# Manfred BorovcnikAlpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt · Institute of Statistics

Manfred Borovcnik

## About

179

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958

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Introduction

Major research: Applied Statistics; Statistics in Medicine, Ethics in Medicine; Statistics Education; New Technologies in Research and Education, E-Learning.
Based on an analysis of the Bayesian controversy in the foundations, there are investigations on a comparative study of methods for statistical inference (which has been awarded a late-breaking session at the World Statistics Congress in Hong Kong 2014), modelling as a construction principle for statistics curricula, historical studies of the emergence of stochastic concepts, investigations of conceptual links between probability and risk (and how these links may be used for education). Not least are to mention my endeavours to integrate e-learning elements and dynamic applets for learning key concepts into the academic teaching.

## Publications

Publications (179)

Content:
• An Elementary Approach to the Significance Test – Re-randomisation and p Values
• Informal Inference – an Analogy to the Medical Situation
• Informal Ways to Statistical Inference – Examples
• „Informal Inference“
• A Critical Comparison of Informal Ways to Inference and „Informal Inference“
The presentation has two main goals: To illust...

This chapter presents a twenty first century historical and philosophical perspective on probability, related to the teaching of probability. It is important to remember the historical development as it provides pointers to be taken into account in developing a modern curriculum in teaching probability at all levels. We include some elements relati...

Statistics and probability are fascinating fields, tightly interwoven with the context of the problems which have to be modelled. The authors demonstrate how investigations and experiments provide promising teaching strategies to help high-school students acquire statistical and probabilistic literacy. In the first chapter the authors put into prac...

The aim of this paper is to develop and synthesise ideas about probabilistic thinking and highlight the considerations by illustrating how the concept of probability is entrenched with the concept of risk. We use a hermeneutic way of argument, relate the ideas to the mathematical and philosophical background of probability, and illustrate our ideas...

Risk is a hot topic. There is an international trend to use examples of risk or the concept of risk in the early teaching of probability. It enriches the problems, it widens the contexts, and it motivates the students to learn probability. This paper illustrates the notion of risk as a multi-faceted concept. The diverse perceptions start with langu...

Probability is the basis for intelligent actions and decisions in the face of uncertainty. That includes statistical inference as well as considerations of reliability, risk, and decision-making. Curricula have reduced approaches with respect to the nature of probability. With easy access to computer technology, simulation has become the predominan...

Our main goal is to show that we can use classical and Bayesian statistics, including theoretical background, for introducing statistical inference in Hungarian high schools. In a first step, we will test the material we are developing with higher-level students. We introduce the concept of the project, including its theoretical background and prev...

We developed an educational programme to prepare a curricular reform in Hungary. In the framework of this project, we tested and evaluated a new curriculum design relying on combinatorial and probabilistic knowledge and skills. As opposed to inferential statistics, which is not part of secondary education, combinatorial thinking has a rich traditio...

Five pillars for teaching probability for linking different meanings, connecting probability with statistical inference, and establishing sustainable intuitions.
1. Start early and develop the ideas and concepts in a spiral way
2. Using games intelligently to induce sustainable probabilistic intuitions
3. Building Bayesian and risk thinking as e...

A new curriculum with the introduction of hypothesis testing in Hungarian secondary school education.
In Hungary, statistical hypothesis testing is not yet part of the secondary school curriculum.
There are arguments for changing this.
The purpose of this project
To develop a complete curriculum introducing hypothesis testing.
To test the suitabil...

A planned experiment in inferential statistics.
Preliminaries: historical and theoretical; Piloting: Results and consequences; Objectives and Plans.
Historical Background: Tamás Varga; Tibor Nemetz.
Theoretical foundations : Basis of the “parallel-teaching” research.
Real-life Task for Introduction to Bayes: Diagnostic Context; Interpretation of...

We address problems that arise in teaching statistics in non-statistical degree courses in statistics. The typical student reveals basic difficulties in the understanding of the key concepts. This paper describes experiences with the “project method”, motivating students with real data from the future profession. The project method generated collab...

Welcome to a special issue of SERJ.

