharges reveals a consid-erable...
Conference Paper
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PALAVRAS CHAVE Perigos climáticos, Tipologia das tempestades, Prevenção de riscos. RESUMO A ocorrência de desastres naturais associados a condições atmosféricas adversas está na origem de elevadas perdas de vidas e bens. Em Portugal, os perigos climáticos têm vindo a merecer maior atenção, quer no âmbito dos instrumentos de gestão do território, qu...
Conference Paper
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Resumo Apresenta-se a aplicação de um índice (CI), que avalia a importância relativa das classes de maior abundância diária da precipitação para a precipitação total, proposto por Martín-Vide (2004), aos territórios de Portugal Continental (116 postos pluviométricos) e Cabo Verde (22 postos). O índice CI foi desenvolvido tendo em vista permitir qua...
Article
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On February 20, 2010, the Madeira island (Portugal) was hit by torrential rains that triggered catastrophic flash floods, accounting for 43 deaths and 8 missing people. The regional authorities estimated that the total losses exceeded 1 billion of euros resulting from the destructive damages, which were very harmful in Funchal, the capital of the r...
Article
Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region o...
Article
Weather types in the South Shetlands (Antarctica) were defined using an automated method based on the Lamb Weather Type classification scheme (Jones et al. 1993). This is an objective classification originally developed for the British Isles (Jones et al., 1993) and also applied to southeast (Goodess and Palutikof 1998) and northwest Spain (Lorenzo...
Conference Paper
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Permafrost is central issue in the carbon cycle and climate system and it has been recognized by the WCRP/WMO (World Climate Research Program/World Meteorological Organization) as a key element of the Earth System in which research efforts should focus on. Compared with the Arctic, very little is known about the distribution, thickness and properti...
Article
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Trees bring many benefits to the urban environment. However, they may also cause hazards to human population, being the major causes of injuries and infrastructural damage during strong wind events. In the city of Lisbon, strong winds rather frequently result in tree falls, depending on the season and meteorological conditions. This paper presents...
Conference Paper
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Prior research has allowed the building of a windstorm database in the Lisbon City Council, (LCC) Portugal (Lopes et al., 2008), based on a systematic selection of strong wind events responsible for damage, and tree falls (1241 occurrences from 1990 to 2006). The study of the atmospheric environment related with windy weather conditions in the Lisb...
Article
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On 18 February 2008 the city of Lisbon had its rainiest day on record, i.e. since the establishment of the D. Luís Observatory in 1853 (continuous observations of meteorological variables are only available since 1864). Fortunately a Portuguese funded project (SIGN) allowed to digitize all the data between 1864 and 1941, allowing a proper compariso...