Leonid Grinin

Leonid Grinin
National Research University Higher School of Economics | HSE · Laboratory for Destabilization Risk Monitoring

PhD

About

299
Publications
216,378
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Introduction
My academic interests lie in the sphere of global technological trends, social laws, social evolution, driving forces of historical development, cyclical trends and patterns, the theory of historical process, evolution of statehood, Global Studies, globalization and modernization, forecasts of the world political and social-economic development, information-scientific revolution and its influence on global processes, comparison of global processes in nature and society.
Additional affiliations
August 2014 - present
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Position
  • Leading Researcher
May 2009 - present
Russian Academy of Sciences
Position
  • Senior Researcher

Publications

Publications (299)
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The article deals with important theoretical problems of social evolution. In the authors' opinion, a number of general evolutionary ideas, principles and conclusions formulated in the article may be significant for the study of not only social evolution but also of evolution as such. The authors' basic ideas and principles are as follows: Evolutio...
Article
We are speaking here about the system that originated in the early Holocene in the Middle East in direct connection with the start of the Agrarian ("Neolithic") revolution, and that eventually encompassed the whole world. With Andre Gunder Frank (1990, 1993) we denote this system as "the World System". As we have shown (Korotayev, Malkov, and Khalt...
Article
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The general process of the growth of sociocultural complexity was multidimensional and multilinear. That is why the evolutionary phase of medium-complex societies (where the chiefdoms are most often observed) was represented by numerous types of societies. The article is devoted to the analysis of chiefdom analogues, or various evolutionary alterna...
Article
This article analyzes some important aspects of socioeconomic and political development of the world in the near future. The future always stems from the present. The first part of the article is devoted to the study of some crucial events of the present,which could be regarded as precursors of forthcoming fundamental changes. In particular, it is...
Article
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There are very significant conceptual links between theories of social macroevolution and theories of theWorld System development. It is shown that the growth of the World System complexity and integrity can be traced through a system of phase transitions of macroevolution. The first set of phase transition is connected with the agrarian, industria...
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In the article, the authors pose and consider in detail the extremely topical question of whether capitalism has a future or will it be replaced by some new system. And if there is a future, then what kind of future is it? These are not new questions, but in the last few years they have acquired exceptional importance, since not only the left, but...
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The 20th century revolutionary process had a big impact on the World System and significantly changed its entire configuration. However, there are essential gaps in terms of theoretical approaches, in particular, in terms of the typology of revolutions. Moreover, there is clearly insufficient research related to qualitative and quantitative analysi...
Article
Статья предлагает предварительное описание трех революционных волн XXI в., их ключевых характеристик и причин. Одна из целей данной статьи – развить аналитические инструменты, в частности углубить понимание самого понятия революции и революционных событий, а также типологию революционных событий. В целом настоящая статья предлагает теоретический и...
Article
In this paper, we report the inverted U-shaped relationship between the regime type (on the autocracy — democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Autocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or consolidated democracies. We would also point at a strong positive correlation betwe...
Book
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Настоящий ежегодник представляет собой одиннадцатый том «Системного мониторинга глобальных и региональных рисков», подготовленный в рамках Программы Института Африки РАН «Дестабилизационные процессы на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке в контексте глобального развития и национальных интересов России» (руководитель – профессор А. В. Коротаев). Мон...
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Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near future. This impact is determined by the growing need for the development of a number of areas in medicine, bio- and...
Article
The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to become one of the turning points in the transformation of the world order, as well as many political, social and other relations in the World System. Undoubtedly, we live in a fast-changing world, when it is imperative to look beyond the horizon of current events in order to understand what tomorrow may bring. In...
Article
Cyborgization is a hot topic these days. This is an intriguing process that is the subject of many futuristic novels and which at the same time takes place right before our eyes. In the present article we discuss the development of cyborgization, its place in Big History, its background and future directions, as well as the problems and risks of th...
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Previous studies have revealed a somewhat paradoxical strong positive correlation between per capita GDP and the intensity of anti-government demonstrations observed for the vast majority of countries (indeed, it turns out that the better people live, the more likely they are to join anti-government protests). The goal of this article is to identif...
