Mabel C. MarulandaRabdan Academy · BCM/IEM
Mabel C. Marulanda
Doctor of Engineering
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51
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Publications
Publications (51)
The objective of the holistic risk assessment is to evaluate risk from a comprehensive perspective, integrating physical risk, or potential physical damage, linked to the happening of hazard events and socio-economic and environmental factors, non-hazard-dependent. This approach seeks to capture how these latter have an incidence on physical risk,...
This paper presents a methodological approach for the quantification of climate-related disaster risk and its use within decision-making processes to support adaptation, based on extended catastrophe modeling theory to incorporate deep uncertainty through imprecise, non-stationary, probability metrics. In this method, thousands of weather simulatio...
From a macroeconomic perspective, the occurrence of disasters, especially high-impact events, can lead to financial stress in a country due to the sudden high demand for resources to restore affected exposed assets. Disaster risk is a sovereign risk and implies a non-explicit contingent liability that, in many cases, has a major impact on fiscal su...
Quite frequently, catastrophes impact populated areas of the world, and hence the need for proper risk evaluations that support mitigation and management processes. Because of the uncertain nature of extreme natural hazards and lack of data, forecasts of the potential damage and losses before the event happens are needed. Catastrophe (CAT) models b...
Risk identification is the first step on a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy, and nowadays, when new open-source tools to conduct those analyses are becoming widely available, the interest and need to increase their transparency has increased. Catastrophic risk due to natural hazards should be considered in a prospective way quantifyi...
Evaluar el riesgo debido a la pandemia Covid-19, a diferencia de otras amenazas, no es una actividad limitada a la fase previa a la reducción del riesgo sino un proceso simultáneo, permanente y que debe tener en cuenta la retroalimentación de las decisiones que se estén implementando durante la prevención/reducción del riesgo y el manejo de la emer...
Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that favour or facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas and is usually related to a set of factors of fragility, suscep...
Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas, and is usually related to a set of fragilities, susceptibilities, and is...
El Atlas tiene como objetivo dar a conocer diversos estudios y avances en relación con la evaluación de las diferentes amenazas de origen natural y tecnológico, desarrollados por entidades públicas y privadas en el país; así como también dar a conocer resultados de la evaluación probabilista del riesgo para diferentes amenazas, basados en métricas...
Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas, and is usually related to a set of fragilities, susceptibilities, and is...
A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales, Colombia, considering assets of different types. The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network, and the second type includes public and private buildings. This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that...
This paper discusses the data and compute challenges of the global collaboration producing the UNISDR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. The assessment produces estimates – such as the “Probable Maximum Loss” – of the annual disaster losses due to natural hazards. The data is produced by multi-disciplinary teams in different organ...
Understanding and evaluating disaster risk due to natural hazard events such as earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. The use of models for earthquake risk evaluation allows obtaining outputs such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probabl...
The risk due to natural hazards is usually assessed in physical terms by estimating the losses they may cause. Nevertheless, the risk assessment can involve other aspects like the lack of economic and social development, management deficiencies and inability of the society to respond and recover in case of a hazard event. In this chapter, the case...
The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance...
Understanding and evaluating disaster risk due to natural hazard events such as earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. The use of models for earthquake risk evaluation allows obtaining outputs such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probabl...
The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance...
In the framework of the Global Assessment Report of the United Nations for 2013, for the first time a probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis was conducted at global level and as risk indicators average annual losses and probable maximum losses were obtained. For the calculation of the λ and β parameters a smoothing process of seismicity was...
: Understanding disaster risk due to hazard events creates powerful incentives to develop planning options and tools to reduce and finance potential damages. This paper describes how probabilistic metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, calculated with catastrophe risk models, are used for...
A manual on concept, methodology, and tools in the framework of the FP7 MOVE Project (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe) European Commission
Analysis of small disasters, which usually are a result of climate variability and change, illustrates that they increase difficulties for local development, frequently affecting livelihoods of poor people, perpetuating their level of poverty and human insecurity, and that they entail country's development problem. Contrary to extreme events, they...
Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. In the past, the concept of risk has been defined in many cases in a fragmentary way, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. A framework and a...
Author(s) Charlotte Vinchon (BRGM), Martha-Liliana Carreño (CIMNE), Diana Maria Contreras-Mojica (Z-GIS), Stefan Kienberger (Z_GIS), Stefan Schneiderbauer (EURAC), David Alexander (GRF), Alex H. Barbat (CIMNE), Omar D. Cardona (CIMNE), Bernd Decker (RC), Unni Eidsvig (NGI), Maria Papathoma-Köhle (UNIVIE), Roberto Miniati (UNIFI), Sylvia Pratzler-Wa...
Small disasters are usually the product of climate variability and climate change. Analysis of them illustrates that they increase difficulties for local development-frequently affecting the livelihoods of poor people and perpetuating their level of poverty and human insecurity-and entail challenges for a country's development. In contrast to extre...
