Lincoln Kamau

Northeastern University | NEU · School of Education

Abstract The horn of Africa is becoming warmer in step with global climate change. The projected mean near surface temperature in the region is likely to increase by between 2 °C–3 °C by the year 2050. Additionally, the length of dry and wet spells is projected to increase and decrease respectively. The implications for a drier Horn of Africa are dire. Drought is all too familiar and endemic to the Horn of Africa. So is the human tragedy from the political instabilities and violence that comes alongside the regular droughts and hunger in this part of the world. For a region that spans across 7 countries (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda) and home to over 282 million people, the combined effects of extreme climate events such as the occurrence of heatwaves, floods, droughts, heavy rains, rising sea levels, fires and other ecological disruptions brought by climate change (e.g., crop failures, and shifting patterns of disease vectors) are going to disrupt traditional methods of livelihood in a region where pastoralism, rain-dependent agriculture, fishing and tourism are the primary sources of livelihood. Together with other drivers, these climate change factors could set states against states and communities against communities resulting in violent conflicts, and a humanitarian crisis. The Horn of African is already a fragile region fraught with poverty, violence, social insecurity and political anxiety. This project looks at the looming crisis if the climate change factors are not given the urgency they need is this part of the world and proposes ways that governments, international donors and humanitarians can take to address the chronic underlying issues and avert a disaster. Keywords: Climate Change, conflict, Drought, Horn of Africa, Weather extremes, violence.