Lucas Berio Fortini

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Verified

Lucas verified their affiliation via an institutional email.

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• PhD
• Research ecologist at United States Geological Survey

Quickly locating new populations of non‐native species can reduce the ecological and economic costs of species invasions. However, the difficulty of predicting which new non‐native species will establish, and where, has limited active post‐border biosurveillance efforts. Because pathways of introduction underlie spatial patterns of establishment ri...

In the face of unprecedented ecological changes, the conservation community needs strategies to recover species at risk of extinction. On the Island of Maui, we collaborated with species experts and managers to assist with climate‐resilient recovery planning for 36 at‐risk native plant species by identifying priority areas for the management of rec...

The effective management of at-risk species often requires fine-scale actions by natural resource managers. However, balancing these actions with concurrent land uses is challenging, particularly when compounded by the interplay of climate shifts, and escalating wildland–urban interface conflicts. We used spatial prioritization tools designed for b...

The spread of ecosystem modifying invasive plant (EMIP) species is one of the largest threats to native ecosystems in Hawaiʻi. However, differences in niche characteristics between Hawaiʻi’s isolated insular environment and the wider global distribution of these species have not been carefully examined. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) m...

Similar to other single-island endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers, the critically endangered ‘ākohekohe (Palmeria dolei) is threatened by climate-driven disease spread. To avert the imminent risk of extinction, managers are considering novel measures, including the conservation introduction (CI) of ‘ākohekohe from Maui to higher elevation habitats on t...

Metrosideros polymorpha (‘ohi‘a, ‘ohi‘a lehua) is an important foundation species in Hawaiian forest habitats. The genus originated in New Zealand and was dispersed to the Hawaiian archipelago approximately 3.9 million years ago. It evolved into five distinct endemic species and one of these, Metrosideros polymorpha, further differentiated into eig...

Hawaiian honeycreepers, a group of endemic Hawaiian forest birds, are being threatened by avian malaria, a non-native disease that is driving honeycreepers populations to extinction. Avian malaria is caused by the parasite Plasmodium relictum, which is transmitted by the invasive mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Environmental and geographical facto...

The associated uncertainties of future climate projections are one of the biggest obstacles to overcome in studies exploring the potential regional impacts of future climate shifts. In remote and climatically complex regions, the limited number of available downscaled projections may not provide an accurate representation of the underlying uncertai...

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/30/ Climate change—especially sea level rise, altered rainfall patterns, and rising ocean and air temperatures—impairs access to clean water and healthy food, undermines human health, threatens cultural resources and the built environment, exacerbates inequities, and disrupts economic activity and diverse ec...

Accurate estimates of current and future habitat suitability are needed for species that may require assistance in tracking a shifting climate. Standard species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrence data are the most common approach for evaluating climatic suitability, but these may suffer from inaccuracies stemming from disequilibrium dyn...

Aim Citizen science is a cost‐effective potential source of invasive species occurrence data. However, data quality issues due to unstructured sampling approaches may discourage the use of these observations by science and conservation professionals. This study explored the utility of low‐structure iNaturalist citizen science data in invasive plant...

Translocation, often a management solution reserved for at‐risk species, is a highly time‐sensitive intervention in the face of a rapidly changing climate. The definition of abiotic and biotic habitat requirements is essential to the selection of appropriate release sites in novel environments. However, field‐based approaches to gathering this info...

In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To he...

The Hawaiian Islands have been identified as a global biodiversity hotspot. We examine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using Climate Data Records products (0.05 × 0.05°) to identify significant differences in NDVI between neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation years (1984, 2019) and significant long-term changes over the entire time...

Drought is a prominent feature of Hawaiʻi’s climate. However, it has been over 30 years since the last comprehensive meteorological drought analysis, and recent drying trends have emphasized the need to better understand drought dynamics and multi-sector effects in Hawaiʻi. Here, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of past drought effects in Hawai...

Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global sca...

Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum) already exhibits substantial climate-associated p...

As the most remote archipelago in the world, the Hawaiian Islands are home to a highly endemic and disharmonic biota that has fascinated biologists for centuries. Forests are the dominant terrestrial biome in Hawai‘i, spanning complex, heterogeneous climates across substrates that vary tremendously in age, soil structure, and nutrient availability....

Watershed degradation due to invasion threatens downstream water flows and associated ecosystem services. While this topic has been studied across landscapes that have undergone invasive-driven state changes (e.g., native forest to invaded grassland), it is less well understood in ecosystems experiencing within-system invasion (e.g. native forest t...

Conservation actions to safeguard climate change vulnerable species may not be utilized due to a variety of perceived barriers. Assisted colonization, the intentional movement and release of an organism outside its historical range, is one tool available for species predicted to lose habitat under future climate change scenarios, particularly for s...

