M. Marshall

• PhD Geography (UCSB)
• Associate professor of crop resilience and sustainable land use at University of Twente

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events necessitate reliable global estimates of crop productivity under heat stress. Light use efficiency (LUE) models are commonly used for macroscale crop productivity estimation but exhibit uncertainties under high-temperature extremes related to the representation of model components and th...

Crop growth simulation models are often used to estimate crop yield. For most models, this requires crop, water, and soil management information, though this information is often lacking in many regions of the world. Assimilation of Earth observation (EO) data in crop growth models can generate field-level yield estimates over large areas. The use...

Stress caused by high temperatures is a critical limiting factor of crop growth and development. Although remote sensing has been used to investigate the impacts of high temperatures on crops, its ability to detect heat stress independently of other stressors and assess its effects on gross primary production (GPP) estimation is unclear. This study...

Artisanal small-scale mines (ASMs) in the Amazon Rainforest are an important cause of deforestation, forest degradation, biodiversity loss, sedimentation in rivers, and mercury emissions. Satellite image data are widely used in environmental decision-making to monitor changes in the land surface, but ASMs are difficult to map from space. ASMs are s...

Physical and economic access to food vary spatially. Methods to map that variability at high levels of spatial detail over large areas are scarce, even though suitable datasets and methods exist. Using open-access data for Ethiopia, we developed a method to map the disparities in physical and economic food access at 1-km resolution. We selected 25...

Genetic engineers are attempting to meet increased global food demand by rewiring the pathway crops take to convert sunlight and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into yield. Most crops use the C 3 pathway. C 4 photosynthesis uses a biological pump that concentrates CO 2 , which makes it less resource demanding than C 3 photosynthesis. C 4 photosynthesis howe...

Evapotranspiration (ET) calculated as the residual of catchment water balance (ETWB) has often been used as a benchmark to evaluate satellite-based ET retrievals that use the energy-balance approach (ETEB). However, errors from water balance components will accrue in ETWB, leading to considerable disparities with ETEB. In this study, we set out to...

Mapping arable field areas is crucial for assessing agricultural productivity but poses challenges in sub-Saharan agroecosystems because of diverse crop calendars, small and irregularly shaped fields, persistent cloud cover, and lack of high-quality model training data. This study proposes several methodological improvements to overcome these chall...

Crop yield estimates are an important data output of agricultural monitoring systems. In sub-Saharan Africa, large input requirements of crop growth models, fragmented agricultural systems and small field sizes are substantial challenges to accurately estimate crop yield. Multi-sensor data fusion can be a valuable source of high spatial and tempora...

Phenological responses of vegetation to global warming impact ecosystem gross primary production and evapotranspiration. However, high resolution and large spatial scale observational evidence of such responses in undisturbed core forest areas is lacking. Here, we analyse MODIS satellite data to assess monthly trends in gross primary productivity a...

Satellite image data deliver consistent and frequent information for crop yield estimation over large areas. Hyperspectral narrowbands are more sensitive spectrally to changes in crop growth than multispectral broadbands but few studies quantified the gains in the former over the later. The PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISM...

Earth observation image data are regularly used to capture surface conditions over large areas, but there is a trade-off between high (or low) spatial and low (or high) temporal resolution. The Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM) overcomes this trade-off by fusing high spatial and temporal resolution multisourc...

Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for water movements from land to air and plays a vital role in the terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles. Reliable estimates of ET for agricultural landscapes can facilitate water resources management and food security analysis. The widely used Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model has the...

The short revisit times afforded by recently-deployed optical satellite sensors that acquire 3–30 m resolution imagery provide new opportunities to study seasonal vegetation dynamics. Previous studies demonstrated a successful retrieval of phenology with Sentinel-2 for relatively stable annual growing seasons. In semi-arid East Africa however, vege...

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) has been successfully used for crops mapping due to its capability to achieve good classification results when a reduced number of training samples and irregular satellite image time series is available. Despite its recognized advantages, DTW does not account for the duration and seasonality of crops and local differences...

Remote sensing models that measure evapotranspiration directly from the Penman‐Monteith or Priestley‐Taylor equations typically estimate the soil evaporation component over large areas using coarse spatial resolution relative humidity (RH) from geospatial climate datasets. As a result, the models tend to underperform in dry areas at local scales wh...

