Louis M. François

Louis M. François
University of Liège | ulg · Department of Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography

Professor

About

200
Publications
56,624
Reads
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7,391
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 2005 - December 2006
University of Liège
September 1999 - June 2000
Paul Sabatier University - Toulouse III
Position
  • Research Associate CNRS
January 1990 - December 1992
University of Michigan

Publications

Publications (200)
Article
Full-text available
Improving the model-based predictions of plant species under a projected climate is essential to better conserve our biodiversity. However, the mechanistic link between climatic variation and plant response at the species level remains relatively poorly understood and not accurately developed in Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs). We investigated the...
Article
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Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Article
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The greening of the Sahara, associated with the African Humid Period (AHP) between ca. 14,500 and 5,000 y ago, is arguably the largest climate-induced environmental change in the Holocene; it is usually explained by the strengthening and northward expansion of the African monsoon in response to orbital forcing. However, the strengthened monsoon in...
Article
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Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. I...
Article
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Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, s...
Article
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Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used with climate only to predict animal distribution changes. This approach however neglects the evolution of other components of the niche, like food resource availability. SDMs are also commonly used with plants. This also suffers limitations, notably an inability to capture the fertilizing effect...
Article
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Plant species models are among the available tools to predict the future of ecosystems threatened by climate change, habitat loss, and degradation. However, they suffer from low to no inclusion of plant dispersal, which is necessary to predict ecosystem evolution. A variety of seed dispersal models have been conceived for anemochorous and zoochorou...
Article
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Le modèle CARAIB a été initialement développé pour décrire la dynamique des écosystèmes naturels et pour étudier le rôle de la végétation dans le cycle global du carbone. Afin de pouvoir répondre à de nouveaux défis (comme l'étude des rétroactions climat-végétation ou encore l'évaluation des services écosystémiques), le modèle a été doté d'un nouve...
Article
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Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) P...
Article
Full-text available
Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and...
Article
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Spatial vegetation patterns potentially reflect coeval continental climate variations which are also impacted by palaeogeographical settings. Plant functional types (PFTs) and their distribution, frequently applied in ecological studies and biome modelling, serve as a tool for reconstructing palaeovegetation units and ultimately tracing palaeoecolo...
Article
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Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal...
Article
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Carbon fluxes at the land‐atmosphere interface are strongly influenced by weather and climate conditions. Yet what is usually known as “climate extremes” does not always translate into very high or low carbon fluxes or so‐called “carbon extremes.” To reveal the patterns of how climate extremes influence terrestrial carbon fluxes, we analyzed the in...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract. Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to q...
Article
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The origin of modern disjunct plant distributions in the Brazilian Highlands with strong floristic affinities to distant montane rainforests of isolated mountaintops in the northeast and northern Amazonia and the Guyana Shield remains unknown. We tested the hypothesis that these unexplained biogeographical patterns reflect former ecosystem rearrang...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical...
Article
The origin of modern disjunct plant distributions in the Brazilian Highlands with strong floristic affinities to distant montane rainforests of isolated mountaintops in the northeast and northern Amazonia and the Guyana Shield remains unknown. We tested the hypothesis that these unexplained biogeographical patterns reflect former ecosystem rearrang...
Presentation
Glacial-interglacial cycles are recorded in various climatic archives from high to low latitudes over the Quaternary. The EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core provides a high-resolution record of δ18Oatm (i.e. δ18O of atmospheric O2) which combines past variations of the low latitude water cycle and of the biosphere productivity. Over the last 800 ka, the δ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The δ18Oatm (i.e. δ18O of atmospheric O2) combines past variations of the low latitude water cycle and of the biosphere productivity. Over the last 800 ka, the δ18Oatm measured in EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core shows orbital and millennial variations which are similar to the low latitude hydrological cycle variations observed in the δ18Ocalcite of the...
Article
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Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate cond...
Article
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Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to d...
Article
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Climate change is a threat to natural ecosystems. To evaluate this threat and, where possible, respond, it is useful to understand the potential impacts climate change could have on species’ distributions, phenology, and productivity. Here, we compare future-scenario outcomes between a dynamic vegetation model (DVM; CARbon Assimilation In the Biosp...
Article