Various vector control options are increasingly being considered to safeguard forest birds in their natural habitats from avian malaria transmission. However, vector control options require localized deployment that is not logistically, ethically, ecologically, nor economically viable everywhere and all the time. Based on thermal tolerances of the...

Hawai‘i’s most widespread native tree, ‘ōhi‘a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha), has been dying across large areas of Hawai‘i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens (Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as...

Nearly 25% of world's poor are dependent on forests, with 0.5–1 billion smallholders managing trees. This extensive human use of forests points to the need for sustainable timber management (STM) at smallholder scales. Similar to other tropical regions, households in the Amazon Estuary have harvested timber informally with minimal management for de...

The value of land-use strategies that increase food production while conserving biodiversity is widely recognized. Many indigenous agroecosystems are productive, adaptive and ecologically principled, but are largely overlooked by planning in terms of their potential to meet current and future food needs. We developed spatial distribution models of...

Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawaii often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for simi...

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informi...

Climate during the Early Cretaceous in tropical South America has often been reconstructed as arid. However, some areas seem to have been humid. We reconstructed the floristic composition of two tropical stratigraphic successions in Peru using quantitative palynology (rarefied species richness and abundance), and used the abundance of aridity vs. h...

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projec...

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 spe...

For the State of Hawaiʻi, total carbon storage was projected to increase by about 6 percent (14.7 TgC) to 267.6 TgC in 2061. • Carbon stored in living biomass was projected to decrease by approximately 1.3 percent by 2061, from 52.0 TgC to 51.3 TgC; soil organic carbon was projected to increase from 183.6 TgC to 198.0 TgC. • Net ecosystem productio...

Anticipating potential shifts in plant communities has been a major challenge in climate change ecology. In Hawaiʻi, where conservation efforts tend to be habitat focused, the lack of projections of vegetation shifts under future climate is a major knowledge gap for developing management actions aimed at climate change mitigation and adaptation. •...

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds ha...

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree h...

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation manage...

Relatively little attention has been paid to the economic potentials and limitations of tropical timber production and management at smallholder scales, with the most relevant research focusing on community forestry efforts. As a rare tropical example of long-lasting small-scale timber production, in this study we explore the economics of smallhold...

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation manage...

Hawaiʻi, an archipelago of the most isolated inhabited islands on the planet, faces unique and extreme challenges to its biodiversity. We examined how the conservation community has responded to these challenges and how the responses have changed over time, using twenty years of abstracts from the Hawaiʻi Conservation Conference, a yearly gathering...

In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of...

Premise of the study: Reconstruction of floristic patterns during the early diversification of angiosperms is impeded by the scarce fossil record, especially in tropical latitudes. Here we collected quantitative palynological data from a stratigraphic sequence in tropical South America to provide floristic and climatic insights into such tropical...

Although tidal floodplain forests represent the oldest commercial logging frontier in the Amazon, tree demography analyses are lacking. Consequently, the accurate evaluation of impacts of past use and the development of ecologically sound forest management has lagged. To address that gap, we combine matrix model methods with data from interviews wi...

Despite research demonstrating that water and nutrient availability exert strong effects on multiple ecosystem processes in tropical forests, little is known about the effect of these factors on the demography and population dynamics of tropical trees. Over the course of 5 years, we monitored two common Amazonian secondary forest species-Lacistema...

For an old-growth forest edge in the Sierra Nevada, we quantified the extent of edge effects from a group selection harvest. Across transects from the interior of the old-growth forest through the group selection opening, we quantified changes in resource availability (light, soil moisture, and seedbed) and vegetation composition (cover, richness)....

Wildlife is a critical food resource throughout Amazonia. Consequently, adaptive management based on continued resource evaluation is essential to ensure long-term sustainable use of Amazonian wildlife. Since 1996, the Kaxinawá people of Western Amazonia have participated in a capacity-building program focused on natural resource management leading...

We evaluated the structural and compositional variability between floodplain forest sites in the Amazon estuary. Although tidal floodplain forests have been commonly perceived as a homogenous forest type, comparisons of basal area and stem density show that, from one locale to another, these forests can vary greatly in structure. Comparisons of com...

Alternative hypotheses were tested to explain a previously reported anomaly in the response of leaf photosynthetic capacity at light saturation (A(max)) in Miconia ciliata to dry-season irrigation. The anomaly is characterized by an abrupt increase in leaf A(max) for nonirrigated plants at the onset of the rainy season to values that significantly...

Analyses of the effects of drought stress on Amazonian regrowth stands are lacking. We measured leaf gas exchange and leaf water potential of Miconia ciliata (Melastomataceae) in a dry-season irrigation experiment in 14-yr-old regrowth. In the dry season, irrigated plants maintained significantly higher leaf water potentials, photosynthetic capacit...