Maarten van Rooij

De Nederlandsche Bank | DNB · Economic Research and Policy

Women are less financially literate than men, and it has been difficult to determine whether this gap reflects a lack of knowledge or, rather, a lack of confidence. To address this important research question, we designed two survey modules that enable us to calculate the extent to which confidence matters for both financial literacy and behavior....

This paper surveys what we have learned on financial literacy and its relation to financial behavior from data collected in the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) Household Survey, a project done in collaboration with academics. A pioneering survey fielded in 2005 included an extensive set of financial literacy questions and questions that can serve as instr...

We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely est...

We provide new evidence on the level and probability distribution of consumers’ long-term expectations of inflation in the euro area and the Netherlands, using a new monthly representative Dutch survey before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that consumers’ expectations of euro area and Dutch inflation 10 years ahead have not been well anc...

Between 2004 and 2016, we elicited individuals’ subjective expectations of stock market returns in a Dutch internet panel at bi-annual intervals. In this paper, we develop a panel data model with a finite mixture of expectation types who differ in how they use past stock market returns to form current stock market expectations. The model allows for...

We measure wealth effects on consumption using a novel research design: responses to direct survey questions asking how much a household would change consumption in response to unexpected (positive and negative) shocks to own home value. The average wealth effect is in the 2-5% range, in line with econometric estimates that associate changes in hou...

Using survey data from a representative sample of Dutch households, we estimate the strength of precautionary saving by eliciting subjective expectations on future consumption. Expected consumption risk is positively correlated with self-employment and income risk, and negatively with age. We insert these subjective expectations (rather than consum...

Using micro data from the 2015 Dutch CentERpanel, we examine whether trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) influences individuals’ expectations and uncertainty about future inflation, and whether it anchors inflation expectations. We find that higher trust in the ECB lowers inflation expectations on average, and significantly reduces uncertainty...

Using a specifically designed survey, we investigate the role of the social network in shaping workers’ retirement preferences. We find that the preferred retirement age is influenced by the advice and retirement decisions of coworkers, family, and friends. Workers value in particular the advice of their spouse and children and take their personal...

We use the responses of a representative sample of Dutch households to survey questions that ask how much their consumption would change in response to unexpected, transitory income shocks (positive or negative). The questionnaire also distinguishes between relatively small income changes (a one-month increase or drop in income), and relatively lar...

According to some economists, central banks should use ‘helicopter money’ to boost inflation (expectations). Based on a survey among Dutch households, we examine whether respondents would spend the money received via such a transfer. Our results show that respondents expect to spend about 30% of the transfer and that helicopter money would hardly a...

Several national surveys aim to elicit consumers’ inflation expectations. Median expectations tend to track objective inflation estimates over time, although responses display large dispersion. Medians also tend to differ between surveys, possibly reflecting survey design differences. Using a nationally representative Dutch sample, we evaluate the...

Based on annual household surveys between 2011 and 2014 and additional evidence from a customized survey in 2013, we document that a sizable group of homeowners in the Netherlands has a rosy picture of the value of their house. Even homeowners who are arguably well informed tend to overestimate the value of their house. Multivariate regression anal...

We document strikingly similar gender differences in financial literacy across countries. When asked to answer questions that measure knowledge of basic financial concepts, women are less likely than men to answer correctly and more likely to indicate that they do not know the answer. Both young and old women show low levels of financial literacy....

A limited understanding of mortgage contracts and the risks involved may have contributed to the outbreak of the financial crisis. We developed a special questionnaire relating mortgage loan decisions to financial knowledge and financial advice. Our results demonstrate that homeowners appear to be well aware of mortgage risks. Large loans relative...

According to some economists, central banks should use 'helicopter money' (monetary financing of government expenditure or transfers to households) to boost inflation (expectations). Based on a survey among Dutch households, we examine whether respondents intend to spend the money received via such a transfer. Our findings suggest that only a small...

Using survey data from a representative sample of Dutch households, we estimate the strength of the precautionary saving motive by eliciting subjective expectations on future consumption. We find that expected consumption risk is higher for the young and the self-employed, and is correlated positively with income risk. We insert these subjective ex...

In a large number of decisions, the option that does not require a specific action such as filling in a form is chosen frequently. It is a stylized fact that opt-in or opt-out designs for otherwise identical choices lead to vastly different outcomes. Choice options are chosen more frequently simply because they are the no-action alternative or defa...

