Lucia Capra

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México | UNAM · Centre for Geoscience

A probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) for Ceboruco volcano (Mexico) is reported using PyBetVH, an e-tool based on the Bayesian Event Tree (BET) methodology. Like many volcanoes, Ceboruco is under-monitored. Despite several eruptions in the late Holocene and efforts by several university and government groups to create and sustain a moni...

Resumen México tiene al menos 46 centros volcánicos que podrían considerarse activos o potencialmente activos (incluyen-do campos volcánicos monogenéticos). Debido al carácter federal del país, el Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres (CENAPRED) es la entidad responsable de monitorear los fenómenos naturales. Individualmente, algu-nos estados...

Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, experienced at least nine flank failures during the last 30,000 years, with catastrophic effects on the environment that implies the formation of temporary dams where lacustrine sediments accumulated for hundreds of years. These lacustrine sequences preserve an exceptional record from wh...

El proyecto de geoparque mundial UNESCO Triángulo Sagrado es un área de patrimonio geológico, biodiversidad y riqueza cultural, unificado por sus atractivos naturales únicas en el mundo, donde los sitios de interés y paisajes se promueven a través de educación, geoturismo y desarrollo sustentable. El geoparque se ubica en el Estado de Querétaro, cu...

The 2017 Mw 7.1 Puebla–Morelos intraslab earthquake (depth: 57 km) severely hit Popocatépetl Volcano, located ∼ 70 km north of the epicenter. The seismic shaking triggered shallow landslides on the volcanic edifice, mobilizing slope material saturated by the 3 d antecedent rainfall. We produced a landslide map based on a semi-automatic classificati...

We conduct a probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment for Ceboruco volcano (Mexico) using PyBetVH, an e-tool based on the Bayesian event tree (BET) methodology. We use available information about the volcano, including eruptive history, numerical and theoretical models, to generate probability maps. Our hazard assessment accounts for the variabilit...

Active volcanoes continuously register morphological changes during their activity by the emplacement of lava flows and pyroclastic loose material on their flanks. Precipitation represents an external agent that reshapes the volcano edifice by remobilizing large volumes of ash and pyroclastic flow deposits producing lahars, sediment-water, or/and g...

In recent decades, finite-element modelling (FEM) has become a very popular tool in volcanological studies and has even been used to describe complex system geometries by accounting for multiple reservoirs, topography, and heterogeneous distribution of host rock mechanical properties. In spite of this, the influence of geological information on num...

Ceboruco (2280 m.a.s.l.), in the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, is considered among the most hazardous volcanoes in Mexico. Some 55,000 people and important infrastructure (e.g. hydroelectric dams; highways; railways) lie within the area covered by deposits of Holocene eruptions. A diverse activity over the past 1000 years spans from effusive...

The behaviour of dry and wet volcanic granular flows is one of the main research topics in present day geophysics and volcanology. It involves various disciplines (e.g. sedimentology, geophysics, fluid dynamics) and investigation techniques (e.g. field studies, laboratory experiments, computational fluid dynamics). The vast interest is justified by...

Here, we present data from a 3-component broadband seismometer and video camera installed 3 m from the Lumbre channel on Volcán de Colima, Mexico to understand rheology differences within multiple lahar events that occurred in late 2016. We examine differences in frequency and directionality from each seismic component. Results indicate an increase...

Los lahares secundarios representan una de las mayores amenazas en volcanes activos o en estado de quietud, por lo tanto, es importante estimar la frecuencia, distribución y los mecanismos disparadores en diferentes volcanes para establecer escenarios de peligro. En este trabajo se analizó el lahar ocurrido el día 4 de febrero del 2010, en la barra...

In the last decades numerical methods have become very popular tools in volcanological studies, since capable of considering many relevant parameters in their calculations, such as the presence of multiple reservoirs, topography, and heterogeneous distribution of the host rock mechanical properties. Although the widespread availability of geodetic...

Abstract. The M7.1 Puebla-Morelos earthquake that occurred on 19 September 2017, with epicenter located ∼ 70 km SW from Popocatépetl volcano, severely hit central Mexico. Seismic shaking of the volcanic edifice induced by the earthquake triggered hundreds of shallow landslides on the volcanic flanks, remobilizing loose pyroclastic deposits and satu...

Connectivity is an emergent property that describes how complex topography favors or impedes sediment transfer processes. In active volcanic areas, high connectivity may lead to extremely efficient processes, such as lahars. The aim of the present study is to examine the behavior (activation–deactivation) of sub-basins affected by volcanic and anth...

This technical report, in Spanish, compiles the known eruptive history of the Ceboruco volcano, the definition of hazard scenarios and the methodology used for the construction of volcanic hazard maps, both by each volcanic phenomena and the general one (published too as a poster). Integrates all the information produced in the project "Evaluación...

