Manuel Pulido-Velazquez

Universitat Politècnica de València | UPV · Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA)

In recent times, Bayesian Causality, through the combination of probability-graph theories, is emerging with strength as a reliable and robust Artificial Intelligence (AI) technique to deal with modelling and forecast temporal issues of water resources of river basins. This has been due to the potential that BNs offer for discovering, quantifying a...

Climate change projections in many regions of the world show a critical reduction in precipitation and a significant rise in temperatures in the next decades. This change may affect the operation of water utilities in arid and semi-arid parts of the globe. The Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on water...

Water scarcity is an increasingly recurring problem for irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean regions. It is, therefore, necessary to establish technical and financial measures to enable irrigators to deal with this problem. This study presents a new index-based drought insurance scheme in an irrigation district in the Jucar river basin in Spain,...

The book brings together a range of leading scholars and practitioners to compile an international account of water allocation policies supporting a transition to sustainable water use in regions where agriculture is the dominant water use. In Section 1, the collection canvasses five key crosscutting issues shaping the challenge of sustainable wate...

Aquifers are ubiquitous, and their water is easy to obtain with low extraction costs. On many occasions, these characteristics lead to overexploitation due to important water level declines, reduction of river base flows, enhanced seawater intrusion, and wetland affection. The forecasted increase in water demands and global warming will impact the...

A strong innovative tendency is nowadays emerging that largely comprises new hydrological modelling approaches, based on Causal Reasoning through Probabilistic Graphical Modelling (PGM), because its ability to support probabilistic reasoning from data with uncertainty. These novel modelling frameworks are quite diverse and disperse not only in term...

Climate change can significantly affect water systems with negative impacts on many facets of society and ecosystems. Therefore, significant attention must be devoted to the development of efficient adaptation strategies. More specifically, the reoperation of water resources systems to keep the overall performance within acceptable limits should be...

The sustainability of agriculture in the Mediterranean climate is challenged by high irrigation water demands and nitrogen fertilizer losses to the environment, causing significant pressure on groundwater resources and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Advanced irrigation technologies and improved fertilizer management have been promoted as key sol...

The adaptation to the multiple facets of climate/global change challenges the conventional means of water system planning. Numerous demand and supply management options are often available, from which a portfolio of adaptation measures needs to be selected in a context of high uncertainty about future conditions. A framework is developed to integra...

The management of water resources systems involves influencing and improving the interaction among three subsystems: natural (biophysical), economic, and legal-institutional frameworks. In this sense, hydroeconomic models have the advantage of analyzing water management problems through models that explicitly represent these interactions. The combi...

Climate services are tools or products that aim to support climate‐informed decision making for the adaptation to climate change. The market for climate services is dominated by public institutions, despite the efforts made by the European Commission to increase private enterprise in the market. The business model perspective has been proposed as a...

The replacement of flood‐irrigation systems by drip‐irrigation technology has been widely promoted with the aim of a more sustainable use of freshwater resources in irrigated agriculture. However, evidence for an irrigation efficiency paradox emphasizes the need to improve our understanding of the impacts of irrigation transformations on water reso...

This contribution assesses the predictive capacity of Causal Reasoning (CR) applied to uncertain inflows to reservoirs. This was done through a hybrid approach combining an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model with a Bayesian Causal modelling (BCM) over annual inflow time series. This coupling of “classical and innovative approaches” is able...

The operation of multireservoir systems require the development of effective strategies to characterize in detail the spatio-temporal properties of multivariate hydrological time series in water resource systems. In this context, Bayesian Causality has emerged as a prominent alternative to infer the spatio-temporal causal structures able to charact...

The hydrological features of Mediterranean basins of the Iberian Peninsula pose a challenge in the prediction and management of droughts. The expected increase of recurrence, intensity, magnitude and persistence of these hydrological extreme events draws a complex scenario for the management of water resources. These issues offer room for the devel...

Agricultural irrigation is the major water consumer in the Mediterranean region. In response to the growing pressure on freshwater resources, more efficient irrigation technologies have been widely promoted. In this study, we assess the impact of the ongoing transition from flood to drip irrigation on future hydroclimatic regimes under various clim...

This paper aims to assess fully the spatio-temporal dependence dimensions of inflow across two adjacent and parallel basins and among different time steps through Causality. This is addressed from the perspective of Causal Reasoning, supported by Bayesian modelling, under a novel framework named Bayesian Causal Modelling (BCM). This is applied, thr...