Information in health issues is generally justified by statistical methods; decisions ideally are evidence-based and supported by probability models. To increase rationality in dealing with such information, experts advocate the methodology of empirical research, which implies complex mathematical concepts, which are rarely well understood. The foc...

Contents
1 Specificities of Applied Statistics
2 The Project Method
3 Didactic Considerations Related to the Project Method
4 Didactic Trajectory of the Projects
5 Evaluation of the Didactic Trajectory
6 Case Studies & Project Work in Applied-Statistics Seminars
7 Challenges and Benefits of Case Studies and Project Work
8 Conclusions
Collaborative...

Questions and feedback to manfred.borovcnik@aau.at. Versión española y portuguesa abajo-Versão em espanhol e português abaixo Roles of probability 1. Probability forms the basis and serves as justification for statistical inference. 2. Probability plays a key role in decision-making under uncertainty. 3. Probability is THE concept for describing un...

Versión española y portuguesa abajo-Versão em espanhol e português abaixo
Roles of probability
1. Probability forms the basis and serves as justification for statistical inference.
2. Probability plays a key role in decision-making under uncertainty.
3. Probability is THE concept for describing uncertainty.
Questions are
What are the usua...

The complexity in the concepts and the difficulties in the individual concept acquisition in statistical inference are well known. That has induced the search for new learning forms, such as the ideas of visualisation and simulation. Computer-intensive methods of the discipline of statistics have also served as incentive for didactic innovations. W...

Mit dem Ansatz der so genannten Informal Inference wird die Didaktik der Statistik wieder daran erinnert, dass es schon sehr frühzeitig Bestrebungen gegeben hat, für die statistische Beurteilung Lernwege zu finden, welche die Komplexität der Verfahren unterrichtbar machen. Mit der Rechnerkapazität von PCs eröffnet sich nämlich ein Zugang, der ledig...

In this paper, we analyse the various meanings of probability and its different applications, and we focus especially on the classical, the frequentist, and the subjectivist view. We describe the different problems of how probability can be measured in each of the approaches, and how each of them can be well justified by a mathematical theory. We a...

In Spain, curricular guidelines as well as the university-entrance tests for social-science high-school students (17–18 years old) include sampling distributions. To analyse the understanding of this concept we investigated a sample of 234 students. We administered a questionnaire to them and ask half for justifications of their answers. The questi...

In Spain, curricular guidelines as well as the university-entrance tests for social-science high-school students (17-18 years old) include sampling distributions. To analyse the understanding of this concept we investigated a sample of 234 students. We administered a questionnaire to them and ask half for justifications of their answers. The questi...

For statistics education, a key question is how to design learning paths to statistical in-ference that are elementary enough that the learners can understand the concepts and that are rich enough to develop the full complexity of statistical inference later on. There are two ways to approach this problem: One is to restrict the complexity. Informa...

The dissemination of research results is crucial to consolidate the research effort and to find synergies for further research. Research publications also influence the practice of a discipline. This applies even more when we consider the discipline of statistics education. The present work pursues two goals: First, the ideas and intentions are to...

This chapter develops fundamental aspects of risk and decision making in connection to health issues and highlights the character of statistical concepts used to describe the decision situation. The ideas and concepts are illustrated by examples from the context of medicine. Case studies that deal with the problem of risk judgement and the communic...

This chapter illustrates issues of risk and decision making in connection to health issues by case studies. Fundamental aspects of statistics in medicine are the topics of a separate twin chapter on “Risk and Decision Making – Modelling and Statistics in Medicine: Fundamental Aspects”.
The present chapter represents the ideas in the form of case st...

English translation of Contextos, analogías y tareas, que exponen el propósito de los conceptos clave de probabilidad.
Probability is and will continue to be a virtual concept. This specificity requires meta strategies that go far beyond the instruction of the mathematical details and ask for a sensible use of simulation. We suggest focussing tea...

La probabilidad es y seguirá siendo un concepto virtual. Esta especificidad requiere meta-estrategias que van mucho más allá de la instrucción de los detalles matemáticos y piden un uso sensato de la simulación. Sugerimos enfocar los esfuerzos de enseñanza en exponer explícitamente a los estudiantes al propósito del concepto de probabilidad. El pro...

