Lynda E Chambers

Bureau of Meteorology · Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific/Van-KIRAP

Growing interest in traditional knowledge (TK), particularly in relation to the prediction of weather or climate extremes, raises issues concerning the appropriate storage and management of the information collected. The Traditional Knowledge Database (TK Database) for the storage and use of TK associated with weather and climate prediction in the...

In most countries, national meteorological services either generate or have access to seasonal climate forecasts. However, in a number of regions, the uptake of these forecasts by local communities can be limited, with the locals instead relying on traditional knowledge to make their climate forecasts. Both approaches to seasonal climate forecastin...

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other re...

Traditional knowledge (TK) on weather and climate is an important aspect of community life in the Pacific. Used for generations, this knowledge is derived from observing biological and meteorological variables and contributes to building community resilience to weather extremes. Most of this knowledge is passed on orally and is in danger of being l...

Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of...

Pacific Islands, many relatively remote and small, have been occupied by people for more than 3000 years during which time they experienced climate‐driven environmental changes (both slow and rapid onset) that challenged human survival and led to the evolution of place‐based coping strategies expressed through traditional knowledge (TK). In today's...

National meteorological services (NMSs) are mandated to provide relevant and timely meteorological information to communities, including forecasts and warnings of conditions that are likely to endanger life, property, or the environment. However, in rural or remote areas, particularly in developing countries, traditional weather forecasting may be...

Table S1: Seasonal calendars of the Pacific based on a literature review. -Country Location (Ethnic group) -Type of calendar (Presented as) -# seasons -# months -Principal Use e.g. Agricultural, fishing, cultural -Reference -Comments

Traditional calendars document seasonal cycles and the communities' relationships to their biophysical environment and are often used by communities, particularly subsistence farmers, to synchronise their livelihood activities with the timing of ecological processes. As the timing of these ecological processes is not always consistent from year to...

Many indigenous communities have developed climate forecast skills by observing how the physical environment impacts the behavioural ecology and phenology of plants and animals. Despite technological advances, contemporary forecasts remain underutilized by indigenous communities. Community access to both Indigenous and Scientific knowledge systems...

In most countries, weather and seasonal climate forecasts are available through national meteorological services (NMSs). However, uptake of NMS forecasts in remote Pacific communities can be limited, particularly those relating to expected impacts. To address this, NMSs need a clearer understanding of the types of information local communities curr...

The process of successfully engaging Pacific communities to collect and document traditional knowledge (TK) on weather and climate can be complex. Community engagement is a process of inclusive participation, where the lines of existing cultural practices and protocols are often blurred and difficult to navigate. For the Traditional Knowledge on We...

Understanding seasonality, climate variability and climate change in the Pacific is complex. For many communities in the Pacific, 'weather', seasonality, climate variability, extreme climate events and climate change are words and concepts that are not well understood nor easily communicated. For most Pacific Island communities, seasonality is unde...

Throughout the Pacific, national meteorological services (NMSs) routinely issue weather and seasonal forecasts and warnings. However, many local communities also have access to forecasts based on observations of their environment, i.e. built on traditional knowledge, and this can influence the uptake of NMS forecasts. To better understand the type...

Designing monitoring programs to detect impending climate change effects on marine vertebrates is challenging, as data sufficient for large-scale power analysis is severely limited, yet sensitivity and response time of potential indicator variables are key uncertainties. In the absence of such data, the experience of researchers can be used to info...

Following publication of the original article [1], one of the authors flagged that the images for Figs. 2 and 3 were swapped in the published article—Fig. 2 had the image meant for Fig. 3 and vice versa.

Concerns over the loss of traditional Knowledge and the limited uptake of contemporary seasonal forecasts and warnings in some Pacific communities, led to COSPPac working with National Meteorological Services to develop tools to increase community resilience to meteorological and geo-hazard events. Trials were taken in five countries, Niue, Samoa,...

Background Malaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to implement a coordinated control programme. This programme resulted in a dramatic decrease in the number of cases and mortality however, malaria incidence remains high in the three most populated provinces. Anopheles farauti is the primary malaria vector and a b...