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African tropical ecosystems and the services they provide to human society suffer from an increasing combined pressure of land use and climate change. How individual tropical tree species respond to climate change remains relatively unknown. In this study, we refined the species characterization in the CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere)...
Article
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This paper evaluates the ability of eight global vegetation models to reproduce recent trends and inter-annual variability of biomass in natural terrestrial ecosystems. For the purpose of this evaluation, the simulated trajectories of biomass are expressed in terms of the relative rate of change in biomass (RRB), defined as the deviation of the act...
Article
Based on ecospectra of 66 published carpofloras we study dynamics and evolution of Turgay vegetation in Western Siberia during the early Oligocene to earliest Miocene. The ecospectra are obtained using a Plant Functional Type (PFT) classification system comprising 26 herbaceous to arboreal PFTs. The carpofloras originate from seven floristic levels...
Article
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The aim of this study was to evaluate by prediction of the spatial distribution of Quercus ilex L. in its natural range in eastern Algeria. The maximum entropy method was used for modeling the species in potentially favorable areas under environmental conditions by linking the spatial occurrence and the environmental conditions. The following three...
Article
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Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%). Mode...
Article
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Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate...
Article
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This study reconstructs and interprets the changing range of Atlas cedar in northern Morocco over the last 9,000 years. A synthesis of fossil pollen records indicated that Atlas cedars occupied a wider range at lower elevations during the mid-Holocene than today. The mid-Holocene geographical expansion reflected low winter temperatures and higher w...
Article
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Simulating vegetation photosynthetic productivity (or gross primary production, GPP) is a critical feature of the biome models used for impact assessments of climate change. We conducted a benchmarking of global GPP simulated by eight biome models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a...
Article
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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). We evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (E...
Poster
The Quaternary is characterized by a succession of glacial and interglacial periods recorded in various climatic archives from high to low latitudes. Antarctic ice cores provide high latitude climate reconstruction from water isotopes as well as global proxy records such as greenhouse gas concentrations. Within global tracers, δ18O of O2 or δ18Oatm...
Article
Full-text available
Process-based vegetation models are crucial tools to better understand biosphere-atmosphere exchanges and ecophysiological responses to climate change. In this contribution the performance of two global dynamic vegetation models, i.e. CARAIB and ISBACC, and one stand-scale forest model, i.e. 4C, was compared to long-term observed net ecosystem carb...
Presentation
Dynamic vegetation models (DVM), such as CARAIB (“CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere”) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil with the aim of studying the role of vegetation in the carbon cycle. But their characteristics allow numerous other applications and improvements, such as t...
Article
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The Ourthe River, in the south-east of Belgium, has a catchment area of 3500 km 2 and is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River. In the Ourthe, most of the flood events (FE) occur during winter and about 50% of them are due to heavy rainfall events combined with an abrupt melting of the snowpack covering the Ardennes massif during winter. T...
Article
The Miocene is a relatively recent epoch of the Earth’s history with warmer climate than today, particularly during the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO, approximatively 17-15 Ma). Although the cause of the warming is probably not only attributable to CO 2, but also to changes in orography and configuration of ocean gateways, this time interva...
Poster
Dynamic vegetation models (DVM) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil, to study the role of the vegetation in the carbon cycle. These models are now directly coupled with climate models in order to evaluate feedbacks between vegetation and climate. But DVM characteristics allow nume...
Poster
The interactions between land surface and climate are complex. Climate changes can affect ecosystem structure and functions, by altering photosynthesis and productivity or inducing thermal and hydric stresses on plant species. These changes then impact socio-economic systems, through e.g., lower farming or forestry incomes. Ultimately, it can lead...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Introduction A wide variety of dynamic crop growth simulation models have been developed over the past few decades that can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, multi-model ensemble approaches have been adopted to quantify aspects of uncertainty in simulating yield respons...
Poster
Full-text available
While uncertainties remain regarding projected temperature and precipitation changes, climate warming is already affecting ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Decrease in ecosystem productivity as well as increase in mortality of some plant species induced by drought and disturbance have been reported. Here, we applied the process-based dyna...
Article
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This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and S...
Article
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Eddy covariance data from four European grassland sites are used to probabilistically invert the CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) dynamic vegetation model (DVM) with 10 unknown parameters, using the DREAM(ZS) (DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. We focus on comparing model inversions, co...