Special Issue of Statistics Education Research Journal (SERJ)
Vol. 19, Issue 1
BUILDING FUTURE GENERATIONS OF STATISTICIANS
Special-Issues Editor: Manfred Borovcnik, Guest Editors: Ayşe Bilgin and Peter Howley
The central theme of the present special issue is ‘initiatives in developing future statisticians’. The main focus was laid on the surro...

First published February 2020 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

The paper is in German. Elementarisation is a legitimate didactical strategy, especially in a subject area such as inferential statistics, which is considered to be extremely difficult. Here one can also refer to Varga’s position on the didactics of mathematics and examine, which orientation results from it. For this purpose, Varga’s approach to ma...

The development of methods suitable to tackle the problem of inductive logic – how to justify arguments that generalise findings from data – has been signified by great controversies in the foundations. The controversy was not about the foundations of probability but about the justification of statistical methods: the great players have been on the...

The development of methods suitable to tackle the problem of inductive logic - how to justify arguments that generalise findings from data - has been signified by great controversies in the foundations and - later - also in statistics education. There have been several attempts to reconcile the various approaches or to simplify statistical inferenc...

La probabilidad está apoyada en conceptos teóricos, que están lejos de ser intuitivos. El primer paso es identificar los conceptos clave; el segundo es aclarar estos conceptos no sólo mediante el uso de herramientas matemáticas, ilustrando su valor en contexto o sus propiedades específicas. Nos centramos en las facetas de la probabilidad que permit...

The development of methods suitable to tackle the problem of inductive logic – how to justify arguments that generalise findings from data – has been signified by great controversies in the foundations and – later – also in statistics education. There have been several attempts to reconcile the various approaches or to simplify statistical inferenc...

Probability on the one hand is so tightly interwoven with statistical inference that occasionally it is not seen as separated from statistics. True, probability considerations allow to investigate any conclusion from data to a larger population (or, to generalise findings from data). However, probability also describes and models risky situations p...

• Current status of Statistics Education Research Journal (SERJ)
• The role and value of open access
• Competitor journals related to statistics education
• Ranking, research paradigm, and diversity of contributions
• How to get funding
• Roles for the journal
• Language policy
• Impact of submissions

Risk is the source of the conceptual development of probability. While there are many investigations and descriptions of statistical literacy, probability literacy is not well researched up to date. Probability on the one hand is so tightly interwoven with statistical inference that occasionally it is not seen as separated from statistics. True, pr...

The Future of Statistics Education Research Journal (SERJ)
The session should give an appreciation of past achievements of SERJ
We look for experience in running a journal from outside, from the editor of ASMBI an ISBIS journal, Fabrizio Ruggeri
Potential topics for discussion:
• Current status of Statistics Education Research Journal (SERJ)
• The...

This Invited Paper Session has a strong connection to an emergent special issue of SERJ on the same topic. The central theme is ‘initiatives in developing future statisticians’:
• This does not include the development of program content within tertiary education,
• It rather refers to the surrounding ‘outreach’ initiatives and supporting mechani...

The paper describes a teaching unit of four hours with talented students aged 15-18. The workshop was designed as a problem-based sequence of tasks and was intended to deal with judging dice whether they are regular or loaded. We first introduced the students to the physics of free rotations of rigid bodies to develop the physics background of roll...

Scientific production in Statistics Education in Latin American countries has grown remarkably in the last decades. This can be seen by the increasing participation of Latin American scholars in many international conferences and by their publications in international journals. Research developed in Latin America coincides with the focus of Statist...

First published May 2019 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

An vielen Stellen – in Diagnose und Behandlung – stützt sich die Medizin auf Statistiken: Abweichungen von der Norm, dem Durchschnittswert für viele Menschen, können auf mögliche Probleme hinweisen oder Startpunkt für Therapien sein. Immer treten auch Fehler ein. Fehler in der Einschätzung der Situation, aber auch nachteilige Auswirkungen von getro...

“Inferencia Informal” es un enfoque de la inferencia estadística, que se basa en métodos de remuestreo y se vincula a bootstrap como sustituto de los intervalos de confianza y a las pruebas de aleatorización como alternativa a los contrastes estadísticos. La inferencia informal, por otro lado, es una conceptualización de la inferencia estadística m...