In the version of this Perspective originally published, affiliations 1 and 4 ware incorrect, and should have read: “¹Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia” and “⁴Centre for Water, Climate and Land (CWCL), University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia”. These have been corrected in the online v...

The interaction of gradual climate trends and extreme weather events since the turn of the century has triggered complex and, in some cases, catastrophic ecological responses around the world. We illustrate this using Australian examples within a press-pulse framework. Despite the Australian biota being adapted to high natural climate variability,...

People of Pacific have long history of forecasting and responding to extreme natural events based on repeated observation of their environments. However, it is now globally recognised that much can be gained by considering both contemporary and traditional expertise in the development of early warning and response systems. Based on this the Climate...

Remote communities in the Pacific are facing increased exposure to extreme climate and weather events. Pacific communities have traditional knowledge (TK), forecasting skills and coping strategies for extreme weather and climate events. This knowledge is under threat from social and environmental change. In most Pacific countries, weather and seaso...

Plotz R.D. & Chambers L.E. (2017). Linking forecasts and end users: perspectives from a Pacific Aid Program. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 30(4): 26-29. In recent decades there have been significant advances in the skill of climate predictions (Bauer et al., 2015). While numerical weather and climate forecast...

Close observation of their local environment, over multiple generations, has allowed communities in the Pacific to develop coping strategies for extreme weather and climate events. This includes the use of phenology for weather and climate forecasting. National Meteorological Services in Samoa, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu are now developing phenolo...

Through long-term observations of their local environment, Pacific Islanders have developed techniques that have allowed them to make their own weather forecasts and climate predictions. The rapid disappearance of traditional weather and climate knowledge concerns many Pacific Islanders as it weakens their ability to predict and cope with increasin...

National Meteorological Services (NMSs) routinely provide weather forecasts and seasonal predictions. Many Pacific communities do not use contemporary meteorological forecasts to the degree hoped for, with Pacific NMSs recognising that traditional weather and climate forecasting can play an important role in increasing community resilience to extre...

National Meteorological Services routinely provide weather forecasts and seasonal predictions. Forecast uptake in some parts of the Pacific region is low, largely due to a lack of community understanding or forecast obtainability. Some communities remain reliant on traditional or locally based forecasts built on direct observations of the world aro...

Long-term datasets needed to detect the impacts of global change on southern biodiversity are still scarce and often incomplete, challenging adaptation planning and conservation management. Biological data are probably most limited in arid countries and from the oceans, where natural environmental variability ('noise') means that long time series a...

On the 16th February 2016, the Urban Sustainability Branch of the City of Melbourne conducted a workshop with a working group of plant, fungi, bird, reptile, frog, mammal, insect and mollusc experts with the objective of identifying appropriate target species for rewilding, monitoring and public engagement in the City of Melbourne. The workshop was...

Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variabl...

Adaptation options in response to climate impact scenarios for marine mammals and seabirds were developed based on the IPCC vulnerability framework. Under this framework, vulnerability to the physical effects of climate change can be reduced by adaptation options that reduce exposure of individuals, reduce the sensitivity of individuals, and increa...

Advances in computing power and infrastructure, increases in the number and size of ecological and environmental datasets, and the number and type of data collection methods, are revolutionizing the field of Ecology. To integrate these advances, virtual laboratories offer a unique tool to facilitate, expedite, and accelerate research into the impac...

Climate change is acknowledged as an emerging threat for top-order marine predators, yet obtaining evidence of impacts is often difficult. In south-eastern Australia, a marine global warming hotspot, evidence suggests that climate change will profoundly affect pinnipeds and seabirds. Long-term data series are available to assess some species’ respo...

Phenology is the study of the timing of recurrent biological events and their biotic and abiotic drivers. There is considerable evidence, mostly from temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, of recent changes to phenological trends, likely to be in response to anthropogenic climate disruption. Here, we assess recent evidence of climate-related...

Climate change is already impacting a wide range of marine species around Australia. Australia has a large number of marine mammals and seabirds, particularly when Australian Antarctic and Southern Ocean species are included: 110 species of seabird and 52 species of marine mammal. These iconic species are protected throughout Australia and in some...