Based on annual household surveys between 2003 and 2012, we show that owners have a rosy picture of their current house value and hold optimistic views on the historical and expected change in house value compared to general price trends. Optimism is both driven by loss aversion and an endowment effect as overestimation of the house value is positi...

In this study, we gauge the impact of social interactions on individual retirement preferences. A survey including self-assessments and vignette questions shows that individual preferences are affected by preferences and actual retirement behavior of the social environment. Retirement from paid work depends on the retirement age of relatives, frien...

We document strikingly similar gender differences in financial literacy across countries. When asked to answer questions that measure knowledge of basic financial concepts, women are less likely than men to answer correctly and more likely to indicate that they do not know the answer. In addition, women give themselves lower scores on financial lit...

Housing markets have a large impact on the macro economy. The recovery of house price declines is usually slow, as transactions decline in a slump. In this paper we present new evidence of list price dynamics in up and down markets, using a novel dataset on actual list prices in the Dutch housing market. We study the years 2006-2010 covering a boom...

This study investigates whether individual choices in the pension domain are vulnerable to the way alternatives are communicated to respondents. The analysis is based on a set of hypothetical questions posed in the DNB Household Survey as well as in the RAND American Life Panel on pension premium contributions and pension savings investment profile...

We present new evidence on financial literacy and retirement preparation in the Netherlands based on two surveys conducted before and after the onset of the financial crisis. We document that while financial knowledge did not increase from 2005 to 2010, in 2010 significantly more individuals report having thought about their retirement. Using infor...

The complexity of financial decisions that households now face has increased to unprecedented levels. At the same time, households seem to lack the financial knowledge to cope with these decisions, including how to save and invest adequately for retirement. In this paper, we examine the relationship between financial knowledge and retirement planni...

There is ample empirical evidence documenting widespread financial illiteracy and limited pension knowledge. At the same time, the distribution of wealth is widely dispersed and many workers arrive on the verge of retirement with few or no personal assets. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between financial literacy and household net w...

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a stud...

We present new evidence on financial literacy and retirement preparation in the Netherlands based on two surveys conducted before and after the onset of the financial crisis. We document that while financial knowledge did not increase from 2005 to 2010, significantly more individuals planned for their retirement in 2010. At the same time, employees...

Individuals are increasingly put in charge of their financial security after retirement. Moreover, the supply of complex financial products has increased considerably over the years. However, we still have little or no information about whether individuals have the financial knowledge and skills to navigate this new financial environment. To better...

This paper uses a large dataset, covering more than 70% of the Dutch housing market, to analyze the relationship between market thinness, price setting behavior and time to sell. Our findings confirm the typical result that overpricing increases the time on market. In addition, we find evidence of quicker list price reductions suggesting that overp...

Market valuation is becoming more and more popular, both in accounting and regulation, as well as in academic circles. For pension funds and their participants, the knowledge that market-valued pension liabilities can indeed be transferred to a third party, if necessary, is a great virtue. Using a simulation model, this paper demonstrates the impli...

This paper reports on the findings of a survey among Dutch households (as part of the DNB Household Survey in 2003) about many aspects (expectations, concerns, attitude and preferences) of their pensions and the old-age-arrangements in the Netherlands. We explore whether the outcomes are related to specific financial and non-financial household or...

The default option in individual decision making has proved to be a major attractor in a large number of situations, but we still have little information on the reasons why decision makers so often stick to the default choice. We have devised a new module for the Dutch DNB Household Survey to learn about default behavior and to discriminate between...

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate these puzzles, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports on findings from a...

Individuals are increasingly put in charge of their financial security after retirement. Moreover, the supply of complex financial products has increased considerably over the years. However, we still have little or no information about whether individuals have the financial knowledge and skills to navigate this new financial environment. To better...

Individuals are increasingly put in charge of their financial security after retirement. Moreover, the supply of complex financial products has increased considerably over the years. However, we still have little or no information about whether individuals have the financial knowledge and skills to navigate this new financial environment. To better...

More than 90% of employees in the Netherlands compulsorily accrue pensions via their employer. Experiences abroad, supplemented by empirical research among Dutch households, suggest that, without this automatism, large groups of employees would build up much less pension. Procrastination, self-control problems, and limited financial knowledge and s...