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In the paper Islamism is described as a multi-faceted, multi-dimensional, changing and inconsistent phenomenon. Islamism possesses many levels and manifestations. It is impossible to comprehend modern Muslim (and all the more Arab) societies without an account of the impact of Islam as simultaneously an ideology, cultural environment, modus agenda...
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Over a long period, the main intrigue within the current global contradiction has been the resistance of most of the world community to the growing egoism of the USA, which is not willing to consider other countries’ interests. This has become even more evident since Donald Trump's rise to power, as the frontline of the contradictions has expanded...
Preprint
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The weakening of the world economy, as well as the economies of high-income OECD countries, in comparison with the 2000s and even the 2010s, fits perfectly into the concept of a more crisis-depressive phase of the development in the global economy in the downswing phases of Kondratieff waves. Accordingly, at the moment we are experiencing the downs...
Article
The authors quantitatively analyse the long-term dynamics of technological progress from 40,000 BCE and offer projections through the 22nd century. We provide one method to measure technological progress over that time period, using a simple hyperbolic equation, yt = C/(t0 – t), as our model. We define yt as the technological growth rate, measured...
Chapter
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In this chapter, we consider the process of technological progress presenting one of the options for measuring its speed throughout the entire historical process. We find that the general dynamics of accelerating technological growth over the past 40 thousand years can be described with amazing accuracy (R² = 0.99) using the following simplest hype...
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The present paper analyzes the evolution of technology from the beginning of human history. We introduce a new paradigm to analyze the causes and trends of the global evolution. We describe the direction of technological transformations and discuss and explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. We also present a detailed analysis of...
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The chiefdom concept is one of the most productive in social anthropology and political evolution. It helps to deeply understand the process of complication of society's structure and the development path from stateless society to early states. However, even when states spread everywhere, chiefdoms still remained political and administrative actors...
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From the very beginning, our Yearbook 'Evolution' has been devoted to searching for the common ground at different levels of development, to gradual elaboration of a mega-evolutionary paradigm (see Grinin et al. 2009), as well as to considering features of various evolutionary phenomena. As a matter of fact, in speaking of similarities, one should...
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Our Yearbook ‘History and Mathematics’ has already celebrated its 10th anniversary and has confidently entered its second decade. In this regard it will be quite reasonable to try to extend the scope of its research field. Therefore, this issue is designed in an unusual manner while still preserving the relevance for our approach (see about it belo...
Book
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Our Yearbook ‘History and Mathematics’ has already celebrated its 10th anniversary and has confidently entered its second decade. The common feature of all our Yearbooks, including the present volume, is the usage of formal methods and social studies methods in their synthesis to analyze different historical phenomena. The present Yearbook (which i...
Article
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The present paper analyzes the evolution of technology from the beginning of the human history. A new paradigm to analyze the causes and trends of the global evolution is introduced. We also describe the direction of technological transformations, discuss and explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. Our analysis of technological e...
Article
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In the present article Kondratieff waves theory is considered in comparison with the theory of production revolutions which analyzes the regularities of the major technological breakthroughs in history. Both theories analyze the processes of cyclic nature related to the innovative technological development of the World-System. The mutual comparison...
Chapter
The early modern period witnessed the emergence of a number of processes and institutions that were to acquire global scale and have a significant impact on the structure of globalization. In this chapter, we will focus on three processes. The first is related to the invention of the printing press, which triggered the Second Information Revolution...
Chapter
The nineteenth century was a major watershed in the Big History storyline in general and in the history of globalization in particular. This watershed is related to the modern Technological Revolution that brought profound changes to nearly all spheres of human life. In this chapter, we will touch upon some of the changes that were most relevant to...
Chapter
Various parts of the early modern world developed in remarkable synchrony. For most regions, the sixteenth century was marked by a significant increase in population, GDP, number of cities and their inhabitants, trade volume, and so on. This growth was energized by intense contacts between the Old and New Worlds and the respective global diffusion...