Of the 48 volcanoes in Mexico listed as potentially active by the National Center for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED), Ceboruco, located in the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, is considered among the 5 most hazardous. Its recent eruptive history includes a large magnitude Plinian (VEI 6) eruption ~ 1000 years ago and the historical 1870–1875 vu...

Volcán de Colima (VdC) is considered the most active volcano in México, not only in terms of eruptive activity but also for the high-frequency in lahars generation. In fact, lahars (water and sediment mix flowing down along volcano slopes) are very common at VdC. During the rainy season from May to October, several lahars are originated in main rav...

The Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) shows a complex eruptive behavior, with periods of rapid and slow lava dome growth punctuated by explosive activity. We reconstructed the weekly discharge rate average between 1998 and 2018 by means of satellite thermal data integrated with published discharge rate data. By using spectral and wavelet analysis, w...

The eruption at Volcán de Colima (México) on 10-11 July 2015 represents the most violent eruption that has occurred at this volcano since the 1913 Plinian eruption. The extraordinary runout of the associated pyroclastic flows was never observed during the past dome collapse events in 1991 or 2004-2005. Based on Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Te...

The Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) showed a complex eruptive behaviour with periods of rapid and slow lava dome growth, punctuated by explosive activity. We reconstructed the weekly discharge rate average between 1998 and 2018 by means of satellite thermal data integrated with published discharge rate data. By using spectral and wavelet analysis,...

Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are among the most hazardous of all volcanic processes in terms of high speeds and unpredictable extent. While concentrated PDCs are usually topographically confined, the dilute counterpart (ash cloud) is able to overrun topographic barriers, with unexpected trajectories posing a high risk for human settlements a...

Ceboruco volcano in the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt is one of the eleven most active stratovolcanoes in Mexico. Due to its recent eruptive history including a large Plinian eruption ~ 1000 years ago, the AD 1870 eruption, and recurrent recent seismic activity, it seemed highly appropriate to construct a hazard map in order to be prepared fo...

Volcán de Colima has experienced numerous partial edifice collapses with associated debris avalanche deposits, widely distributed toward the SW, S and SE sectors. According to new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates, activity began more than 97,000 years ago on the southern flank of Nevado de Colima with the formation of the so-called Paleofuego edifice. Several colla...

Lahars represent a common phenomenon at Volcán de Colima, directly associated with an eruptive event, or occurring up to several years after. Most common events are rain-triggered lahars, which are generated under different meteorological and eruptive conditions in the main ravines on the flanks of the volcano. Triggering mechanisms and flow behavi...

On the 23 rd of October 2015, hurricane Patricia 2015, hurricane Patricia hit Volcán de Colima Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico. The hurricane was announced as category 5, but it rapidly weakened after landfall. Up to 400 mm of rain fell over a 30 hour period. Along the La Lumbre ravine, on the western slope of the volca...

Between the years of 30 b.c. to a.d. 80, during the Late Formative period, the site of Izapa was flooded by lahars associated with an explosive eruption of the San Antonio volcano (part of the Tacaná Volcanic Complex). Computer simulations suggest that hot pyroclastic flows did not impact Izapa directly, but did impact the region considerably, fill...

The 1913 sub-Plinian eruption of Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) occurred after almost 100 years of effusive and (minor) Vulcanian explosive activity, which modulated dome growth and destruction. Dome extrusion persisted from 1869 to 1913. The transition to explosive eruption started on 17 January 1913, and it progressed in three phases: (1) openi...

El volcán Popocatépetl es el segundo volcán más activo de México y el de mayor riesgo, debido a su historial de erupciones altamente explosivas documentadas en el registro estratigráfico y al número de personas e infraestructura que se encuentran sobre sus laderas y planicies aledañas (e.g. Siebe et al., 1996; Siebe y Macías, 2006). La emisión y d...

The recent 10th–11th of July 2015 Volcán de Colima eruption involved the collapse of the summit dome that breached to the south generating pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) along the Montegrande ravine on the southern flank of the volcano. Trees within the valley were buried, uprooted and variably transported by the PDCs, while the trees on the e...

Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) represent one of the most dangerous phenomena occurring in explosive volcanic eruptions, and any advance in the physical understanding of their transport and sedimentation processes can contribute to improving their hazard assessment. The 10–11 July 2015 eruption at Volcán de Colima provided a unique opportunity...

We present direct observations and monitoring data of a hyperconcentrated flow that occurred along La Lumbre ravine, one of the most active channels of Volcán de Colima in Mexico. Flow properties were inferred from video images and seismic data recorded by a geophone installed outside the channel. We collected flow samples 400 meters upstream from...