This paper analysis the results of a survey on qualitative and quantitative perceptions and expectations of past, current and future macroeconomic developments among a representative household panel (DNB Household Survey). Perceptions of economic growth and inflation show a large dispersion. For the median respondents, however, the quantitative per...

This paper presents new evidence for the Netherlands on pension preferences and investor autonomy in the pension domain using a representative survey of about 1000 Dutch citizens. Our main conclusions are the following. Risk aversion is domain dependent and highest in the pension domain. The vast majority of respondents favours the currently domina...

This study presents a pension model that is representative for the Dutch situation and shows the consequences of shocks and policy decisions. Starting point is a defined benefit pension system, based on the average lifetime wage, where only a nominal pension is guaranteed, but where the pension fund has the ambition to increase the pension with wag...

This study presents a pension model geared to the typical pension contract in the Netherlands. It is based on a defined benefit/average earnings pension system. Nominal benefits are guaranteed and indexation is intended. The model provides a framework for analysing adjustments to such factors as the asset mix, retirement age, returns and the method...

This paper presents an analysis of the financial behaviour of Dutch households on the basis of the DNB Household Survey. The results of this survey provide insight into the backgrounds and consequences of the persistent rise of household debt. The increase in mortgage debt is related to mortgage equity withdrawal. The financial vulnerability of hou...

An empirical investigation of the relationship between market share or concentration and return on equity or assets provides evidence for the existence of a profit-structure relationship in the European banking sector. Testing several market-power and efficient-structure theories reveals that X-efficiency is the crucial factor explaining the profit...

This report analyses the portfolio behaviour of Dutch households. The study is partly based on information from a broad survey commissioned by the Nederlandsche Bank, held in March of this year. The investigation shows that risk bearing elements are becoming more and more important in households assets. Hence, Dutch consumers have become much more...

Recent studies argue that the spread-adjusted Taylor rule (STR), which includes a response to the credit spread, replicates monetary policy in the United State. We show (1) STR is a theoretically optimal monetary policy under heterogeneous loan interest rate contracts in both discretionay and commitment monetary policies, (2) however, the optimal r...

In this paper we discuss whether the introduction of the euro may cause price changes. Besides a critical survey of the theoretical arguments supporting price effects, we discuss the empirical evidence on price effects obtained from comparable events. Neither the theoretical arguments nor the empirical findings convincingly support the view that th...

This report reviews Thomas J. Sargents essay 'The Conquest of American Inflation' (1999). Sargent searches for a model which can explain postwar US inflation and which may shed light on the dynamic forces which drive this pattern. Following Sargent, the conquest of US inflation is due to a subtle dynamic interaction of adaptive expectations, imperf...

This report presents leading indicators of real gdp-growth for the United States, Japan and 7 EU member countries. These indicators make use of business cycle indicators developed at the Bank, together with information contained in financial and monetary variables like the yieldcurve, the money stock and share prices. The study shows that the forec...

This research memorandum analyses the results of a survey among mortgage owners by order of the Nederlandsche Bank. The questionnaire considers spending financed by taking out second mortgages and expectations about future developments on the housing and mortgage market and the tax relief of mortgage interest payments. The survey shows that the boo...

Against the background of past bank merger activities the present overview discusses the recent empirical literature on bank mergers, banking efficiency and the existence of scale and product mix economies for banks. Previous mainly US-based bank cost studies generally reveal that only minor cost reductions can be achieved by aiming at a scale effi...

The present paper uses a panel-data estimation technique to combine the time series for individual countries--Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. The authors postulated the response of central banks in these countries to inflation, economic growth, and current acc...

This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political auton...

For various reasons foreign direct investment, domestic investment and international trade are closely related. The aim of this study is to gain insights in the theoretical explanations and empirical findings for the effects on inward and outward foreign direct investment on domestic investment and trade flows. The relevance of research on the sect...

ABSTRACT Bank efficiency and implications of bank mergers M.C.J. van Rooij This report contains a survey of empirical literature on bank efficiency and implications of bank

This thesis provides empirical evidence on financial skills and the relation with household financial decision-making based upon specially designed questions for the DNB Household Survey (DHS). The majority of the respondents has some grasp of concepts such as interest compounding, inflation, and the time value of money. However, very few go beyond...