Climate change is already impacting a wide range of marine species around Australia. Australia has a large number of marine mammals and seabirds, particularly when Australian Antarctic and Southern Ocean species are included: 110 species of seabird and 52 species of marine mammal. These iconic species are protected throughout Australia and in some...

Indigenous people in Pacific Island countries (PICs) often use their knowledge of the environment, acquired through generations of holistic observational practices and experimental learning, to make meteorological forecasts. Such knowledge systems are now recognized by several institutions, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a...

Many communities in the developing world do not utilize weather service broadcasts to the degree expected. Reasons for this include inappropriate methods of forecast delivery, time scales and contexts that inhibit application to their needs. In addition, modern scientific forecasts are generally not well understood by the lay person without special...

Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. phenology). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment. Traditional climate...

Climate and competition influence seabird population size yet are rarely considered simultaneously. Here, we consider the influence of climate on nominal abundance trends, and test for evidence of interspecific competition based on 31 yr of count data from 3 co-occurring gull species in southeastern Tasmania. The silver gull Chroicocephalus novaeho...

Management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate is constrained by a series of uncertainties, often related to climate change projections, ecological responses, and the effectiveness of strategies in alleviating climate change impacts. Uncertainties can be reduced over time through adaptive management. Adaptive management is a framework for re...

Management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate is constrained by a series of uncertainties, often related to climate change projections, ecological responses, and the effectiveness of strategies in alleviating climate change impacts. Uncertainties can be reduced over time through adaptive management. Adaptive management is a framework for re...

We reviewed the range of climate impacts that are already impacting on marine mammals and seabirds, and improved the connectivity between researchers and managers with respect to climate adaptation thinking, with workshops, collaborations and outreach. In five case studies we investigated additional impacts of climate change, using a range of analy...

Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climatic conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. phases of moon, behaviour of plants and animals). Built over many generations, traditional climate indicators offer the potential for islands to use nature-based solutions to...

Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. behavior of plants and animals). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment....

Using a 40 yr demographic database of little penguins Eudyptula minor, we investigated anticipated impacts of climatic changes on the penguin population at Phillip Island, southeastern Australia, and the potential economic impact on the associated tourism industry over the next century. We project a small loss of penguin breeding habitat due to sea...

This chapter outlines the historical context of phenological observation and study in Australia and New Zealand. Details of early records are given as they provide a valuable baseline against which current phenology may be assessed. It also sum-marises the results of phenological studies undertaken in recent years and identi-fies further long-term...

Antarctica was the last continent to be discovered and colonized by people, and this has resulted in generally sparse meteorological, oceanographic and biological data for the Antarctic and much of the Southern Ocean. Within the Antarctic region, here defined to include all regions south of the Antarctic Polar Front, much of the land-based biologic...

Many Samoans forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. behaviour of plants and animals). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment. Traditional climate kno...

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are over-represented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implic...

There is substantial evidence of climate-related shifts to the timing of avian migration. Although spring arrival has generally advanced, variable species responses and geographical biases in data collection make it difficult to generalise patterns. We advance previous studies by using novel multivariate statistical techniques to explore complex re...

Rapid changes in global climate are likely to alter species assemblages and environmental characteristics resulting in novel ecosystems. The ability to predict characteristics of future ecosystems is crucial for environmental planning and the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This paper presents an approach for envision...

Abstract. Using 20 years of data (1986 to 2008), we examined relationships between oceanographic variables (Fremantle sea level (FSL) – a proxy for the strength of the Leeuwin Current – and sea surface temperature (SST)) and five measures of little penguin, Eudyptula minor, breeding performance near Perth, Western Australia: namely (1) the laying d...

Ocean temperature has been shown to be related to various demographic parameters in several seabird species, but ultimately its influence on breeding success and survival are paramount. The timing and success of breeding of little penguins Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia have been shown to correlate with local sea-surface temperatures (S...

SEABIRD AND MARINE MAMMAL MANAGEMENT OPTIONS IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE L.E. Chambers, A. Hobday, J. Arnould, T. Patterson, G. Tuck, C. Wilcox Climate change is already impacting Australia’s oceans. Responses by marine life to both climate variability and change have been documented for lower trophic levels, however, responses for Australia’s...

