Logan T. Berner

Northern Arizona University | NAU · School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems

Deciduous tree cover is expected to increase in North American boreal forests with climate warming and wildfire. This shift in composition has the potential to generate biophysical cooling via increased land surface albedo. Here we use Landsat-derived maps of continuous tree canopy cover and deciduous fractional composition to assess albedo change...

Studies in recent decades show strong evidence of physical and biological changes in the Arctic tundra largely in response to exceptionally rapid rates of warming. Given the important implications of these changes on ecosystem services, hydrology, surface energy balance, carbon budgets, and climate feedbacks, research on the trends and patterns of...

Rapid warming and increasing disturbances in Arctic-boreal regions have caused extensive vegetation shifts and uncertain future carbon budgets. Better predictions of vegetation dynamics and functions require characterizing resilience–the capability to recover from climate perturbations and disturbances. Here, we quantify time-varying vegetation res...

Creating strategic forest reserves is essential for stemming the loss of biodiversity and contributing to climate mitigation and adaptation. Meeting preservation targets of 30% protection by 2030, and 50% by 2050 would lead to greater protection of animal taxa and tree species habitat, carbon stocks and accumulation, and forests that are important...

Changes in vegetation distribution are underway in Arctic and boreal regions due to climate warming and associated fire disturbance. These changes have wide ranging downstream impacts – affecting wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, climate feedbacks and fire regimes. It is thus critical to understand where these changes are occurring and what types...

There is growing recognition that soil moisture plays a crucial role in regulating the response of tundra carbon cycling to climate warming. This is a commentary on Zona et al. (2022).

Ecosystems in the North American Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) experience a diverse set of disturbances associated with wildfire, permafrost dynamics, geomorphic processes, insect outbreaks and pathogens, extreme weather events, and human activity. Climate warming in the ABZ is occurring at over twice the rate of the global average, and as a result the...

Here we response to a Letter to the Editor by Timoney (2022) and maintain our conclusion that “there have been systematic trends in vegetation greenness during recent decades that are consistent with an emerging boreal biome shift associated with ongoing climate warming.”

The boreal forest biome is a major component of Earth's biosphere and climate system that is projected to shift northward due to continued climate change over the coming century. Indicators of a biome shift will likely first be evident along the climatic margins of the boreal forest and include changes in vegetation productivity, mortality, and rec...

Deciduous tree cover is expected to increase in North American boreal forests with climate warming and wildfire occurrence. This shift in composition can generate biophysical cooling effects via increased land surface albedo. Here we use newly derived maps of continuous tree canopy and fractional deciduous cover to assess change over recent decades...

https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2021/ArtMID/8022/ArticleID/936/Tundra-Greenness

Forest preservation is crucial for protecting biodiversity and mitigating climate change. Here we assess current forest preservation in the western United States using spatial data and find that beyond the 18.9% (17.5 Mha) currently protected, an additional 11.1% (10.3 Mha) is needed to achieve 30% preservation by 2030 (30 × 30). To help meet this...

The Arctic is one chapter from the State of the Climate in 2020 annual report and is available from https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0086.1. Compiled by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate in 2020 is based on contributions from scientists from around the world. It provides a detailed update on global climate...

Climate change-driven droughts and insect outbreaks are becoming more frequent and widespread, increasing forest vulnerability to mortality. By addressing the impacts of climate and insects on tree growth preceding death, we can better understand tree mortality risk under a changing climate. Here, we used tree stature and interannual growth (basal...

Vegetation composition shifts, and in particular, shrub expansion across the Arctic tundra are some of the most important and widely observed responses of high-latitude ecosystems to rapid climate warming. These changes in vegetation potentially alter ecosystem carbon balances by affecting a complex set of soil–plant–atmosphere interactions. In thi...

As the Arctic warms, tundra wildfires are expected to become more frequent and severe. Assessing how the most flammable regions of the tundra respond to burning can inform us about how the rest of the Arctic may be affected by climate change. Here we describe ecosystem responses to tundra fires in the Noatak River watershed of northwestern Alaska u...

The transition zone between the northern boreal forest and the arctic tundra, known as the tundra-taiga ecotone (TTE) has undergone rapid warming in recent decades. In response to this warming, tree density, growth, and stand productivity are expected to increase. Increases in tree density have the potential to negate the positive impacts of warmin...

