Maksym Chepeliev

Purdue University West Lafayette | Purdue · Center for Global Trade Analysis

This study contributes to a better understanding of synergies and trade-offs between climate mitigation and sustainable development goals, covering 17 indicators across various SDGs. Our assessment employs a multi-model framework, which includes a global computable general equilibrium model (ENVISAGE), an energy system model (KINESYS) and an atmosp...

In this study, we use a TIMES-Ukraine energy system-wide model to explore net-zero transition in Ukraine. The assessment considers the potential implications of the ongoing war in the country and analyzes how the achievement of ambitious mitigation goals could impact the indicators related to the Sustainable Development Goal on energy, SDG7 (Ensure...

Accurate global food losses and waste (FLW) quantification remains challenging owing to limited harmonized global estimates, a lack of comprehensive quantification approaches and an absence of frameworks for addressing FLW challenges. Here we compile a country-level database that assesses FLW across global value chains and quantifies the nutritiona...

While the global food system substantially contributes to environmental degradation and climate change, significant amounts of lost or wasted foods along the food supply chain actively contribute to global air pollution and related health risks. In this study, we use an environmentally-extended input-output model to quantify air pollution embedded...

This paper provides an overview of the GTAP-Power 11 Data Base, which covers 141 individual countries, 19 composite regions and 76 sectors, reporting data for five reference years – 2004, 2007, 2011, 2014 and 2017. The newly constructed database builds on the previous efforts, introducing several new features and updates. First, by extending the co...

We utilize a coupled economy–agroecology–hydrology modeling framework to capture the cascading impacts of climate change mitigation policy on agriculture and the resulting water quality cobenefits. We analyze a policy that assigns a range of United States government’s social cost of carbon estimates ($51, $76, and $152/ton of CO 2 -equivalents) to...

Climate change by its very nature epitomizes the necessity and usefulness of the globalto- local-to-global (GLG) paradigm. It is a global problem with the potential to affect local communities and ecosystems. Accumulation of local impacts and responses to climate change feeds back to regional and global systems creating feedback loops. Understandin...

Food‐security implications of the war in Ukraine are exacerbated by adverse weather events, spillover effects from the distortion of energy and fertiliser markets, and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. Estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of these channels in terms of restricting...

Food losses and waste (FLW) are at the core of secure and sustainable food systems. A consistent quantification of the FLW across food supply chains at the global level, however, remains a major challenge. In this study, we compile a comprehensive database that assesses FLW across global value chains and quantifies the nutritional and environmental...

This paper describes the construction of the GTAP Data Base, version 11. The database reconciles different data sources at a global scale for analytical use and provides time series data on value flows, volumes, and various tax instruments. GTAP version 11 has 5 reference years (2004, 2007, 2011, 2014, and 2017), distinguishes 65 sectors in each of...

With a wide range of implications for welfare, food security, land use, trade and the environment, nutrition-related policies pose complex questions that should be assessed using an approach that properly accounts for all the involved interactions. Widely used partial equilibrium models fail to properly account for the post-farmgate food value chai...

In response to the invasion of Ukraine, most OECD countries have announced punishing sanctions against Russia. In addition to targeting financial markets and service sectors, some countries have begun to impose restrictions on exports of Russia’s fossil fuels. We analyze a scenario whereby most OECD countries put major restrictions on Russia’s ener...

In response to the invasion of Ukraine, most OECD countries have announced punishing sanctions against Russia. In addition to targeting financial markets and service sectors, some countries have begun to impose restrictions on exports of Russia's fossil fuels. In this paper, we analyze a scenario whereby most OECD countries put major restrictions o...

Can countries reorient their productive capacity to become more environmentally friendly and inclusive? To investigate this question this paper uses a standard Input-Output modeling framework and data from 141 countries and regions to construct a new global dataset of employment, value-added, Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions (disaggregated into CO2 a...

According to the Global Burden of Disease study (Cohen et al., 2017), in 2015 ambient air pollutant emissions caused 4.2 million deaths and a loss of 103.1 million disability-adjusted life-years, making it the fifth-ranked global risk factor. In terms of the welfare costs of mortality and illnesses associated with outdoor air pollutant emissions, g...

