Luc Savard

• Phd Paris School of Economics
• Professor (Full) at Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique

This paper examines the macroeconomic, sectoral and welfare impacts of trade liberalization policies based on import tariffs (scenario 1), partial export tax (scenario 2) and complete export tax (scenario 3) reductions in Guinea-Bissau using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model from 2022 to 2036. GDP grows at approximately 1.6%, 0.03% and...

A general equilibrium externality approach is developed to model the economic outcomes of road construction and maintenance investment funded through government savings/debt in Guinea-Bissau from 2014 to 2030, equivalent to 1% of current Chinese investment in this country. The model is calibrated using sector elasticities and a social accounting ma...

A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is developed to analyze the distributional implications of trade liberalization in Guinea-Bissau. The model accommodates variable behavioral and social welfare functions and heterogeneous households. Although intra-group inequality has risen slightly by 0.057% due to trade liberalization, income inequa...

The ‘Fit for 55’ policy package was presented in the European Commission’s Green Deal framework, comprising a set of proposals to improve existing energy and climate legislation. Among its main proposals was a revision of the European Union’s Emission Trading System to expand its sectoral coverage. Anticipating the possible loss of competitiveness...

This study aims to provide insights into the decoupling of GDP growth and greenhouse gas (GHS) emissions in Morocco, a developing country with the ambitious goals of reducing GHG and strongly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. The Engle-Granger cointegration method was used in addition to the Tapio elastic analysis based on annua...

In this paper, we present a social and economic impact analysis of the Burundi political crisis (2015 to 2017) accompanied by economic sanctions. We perform our analysis with a macro–micro-simulation framework. We constructed a macro–micro analytical framework that includes a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a micro-simulation (MS) mo...

This study aims to analyze the impacts of improved agricultural productivity (IAP) on structural transformation and poverty in Guinea-Bissau (2014–2030) using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We found evidence of a positive effect of IAP on growth and sectoral output. Increased wealth accumulation and labor savings in...

This paper examines the potential effects of agricultural investment on economic outcomes in Guinea-Bissau (2014–2030). Through a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we found that improved agricultural performance will positively impact economic growth, sector output, and job opportunities for rural and urban workers. The decline in...

This study contributes to the literature on the identification of factors shaping the decision to participate in the grain market in Africa. Unlike previous studies, we introduce labor market participation into the farm household model to highlight heterogeneities in decision making. Empirically, we rely on an extension of Heckman's approach and in...

This study examines the economic impacts of an infrastructure investment programme in Guinea‐Bissau for the period 2014–2030 using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Social accounting matrix (SAM) takes into account informal activities, and the model integrates funding schemes for infrastructure investment. We found that debt‐funded in...

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a global catastrophe with radical impacts triggering policy responses worldwide. 1 Literature on the topic has been unanimous on the deleterious effects of this crisis on the global and national economies, and on poverty, particularly in low-income countries (Miguel and Mobarak, 2022). With varying degrees in terms of...

This study aims to consolidate the economic history of Quebec over the period from 1948 to 2019 with the emphasis on the period 1948–1980 for which we estimated the quarterly GDP for the province. Unlike previous economic studies relating to this period, we identify the chronology of the economic cycle of Quebec by estimating the real quarterly GDP...

This paper aims to assess the role of informality and trade facilitation on the export probability of Guinea-Bissau. We include informality in the Féchet function, which gives the expression for the country’s supply probability. We find that Guinea-Bissau is about 7.2% less likely to export due to the 1% increase in informality. The export’s probab...

This study aims to analyze the impact of Covid-19 on the female’s labor force participation (LFP) probability in Brazil in 2020. We found through the probit model that females are about 7 percentage points less likely to participate in the labor force than males. Covid-19 and layoffs decrease by about 7 and 30 percentage points the women’s LFP prob...

In this paper we present an social and economic impact analysis of the Burundi political crisis (2015 to 2017) performed with a macro-micro-simulation framework. To achieve these objectives, we constructed a macro-micro analytical framework that includes a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a micro-simulation (MS) model. This framework...

This study aims to analyze the economic impacts of infrastructure investment in Africa, focusing on the Guinea-Bissau economy. Through a dynamic CGE model, we find that the natural resource revenues (or aid)-funded infrastructure investments generate externalities that increase factor returns. The private investment improvements propagate externali...

In this paper, we present computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as a tool for analyzing the impact of fiscal reforms. We discuss the general strengths and weaknesses of CGE models, and the basic principles to be followed for their proper use in the context of a democratic policy debate. Next, we examine which behaviors of economic agents are...