A specific catastrophic risk model has been developed to evaluate, building by building, the probabilistic losses and pure premiums of different portfolios, taking into account the seismic microzonation of cities. Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning...
The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could ex...
El riesgo financiero que se deriva de los desastres potenciales que puede sufrir una ciudad, una región o un país significa una obligación o pasivo contingente no explícito que puede afectar, desde el punto de vista macroeconómico, la sostenibilidad fiscal de los gobiernos.
La necesidad de recursos económicos para la atención de emergencias, la reh...
The most relevant seismic vulnerability and risk analysis methods are discussed and compared in this article using, as a pilot urban area, the city of Barcelona, Spain, where risk studies have been carried out over the last 15 years in the framework of different research projects. Most of the buildings in Barcelona, which have unreinforced masonry...
Small disasters contrary to the extreme and extraordinary events are very often not visible at the national level and their effects are not relevant from a macro-economic point of view. They usually affect the livelihoods of poor people in rural areas and small municipalities, perpetuating their level of poverty and human insecurity as factors of s...
The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures disaster country risk from a macroeconomic and financial perspective, according to possible future catastrophic events. The DDI captures the relationship between the demand for contingent resources to cover the maximum probable losses and the public sector's economic resilience; that is, the availability of...
The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño etal., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the
main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the e...
El desastre y el riesgo son problemas sociales, económicos y ambientales ligados a procesos de acumulación de vulnerabilidades, que a su vez son producto de modelos de crecimiento no sostenibles, es decir, los desastres son problemas de desarrollo o riesgos no manejados y, por lo tanto, acciones de identificación y reducción de riesgos, respuesta a...
The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures disaster country risk from a macroeconomic and financial perspective, according to possible future catastrophic events. The DDI captures the relationship between the demand for contingent resources to cover the maximum probable losses and the public sector's economic resilience; that is, the availability of...
Analysis of small disasters illustrates how these frequent events, usually as result of the climate variability, increase difficulties for the local development and entail a serious problemfor the development of a country as a whole. These disasters, contrary to the extreme and extraordinary events, are not visible at the national level very often...
The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures country risk from a macroeconomic and financial perspective, according to possible catastrophic events. The DDI captures the relationship between the demand for contingent resources to cover the maximum probable losses and the public sector's economic resilience; that is, the availability of internal and ex...
Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with risk, including allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce those potential damages and safeguard development. A specific catastrophic risk model has been develop...
The present work constitutes an approach to the seismic protection of cable-stayed bridges including the incorporation of fluid viscous dampers as additional energy dissipation devices. The idea of the authors is to provide an up-to-date vision of the problem taking into account that long-period structures such as those proposed here, need to be ad...
En este artículo se desarrolla un método y una herramienta computacional orientada a apoyar la evaluación de daños y de la seguridad de los edificios después de sismos fuertes. Los datos de entrada del programa de computador corresponden a información subjetiva e incompleta del estado del edificio, obtenida por profesionales posiblemente inexpertos...
Este informe presenta dos estudios que en conjunto aportan elementos fundamentales y necesarios para la formulación y diseño de las alternativas más eficientes de protección financiera para el Estado colombiano, con el fin de pre-asignar recursos y utilizar mecanismos financieros frente a los pasivos contingentes por desastre. Dichos estudios aport...
Esta actividad implicó tres frentes de trabajo claramente diferenciados, con el fin de estimar loscostos que ha tenido y podría llegar a tener el Estado en términos de atención, rehabilitación y reconstrucción a consecuencia de desastres históricos y factibles en el futuro a nivel nacional como subnacional. El primer frente correspondió a la evalua...
Projects
Projects (3)
Establecer las bases para la formulación de una propuesta de la responsabilidad del Estado Colombiano, en relación con la gestión del riesgo, y en particular en las fases ex post en caso de desastre.
El Atlas tiene como objetivo dar a conocer diversos estudios y avances en relación con la evaluación de las diferentes amenazas de origen natural y tecnológico, desarrollados por entidades públicas y privadas en el país; así como también dar a conocer resultados de la evaluación probabilista del riesgo para diferentes amenazas, basados en métricas del riesgo apropiadas para la toma de decisiones.
Se presentan mapas de amenaza sísmica, inundación, tsunami, ciclones tropicales, incendios forestales, sequía y movimientos en masa a nivel nacional. A nivel departamental se presentan perfiles de riesgo multi-amenaza con mapas de la pérdida anual esperada para representar el riesgo físico, y los resultados del índice integral del riesgo de desastres para dar cuenta del impacto potencial, teniendo en cuenta factores de agravamiento asociados con la fragilidad socioeconómica y la falta de resiliencia a nivel municipal.
The results of this project and the associated publication inspired and were the base to develop the GAR Atlas 2017: Unveiling Global Disaster Risk (Global Assessment Report for Disaster Risk Reduction of United Nations): https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/53086