The development of renewable energy sources (RES) is considered to be a key instrument in addressing climate change. However, different RES have different potential and economic feasibility depending on country-specific conditions and mitigation ambitions. Understanding the relative importance of each RES could help policymakers focus their efforts...

In this paper, we analyze the poverty and distributional impacts of different carbon pricing mechanisms consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement targets. We link a global recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model ENVISAGE with the GIDD microsimulation model and explore three levels of mitigation effort and five carbon pricing optio...

This paper provides a quantitative general equilibrium evaluation of the repeal of Britain's Corn Laws in 1846. Using a detailed input-output matrix of the British economy in 1841, we find the abolition of Britain's tariff on imported grain left overall welfare roughly unchanged as the static efficiency gains are offset by terms-of-trade losses. La...

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) implementation. We find limited impacts of the CBAM for most European Union (EU) trading partners. Ukraine is the most impacted country, with a per capita income change of -0.4% and reductions in domestic iron and steel production reaching 3.9%....

While bringing multiple benefits for the environment, achievement of the stringent global greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, like the one outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement, is associated with significant implementation costs and could impact different dimensions of human well-being, including welfare, poverty and distributional aspect...

Agricultural and food systems are contributing over 25% of global GHG emissions. Demographic changes and increasing income are expected to further push the global diet towards more meat-oriented and emission-intensive food items, as a result, agricultural GHG emissions could significantly increase in the long-run, which would make it almost impossi...

Develop a global modeling framework to analyze dairy trade patterns and the impacts of continuously evolving dairy trade policies at the detailed commodity level and apply it to the analysis of one of the many contemporary policy issues in dairy trade.

The purpose of this note is to document changes introduced to the GTAP-Power 10a database construction process in addition to the GTAP-Power build approach developed in Peters (2016). First, in Peters (2016) output of the electricity and heat generation sector in GTAP was split using electricity generation data only. We use heat generation volumes...

The recent downward trend in the international energy prices, combined with the rapid transition in the national energy mix and widespread efforts towards national energy market liberalization have challenged the mitigation potential of the global fossil-fuel subsidy reform. In this paper, we focus on 25 countries with large fossil-fuel consumption...

This paper highlights the numerous improvements to the Global Trade, Assistance, and Production (GTAP) Data Base, version 10 (also referred to as GTAP 10). The Data Base describes the world economy for 4 reference years (2004, 2007, 2011, and 2014) and distinguishes 65 sectors, up from 57 in the previous release, in each of the 141 countries/region...

In the last two years, the United States has reversed the post-World War II trend toward the lowering of trade barriers and a commitment towards multilateral free trade. Citing a need to “level the playing field” and hold trading partners accountable to their commitments, the current Administration has moved towards a more protectionist and perhaps...

A hallmark of the Trump Administration has been to reverse the post-World War II consensus on lowering of trade barriers and a commitment towards multilateral free trade, towards a more protectionist and perhaps mercantilist position vis-à-vis trade policy. One of the Administration’s first actions in this regard was the decision to leave the Trans...

In this paper, we focus on 25 countries with large fossil-fuel consumption subsidies and estimate the impacts of global fossil-fuel subsidy reform on achieving country-specific emissions reductions targets defined by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). We provide an assessment of these policies under different assumptions about future intern...

In this paper, we focus on 25 countries with large fossil-fuel consumption subsidies and estimate the impacts of global fossil-fuel subsidy reform on achieving country-specific emissions reductions targets defined by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). We provide an assessment of these policies under different assumptions about future intern...

In this presentation we provide a quantitative assessment of the global fossil-fuel subsidies reform and discuss how such policy measures can contribute towards meeting Paris Agreement targets in selected countries.

In this presentation we provide a quantitative assessment of the global fossil fuel subsidies reform and discuss how these policies can help to achieve Paris Agreement goals for selected countries.

In this presentation we discuss an updated approach to the agricultural production targeting (APT) in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base. Using improved agricultural data we explore the impacts of climate change on agriculture in a dynamic computable general equilibrium modelling framework.