We live in an age of increased awareness of climate change and its potential eects on our ecosystems. Here we look at the eect of one aspect of climate, directional wind components, on the survival of Little Penguins Eudyptula minor on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia, using mark-recapture data gathered over a 42 year period since 1968. We...

We live in an age of increased awareness of climate change and its potential effects on our ecosystems. Here we look at the effect of one aspect of climate, directional wind components, on the survival of Little Penguins Eudyptula minor on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia, using mark-recapture data gathered over a 42 year period since 1968....

We live in an age of increased awareness of climate change and its potential effects on our ecosystems. Here we look at the effect of one aspect of climate, directional wind components, on the survival of Little Penguins Eudyptula minor on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia, using mark-recapture data gathered over a 42 year period since 1968....

Around the globe, growing evidence suggests that a warming climate is affecting marine ecosystems and species. This raises the question of what can be done to help seabirds and other species adapt to a changed environment.

Abstract. Climate change has profound implications for biodiversity worldwide. To understand its effects on Australia’s avifauna, we need to evaluate the effects of annual climatic variability and geographical climate gradients. Here, we use national datasets to examine variation in breeding of 16 species of common and widespread Australian landbir...

Although there is growing evidence of climate warming, for many regions the broader effects of climate variation on marine top predators remains unknown owing to the difficulty in obtaining, for synthesis, long-term and short-term datasets on multiple species. In the Australian region, climatic and oceanographic variability and change have been sho...

Abstract Temporal and climate-related changes in avian phenology were assessed for seven species of south-eastern Australia using data obtained from members of the public, naturalist groups and other organizations. Despite significantly warmer temperatures (∼0.02–0.03°C per year) and reduced rainfall (∼1.6–8.0 mm per year) over much of south-easter...

Recent greenhouse gas emissions exceed the highest IPCC SRES scenario (Raupach et al. 2007); global warming this century is thus on track to exceed the 1.58C lower limit cited by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as resulting in increasingly high extinction risk for 20Á30% of Earth's biodiversity (Parry et al. 2007). Minimising negative impacts on...

Abstract. The peri-urban environment of Langwarrin, near Melbourne, Australia, was used to investigate relationships between local climate and timing of movements in land and waterbirds. From 1976 to 1997, three of 12 species (25%) significantly altered the timing of their arrival, four of 11 species (36%) altered the timing of their departure, and...

Abstract. Historical information from the Hobart Botanical Gardens (1864–1885) was used to identify species and phenological phases that were responsive to climatic variations and have the potential to be used as climate change indicators in southern Australia. Of the 49 species considered, 26 (53%) had at least one phenophase that appeared to be d...

Numbers of four duck species present within a study area in a tidal embayment (Corner Inlet, south-eastern Australia) were obtained between 1977 and 2002. The species involved were Chestnut (Anas castanea) and Grey (A. gracilis) Teal, Pacific Black Duck (A. superciliosa) and Australian Shelduck (Tadorna tadornoides) and counts are compared with loc...

SUMMARY This project uses climate change modelling for Phillip Island, the Western Port region and Bass Strait to investigate the likely impacts of changes on the penguin population at Phillip Island over the next 100 years. The aims of this project were: 1) To review the predictions for climate change during the next 70-100 years for Phillip Islan...

As is the case for many seabirds, we found that the timing and breeding success of little penguins Eudyptula minor on Phillip Island, southeastern Australia, was associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variation. Using 31 yr of data (1968 to 1998), we examined the correlations between breeding variables and regional SST at different times of...

For seabirds in the Australian region, climatic and oceanographic variation and change has been associated with changes in distribution, success and timing of breeding, chick growth and survival of adults and immature birds, across many foraging guilds and regions. Currently, there is a low-medium level of confidence in the prediction of potential...

Relatively little is currently known about the influence of changes in climate on phenology (timing of natural events) in the southern hemisphere, even though the implications to humans and the natural environment can be large. This paper sources recent phenological Australian studies and assesses the extent to which phenological shifts have occurr...