Marc Joëts

IESEG School of Management · Finance

The role of uncertainty in the global economy is now widely recognized by policy-makers but its specific effects on the international financial system are less understood. In this paper, we assess the impact of uncertainty fluctuations on the interconnectedness within the international system of equity prices. In this respect, we extend the measure...

While there exists numerous studies on the macroeconomic effects of oil and commodity shocks, the literature is quite silent on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on oil and commodity prices and, especially, on their volatility. This paper tackles this issue through the estimation of a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model on a sample o...

The aim of this contribution is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the oil market. We rely on a robust measure of macroeconomic uncertainty based on a wide range of monthly macroeconomic and financial indicators, which is linked to predictability rather than to volatility. We estimate a structural threshold vector autoregressive...

The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the first large scale CO2 emission trading system in the world. Carbon allowances are financial assets, potentially vulnerable to the behavior of traders and investors. In fact, the carbon price has been quite volatile since the inception of the market, and it has recently hit very low values....

This study revisits the important relationship between oil prices and current account for an oil-exporting countries with a diversified economy, namely the Canada, by paying particular attention to the time-varying nature of this link. To this end, we rely on an innovative method, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model wit...

In the coming years, a consistent number of French hydropower concessions will be re-assigned through a competitive public procedure, in which bidders will submit an environmental offer and an economic one. This procedure is likely to generate a trade-off between monetary transfers and environmental pledges. In particular, we expect bidders to coup...

This paper proposes to investigate the impact of financialization on energy markets (oil, gas, coal, and electricity European forward prices) during both normal times and periods of extreme fluctuation by using an original behavioral and emotional approach. With this aim, we propose a new theoretical and empirical framework based on a heterogeneous...

Since decades, energy prices are subject to increasing volatility affecting the whole economy. Compared to other commodity prices (for example precious metals and agro-industrial), energy price dynamics appear to be extremely uncertain both at short and long run. In a global economic context, this phenomenon is very important since intense variatio...

The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between the oil price and a large dataset of commodities prices, relying on panel data settings. Using second generation panel cointegration tests, our findings show that the WTI and the commodity prices are not linked at the long term. Nevertheless, considering our results in causality tests, we...

This paper proposes to investigate the impact of financialization on energy markets (oil, gas, coal and electricity European forward prices) during both normal times and extreme fluctuation periods through an original behavioral and emotional approach. To this aim, we propose a new theoretical and empirical framework based on a heterogeneous agents...

This paper proposes an original procedure which allows for testing of Granger-causality for multiple risk levels across tail distributions, hence extending the procedure proposed by Hong et al. (2009). Asymptotic and finite sample properties of the test are considered. This new Granger-causality framework is applied for a set of regional oil market...

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether price dynamics is homogeneous across the Eurozone countries. Relying on monthly data over the January 1970-July 2011 period, we test for the absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis through the implementation of second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests. Our results show that...

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether price dynamics is homogeneous across the Eurozone countries. Relying on monthly data over the January 1970~July 2011 period, we test for the absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis through the implementation of second and third-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests. Our results...

Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to investigate the relationship between emotion and European energy forward prices of oil, gas, coal and electricity during normal times and periods of extreme price movements. Methodology/Approach – We use a biorhythm approach characterized by the seasonal affective disorder (SAD) variable to study the impa...

This paper investigates price transmissions across European energy forward markets at distinct maturities during both normal times and extreme fluctuation periods. To this end, we rely on the traditional Granger causality test (in mean) and its multivariate extension in tail distribution developped by Candelon, Joëts, and Tokpavi (2012). Considerin...

This paper investigates the relationship between forward prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity using a nonlinear panel cointegration framework. To this end, we consider a panel of 35 maturities and control for the economic and financial environment using equity futures prices. Estimating the cointegrating relationship, we find that oil, gas and...

This paper investigates the global crude oil market dependence during extreme price movements. To this aim we extend the univariate Granger causality test in extreme risk developed by Hong et al. (2009) in a multivariate context. Asymptotic as well as finite sample properties are delivered. Applying this test for 32 crude oil markets, it turns out...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the existence of a long-term relationship between the forward prices of crude oil and domestic fuel (FOD) on the period from August 2003 to April 2010. To this end, we rely on a panel data setting by considering a sample of 36 maturities for the forward prices. Using panel cointegration tests, our results sho...