Chapter
In the previous chapter we noted that globalization in the nineteenth century heavily contributed to the global spread of European modernity. In this chapter, we will focus on some of the most prominent political aspects of this modernity, which came to acquire a global character in the twentieth century. In the sphere of politics some of the most...
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This chapter examines several consecutive periods of the earliest history of globalization. In the ninth to seventh millennia bce, an Afro-Eurasian network emerged. Although it formed slowly and was a loose entity, it nevertheless functioned as a means of spreading innovation. Indeed, it transmitted information and ideas from one society to another...
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This chapter views the trend and cyclic components of the major absolute and relative indicators of world dynamics. We show that the second millennium ce saw a rather remarkable change in the trends of technological development, population and GDP dynamics as compared to the first millennium ce. While the growth of relative indicators (first of all...
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Numerous approaches to studying globalization co-exist in global research of the phenomenon, which is perfectly understandable, as the multitude of its manifestations permeate nearly all spheres of human life from the individual level to the whole world. In this book we choose to view the history of globalization along the Big History lines, tracin...
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The nineteenth century witnessed some profound transformations in the sociocultural sphere that started in the World System core countries and later gradually acquired global scale, as globalization carried European sociocultural modernity to the colonies, as well as to the independent semi-peripheral and peripheral states. Critically important cha...
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This chapter centers on two separate yet interrelated questions: (1) How old is the global world? (2) How old is globalization? To answer the first question, we will use a set of criteria developed in the framework of world-systems analysis. As for the second question, in line with existing approaches, we will identify four stages of the history of...
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The period from 1870 to the beginning of the First World War is commonly referred to as the first “golden age” of globalization. The most important manifestations of this wave of globalization can be found in the dramatic intensification of global flows of capital, goods, and migrants. A truly global market for capital emerged (to which the spread...
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This book on globalization sets its theme within the framework of deep time—without hesitation and on the largest possible scales. It asks, in effect, what “globalization” looks like if you ask your question within the framework of a universal history of humanity, the biosphere and even the cosmos. Why set the subject of globalization within such a...
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This chapter is divided into two parts. First, we will view the structure and dynamics of the Afro-Eurasian world-system in the centuries preceding the Age of Discovery. We will give particular attention to the issues of this world-system’s connectivity and prerequisites to its subsequent global expansion. Second, we will view the main directions o...
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This chapter offers an analysis of the conditions in the MENA countries on the eve of the Arab Spring in the World System perspective, as well as causes (internal and external, general and specific) and certain consequences of the Arab revolutions in certain countries, the MENA region and in the World System. We will discuss Arab revolutions in a w...
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The events of the Arab Spring can be analyzed in two dimensions: first, with respect to internal and global causes and second, in terms of their influence on the future scenarios of the World System development. Such a view we use in this concluding chapter. We explain the amazing synchronization of social upheavals in a dozen of Arab countries bas...
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A multifaceted, multidimensional, changing, and inconsistent Islamism is a subject under study in this chapter. It is impossible to comprehend modern Muslim societies without an account of the impact of Islam on all sides of life. It would be a mistake to present Islamism as a node on the body of Muslim societies. In fact, Islamism in many respects...
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This chapter is devoted to a systemic consideration of the preconditions for the emergence of modern Islamism in the Middle East. Since Islamism is spread almost in every country of the Middle East, it seems reasonable to formulate some ideas explaining its widespread influence in this part of the world through a comparative analysis of some develo...
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In this chapter, we will continue to discuss Arab revolutions in a wide historical and theoretical context. However, this chapter discusses the Arab revolutions in some other aspects as the previous one, especially as regards issues of democratic transitions and value orientations. In this chapter, we do not preserve a chronological sequence and fo...
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This chapter provides a preliminary analysis and explanations for the topics and problems that are explored in the book. In particular, the complexities and contradictions in the use of the concepts of Islamism, radical Islamism, and moderate Islamism are shown. One of the ideas that we argue is that, under certain conditions (in particular, a stro...
Article
В статье анализируется ряд политических аспектов современного исламизма. Авторы показывают, как ведет себя исламизм в оппозиции (где он чувствует себя увереннее) и что случается, когда исламисты приходят к власти легитимным путем. Исламизм – это не нечто поверхностное, а глубинная и всеобъемлющая субстанция исламских обществ, поэтому крайне важно р...