This paper shows how a strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions combined with economic cycles can lead to particular consumption behaviours. We are assuming the existence of an “economic” demand for “non-green” goods and a “social” demand for “green” goods. We are also assuming the existence of a dispersion of household characteristics organis...

Purpose There is much evidence in the literature showing the benefits of input market participation on farmers’ welfare. The same is true for participation in marketing. However, there are very few studies on the expected benefit of input market participation and marketing. This study fills this gap by examining the issue in the Senegalese context...

Cette étude vise à affermir notre compréhension de l’histoire économique du Québec sur la période allant de 1948 à 1980. À la différence des études économiques antérieures portant sur cette période, nous identifions la chronologie du cycle économique du Québec en estimant le PIB réel trimestriel à l’aide de la méthode de Ginsburgh (1973) telle que...

This study aims to consolidate the economic history of Quebec over the period from 1948 to 1980. Unlike previous economic studies relating to this period, we identify the chronology of the economic cycle of Quebec by estimating the real quarterly GDP by using the method of Ginsburgh (1973) as modified by De Carufel and Lizotte (1982). Our analysis...

This study contributes to the literature on the identification of factors shaping the decision to participate in the grain market in Africa. Unlike previous studies, we introduce labor market participation into the farm household model to highlight the heterogeneity in decision making. Empirically, we rely on an extension of Heckman's approach and...

Mali has introduced a program to produce biodiesel using jatropha, a shrub widely available throughout the country. The aim of the program is to partially substitute diesel, which is entirely supplied through imports, with domestically produced biodiesel. In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a microsimulation model...

Quebec’s forests represent 20% of Canadian forests and 2% of the world forests. Over the entire planet, forests play a major role in habitat preservation and in supplying goods and services to the population. However, climate change will have an impact on the forest through inter alia increased droughts, forest fires, warmer weather, and infestatio...

Dans cet article, nous présentons les deux outils les plus utilisés pour analyser l’impact de réformes fiscales à savoir le coût marginal des fonds publics (CMFP) en équilibre partiel et les modèles d’équilibre général calculable (MEGC). Nous nous attardons ensuite aux MEGC et nous discutons leurs forces et faiblesses comme outils d’analyse économi...

What is the best pro-poor value-added tax (VAT) design to increase public revenue in developing countries: A perfect uniform tax, a multiple-rate system, or a tighter tax base with a high rate? This debate remains relevant, even though many studies have analyzed the economic impact of VAT reforms. Most of these studies have considered VAT as a cons...

Since the late seventies, researchers and policy makers have sought to analyse and simulate the impacts of macro policy reforms on income distribution. Concerns such as the social implications of structural adjustment policies, poverty/inequality effects of trade liberalization, pro-poor or inclusive growth or the poverty impacts of the global food...

Since the late seventies, researchers and policy makers have sought to analyse and simulate the impacts of macro policy reforms on income distribution. Concerns such as the social implications of structural adjustment policies, poverty/inequality effects of trade liberalization, pro-poor or inclusive growth or the poverty impacts of the global food...

This chapter reviews options of labor market modeling in a computable general equilibrium framework. On the labor supply side, two principal modeling options are distinguished and discussed: aggregated, representative households and microsimulation based on individual household data. On the labor demand side, we focus on the substitution possibilit...

We consider the issue of income distribution modeling in the context of poverty analysis impact based on computable general equilibrium micro-simulation models. The empirical distribution function (EDF) is by far the most commonly used estimator in practice. It is, however, not the only available consistent estimator and there may be situations in...

In this paper, we present a distributional impact analysis of climate change policies envisaged or implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Senegal. We consider policies implemented in developed countries and their impact on a developing country. Moreover, we simulate the diminishing productivity of agricultural land as a potential result...

Labour market analysis is an important element to understand the inequality and poverty within a given population. The literature reveals that the informal sector is characterised by a great deal of flexibility and is exempt from formal market rigidities on the one hand, but on the other hand, this sector can constitute a trap from which it is diff...

This article proposes a unified technique of the Gini decomposition. The Gini multi-decomposition is a combination of the income source decomposition and the subgroup decomposition. This technique is applied on reference situation and simulated scenarios for partial trade liberalisation in Philippines, and is extended to different orderings to capt...

