M. Termansen

• Professor at University of Copenhagen

Agri-environmental schemes (AES), a subtype of payments for ecosystem services (PES), aim to address Europe’s environmental and climate objectives by incentivising farmers to maintain or shift to farming practices that deliver additional ecosystem services (ES). We develop a theory of change (ToC) for AES, reviewing nine European case studies at di...

Backed by the Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 and 2030, numerous ‘Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystem Services’ (MAES) projects have been completed in recent years in the member states of the European Union, with substantial results and insights accumulated. The experience from the different approaches is a valuable source of information for developi...

Backed by the Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 and 2030, numerous 'Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystem Ser-vices' (MAES) projects have been completed in recent years in the member states of the European Union, with substantial results and insights accumulated. The experience from the different approaches is a valuable source of information for develop...

The Best Practice Book from the EFFECT project is a compendium that shows insights about Agri-Environmental Schemes (AES) in Europe. EFFECT has dug deep into the world of AES, by looking at how these plans perform, what makes them work economically, and if farmers find them acceptable. It has studied nine real-life cases across Europe to learn valu...

The Values Assessment (VA) of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services shows that while a wide range of valuation methods exist to include nature's values in diverse decision-making contexts, uptake of these methods remains limited. Building on the VA, this paper reviews five critical steps in the evaluat...

Farmers’ decisions to adopt new technology or measures for agricultural production processes are crucial for adapting to climate change. Meanwhile, risk preference has received great attention over the years in agriculture-related studies as it has been identified as a strong driver for agricultural production decisions. However, empirical studies...

Twenty-five years since foundational publications on valuing ecosystem services for human well-being1,2, addressing the global biodiversity crisis³ still implies confronting barriers to incorporating nature’s diverse values into decision-making. These barriers include powerful interests supported by current norms and legal rules such as property ri...

Economic experiments have emerged as a powerful tool for agricultural policy evaluations. In this perspective, we argue that involving stakeholders in the design of economic experiments is critical to satisfy mandates for evidence-based policies and encourage policymakers' usage of experimental results. To identify advantages and disadvantages of i...

In many developing countries, lack of access to water and its unsustainable use and adverse health impacts are important policy issues. The challenge of improving water services in developing countries is not only limited to the provision of new connections for non-piped-source-dependent households but also to improving the service level for the al...

Growing evidence of anthropogenic climate change suggests marked changes in agricultural ecosystems and crop suitability across the globe. Northern Europe is primarily predicted to see beneficial impacts through crop shifts towards the North of the region. However, studies that quantify the magnitude of climate induced past shifts and the likely fu...

Implementation of effective policy instruments to reduce emissions from non-point agricultural sources has been challenging. Mussel farming has the potential to mitigate diffuse nitrogen losses from agricultural production, and a Water Quality Trading Market (WQTM) between agricultural and mussel farmers could potentially be an efficient mechanism....

This is the final text version of Chapter 1. A laid-out version of the full assessment report will be made available in the coming months.

Eco‐schemes are set to play an important role in the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) post‐2022 for the delivery of environmental and climate benefits and enhanced animal welfare. This article surveys current plans for the design of eco‐schemes in fifteen European Union Member States. The number of eco‐scheme measures to be offered...

This article highlights some key challenges and trade‐offs with which national policy designers have to contend in devising national eco‐schemes for agriculture. We show that policy designers operate in a narrow design space which is constrained by various political and legal requirements. One key challenge is to design a reward system that allows...

Markets in pollution permits for managing environmental quality have been advocated by economists since early 1970s as a mechanism that can deliver pollution reduction targets at lower cost to regulated entities than traditional uniform command-and control approaches. This study explores whether a ‘smart market’ cap-and-trade scheme between non-poi...

The evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of Payments for ecosystem services (PES) in fostering positive environmental outcomes has been central to the scientific debate on their implementation. PES cost-effectiveness can be affected by a myriad of environmental, institutional and socio-economic factors operating at different spatial and temporal sc...

This study proposes an environmental identity economics theory that can improve our understanding of pro-environmental behaviour. We test the potential of the theory by analysing farmers’ decisions to invest in renewable energy production using a hybrid choice model. Our findings illustrate that farmers with a strong environmental identity require...

We believe that approaches to landscape modification should explicitly include farmers, given their understanding of landscape management practices, and consider climate change, so that the landscapes are designed for future environmental conditions. Climate change is an existential threat to farmers and current patterns of arable agriculture, lead...

