Lilia Cavallari

Università Degli Studi Roma Tre | UNIROMA3 · Department of Political Sciences

This study explores the demand side of an international real business cycle model adopting additive intratemporal preferences over differentiated final goods and monopolistic competition. It shows that the structure of the demand system matters for macroeconomic dynamics by affecting firms’ pricing over time and across countries. The endogenous var...

This paper presents new evidence suggesting that the aggregate conditions faced by businesses in the year of birth affect their performance over the entire life cycle. Using a unique employer-employee dataset that covers the universe of Italian businesses over the period 1975-2017, we document that businesses born during recessions start on a large...

This paper puts to scrutiny the way monetary policy propagates its effects and the way it should be conducted, focusing on the behavior of consumers. Specifically, it considers a price elasticity of demand that increases with the level of consumption as is observed in the data. A realistic demand structure has remarkable implications for monetary p...

This paper studies the role of the exchange rate regime for trade of new products. It first provides VAR evidence that a rise in external productivity shifts trade away from new products and more so in fixed regimes. Then, it presents a model with firm dynamics in line with this evidence. We argue that exchange rate policy can affect firms’ entry d...

We use 4-digit data to document the role of world shocks for intensive and extensive margin of exports. We estimate a VAR model, where the endogenous bloc comprises bilateral export margins and relative GDP, and the exogenous bloc comprises disaggregated measures of world price shocks. We find that world shocks have a significant impact on both the...

This contribution provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that fiscal policy is largely anticipated and its effects depend on expectations. Based on a 2-country Bayesian VAR model between major European economies, we found that an unanticipated fiscal stimulus leads to expectations of strong deficit reversals. This in turn depresses domestic...

This paper puts to scrutiny the way monetary policy propagates its e¤ects and the way it should be conducted, focusing on the role of preferences. It provides a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with non-homothetic preferences belonging to the class of symmetric, directly additive aggregators, and compares the macro dynamics under a cons...

This paper studies the dynamics of output and export margins in the aftermath of global shocks in fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Using a panel vector autoregressive model with exogenous factors, it traces the mean responses of output, terms of trade, extensive and intensive margins to real and nominal shocks in 22 developed economies ove...

We generalize the demand side of a Real Business Cycle model introducing non-homothetic preferences over differentiated final goods. Under monopolistic competition this generates variable markups that depend on the level of consumption. We estimate a flexible preference specification through Bayesian methods and obtain countercyclical markups. The...

This study addresses the role of floating exchange rates as shock absorbers when trade involves previously traded goods (intensive margin) as well as new goods and previously non-traded goods (extensive margin). In a panel VAR model of 23 developed economies, we first document that adjustment to real shocks occurs mainly at the extensive margin and...

This paper studies the implications of entry costs for business formation in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous entry and exit. The paper first documents some facts about business formation in the US. Exit is more volatile than entry, both are more volatile than output and co-move over the cycle. Firms are less volatile...

This paper studies the dynamics of output and export margins in the aftermath of external shocks in fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Using a panel VARX model, it traces the mean responses of output, terms of trade, extensive and intensive margins to real and nominal shocks in 22 developed economies over the period 1988-2011. It finds remar...

This paper proposes a two-country monetary model with firm entry as a means for alleviating the comovement puzzles in international business cycle models. It shows that business formation can generate fluctuations in output, employment, investment and trade flows close to those in the datawhile at the sametimeproviding positive international comove...

This article investigates the role of output fluctuations and exchange rate volatility in driving US FDIs. Using a sample of 46 economies over the period 1982 to 2009, we provide the evidence of a positive relation between US FDI and host country’s cyclical conditions. Allowing for asymmetry over the business cycle, we find that the output elastici...

This paper examines the role of country-specific sources of output and interest rate or exchange rate volatility in driving FDI activities. Building on a dataset with bilateral FDI flows among 24 OECD economies over the period 1985-2007, we find that nominal and real volatility strongly deter foreign investments. Output and exchange rate volatility...

This paper studies how trade margins respond to output and terms of trade shocks in different exchange rate regimes within a panel of 23 OECD economies over the period 1988-2011. Using a panel VAR model, we confirm the predic-tions of entry models about the behaviour of export margins over the cycle. In addition, we find remarkable differences depe...

This paper studies the business cycle implications of entry costs in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with firm entry and nominal rigidity. Simulations show that my baseline model matches the dynamics observed in the data fairly well. Remarkably, it overcomes the difficulties common to standard business cycle and endogenous entry mode...

This paper introduces a contract between the government and trade unions in a model of strategic wage bargaining à la Lippi (2003). It shows that an optimal contract can be implemented through an appropriately defined inflation target.

This note studies the synchronization of firm entry and markups in a DSGE model with nominal frictions. Simulations show that the model matches the comovement of markups and entry observed in the data while at the same time reproducing empirically plausible moments for macroeconomic variables. I stress that sticky prices are essential for these res...

This paper proposes a two-country monetary model with firm entry as a means for alleviating the comovement puzzles in international business cycle models. It shows that business formation can generate fluctuations in output, employment, investment and trade flows close to those in the data while at the same time providing positive international com...