This article combines computable general equilibrium (CGE) micro-simulation modeling and the Gini multi-decomposition analysis. The CGE-micro-simulation approach enables one to generate endogenous income distributions following government policy interventions. The introduction of these endogenous distributions into the Gini multi-decomposition, tha...

The challenge of realigning the present path of development on a sustainable trajectory concerns all sectors of society, including engineering. To move towards a sustainable practice of engineering, the design process needs to be modified in order for engineers to efficiently tackle the related issues. Such ‘sustainable design processes’ (SDPs) are...

The economic literature has been investigating the positive relation between public infrastructure spending and the productivity of the private sector since Munnell (1992). We have introduced this relationship into a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Quebec economy to investigate various funding schemes to scale up infra...

A biofuels race has emerged because of the increasing cost of oil. In parallel, a growing concern for environmental protection has been observed. The expansion of biofuel production has occurs concurrently with raising prices of the foodstuffs. Developing countries like Mali have seen this situation as an opportunity to reduce its dependency on oil...

I. Beyond the classic closing or the dilemma of Amartya Sen In the AUTA model, as in the AUTETA model, it was assumed that the value of a country’s total investment, IT, adjusts to the level of available savings. This is what is expressed by the equilibrium conditions of the AUTA and AUTETA models, according to which IT takes a value determined by...

This chapter reviews options of labor market modelling in a CGE framework. On the labor supply side, two principal modelling options are distinguished and discussed: aggregated, representative households and micro simulation based on individual household data. On the labor demand side, we focus on the substitution possibilities between different ty...

Afin de disposer des ressources publiques nécessaires à son développement, le Niger étudie la possibilité d'élargir l'assiette fiscale de la TVA aux biens exonérés et aux biens d'alimentations de base. Cette proposition a provoqué des oppositions violentes conduisant à poser la question des impacts sociaux de la fiscalité. Nous avons construit le p...

A biofuels race has been observed around the world with rising cost of oil and the increasing concerns over climate change. Unfortunately, this growth is associated with rising food prices, which is a major concern in developing countries like Mali. The development of biofuels in Mali should contribute to reducing dependency on imported fossil fuel...

The economic literature has been investigating the positive relation between public infrastructure spending and the productivity of the private sector since Munnell (1992). We have thus introduced this relation into the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Quebec to assess the economic impacts of scaling up infrastructure on th...

In order to have the public funds necessary for its development, Niger is examining the possibility of expanding its VAT tax base to exempted goods and basic food products. This proposal has prompted violent opposition leading to the question of the social impacts of taxation. The first micro-macro computable general equilibrium model of Niger's ac...

In this paper we use a top-down bottom-up CGE microsimulation model with endogenous labour supply and unemployment to explore the impact of scaling up infrastructure spending in the Philippines. In the current debate on the importance of scaling up infrastructure to stimulate growth, some analysts raise concerns about potential negative macroeconom...

The article describes the application of an integrated multi-household computable general equilibrium model to the analysis of the impacts on poverty and inequality of the construction of a toll road between Dakar and Thiés in Senegal. Potential effects of the projected highway, such as productivity gains, decreases in transportation costs, and inc...

Afin de disposer des ressources publiques nécessaires à son développement, le Niger étudie la possibilité d’élargir l’assiette fiscale de la TVA aux biens exonérés et aux biens d’alimentations de base. Cette proposition a provoqué des oppositions violentes conduisant à poser la question des impacts sociaux de la fiscalité. Nous avons construit le p...

The article describes the application of an integrated multi-household computable general equilibrium model to the analysis of the impacts on poverty and inequality of the construction of a toll road between Dakar and Thiès in Senegal. Potential effects of the projected highway, such as productivity gains, decreases in transportation costs, and inc...

An important pro-poor growth literature has emerged in the context of the millennium development goals and poverty reduction strategy papers. Most of this literature relies on partial equilibrium analysis for their applications. Moreover, few researches attempted to analyse policy coherence in this context. In this paper we deal with these issues i...

The authors constructed a standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the economic impact of increased spending on infrastructure in six African countries: Benin, Cameroon, Mali, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda. The basic elements of the model are drawn from EXTER, adjusted to accommodate infrastructure externalities. Seven sectors...

This paper focuses on the distribution impact from Senegal's water reforms with emphasis on rates reforms. We first analyze the evolution of consumption patterns before and after the reforms. We found that most of the gains accrue to the highest income classes while the poor have seen little changes. We then use a multi-household integrated Computa...

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) macro-micro model to explore the distributional effects of price reform in the electricity sector of Senegal. In the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in Senegal by income quintiles, between 1995 and 2001. The analysis demonstrates that poor and rural households...