This study aims to understand the economic and bio-physical conditions under which mussel farming is a cost-effective mitigation measure to improve water quality related to excess nitrogen in fjords and coastal areas. We setup a mixed-integer optimization model including every farm in three agricultural catchments surrounding Limfjorden, the larges...

Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and severe fluvial flood events in Northern Europe. Nature Based Solutions are increasingly recognised as a natural insurance against flood risks in vulnerable areas. This requires collaboration at landscape scale between providers and beneficiaries of flood control. In particular, mechanisms to i...

This paper focuses on the potential use of insurance as a climate change adaptation mechanism in agriculture. We analyse the attractiveness of a climate risk insurance scheme and the choices farmers face between adaptation via farm management practices and purchase of crop insurance in the market. A choice experiment is used to reveal Danish farmer...

Non-point nitrogen discharges from agriculture are difficult to regulate, because of the diffuse nature of the pollution. Inflexible and uniform regulation policies have been the solution in many parts of the world. A more targeted and flexible regulation, adjusted to the heterogeneity of hydrological conditions and ambient water quality, as well a...

It is well-recognised that to achieve long-term sustainable and resilient land management we need to understand the coupled dynamics of social and ecological systems. Land use change scenarios will often aim to understand (i) the behaviours of land management, influenced by direct and indirect drivers, (ii) the resulting changes in land use and (ii...

Aarhus Universitet (AU) deltager sammen med DTU, GEUS, KU og NIVA-Danmark i flere store forskningsprojekter for at samle og dele viden og dermed skabe et solidt fagligt grundlag for at forvalte havets arealer. I bogen har vi gennemført det første danske forsøg på at udarbejde scenarier for en fremtidig bæredygtig udvikling af erhvervs-, samfunds- o...

The effectiveness of nitrogen abatement trading as a policy measure relies on both heterogeneity in costs and environmental effectiveness across landscapes. Cost‐efficient implementation may therefore critically depend on spatial distributions of farm and farmer characteristics in water catchments. We use a spatially specific hypothetical market ex...

Ecosystem services provided by marine bivalves in relation to nutrient extraction from the coastal environment have gained increased attention to mitigate adverse effects of excess nutrient loading from human activities, such as agriculture and sewage discharge. These activities damage coastal ecosystems and require action from local, regional, and...

It is well-recognised that to achieve long-term sustainable and resilient land management we need to understand the coupled dynamics of social and ecological systems. Land use change scenarios will often aim to understand (i) the behaviours of land management, influenced by direct and indirect drivers, (ii) the resulting changes in land use and (ii...

The Danish government has set specific goals for setting aside forest land for biodiversity purposes in the form of untouched forests, where no production forestry operations can be undertaken. Part of these goals will be fulfilled on public and state owned forest land, and parts will be fulfilled on private lands. Setting aside forest land as unto...

This paper explores the scope for simultaneously managing nutrient abatement and climate change mitigation in the Baltic Sea (BS) region through the implementation of a selection of measures. The analysis is undertaken using a cost-minimisation model for the entire BS region, the BALTCOST model. In the present research, the model has been extended...

The operational challenges of integrated ecosystem service (ES) appraisals are determined by study purpose, system complexity and uncertainty, decision-makers' requirements for reliability and accuracy of methods, and approaches to stakeholder-science interaction in different decision contexts. To explore these factors we defined an information gap...

We compared and contrasted 11 European case studies to identify challenges and opportunities toward the operationalization of marine and coastal ecosystem service (MCES) assessments in Europe. This work is the output of a panel convened by the Marine Working Group of the Ecosystem Services Partnership in September 2016. The MCES assessments were us...

As the ecosystem service concept has become more widely recognised, so the number of biophysical, socio-cultural and monetary methods available to assess ecosystem services has increased. There is relatively little guidance on how to select and combine these methods into hybrid approaches that address policy purposes. Based on experiences from 27 c...

Increased drought frequency in many parts of the world, especially in the global South, is expected due to accelerating climate change. We present a bioeconomic model that unpacks the role of soil biodiversity as contributing to both increasing and stabilizing agricultural productivity in low-input rainfed farming systems. The natural insurance val...

Nine Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were developed within the OpenNESS project specifically for modelling ecosystem services for case study applications. The novelty of the method, its ability to explore problems, to address uncertainty, and to facilitate stakeholder interaction in the process were all reasons for choosing BBNs. Most case studies...

