Majid Einian

Monetary and Banking Research Institute | MBRI · Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies Studies

This study extends the literature by analyzing the effects of energy sanctions on the black-market premium on the Iranian Rial – U.S. dollar exchange rate. Using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model from 1959to 2017, we find that falling oil revenues as a result of sanctions have an increasing impact on the black-market premium.

The COVID-19 impact on global health and economic system has been profound and unseen since the Spanish flu of 1918-19. Iran is one of the countries that has been severely affected partly because of slow responses to the crisis, ill-preparedness of the health system, and fragile health infrastructure and shortage of protective equipment due to econ...

In contrast to the findings of simple rational expectations permanent income hypothesis models, empirical studies show that income changes can help predict consumption change. This is dubbed as excess sensitivity in the macroeconomic literature. We use Iranian household data to investigate the excess sensitivity using civil servant status as a prox...

In a rational expectation utility optimization model, the consumption profile is smoothed over time and, under some simplifying assumptions, it equals a constant fraction of total lifetime income. For this result to hold, the consumer must be able to transfer income from one period to another. Otherwise, the consumer is under liquidity constraints....

There is a lot of evidence on the relationship between business cycles and financial. We study the credit cycles of the Iranian Economy and their relationship with the business cycles. The literature suggests using various indicators for credit cycles. We use the ratio of banking loan to the private sector to potential nominal GDP as the indicator...

Poverty maps are shown to be of the best tools in economic policy design in poverty alleviation programs. This study uses small area estimation method to calculate the poverty headcount ratio for rural and urban areas of 397 counties of Iran. We use the "Household Expenditures and Income Survey" (HEIS) 2014 by "Statistical Center of Iran" (SCI), an...

بر اساس جستجو در منابع داده‌ای موجود در ایران می‌توان فهرست زیر را به عنوان بانک‌های اطلاعاتی مرتبط با عرضه و تقاضای منابع مالی معرفی کرد: داده‌های سطح خرد بنگاه‌ها از طریق شرکت‌های فهرست شده شامل شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، چهارصد شرکت برتر و سبد اعتباری برخی بانک‌های کشور در دسترس هستند. «طرح آمارگیری از کارگاه‌های صنعتی کشور...

بخش‌های مختلف اقتصاد ایران و صنایع مختلف، در دوره‌های رونق و رکود، وضعیت گاه متفاوتی نشان می‌دهند. در رکود اخیر، بخش خدمات به شدت بخش‌های صنایع و معادن و نفت کاهش تولید نداشته است و بجز بازرگانی، بقیه بخش‌های خدمات از تمام ظرفیت خود استفاده می‌کنند. بررسی جایگاه صنایع در زنجیره تولید و همچنین توالی زمانی چرخه‌های تجاری در آن‌ها نشان می دهد صنایعی د...

Although initially originated as a totally empirical relationship to explain the volume of trade between two partners, gravity equation has been the focus of several theoretic models that try to explain it. Specialization models are of great importance in providing a solid theoretic ground for gravity equation in bilateral trade. Some research pape...

In this report we will thoroughly study the status of household/individual financial inclusion in Islamic Republic of Iran. Reviewing the different data sources shows that Iran’s banking system has grown quantitatively enough to serve the financial needs of Iranian households. Yet, the quality remains not satisfactory. Savings accounts in formal fi...

یکی از وظایف اصلی بانک مرکزی، مدیریت نظام‌های پرداخت و همچنین پول نقد در گردش است. چرا که عرضه‌ی ناکافی اسکناس و مسکوک موجب اخلال در نظام مبادلات اقتصادی مردم شده و آثار نامطلوب اقتصادی به همراه خواهد داشت. لذا برای مدیریت صحیح پول نقد، بانک مرکزی نیازمند است تا پیش‌بینی دقیقی از میزان تقاضای مردم برای پول نقد در اختیار داشته باشد. در این مقاله پس...

In this paper we first present the Change Point Problems in Statistical Process Control. Then we focus on the special case of abrupt shift in mean. A very appropriate method for this problem is the generalized likelihood ratio test statistics introduced by Hawkins, Qui and Kang named as Changepoint Method. As one can see the flaw of this method is...