Macro/micro-economic modelling has emerged as a rigorous instrument to link policy reforms with changes in income distribution. Indeed, this approach enables one to capture directly the general equilibrium effect of policy reforms upon changes in household welfare. These endogenous distributions combined with the Gini multi-decomposition provide po...

La théorie économique a pendant longtemps admis une relation positive entre le capital humain et la croissance économique (Smith, 1776 ; Becker, 1964) qui sera remise en cause à la fin des années 90 dans plusieurs études (Caselli et al., 1996 ; Pritchett, 2001). Parmi les faiblesses identifiées par ces auteurs, la critique relative à l’utilisation...

Economic theory long acknowledged a positive relation between human capital and economic growth (Smith, 1776; Becker, 1964), which was nevertheless called into question in the late 1990s (Caselli et al. 1996; Pritchett, 2001). The two primary criticisms evoked were the failure to consider diminishing returns to education and qualitative aspects of...

Ever since the end of the Biafra war, re-exportation has become an important economic activity for Benin’s economy. One of the reasons for the existence of this type of commerce resides in the disparity in economic policies between Benin and Nigeria. We model this sector and its interrelations with the remainder of the economy as well as on public...

Cette étude porte sur l’analyse de la réglementation applicable dans le cadre des politiques environnementales en France, à la lumière de la théorie économique. Elle dresse un bilan de l’évolution des pratiques et se focalise d’avantage sur le fonctionnement du système de permis d’émission négociables. La réalisation de cet état des lieux a exigé u...

L’estimation des coûts liés à l’imposition de limites aux émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) a fait l’objet de beaucoup d’attention médiatique dernièrement. La Chine étant un des plus grands émetteurs de GES, l’évaluation des coûts pour l’économie chinoise est donc primordiale. Dans ce travail, nous évaluons le coût de l’imposition d’une taxe...

La théorie économique a pendant longtemps admis une relation positive entre le capital humain et la croissance économique (Smith, 1776 ; Becker, 1964) qui sera remise en cause à la fin des années 90 dans plusieurs études (Caselli et al., 1996 ; Pritchett, 2001). Parmi les faiblesses identifiées par ces auteurs, la critique relative à l’utilisation...

Economic policies, poverty and inequality in Morroco : A CGE microsimulation analysis For several years, Morocco joined a new dynamics for the design of economic policies among which trade liberalization and foreign direct investments (FDI) incentives. The various dimensions of the economic and social impact of these policies must be quantified and...

In this paper we present a survey of distributional impact analysis of environmental policies envisaged or implemented to reduce greenhouse gaz emissions. The implementation of these policies usually aim at reducing greenhouse gases directly or indirectly. However, these policies can also produce important changes in factor allocation, relative pri...

In this paper we construct an archetype CGE model and apply it to six sub-Saharan African countries to explore the impact of scaling up infrastructure in African countries. As part of the debate on the importance of scaling up infrastructure to stimulate growth and provide a push to African economies, some analysts have raised concerns on providing...

In this paper we present a survey of distributional impact analysis of environmental policies envisaged or implemented to reduce greenhouse gasses emissions. Implementation of policies by developed countries has an objective of reducing greenhouse gasses directly or indirectly. However, these policies can produce important changes in factor allocat...

This paper aims to provide engineers and the engineering community with a conceptual framework setting out the connections between engineering projects and the sustainable development of environmental and social systems. The main principles of sustainable development on the one hand and of sustainable engineering on the other hand are first reviewe...

In this paper we use a CGE macro-micro modelling approach to analyse the distributional impact of the food crisis and to examine a couple of policy responses in two neighbouring West African countries. Both countries are strongly dependent on agriculture; both have similar climates and share many other features. However, the approach we use capture...

In this paper, we analyse the coherence of development policies and foreign aid on income distribution and poverty in Mali. These policies are generally analysed independently. We focus our analysis on joint effects of these policies in Mali. We use a macro-micro CGE framework to analyse the coherence of development policies, trade policies, migrat...

In Senegal, the poverty reduction strategy is taking place in a context where international trade liberalization impacts the agricultural sector as a whole, and the groundnut sector in particular. Against this backdrop, we have developed a micro-simulated multiple-household computable general equilibrium model similar to the one proposed by Decaluw...

In this paper, we suggest a framework for the analysis of ethnic polarization. This framework allows for the measurement of ethnic or religious polarization. We apply our measure to Ivory Coast and find a surprising result as the ethnic polarization decreased in years preceding the conflict in the country. However, further decomposition of the ethn...