In this presentation we explore the pathways for transition towards high share of renewables in Ukraine, which faces significant economic and environmental challenges. We use the soft-linkage of the energy system TIMES-Ukraine and Ukrainian computable general equilibrium models, which allows us to estimate an economy wide and environmental implicat...

The adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement has become a symbolic decision for the world community. It will have a significant impact on the development of world economy and energy as well as particular countries since it aims to keep the average temperature rise on the planet well below 2°С (compared to the pre-industrial levels). To make it happe...

The adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement has become a symbolic decision for the world community. It will have a significant impact on the development of world economy and energy as well as particular countries since it aims to keep the average temperature rise on the planet well below 2°С (compared to the pre-industrial levels). To make it happe...

The agricultural sector plays a central role in the climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. As one of the key global emitters of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), much effort has to be put in order to reduce its carbon footprint (Smith el al., 2014). At the same time, according to many studies, it is arguably the most vulnerable sector to face...

In this chapter, we provide an assessment of low-emission development scenarios for the Ukrainian economy, which faces significant economic and environmental challenges. We use the soft-linkage of the TIMES-Ukraine and Ukrainian computable general equilibrium models, which allows us to estimate an economy wide implications of long-term energy polic...

In this chapter, we provide an assessment of low-emission development scenarios for the Ukrainian economy, which faces significant economic and environmental challenges. We use the soft-linkage of the TIMES-Ukraine and Ukrainian computable general equilibrium models, which allows us to estimate an economy wide implications of long-term energy polic...

In this paper, we apply a multistep framework to analyze two global energy policy scenarios. First one includes elimination of pre-tax fossil-fuel consumption subsidies. Second scenario, in addition to the first one, includes imposition of the compensatory air pollution taxes, which correspond to the local air pollution externalities (post-tax subs...

In this study we apply recent developments in planetary boundaries estimates to quantify the sustainability limits of critical natural capital, which stock has to be preserved in terms of Strong Sustainability (SS) concept. Based on different scenarios of population change, economic growth and technological change by countries we develop baseline e...

Our study contributes to the literature for two key issues. First, it provides the statistical grounding for differences in substitution elasticities, in terms of regions, sectors, time periods, and estimation procedures. This permits the derivation of tailored empirical input measures, which is beneficial for further modelling applications and sen...

Presentation explores consequences of the global fossil-fuel subsidies reform and air pollution taxation. It also provides assessment of the health and environmental co-benefits of such policies.

The study “Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050” was carried out in 2016-2017 by the State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine with the support of the Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine and in cooperation with civil society organizations, public aut...

Foreign trade is today one of the main factors of macroeconomic stability in Ukraine. The impact of net export on the dynamics of the GDP in Ukraine is one of the strongest in the world. As some specific preferences in trade with Ukraine have come into effect since May 15, 2014, a number of potential opportunities to increase Ukrainian exports into...

A soft-linking approach is applied for TIMES-Ukraine and Ukrainian CGE model to access the sustainable energy development paths for Ukraine.

Study represents economic impact assessment of different carbon reduction policies implication in Ukraine, including carbon taxes and emission trading scheme. Several revenue redistribution options and assumptions on technological change are considered. As a modelling framework a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is adopted. This a...

Study represents economic impact assessment of different carbon reduction policies implication in Ukraine, including carbon taxes and emission trading scheme. Several revenue redistribution options and assumptions on technological change are considered. As a modelling framework a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is adopted. This a...

Study represents economic impact assessment of different carbon reduction policies implication in Ukraine, including carbon taxes and emission trading scheme. Several revenue redistribution options and assumptions on technological change are considered. As a modelling framework a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is adopted. This a...

The paper presents econometric estimation of the capital-labor substitution elasticities for 10 economic activities based on the 2003-2009 data. Elasticities are estimated in the context of computable general equilibrium methodology, particularly, based on the constant elasticity of substitution production functions and cost minimization assumption...

Despite intensive development and implementation of government programs and sector-specific energy policies together with consideration of subsidies elimination as a strategic coal industry priority, governmental grants volumes for this economic activity are growing from year to year. While in 2003 Government cost covering support for coal industry...