Urban water demand management is key to water supply sustainability in high-density, water-stressed areas throughout the world, and emerging technologies could transform it. In particular, smart metering could allow for conserving water by dynamically changing prices to reflect water scarcity and supply cost variability. Yet, little is known on end...

Streamflow forecasting services driven by seasonal meteorological forecasts from dynamic prediction systems deliver valuable information for decision-making in the water sector. Moving beyond the traditional river basin boundaries, large-scale hydrological models enable a coordinated, efficient, and harmonized anticipation and management of water-r...

Translating and incorporating climate information into decision-making and policy planning processes is challenging. In tailoring climate data to sector-specific user needs, climate services are seen as key mechanisms for facilitating this translation and incorporation, supporting climate change adaptation and sustainable development. The European...

Climate Impact Response Functions (CIRFs) could be useful for exploring potential risks of system failure under climate change. The performance of a water resource system could be synthesized through a CIRF that relates climate conditions to system behavior regarding a certain threshold of deliveries to demands or environmental flow requirements. H...

The management of water in systems where the balance between resources and demands is already precarious can pose a challenge and it can be easily disrupted by drought episodes. Anticipated drought management has proved to be one of the main strategies to reduce their impact. Drought economic, environmental, and social impacts affect different sect...

Currently, noticeable changes in traditional hydrological patterns are being observed on the short and medium-term. These modifications are adding a growing variability on water resources behaviour, especially evident in its availability. Consequently, for a better understanding/knowledge of temporal alterations, it is crucial to develop new analyt...

Coordinated and efficient operation of water resource systems becomes essential to deal with growing demands and uncertain resources in water‐stressed regions. System analysis models and tools help address the complexities of multireservoir systems when defining operating rules. This paper reviews the state of the art in developing operating rules...

To satisfy agricultural demands and to sustain the ecological status are frequently conflicting objectives, especially in a context of climate (decline of resources) and land use change (abandonment of farmland and increase on irrigation). Furthermore, flow regulation has fostered the presence of invasive species owing to their better adaptation to...

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by th...

Rubio-Martín, A., Macian-Sorribes, H., Pulido-Velazquez, M., & Garcia-Prats, A. (2019). System dynamics for integrated management of the Jucar River Basin. Spain: European Water Resources Association EWRA.

p>This paper develops a participatory methodology to integrate farmer’s vision in the design of an adaptation strategy to global change in the Jucar River basin. It aims at answering three questions: How farmers perceive climate change impacts; which adaptation measures they consider; and how they assess these measures. Participatory workshops with...

This paper develops a participatory methodology to integrate farmer’s vision in the design of an adaptation strategy to global change in the Jucar River basin. It aims at answering three questions: How farmers perceive climate change impacts; which adaptation measures they consider; and how they assess these measures. Participatory workshops with d...

A fuzzy rule-based system combining empirical data on hydraulic preferences and literature information on temperature requirements was used to foresee the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. The climatic scenarios for the Cabriel River (Eastern Iberian Peninsula) corresponded to two Representative C...

This research project analysed the multiobjective optimization of the environmental flow regime under several global and climate change scenarios in the Serpis River (Eastern Spain), considering trends in water demands, best habitat for native fish species and low overlap of habitat with invasive fish species. This project had the support of Fundac...

Integrating processes of water and energy interdependence in water systems can improve the understanding of the tradeoffs between water and energy in management and policy. This study presents a development of an integrated water resources management model that includes water-related energy use and GHG emissions. We apply the model to a simplified...

Water use directly causes a significant amount of energy use in cities. In this paper we assessed energy and carbon dioxide emissions related to each part of the urban water cycle and the consequences of some water demand management policies in terms of water, energy, and CO2 emissions in urban water users, water and energy utilities, and the envir...

The advent of smart metering is set to revolutionize many aspects of the relationship between water utilities and their customers, and this includes the possibility of using time-varying water prices as a demand management strategy. These dynamic tariffs could promote water use efficiency by reflecting the variations of water demand, availability,...

Socio-economic costs of drought are progressively increasing worldwide due to undergoing alterations of hydro-meteorological regimes induced by climate change. Although drought management is largely studied in the literature, traditional drought indexes often fail at detecting critical events in highly regulated systems, where natural water availab...

The advent of smart metering is set to revolutionize many aspects of the relationship between water utilities and their customers, and this includes the possibility of using time-varying water prices as a demand management strategy. These dynamic tariffs could promote water use efficiency by reflecting the variations of water demand, availability a...