With state initiatives to make data of general relevance publicly accessible (Open Data) and the wide availability of data which originate en passant, we have an access to data as never has been before. Public debate more and more often uses this data for “evidence-based arguments” to influence decisions in the one or the other direction. To use st...

"Informal Inference" is an approach to statistical inference based on resampling methods and links Bootstrap as replacement for confidence intervals and re-randomisation tests as alternative to statistical tests. Informal inference, on the other hand, is a conceptualisation of statistical inference by elementarising the full complexity by context t...

In Österreich findet – wie in vielen anderen Ländern auch – jährlich Anfang Januar eine Zählung von Wintervögeln statt, also von jenen Vögeln, die in Österreich über Winter bleiben. Wie genau kann eine solche „Zählung“ sein, wenn sie auf freiwilliger Beteiligung von Menschen beruht, die sich eine Stunde Zeit nehmen, Vögel zählen und dann ihr Ergebn...

Auch wenn A falsch ist, kann B wahr sein. – Diese aussagenlogische Feststellung soll als Leitsatz für das vorliegende Buch nicht in wörtlicher, sondern in metaphorischer Bedeutung den Erkenntnisgang der Mathematik zum Ausdruck bringen – und zwar in doppelter Weise. Auf dem Weg zu gesicherten Erkenntnissen sind Irrtümer und Fehler, Lücken und Unvoll...

It is expected that the papers submitted for publication reflect the diversity of research produced and conducted on statistics education in Latin American countries. It is suggested that one section in the papers elaborates on how the ideas fit into the English and international discussion and how the Latin Approach differs and why it differs and...

Acknowledgment: We are grateful to the people who acted as referees for all issues of the Statistics Education Research Journal published this year. First published November 2018 at Statistics Education Research Journal: Archives

Forthcoming IASE Conferences First published November 2018 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

First published November 2018 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

Though probability is a theoretical concept, probability models are open to an empirical validation. Either experts judge a distribution as appropriate – maybe as a worst case that can happen – or data on the phenomenon under scrutiny are analysed whether they fit to the distribution that is a candidate for modelling. Modelling, however, is made mo...

So ein Zufall! Alles ist möglich! Alles ist Zufall. Das Kausalitätsprinzip wird in der Physik – versuchsweise – durch das Zufallsprinzip ersetzt. Alle Entwicklungen – vom Big Bang bis zum atomaren Zerfall – werden durch Zufall beschrieben, nicht erklärt.
Wenn der Zufall es will, passieren Dinge, die wir dann als Koinzidenzen empfinden, als (unheiml...

Probability is highlighted by theoretical concepts, which are far from being intuitive. The first step is to identify key concepts; the second is to clarify these concepts not only using mathematical tools by illustrating either their value in context or their specific properties. We focus on facets of probability that allow for linking its various...

Probability is highlighted by theoretical concepts, which are far from being intuitive. The first step is to identify key concepts; the second step is to clarify these concepts not only using mathematical tools by illustrating either their value in context or their specific features. We focus on facets of probability that allow for linking the vari...

Chance is a view imputed on real world, which is a feature of modern life as nowadays people do no longer take it as given that their life is fundamentally uncertain. One aspect of taking control over uncertainty is entrenched with a probability view and related models. There were times and cultures that accepted uncertainty or dealt differently wi...

Description of the session Games and simulation of experiments are intended to facilitate the approach to the concepts of probability. The role of patterns in such experiments has to be clarified. Students’ perceptions about patterns and the purpose of such experiments have to integrated into the learning processes. Key aspects are the context of t...

While there is a lifestyle following the motto "no risk-no fun", humans usually try to avoid risks. We discuss experiments that show that individuals deviate from a rational approach to the risky situation with which they are confronted. However, the situations-though artificial-can be perceived differently and the preferred pattern of decision no...

Risk is something, many individuals would like to avoid. Risk is attached to the possibility of negative impact or damage in the future. Risk is entrenched with fear, hopes, with unstable and vague conceptions, and with a very vague language to conceive it. We intend to clarify the constituents of a risky situation, discuss various definitions of r...