Large-diameter trees store disproportionally massive amounts of carbon and are a major driver of carbon cycle dynamics in forests worldwide. In the temperate forests of the western United States, proposed changes to Forest Plans would significantly weaken protections for a large portion of trees greater than 53 cm (21 inches) in diameter (herein re...

Changes in vegetation productivity based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have been reported from Arctic regions. Most studies use very coarse spatial resolution remote sensing data that cannot isolate landscape level factors. For example, on Yamal Peninsula in West Siberia enhanced willow growth has been linked to widespread landsl...

Warming in recent decades has triggered shrub expansion in Arctic and alpine tundra, which is transforming these temperature-limited ecosystems and altering carbon and nutrient cycles, fire regimes, permafrost stability, land-surface climate-feedbacks, and wildlife habitat. Where and when Arctic shrub expansion happens in the future will depend in...

Arctic warming can influence tundra ecosystem function with consequences for climate feedbacks, wildlife and human communities. Yet ecological change across the Arctic tundra biome remains poorly quantified due to field measurement limitations and reliance on coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we assess decadal changes in Arctic tundra greenne...

The long-term satellite record (1982-2018) indicates "greening" across most Arctic tundra regions, especially Alaska's North Slope, mainland Canada, and the Russian Far East, but trends are not homogeneous, and some regions instead exhibit no trend or "browning," such as the Canadian Archipelago, southwestern Alaska, and parts of northwestern Siber...

The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific r...

As the Arctic warms, vegetation is responding, and satellite measures indicate widespread greening at high latitudes. This ‘greening of the Arctic’ is among the world’s most important large-scale ecological responses to global climate change. However, a consensus is emerging that the underlying causes and future dynamics of so-called Arctic greenin...

Plant traits—the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants—determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research sp...

The Arctic marine ecosystem and the communities that depend upon it continue to experience unprecedented changes as a result of warming air temperatures, declining sea ice, and warming waters. Arctic Report Card 2019 draws particular attention to the Bering Sea region, where declining winter sea ice exemplifies the potential for sudden and extreme...

Forest carbon sequestration via forest preservation can be a viable climate change mitigation strategy. Here we identify forests in the western conterminous United States with high potential carbon sequestration and low vulnerability to future drought and fire, as simulated using the Community Land Model and two high-carbon emission scenario (RCP 8...

Climate change is impacting forested ecosystems worldwide, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere where warming has increased at a faster rate than the rest of the globe. As climate warms, trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) is expected to become more successful in northern boreal forests because of its current presence in drier areas of North...

We report new data on tree-ring growth in northern European Russia, a region with a hitherto relatively sparse tree-ring network. We explore its associations with climate variability. Areas, sampling locations and trees were selected for representativeness rather than climate sensitivity. Using tree rings from 651 conifers from six widely dispersed...

The “greening of the Arctic” is among the world’s most significant large scale ecological responses to global climate change1. The Arctic has warmed at twice the rate of the rest of the planet on average in recent decades2 and satellite-derived vegetation indices have indicated widespread increases in productivity (termed “greening”) at high latitu...

Aim Plant functional groups are widely used in community ecology and earth system modelling to describe trait variation within and across plant communities. However, this approach rests on the assumption that functional groups explain a large proportion of trait variation among species. We test whether four commonly used plant functional groups rep...

Deciduous forests differ from evergreen in terms of carbon cycling, energy partitioning, and wildlife habitat use. Increased severity of fire disturbance and other factors associated with climate change can alter the vegetation deciduous fraction (DF), but maps of DF are limited in terms of spatial and temporal resolution and extent. In this study,...

Motivation: The Tundra Trait Team (TTT) database includes field‐based measurements of key traits related to plant form and function at multiple sites across the tundra biome. This dataset can be used to address theoretical questions about plant strategy and trade‐offs, trait–environment relationships and environmental filtering, and trait variation...

The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem...

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to cont...

The utility of plant functional traits for predictive ecology relies on our ability to interpret trait variation across multiple taxonomic and ecological scales. Using extensive data sets of trait variation within species, across species and across communities, we analysed whether and at what scales leaf economics spectrum (LES) traits show predict...

Arctic ecosystems are characterized by a broad range of plant functional types that are highly heterogeneous at small (~1–2 m) spatial scales. Climatic changes can impact vegetation distribution directly, and also indirectly via impacts on disturbance regimes. Consequent changes in vegetation structure and function have implications for surface ene...