This article examines the role of country-specific sources of output and interest rate or exchange rate volatility in driving Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) activities. Building on a dataset with bilateral FDI flows among 24 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies over the period 1985–2007, we find that nominal and...

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of alternative policy regimes in a closed economy where a central bank, a fiscal authority and a monopoly union interact via their effects on output and inflation. The analysis compares macroeconomic outcomes in a non-cooperative setting, where players may move sequentially or simultaneously, and in...

Drawing on a tractable DSGE model with nominal rigidity, this paper studies the implications of firms’ entry in domestic and foreign markets for the international business cycle. The paper shows that the decision to enter a new market as well as the choice whether to invest at home or abroad depend on global monetary and productivity conditions. I...

This paper examines how differences in the integration strategies followed by firms active in foreign markets affect the way productivity and policy shocks spread their effects worldwide. The analysis incorporates costly trade and local sales by multinational firms in a general-equilibrium open economy macroeconomic model. The mode of foreign marke...

This paper provides a framework for the analysis of firms' integration strategies that incorporates the endogenous determination of the number of firms that serve foreign markets through exports and the number of multinational firms that choose to engage in horizontal foreign direct investments. The aim of the study is to investigate how difference...

This chapter analyses the macroeconomic consequences of a “social pact” among the government, trade unions and employers’ associations aimed at keeping the growth in domestic wages and prices in line with the government’s inflation target in a country belonging to a monetary union. We demonstrate that an outward-looking social pact which targets un...

This paper provides a framework for the analysis of firms' integration strategies that incorporates the endogenous determination of the number of firms that serve foreign markets through exports and the number of multinational firms that choose to engage in horizontal foreign direct investments. The aim of the study is to investigate how difference...

This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of different regimes of international fiscal coordination and monetary-fiscal cooperation in a monetary union with independent fiscal authorities, that act strategically vis-à-vis a common central bank. In the presence of other policy goals than cyclical stabilization, such as interest rate smo...

This paper explores the implications of international location of production for the optimal design of monetary policy in a framework that allows for price discrimination across international markets. By introducing multinational production in a dynamic open economy, the paper shows that optimal monetary rules do not react to foreign cyclical condi...

Building on a micro-founded model of a two-region monetary union, this paper analyses the macroeconomic impact of institutional reforms in labour markets and central banking that may occur as a result of monetary unification. The paper shows that monopoly distortions in the labour market are a key factor in evaluating the effects of central bank’s...

The theoretical part of this paper analyses the positive and normative effects of a surprise monetary expansion in a small open economy characterized by imperfect competition and short-run price rigidity in the domestic sector. The temporary output boom fostered by the monetary expansion is shown to come at the cost of a permanent squeeze of the do...

This paper analyses the impact of trade openness on inflation in a strategic framework characterised by monopolistic production in the domestic sector and unionised labour markets. By stressing the interplay between internal and external sources of economic distortion, we show that the economy's inflationary bias reduces up to a critical level of t...

Building on a micro-founded model of a two-region monetary union, this paperanalyses the macroeconomic impact of institutional reforms in labour marketsand central banking that may occur as a result of monetary unification. Thepaper shows that monopoly distortions in the labour market are a key factorin evaluating the effects of central bank's cons...

As of 1 January 1999, the introduction of the euro has brought about the definite vanishing of independent fluctuations in the national European ex­change rates with the US dollar. As a consequence, the economies in the European Monetary Union (EMU) have given up a potential means for ab­sorbing asymmetric shocks not only inside EMU, but also with...

Building on a micro-founded model of a two region-world economy in the tradition of the new open economy literature, this paper analyses the strategic interaction of large wage-setters and the central bank when switching from a regime of uncoordinated national monetary policies to a monetary union. The establishment of a monetary union is shown to...

This note generalizes to second generation models of currency crises the arbitrage-based approach first applied by Flood and Garber to first generation models. Deriving policy-switching rules based on the ‘shadow exchange rate’ facilitates the comparative analysis of the literature. Using the ‘shadow rate’, we provide and discuss an example of a co...

This paper discusses within a common analytical framework the logical and analytical links between theories of exchange rate crises that model the abandonment of a peg as an optimizing decision by rational policy makers, and theories that focus on the dynamics of speculative attacks when policies are incoherent with the indefinite defense of the cu...

This paper provides a framework for the analysis of …rms'integra- tion strategies that incorporates the endogenous determination of the number of …rms that serve foreign markets through exports and the number of multinational …rms that choose to engage in horizontal for- eign direct investments. Our aim is to investigate how dierences in …rms'integ...

In his seminal contribution on exchange rate crises, Krugman mod- els speculative attacks as optimal market reactions to policy rules that are inconsistent with the inde…nite survival of a …xed nominal parity. Later contributions have shifted the focus of the analysis, modelling exchange rate crises as rational decisions by optimizing policy mak- e...

Drawing on a tractable DSGE model with nominal rigidity, this paper studies the implications of firms’ entry in domestic and foreign markets for the international business cycle. The paper shows that the decision to enter a new market as well as the choice whether to invest at home or abroad depend on global monetary and productivity conditions. I...