This paper explores income distribution modeling approaches for poverty analysis in a CGE micro-simulation context. Income distribution functional forms such as the lognormal, Pareto, beta distribution and empirical methods are currently used in CGE models in parallel with the estimation of FGT poverty indices. The particular methods or functional...

Increasing the economic wellbeing of the poorest households is one of the main goals of the new economic policy in Senegal The poverty reduction strategy will be implemented in a context globalization with major changes in the agricultural sector. In this context, we have developed a microsimulated computable general equilibrium model that allows u...

Résumé La nouvelle orientation de la politique économique au Sénégal vise à accroître les revenus des pauvres et à attaquer la pauvreté là où elle est principalement localisée. La stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté va être mise en oeuvre dans un contexte de libéralisation des échanges commerciaux internationaux notamment dans le secteur agricole...

In this paper we construct a standard CGE model to explore the impact of scaling up infrastructure in Mali. As the debate on the importance of scaling up infrastructure to stimulate growth and provide a push to African economies, some analyst raise concern on financing these infrastructures after construction and that external funding of these can...

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) macro-micro model to explore the distributional effects of price reform in the electricity sector of Senegal. In the first part of the paper we analyze the distribution of electricity in Senegal by income quintiles, between 1995 and 2001. The analysis demonstrates that poor and rural households...

Economic reforms and pro-poor growth: A macro-micro application to the Philippines An important pro-poor growth literature has emerged in the context of the millennium development goals and poverty reduction strategy papers. Most of this literature relies on partial equilibrium analysis for their applications. Moreover, few researches attempted to...

In this paper, we construct for Mali the first country-specific CGE model including a micro-simulation component so as to analyse how removing cotton subsidies in developed countries would impact poverty and inequality. To that effect, we have used the micro-accounting approach proposed by Chen and Ravallion. The issue has attracted significant att...

Dans ce travail, nous analysons la cohérence de politiques de développement sur la pauvreté et la distribution des revenus au Sénégal. Les politiques économiques et de développements des pays développés ont un impact significatif sur les pays en voie de développement. Ces politiques sont généralement analysées de manières isolées. Or, celles-ci ne...

Résumé La nouvelle orientation de la politique économique au Sénégal vise à accroître les revenus des pauvres et à attaquer la pauvreté là où elle est principalement localisée. La stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté va être mise en oeuvre dans un contexte de libéralisation des échanges commerciaux internationaux notamment dans le secteur agricole...

In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium model to study the impact of a trade shock and a tariff reform on household poverty for an archetype developing country. Unlike other studies, we present the income distribution of each household group as a Beta statistical distribution. In contrast to other studies, this paper presents the pove...

In this paper, we construct the first country specific CGE model for Mali with a micro-simulation component to analyze the poverty and inequality changes of removing cotton subsidies in developed countries. We used the macro-accounting approach proposed by Chen and Ravallion (2004). This issue has attracted significant attention as is has contribut...

Depuis plusieurs années, le Maroc s’est inscrit dans une nouvelle dynamique de politiques économiques dont la libéralisation à tous les niveaux et l’attraction des investissements directs étrangers dans plusieurs secteurs d’activité. L’impact économique et social de ces politiques devait être quantifié et analysé selon plusieurs dimensions. Dans ce...

This paper proposes many indicators of vertical and horizontal redistribution throughout a generalized technique of Gini decomposition. Using the TD/BU micro-simulation models with externalities, we simulate income distributions and income source distributions for seven educational groups in Philippines in order to measure the inequality variations...

Dans ce travail nous utilisons un modèle d’équilibre général calculable mutli-ménages intégrés pour analyser l’impact de la construction d’une autoroute à péage entre Dakar et Thiès au Sénégal, sur la pauvreté et les inégalités. Nous avons simulé différents scénarios découlant de la construction de l’autoroute tel que des gains de productivité, une...

In Senegal, the poverty reduction strategy will take place in a context characterized by international trade liberalization in the agricultural sector, in general and the groundnut sector, in particular. This is the backdrop against which we have developed a micro-simulated multiple household computable general equilibrium such as proposed by Decal...

Many argued that water accessibility to the poor has been improved with the privatization of water utilities and that privatization on the whole has been beneficial to the poor households. In this paper, we used a multi-household integrated CGE model to analyze the impact of the privatization of the water utilities in Senegal on poverty and inequal...