Remote sensing data are used to map the extent of croplands. They are especially useful in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where landscapes are complex and farms are small, i.e. less than two ha. In this study, a hierarchical remote sensing approach was developed to estimate field fractions at 30 m spatial resolution in a highly fragmented agricultural re...

Mapping the extent and location of field boundaries is critical to food security analysis but remains problematic in the Global South where such information is needed the most. The difficulty is due primarily to fragmentation in the landscape, small farm sizes, and irregular farm boundaries. Very high-resolution satellite imagery affords an opportu...

Remote sensing based grassland carrying capacity assessments are not commonly applied in rangeland management. Possible reasons for this include non-equilibrium thinking in rangeland management, and the costli-ness of existing remotely sensed biomass estimation that carrying capacity assessments require. Here, we present a less demanding approach f...

Earth observation data are increasingly used to provide consistent eco-physiological information over large areas through time. Production efficiency models (PEMs) estimate Gross Primary Production (GPP) as a function of the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the canopy, which is derived from Earth observation. GPP can be s...

Vegetation plays a key role in the global climate system via modification of the water and energy balance. Its coupling to climate is therefore important, particularly in the tropics where severe climate change impacts are expected. Consequently, understanding vegetation dynamics and response to present and projected climatic conditions for various...

A growing body of research shows the importance of land use/cover change (LULCC) on modifying the Earth system. Land surface models are used to stimulate land–atmosphere dynamics at the macroscale, but model bias and uncertainty remain that need to be addressed before the importance of LULCC is fully realized. In this study, we propose a method of...

Vegetation plays a key role in the global climate system via modification of the water and energy balance. Its coupling to climate is therefore important particularly in the tropics, where severe climate change impacts are expected. Vegetation growth is mutually controlled by temperature and water availability while it modifies regional climate thr...

A growing body of research shows the importance of land use/cover change (LULCC) on modifying the earth system. Land surface models are used to stimulate land-atmosphere dynamics at the macro- (regional to global) scale, but bias and uncertainty remain that need to be addressed, before the importance of LULCC is fully realized. In this study, we pr...

The surface energy balance algorithm for land (SEBAL) estimates land surface evapotranspiration (ET) from radiometric surface temperature (TR), but requires manual selection of calibration pixels, which can be impractical for mapping seasonal ET. Here, pixel selection is automated and SEBAL implemented using global climate grids and satellite image...

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable that bridges remote sensing observations to the quantification of agroecosystem processes. In this study, we assessed the universality of the relationships between crop LAI and remotely sensed Vegetation Indices (VIs). We first compiled a global dataset of 1459 in situ quality-controlled crop LAI measurements...

Globally, the area of sugarcane is rising rapidly in response to growing demands for bioethanol and increased sugar demand for human consumption. Despite considerable diversity in production systems and contexts, sugarcane is a particularly “high impact” crop with significant positive and negative environmental and socio-economic impacts. Our analy...

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of micro- and macro-scale climatic processes. In agriculture, estimates of ET are frequently used to monitor droughts, schedule irrigation, and assess crop water productivity over large areas. Currently, in situ measurements of ET are difficult to scale up for regional applications, so remote sensin...

Earth observation-based long-term global vegetation index products are used by scientists from a wide range of disciplines concerned with global change. Inter-comparison studies are commonly performed to keep the user community informed on the consistency and accuracy of such records as they evolve. In this study, we compared two new records: (1) G...

Crop biomass is increasingly being measured with surface reflectance data derived from multispectral broadband (MSBB) and hyperspectral narrowband (HNB) space-borne remotely sensed data to increase the accuracy and efficiency of crop yield models used in a wide array of agricultural applications. However, few studies compare the ability of MSBBs ve...

Earth observation based long-term global vegetation index products are used by scientists from a wide range of disciplines concerned with global change. Inter-comparison studies are commonly performed to keep the user community informed on the consistency and accuracy of such records as they evolve. In this study, we compared two new records: (1) G...

The assessment of land degradation and the quantification of its effects on land productivity have been both a scientific and political challenge. After four decades of Earth Observation (EO) applications, little agreement has been gained on the magnitude and direction of land degradation in the Sahel. The large number of EO datasets and methods as...