A range of methods are available for assessing ecosystem services. Methods differ in their aims; from mapping and modelling the supply and demand of ecosystem services to appraising their economic and non-economic importance through valuation techniques. Comprehensive guidance for the selection of appropriate ecosystem service assessment methods th...

Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) approaches can potentially be used to protect and enhance the provision of ecosystem services. However, there is a need to assess the costs and effectiveness of such voluntary schemes. In particular there is a need for PES schemes to enhance climate regulating services in agricultural systems. In this paper we c...

Throughout the world, nitrogen (N) losses from intensive agricultural production may end up as undesirably high concentrations of nitrate in groundwater with a long-term impact on groundwater quality. This has human and environmental health consequences, due to the use of groundwater as a drinking water resource, and causes eutrophication of ground...

Farmers are exposed to substantial weather and market related risks. Rational farmers seek to avoid large losses. Future climate change and energy price fluctuations therefore make adaptating to increased risks particularly important for them. Managing soil natural capital—the capacity of the soil to generate ecosystem services of benefit to farmer...

The EU Water Framework Directive aims to ensure restoration of Europe’s water bodies to “good ecological status” by 2027. Many Member States will struggle to meet this target, with around half of EU river catchments currently reporting below standard water quality. Diffuse pollution from agriculture represents a major pressure, affecting over 90% o...

Climate and water quality are important ecosystem services; but improving these impacts the provisioning service of food production. Using spatially explicit data from a Danish catchment, we uncover the trade-offs and synergies between efficient provision of the three services by multiobjective optimization. Results show that trade-offs exist betwe...

This book is inspired by the positive feedback received by the Adaptation Inspiration Book developed in CIRCLE-2, coordinated by the Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon. This inspiration book is a culmination of four years extensive case study research carried out within the EU FP7 Project BASE: Bottom-up climate adaptation strategies towards...

Traditional pig production often relies on cereal-based feed, which has adverse environmental effects, e.g. nitrogen leaching and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Alternative production systems are therefore sought to improve the sustainability of pig production. A promising alternative is to use proteinaceous feed from grass, produced in a green bi...

One of the main contributors to anthropogenic climate change is agriculture, although, paradoxically, the sector is also very vulnerable to climate change effects, in particular extreme weather events. The agricultural sector can however make a significant contribution to climate change mitigation through increasing or sustaining soil carbon levels...

Given the concern about biodiversity loss, there are a number of arguments used for biodiversity conservation ranging from those emphasising the intrinsic value of biodiversity to those on the direct use value of ecosystems. Yet arguing the case for biodiversity conservation effectively requires an understanding of why people value biodiversity. We...

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in regulating the global carbon cycle and its feedbacks within the Earth system. Compelling evidence exists that soil carbon stocks have reduced in many regions of the world, with these reductions often associated with agriculture. In a Danish context, research also suggests that soil carbon stocks are...

The ecosystem services (EcoS) concept is being used increasingly to attach values to natural systems and the multiple benefits they provide to human societies. Ecosystem processes or functions only become EcoS if they are shown to have social and/or economic value. This should assure an explicit connection between the natural and social sciences, b...

Decision-making about nature needs to address values, therefore policy-making and management need assessment and valuation methods. But the association of ‘valuation’ with ‘money’ and ‘economics’, while a powerful language to some in certain contexts, is also alienating to others in many situations. ‘Integrated valuation’ aims to provide valuati...

This paper provides a framework to understand the source of the economic value of soil biodiversity and soil ecosystem services and maps out the pathways of such values. We clarify the link between components of the economic value of soil biodiversity and their associated services of particular relevance to soils. We contend that soil biodiversity...

This book contains 31 chapters, grouped into 7 parts, which provides a link between the complexity of the scientific knowledge on soil carbon, and how this knowledge can be applied for multiple benefits, and the complexity of the policy and practice arenas where soil and land management impact many sectors: environment, farming, energy, water, econ...

In March 2013, 40 leading experts from across the world gathered at a workshop, hosted by the European Commission, Directorate General Joint Research Centre, Italy, to discuss the multiple benefits of soil carbon as part of a Rapid Assessment Process (RAP) project commissioned by SCOPE (Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment). This col...

Valuation of soil carbon can be understood as the process for assigning ‘weights’ to soil carbon when these are inadequately represented in decision making processes. There are different types of weights or ‘values’ that can be assigned to soil carbon. One approach is to assign monetary weights to such resources using economic valuation models. The...

Soil carbon has an economic value insofar it is associated with an asset that provides benefits for humans. Demonstrating and measuring the economic value of soil carbon can provide valuable information for policy making. It makes explicit that soil carbon is not freely available. It signals the scarcity of the resource from a social point of view...