The Statistics Education Research Journal (SERJ) is run under the auspices of the International Association for Statistical Education. In this panel discussion the Editors report on the activities of SERJ, give a brief history of the journal, the types of papers that are sought and some common problems that decrease the likelihood that a submitted...

Forthcoming IASE Conferences First published May 2018 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

First published May 2018 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

Probabilistic methods often lack an intuitive access. Probability itself is a virtual measure of uncertainty. The properties of the concepts are determined by the mathematical theory of probability. The mathematical interrelations offer an interpretation of probability as relative frequencies in repeated independent experiments. The central theorem...

Sir Ronald A. Fisher developed statistical methods alongside problems from applications. Once the students have a rough overview on diverse methods, which are useful for applied statistics, they may experience a boost in their comprehension of the scope and limitations of these methods when they try to apply them to real-world problems. At the begi...

This chapter is part of the Research Report of the Department of Statistics AAU Klagenfurt 2017-2017. The ideas exposed in it might be interesting for a wider community. It contains:
• Statistical Literacy
• What is Statistics about
• Applied Statistics on the Path to its Data-Science Future
• My Journey to the Centre of Statistics
• Views and Apho...

Research report of the department of statistics 2007-2017. This is part II of the report.
It contains the CVs of the staff, posters of our research groups and selected students that were displayed at our ten-years anniversary and our EuroBayes Master programme we had planned (contract and study programme).
In part I, the report contains welcome a...

Research report of the department of statistics 2007-2017.
The report contains welcome addresses to the ten-year anniversary, a brief history, the staff of the department, contributions on the relevance of statistics (statistical literacy, what is statistics about, applied statistics on the path to its data-science future, my journey to the centre...

Risk is a key aspect of life and probability is the mathematical tool to address risk. Our aim is to investigate how risk is embedded in probability and how probability can be used to solve problems of risk. Furthermore, we illustrate how risky situations are paradigmatic for the concept of probability, not least by the eminent role risk played for...

Die Reihe Mathematik im Unterricht stellt verschiedenartigste Aspekte für einen modernen und sinnstiftenden Mathematikunterricht in den Mittelpunkt. Dabei werden aktuelle bildungspolitische Themen ebenso diskutiert wie innermathematische und fachdidaktische Fragestellungen. In den Bänden der Reihe werden zudem Beiträge aus den verwandten Unterricht...

Acknowledgment: We are grateful to the people who acted as referees for all issues of the Statistics Education Research Journal published this year. First published November 2017 at Statistics Education Research Journal: Archives

Forthcoming IASE Conferences First published November 2017 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

First published November 2017 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

In an increasing way, analysing data reigns the world: Amazon calculates what we want to shop, Google interprets by our Internet search behaviour who we are, health care is based on statistics. Manfred Borovcnik identifies a demand for the extension of competences with respect to understanding statistics properly.

The programme of this years’ Austrian Statistics Days comprises several sessions on Multivariate Inference and Statistics and Education. The days are completed by a session on ABC and Likelihood-Free Statistics and a public lecture of Walter Schachermayer, Vienna, on ”How Probable is Randomness?”

We present didactically-inspired dynamic visualisations, which we use in our introductory courses (for mathematics students and students of other studies) in order to support comprehending the more complex concepts. Our principles in designing the applets are signified by the following ideas: i) An abstract concept of probability may be illustrated...

There is a growing interest in Statistics Education Research Journal (SERJ) by submission of papers. Besides regular papers, the journal follows the idea of special issues, which may be devoted to a specific topic such as Statistical Literacy, or which may be the result of elaborating the papers of a conference. The variety of topics illustrates th...

This is about current hot topics in running the scientific journal SERJ and about using the full potential of new ways of publishing to increase the impact and reach of the journal.

Informal inference is a term used more recently in statistics education to unify various approaches starting from simulation of probabilistic models (to illustrate their impact and to solve the problems), or using re-randomization methods to reduce the required assumptions (as done in non-parametric statistics), and going on to use bootstrap to rep...

Informal inference is a term used more recently in statistics education to unify various approaches starting from simulation of probabilistic models (to illustrate their impact and to solve the problems), or using re-randomization methods to reduce the required assumptions (as done in non-parametric statistics), and going on to use bootstrap to rep...