Book
This book presents the history of globalization as a network-based story in the context of Big History. Departing from the traditional historic discourse, in which communities, cities, and states serve as the main units of analysis, the authors instead trace the historical emergence, growth, interconnection, and merging of various types of networks...
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The year 2017 marked not only the hundredth anniversary of the Revolution of 1917, but also the 500th anniversary of the beginning of the Reformation in Germany. It was just the Reformation that gave start to modern revolutions in Europe and the world. In the first part of the article we analyze the course of transformation of revolutions within hi...
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Section 1 of this article presents a mathematical analysis of the long­term global urbanization dynamics and demonstrates that it could be described as a series of phase transitions between attraction basins. This makes it possible to suggest new approaches to the analysis of global social macroevolution. Section 2 presents a three­stage model of t...
Article
The modern deflationary phenomena in the western and global economy are attributed to the fact that currently it is at the downward phase of the fifth long K-wave. Deflation has always been typical for the depressive periods in economy; presently it also manifests itself as the world economy has turned global, yet it lacks any control mechanisms. T...
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Big History has been developing very fast indeed. We are currently observing a ‘Cambrian explosion’ in terms of its popularity and diffusion. Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of several dozen countries, including China, Korea, the Netherlands, the USA, India, Russia, Japan, Australia, Great Britain, Germany, and many m...
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Big History provides a unique opportunity to consider the development of the Universe as a single process. Within Big History studies one can distinguish some common evolutionary laws and principles. However, it is very important to recognize that there are many more such integrating principles, laws, mechanisms and patterns of evolution at all its...
Book
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The present yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. It is devoted to cyclical and trend dynamics in society and nature; special attention is paid to economic and demographic aspects, in particular to the mathematical modeling of the Malthusian and post-Malthusian traps' dynamics. An increasingly important role is...
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In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperboli...
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Настоящий стратегический анализ представляет собой ис- следование проблем и систему конкретных социально-эконо- мических рекомендаций, способных не только минимизиро- вать возникшие угрозы и риски, но и реально укрепить эко- номическое и политическое могущество России, повысить уровень ее суверенности, международного авторитета и вли- яния. Конкрет...
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This article analyzes the global causes of the contemporary crisis and the possibilities to eliminate the most acute problems that have generated this crisis. It analyzes both the negative role of the world financial flows and their important positive functions including the ‘insurance’ of social guaranties at the global scale. In connection with t...
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Each scientific study emerges in its own particular time and marks a new step in the development of human thought.1 Big History materialized to satisfy the human need for a unified vision of our existence. It came together in the waning decades of the twentieth century, in part, as a reaction to the specialization of scholarship and education that...
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This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for the countries unprepared for it. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian...
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Процесс старения населения захватил не только развитые страны, но и многие развивающиеся, превратившись в глобальный. Представляется, что он будет одним из самых важных процессов в ближайшие десятилетия, определяющим облик общества буду-щего и направление развития технологий. В статье дается анализ некоторых параметров процесса старения населения,...
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The present volume is the fourth issue of the Almanac series entitled ‘Evolu-tion’. Thus, one can maintain that our Almanac, which has actually turned into a Yearbook, has succeeded (see below). The title of the present volume is ‘From Big Bang to Nanorobots’. In this way we demonstrate that all phases of megaevolution and Big History are cov-ered...
Book
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Дестабилизация или хотя бы ее угроза – неизбежная фаза развития любого обще- ства. Настоящая работа является попыткой учесть, насколько это возможно, влияние некоторых политических и экономических факторов, как внешних, так и внутренних, на возможную дестабилизацию в различных обществах. Монография состоит из десяти глав, объединенных в пять частей...
Presentation
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Presentation is dedicated to the consideration of the form and characterisrics of the ancient democracy in Athenes and Roman Republic. More other, the author also highlights the problem of stateness of this ancient societies. The author argues that Athens and the Roman Republic should be treated as early states, but not as a specific type of state...
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The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present chapter we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main p...