The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2011, 2013 and 2015 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, triggered tropical storms that deposited up to 400 mm of rain in 36 h, with maximum intensities of 50 mm h ⁻¹. The...

The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2001, 2013 and 2016 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, promoted tropical storms that accumulated up to 400 mm of rain in 36 hrs, with maximum intensities of 50 mm/hrs. E...

The July 2015 block-and-ash flow (BAF) events represent the first documented series of large-volume and long-runout BAFs generated from sustained dome collapses at Volcán de Colima. This eruption is particularly exceptional at this volcano due to (1) the large volume of BAF material emplaced (0.0077±0.001km³), (2) the long runout reached by the ass...

Demographic growth and consequent land-use changes are considered one of the main factors causing inundations in many cities in developing countries. During the last decade, the city of Colima, Mexico, has suffered from an increase in flooding events. These episodes mostly occurred during tropical rainstorms associated to hurricanes (such as Jova i...

Volcán de Colima currently is the most active volcano in Mexico where a number of rain-induced lahars occur each year. After an explosive phase, lahar frequency increases due to the immediate reworking of pyroclastic material and it progressively decreases in the following years. This behavior was distinctly observed during the two last rainy seaso...

Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for rapid flow-like landslides can be classified into two main types: advance-and event-systems. Advance EWSs predict the flow occurrence by monitoring the parameters that may lead to initiation conditions, typically rainfall. This kind of EWSs are prone to a high number of false alarms because they are strongly affecte...

The Sobreiro Formation (SF) records one excellent and well-preserved example of subaerial Precambrian (ca. 1.88 Ga) volcanism on earth. It is located in the São Felix do Xingu region (SFX), in the eastern part of Pará State, southern Amazonian Craton, northern of Brazil. The high-K calc-alkaline composition of the Sobreiro rocks indicates that this...

Two lahar episodes that occurred at Colima and Popocatepetl volcanoes (Mexico) are modeled using the FLO2D code, with the scope to define the parameters that control flow simulation and their reliability. The Lahar Patrio at Volcan de Colima was used to evaluate the model performance related to the influence of input hydrograph shape and Manning-n...

One of the most common phenomena at Volcán de Colima is the annual development of lahars that runs mainly through the southern ravines of the edifice. Since 2011 the study and the monitoring of these flows and of the associated rainfall has been achieved by means of an instrumented station located along the Montegrande ravine, together with the sys...

La actualización del Mapa de Peligros del volcán Popocatépetl (versión 2016) ha sido elaborada usando Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) compatibles con el Atlas Nacional de Riesgo, con criterios más modernos de diseño y representación. Se espera que pueda ser una herramienta útil para la gestión territorial y de riesgos, en la toma de decisi...

One of the most common phenomenon at Volcán de Colima is the annual development of lahars that runs mainly through the southern ravines of the edifice. Since 2011 the study and the monitoring of these flows and of the associated rainfall has been achieved by means of an instrumented station located in Montegrande ravine, together with the systemati...

Volcán de Colima is one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, not only for its eruptive history, but also for its annual occurrence of lahars. This makes the volcano a natural laboratory for monitoring and studying lahar processes. Since 2011, monitoring instruments have been deployed along the highly active Montegrande ravine, with at least thre...

Volcán de Colima is one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, not only for its eruptive history, but also for its annual occurrence of lahars. This makes the volcano a natural laboratory for monitoring and studying lahar processes. Since 2011, monitoring instruments have been deployed along the highly active Montegrande ravine, with at least thre...

On July 10–11, 2015 an eruption occurred at Colima volcano produced 10.5 km long pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) along the Montegrande, and 6.5 km long along the San Antonio ravines. The summit dome was destroyed and a new crater excavated and breached to the south. This new breach connects to a narrow channel that descends along Colima's south...

Nevado de Toluca volcano is one of the largest stratovolcanoes in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. During Late Pleistocene its activity was characterized by large domes grow and subsequent collapse emplacing large block and ash flow deposits, intercalated by Plinian eruptions. Morphological and paleoclimate studies at Nevado de Toluca and surroundi...

On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedr...

As a result of the frequent effusive activity of Volcán de Colima (10º 30 44 N, 103º 37 02 W), the most active volcano in Mexico, plenty of rain triggered lahars are produced, especially during the rainy season. Along the recent period of activity, particularly from 2010, many of these lahars channelled through the main ravines of the volcano and r...

El Chichón volcano became known worldwide after it erupted catastrophically in 1982 and killed an estimated 2,000 people. A cumulative mass of almost 8 million tons of sulfur dioxide was injected into the stratosphere. The first reconstruction(s) of the stratigraphic successions carried out at the volcano shortly after the eruption suggested a long...