Abstract Water pricing policies have a large and still relatively untapped potential to foster more efficient management of water resources in scarcity situations. This work contributes a framework for designing equitable, financially stable and economically efficient urban water tariffs. A hydroeconomic simulation model links the marginal value of...

Meta-analyses synthesise available data on a phenomenon to get a broader understanding of its determinants. This work proposes a two-step methodology. 1) Based on a broad dataset of residential water demand studies, it builds a meta-regression model to estimate mean and standard deviation of price elasticity of residential water demand. 2) The resu...

Con el objetivo de valorar los efectos producidos por la modernización de los regadíos, se ha llevado a cabo un estudio comparativo del balance hídrico y producciones en parcelas de cítricos con riego por gravedad y riego localizado, pertenecientes respectivamente a los sectores 23 y 24 de la Acequia Real del Júcar. Se ha observado que las parcelas...

Standardized drought indices have been traditionally used to identify and assess droughts because of their simplicity and flexibility to compare the departure from normal conditions across regions at different timescales. Nevertheless, the statistical foundation of these indices assumes stationarity for certain aspects of the climatic variables, wh...

South-east Spain is a drought prone area, characterized by climate variability and water scarcity. The Jucar River Basin, located in Eastern Spain, has suffered many historical droughts with significant socio-economic impacts. For nearly a hundred years, the institutional and non-institutional strategies to cope with droughts have been successful t...

In this paper we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation...

System dynamics (SD) is a modelling approach that allows the analysis of complex systems through the mathematical definition of variables and their relationships. Based on systems thinking, SD is suitable for interdisciplinary studies of the management of complex systems. Over the past 50 years, SD tools have been applied to fields as diverse as ec...

p class="Resumen">La incorporación del cambio climático a la planificación hidrológica no es tarea sencilla, dada la alta incertidumbre asociada. En España, actualmente se consideran los escenarios futuros aplicando un coeficiente de reducción único a las series históricas de aportaciones. El presente artículo analiza la cuestión para el Sistema de...

Although many recent studies have quantified the potential effects of climate change on water resource systems, the scientific community faces now the challenge of developing methods for assessing and selecting climate change adaptation options. This paper presents a method for assessing impacts and adaptation strategies to global change in a river...

This chapter compares water management institutions and approaches in the United States and Europe and describes what the two communities can learn from each other. It begins by comparing and contrasting the history and status of water policy in the two communities. EU water policy is celebrated for its unification by way of a consistent enactment...

The management of large-scale water resource systems with surface and groundwater resources requires considering stream-aquifer interactions. Optimization models applied to large-scale systems have either employed deterministic optimization (with perfect foreknowledge of future inflows, which hinders their applicability to real-life operations) or...

Forests play a determinant role in the hydrologic cycle, with water being the most important ecosystem service they provide in semiarid regions. However, this contribution is usually neither quantified nor explicitly valued. The aim of this study is to develop a novel hydro-economic modelling framework for assessing and designing the optimal integr...

This paper presents a collaborative framework to couple historical records with expert knowledge and criteria to define a decision support system (DSS) that supports the seasonal operation of the reservoirs of the Jucar River system. The framework relies on the codevelopment of a DSS tool that is able to explicitly reproduce the decision-making pro...

The adaptation of water resource systems to the potential impacts of climate change requires mixed portfolios of supply and demand adaptation measures. The issue is not only to select efficient, robust and flexible adaptation portfolios but also to find equitable strategies of cost allocation among the stakeholders. Our work addresses such cost all...

The impact of climate change on the habitat suitability for large brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) was studied in a segment of the Cabriel River (Iberian Peninsula). The future flow and water temperature patterns were simulated at a daily time step with M5 models' trees (NSE of 0.78 and 0.97 respectively) for two short-term scenarios (2011-2040) under...

The impact of climate change in the suitable habitat available for the large brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) was studied in a segment of the Cabriel River (eastern Iberian Peninsula) by coupling a Témez rainfall-runoff model calibrated for the 1960-2000 period (NSE: 0.72), a River-2D hydraulic model and an ensemble of five machine learning techniques...

Conjunctive use (CU) of surface and groundwater storage and supplies is essential for integrated water management. It is also a key strategy for supporting groundwater-dependent ecosystems, and for adapting water systems to future climate and land use changes. CU has become increasingly sophisticated and integrated with other innovative and traditi...