Nitrogen leakage from agriculture contributes significantly to eutrophication of freshwater and marine ecosystems, and numerous studies have focused on finding cost-effective ways to mitigate this effect. This article utilizes high-resolution data to identify a spatially targeted cost-effective reduction of nitrogen leakage, optimizing over measure...

With more than 60% of the land farmed, with vulnerable freshwater and marine environments, and with one of the most intensive, export-oriented livestock sectors in the world, the nitrogen (N) pollution pressure from Danish agriculture is severe. Consequently, a series of policy action plans have been implemented since the mid 1980s with significant...

Research on ecosystem services mapping and valuing has increased significantly in recent years. However, compared to provisioning and regulating services, cultural ecosystem services have not yet been fully integrated into operational frameworks. One reason for this is that transdisciplinarity is required to address the issue, since by definition c...

10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.04.018 Research on ecosystem services mapping and valuing has increased significantly in recent years. However, compared to provisioning and regulating services, cultural ecosystem services have not yet been fully integrated into operational frameworks. One reason for this is that transdisciplinarity is required to addres...

A Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment Rapid Assessment (SCOPE-RAP) workshop was held on 18–22 March 2013. This workshop was hosted by the European Commission, JRC Centre at Ispra, Italy, and brought together 40 leading experts from Africa, Asia, Europe and North and South America to create four synthesis chapters aimed at identifyin...

Data S1.Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits.

Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Br...

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the human kind due to the great uncertainty regarding the future impacts on a planetary scale and regarding the extent that each region and ecosystem will be affected. Many publications deal with mitigation policies while not so much has been published on economics of adaptation to climate cha...

Historically, environmental policies have largely failed to value either biodiversity itself, or the many outputs such as ecosystem services to which biodiversity contribute. Government institutions and agencies, the private sector and conservation NGOs require information relating to the worth that society and individuals place on different aspect...

C. Obst et al. provide a welcome opportunity to clarify the difference between environmental-economic cost-benefit analyses (such as ours) and environmental accounting exercises [such as the UN-SEEA ([ 1 ][1], [ 2 ][2]) initiative]. Accounting studies attempt to assess the total value of goods

Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the world's major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have...

Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan, with diverse biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. The region is endowed with many fragile and fragmented ecosystems, and land use and land cover changes have accelerated destructive processes with irreversible effects on ecosystems. The paper aims to (1) find prox...

The Tonle Sap wetland fishery was previously divided into 3 different management zones for conservation, open access fishing and private fishing. Rights to the private fishing zone involved auctions for exclusive rights to temporarily designated plots. This paper aims to explore the auction-based system by investigating how this fishery management...

Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land-use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the United Kingdom, we show the significance of land-use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urb...

Agricultural development in the Murcia autonomous region, Spain, has led to overexploitation of groundwater resources, and climate change will further increase pressures. Policy options to tackle the current unsustainable situation include the development of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) schemes from wetter regions in the north and the introduc...

District Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Documentation and analysis of land use change in this region is challenging due to very disparate accounts of the state of forest resources and limited accessible data. Such analysis is, however, important due to concerns over the degradation of forest land leading...

Maintaining drinking water quality is essential to water companies and their customers, and agricultural non-point source pollution is a major cause of water quality degradation. In this paper, we examine the potential use of payments financed by a water company as incentives for farmers to adjust their agricultural land management practices in ord...

Farming communities are increasingly expected to manage their agricultural activities in ways that ensure sustainable flows of a wide range of ecosystem services for society. The land use and management choices that farmers make are dependent upon their socio-economic characteristics and background, and in turn have important implications for the l...

Many regulating ecosystem services exhibit non-excludability and non-rivalry characteristics akin to public goods. This makes it unlikely that such regulating ecosystem services will attract a price in the marketplace. Policymakers, therefore, find difficulties in determining a correct economic valuation for regulating ecosystem services, with pote...

Presently, onshore wind turbine densities are increasing in many countries. The “crowding” of wind turbines in especially the urban fringe and in more densely populated rural areas is expected to meet resistance. However, few studies have to date analysed the cumulative effects of wind power on the social acceptance of wind power. We shed light on...

Insect pollinators of crops and wild plants are under threat globally and their decline or loss could have profound economic and environmental consequences. Here, we argue that multiple anthropogenic pressures – including land-use intensification, climate change, and the spread of alien species and diseases – are primarily responsible for insect-po...