Leonardo Rafael López

Leonardo Rafael López
Instituto de Salud Global de Barcelona | ISGLOBAL · Climate and Health

PhD in engineering

About

19
Publications
8,245
Reads
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569
Citations
Additional affiliations
May 2017 - October 2019
National Scientific and Technical Research Council
Position
  • Fellow
April 2012 - February 2016
National Scientific and Technical Research Council
Position
  • PhD Student
January 2012 - February 2016
National Scientific and Technical Research Council
Position
  • PhD Student

Publications

Publications (19)
Article
Full-text available
The transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which incorporates hydroclimatic variables for the three...
Article
Full-text available
The roles of climate and true seasonal signatures in the epidemiology of emergent pathogens, and that of SARS-CoV-2 in particular, remain poorly understood. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show, for COVID-19 cases, strong consistent negative effects of both temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial...
Preprint
The transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which incorporates hydroclimatic variables for the three...
Preprint
Full-text available
The transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible Infectious Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which incorporates hydroclimatic variables for the three...
Article
Climate change can both facilitate zoonotic spillovers and have an effect on transmission chains. These effects, alongside human behavior and awareness, need to be integrated in pandemic forecasting models.
Article
Full-text available
After the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic out of China, evolution in the pandemic worldwide shows dramatic differences among countries. In Europe, the situation of Italy first and later Spain has generated great concen, and despite other countries show better prospects, large uncertainties yet remain on the future evolution and the efficacy of co...
Preprint
Full-text available
It's well known the existence of an interplay between the spread of an infectious disease like influenza and behavioral changes of individuals. An outbreak can trigger behavioral responses, at the group and individual levels, which in turn can influence the course of the epidemic. Daily life interactions can be modeled by adaptive temporal networks...
Article
Full-text available
The dynamic of infectious disease is the result of the interplay between the spread of pathogens and individuals’ behaviour. This interaction can be modelled through a network of interdependent dynamical blocks with multiple feedback connections. Epidemic outbreaks trigger behavioural responses, at the group and individual levels, which in turn inf...
Article
Full-text available
The lack of effective pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 raises the possibility of COVID-19 recurrence. We explore different post-confinement scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered) model that accounts for the spread of infection during the latent period and also incorporates time-decaying e...
Preprint
After the spread of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic out of China, the world approaches the 2 million declared infected cases and death toll rises well above the 100 thousand. The course of pandemic evolution has shown great differences among countries and not much is yet known about the level of generated immunity, which might appear not to be long-lasting. In...
Preprint
Full-text available
After the spread of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic out of China, evolution in the pandemic worldwide shows dramatic differences among countries. In Europe, the situation of Italy first and later Spain has generated great concern, and despite other countries show better prospects, large uncertainties yet remain on the future evolution and the efficacy of conta...
Article
Full-text available
There is an interplay between the spread of infectious disease and the behaviour of individuals that can be modelled through a series of interconnected dynamical feedback blocks. Specifically, the outbreak of an infectious disease can trigger behavioural responses, at the group and individual levels, which in turn influences the epidemic evolution....
Article
Full-text available
The genus Philornis comprises neotropical parasitic flies that parasites bird nestlings in their larval stage. The ecology of most species of these parasitic flies is largely unknown. Here we present an epidemiological model that describes the behavior of parasite and host populations. The model was validated with real data of nestlings of the bird...
Article
Full-text available
The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based oncellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection ofsimple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergentbehaviour resulting from the interaction of the o...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Compartmental models are very popular in epidemiology (8), they provide excellent results when the populations satisfy certain hypotheses as large population size or population homogeneity (11), the complexity of this models is low making their analysis intuitive. In the other hand, they ignore important factors inherent to the problem, such as the...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Compartmental models are very popular in epidemiology. One of the reason for such popularity is the excellent results obtained when the populations satisfy the building hypotheses (large populations , individual uniformity and appropriate structure), while the complexity of the resulting model is low. Besides, the ease of analysis, the wide variety...

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