Significance Regional quantification of feasibility and effectiveness of forest strategies to mitigate climate change should integrate observations and mechanistic ecosystem process models with future climate, CO 2 , disturbances from fire, and management. Here, we demonstrate this approach in a high biomass region, and found that reforestation, af...

Arctic tundra is becoming greener and shrubbier due to recent warming. This is impacting climate feedbacks and wildlife, yet the spatial distribution of plant biomass in tundra ecosystems is uncertain. In this study, we mapped plant and shrub aboveground biomass (AGB; kg m-2) and shrub dominance (%; shrub AGB / plant AGB) across the North Slope of...

Permafrost soils store between 1330 and 1580 Pg carbon (C), which is 3 times the amount of C in global vegetation, almost twice the amount of C in the atmosphere, and half of the global soil organic C pool. Despite the massive amount of C in permafrost, estimates of soil C storage in the high-latitude permafrost region are highly uncertain, primari...

High temperatures and severe drought contributed to extensive tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during the 2000s in parts of the western continental United States. Several states in this region have greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets and would benefit from information on the amount of carbon stored in tree biomass killed by disturbance....

Permafrost soils store between 1,330–1,580 Pg carbon (C), which is three times the amount of C in global vegetation, almost twice the amount of C in the atmosphere, and half of the global soil organic C pool. Despite the massive amount of C in permafrost, estimates of soil C storage in the high latitude permafrost region are highly uncertain, prima...

Boreal forest ecosystems are experiencing changes in plant productivity that are likely to continue with ongoing climate change. Transpiration (T) and canopy stomatal conductance (gc) are a key influence on plant productivity, and a better understanding of drivers and limitations of T and gc is necessary for constraining estimates of boreal ecosyst...

Water availability constrains the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems and is projected to change in many parts of the world over the coming century. We quantified the response of tree net primary productivity (NPP), live biomass (BIO), and mean carbon residence time (CRT = BIO / NPP) to spatial variation in water availability in the we...

Much of the western US is projected to become warmer and drier over the coming century, underscoring the need to understand how climate influences terrestrial ecosystems in this region. We quantified the response of tree net primary productivity (NPP), live biomass (BIO), and mean carbon residence time (CRT = BIO/NPP) to spatial variation in climat...

In arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems vegetation structural and functional influences on the surface energy balance can strongly influence permafrost soil temperatures. As such, vegetation changes will likely play an important role in permafrost soil carbon dynamics and associated climate feedbacks. Processes that lead to changes in vegetat...

Plant trait measurements are needed for evaluating ecological responses to environmental conditions and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization, and testing. We present a standardized dataset integrating measurements from projects conducted by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research and Regional Analysis- Pacific Northwest (TERRA-PNW)...

Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades, and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the tra...

Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the tran...

Tundra ecosystem fire regimes are intensifying with important implications for regional and global carbon (C) and energy dynamics. Although a substantial portion of the tundra biome is located in Russia the vast majority of studies accessible describe North American tundra fires. Here we use field observations and high-resolution satellite remote s...

Timeline of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites, carrying the AVHRR sensors used in the GIMMS record. Figure S2. Spectral response curves for the red and near-infrared (NIR) bands of the AVHRR, MODIS, SeaWiFS, and SPOT VGT sensors. Figure S3. A map of lag-1 autocorrelation for the GIMMS3g GS-NDVI time series. Figur...

Satellite-derived indices of photosynthetic activity are the primary data source used to study changes in global vegetation productivity over recent decades. Creating coherent, long-term records of vegetation activity from legacy satellite data sets requires addressing many factors that introduce uncertainties into vegetation index time series. We...

The snow-masking effect of vegetation exerts strong control on albedo in northern high latitude ecosystems. Large-scale changes in the distribution and stature of vegetation in this region will thus have important feedbacks to climate. The snow-albedo feedback is controlled largely by the contrast between snow-covered and snow-free albedo (Δα), whi...

Different methods have been developed for measuring carbon stocks and fluxes in the northern high latitudes, ranging from intensively measured small plots to space-based methods that use reflectance data to drive production efficiency models. The field of dendroecology has used samples of tree growth from radial increments to quantify long-term var...