Ground-based estimates of aboveground wet (fresh) biomass (AWB) are an important input for crop growth models. In this study, we developed empirical equations of AWB for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa, by combining several in situ non-spectral and spectral predictors. The non-spectral predictors included: crop height (H), fraction of absorbed pho...

New satellite missions are expected to record high spectral resolution information globally and consistently for the first time, so it is important to identify modeling techniques that take advantage of these new data. In this paper, we estimate biomass for four major crops using ground-based hyperspectral narrowbands. The spectra and their derivat...

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's economically poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are...

Measuring the vulnerability of human populations to environmental change is increasingly being used to develop appropriate adaptation policies and management plans for different economic sectors. We developed a national-level vulnerability index that is specific to food security policies by measuring nations’ relative vulnerabilities to a decline i...

The recent increase in food prices has revealed that climate, combined with an expanding population and a widespread change in diet, may result in an end to an era of predictable abundance of global cereal crops. The objective of this paper is to estimate changes of agriculturally-relevant growing season parameters, in-cluding the start of the seas...

Surface temperatures are projected to increase 3–4°C over much of Africa by the end of the 21st century. Precipitation projections are less certain, but the most plausible scenario given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that the Sahel and East Africa will experience modest increases (~5%) in precipitation by the end of the...

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is...

This chapter presents a novel interpolation approach that combines long-term mean satellite observations, station data, and topographic fields to produce grids of climate normals and trends. The approach was developed by the Climate Hazard Group (CHG) at the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), to support food security analyses for the U...

More than half of the people in sub-Saharan Africa live on less than US$ 1.25 per day, and nearly 30% do not receive sufficient nourishment to maintain daily health (UN, 2009a). These figures are expected to rise as a result of the recent global financial crisis that has led to an increase in food prices. Food for Peace (FFP), the program that admi...

District-level crop area (CA) is a highly uncertain term in food production equations, which are used to allocate food aid and implement appropriate food security initiatives. Remote sensing studies typically overestimate CA and production, as subsistence plots are exaggerated at coarser resolution, which leads to overoptimistic food reports. In th...

Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is an important moisture flux linking the Earth’s surface to the atmospheric hydrologic cycle. Global warming is expected to intensify this cycle, leading to moisture deficits over the sub-tropics, which will influence climate at higher latitudes. The spatio-temporal characterization of tropical AET is critical to un...

Global warming is expected to lead to dramatic increases in evapotranspiration (ET) over many of the most climatically sensitive parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Evapotranspiration is a key input in climate/hydrologic models. Despite the importance of ET to regional climate, its application in statistical seasonal rainfall forecasting has been limited...

Endemic malaria in most of the hot and humid African climates is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In the last twenty or so years the incidence of malaria has been aggravated by the resurgence of highland malaria epidemics which hitherto had been rare. A close association between malaria epidemics and climate variability has been report...

Climate change and the intensification of the water cycle is an important field of study, as global warming is expected to lead to dramatic increases in the frequency and magnitude of storms, floods, and droughts worldwide. In sub-tropical Africa, it is expected that the increase in evaporation and subsequent decrease in surface runoff will increas...

Reliable estimates of cropped area (CA) in developing countries with chronic food shortages are essential for emergency relief and the design of appropriate market-based food security programs. Satellite interpretation of CA is an effective alternative to extensive and costly field surveys, which fail to represent the spatial heterogeneity at the c...

Estimates of cropped area in developing countries can be critical in determining allocation of food aid. However, these countries frequently lack the resources or infrastructure to perform adequate national assessments. In these instances the use of remote sensing can provide estimates over wide areas which may be difficult to survey in person. Thi...

Cholera epidemics have a recorded history in the eastern Africa region dating to 1836. Cholera is now endemic in the Lake Victoria basin, a region with one of the poorest and fastest growing populations in the world. Analyses of precipitation, temperatures, and hydrological characteristics of selected stations in the Lake Victoria basin show that c...

The amount and extent of cropped area are essential parameters for determining food production and ultimately the state of food security in developing countries. Crop area estimation endeavors at the national- level are limited especially in remote areas of the world, due in part to the cost and time of making ground observations. Approximation of...

AIACC Working Papers, published on-line by Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), is a series of papers and paper abstracts written by researchers participating in the AIACC project. Papers published in AIACC Working Papers have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication in the on-line series as being (i) fundamental...