Leonardo Gambacorta

Bank for International Settlements · Monetary and Economic Department

We examine whether the level of environmental disclosure in financial reports equates with less brown lending by banks. We use granular credit register data and detailed information on the firm-level intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and find a negative relationship. This relationship is contingent on the tone of the financial report: a negativ...

Generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) introduces novel opportunities to strengthen central banks’ cyber security but also presents new risks. This article uses data from a unique survey among cyber security experts at major central banks to shed light on these issues. Responses reveal that most central banks have already adopted or plan to ad...

Banks with a low price-to-book ratio (PBR) have a greater propensity to pay out dividends. This propensity is especially marked for banks with a PBR below a threshold of 0.7, a situation that characterizes many banks in recent years, especially in the euro area. We demonstrate these features using data for 271 advanced economy banks in 29 jurisdict...

This paper analyzes the links between advances in financial technology, investors’ sophistication, and the composition and returns of their financial portfolios. We develop a simple portfolio choice model under asymmetric information and derive some theoretical predictions. Using detailed microdata from Banca d’Italia, we test these predictions for...

Over 50 countries have introduced regulatory sandboxes to foster financial innovation. This paper conducts the first evaluation of their ability to improve fintechs’ access to capital and attendant real effects. Exploiting the staggered introduction of the UK sandbox, we establish that firms entering the sandbox see an increase of 15% in capital ra...

We empirically investigate whether financial structures affect income inequality. Using panel data for 97 economies covering above two decades preceding the FinTech surge we uncover a non-monotonic relationship. More finance reduces income inequality up to a certain point, beyond which inequality rises if finance expands via market-based financing,...

Fintech and big tech companies are making rapid inroads into credit markets. We hand construct a global database of fintech and big tech lending volumes for 79 countries over 2013-2018. Using a panel regression analysis, we find these new forms of digital lending are larger in countries with higher GDP per capita (albeit at a declining rate), where...

This paper analyses the role of financial development and financial technology in driving inequality in (returns to) wealth. Using micro data from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth conducted by the Bank of Italy for the period 1991–2016, we find that wealthy households achieve higher returns than other households. With an instrumental varia...

Three types of digital platforms are expanding in financial services: (i) fintech entrants; (ii) big tech firms; and (iii) increasingly, incumbent financial institutions with platform-based business models. These platforms can dramatically lower costs and thereby aid financial inclusion—but these same features can give rise to digital monopolies an...

In just a few years, central banks have rapidly ramped up their research and development efforts on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). A growing body of economic research informs these activities, often focusing on the “reserves for all” aspect of CBDCs for retail use. However, CBDCs should be considered in the full context of the digital eco...

Using a unique dataset of more than 2 million Chinese firms that received credit from both an important big tech firm (Ant Group) and traditional commercial banks, this paper investigates how different forms of credit correlate with local economic activity, house prices, and firm characteristics. We find that big tech credit does not correlate with...

Cyber incidents are becoming more sophisticated and their costs difficult to quantify. Using a unique database of cyber events across sectors in the US, we document the characteristics and drivers of cyber incidents. Cyber costs are higher for larger firms and for incidents that impact several organisations simultaneously. Events with malicious int...

The present paper reviews the use of big data in Asian central banks, leveraging on a survey conducted by the Irving Fischer Committee on Central Bank Statistics (IFC) of the Bank for International Settlements. It reveals four main insights. First, Asian central banks define big data in an encompassing way. Second, they show higher interest in big...

Does having more women in managerial positions improve firm environmental performance? We match firm-corporate governance characteristics with firm-level carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over the period 2009-2019 to study the relationship between gender diversity in the workplace and firm carbon emissions. We find that a 1 percentage point increase i...

This paper investigates whether foreign banks help mitigate the effects of domestic liquidity shocks by exploiting a policy-induced shock to the U.S. wholesale market for liquidity and matched bank-syndicated loan data. We find that, following the 2011 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) regulatory change to the cost of wholesale liquidity...

Can higher technological capacity help firms to recover quicker from recessions? Analyzing the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on firm revenues in several countries, we find that firms headquartered in jurisdictions with better digital infrastructure generated relatively higher revenue during the shock period. Improving a country’s technological c...

Using supervisory data, we test the tax effects on the liability structure (the composition of deposits and other forms of debt) of the credit cooperative banks (BCC) by exploiting exogenous variations in the rates of tax on productive activities (IRAP) across Italian regions and over time. The testable predictions are derived from a model of bank...

This paper studies the real effects of relationship lending on firm activity in Italy following Lehman Brothers’ default shock and Europe's sovereign debt crisis, two different crisis situations where in the latter, bank solvency was at the centre of the economic shock while being more peripheral in the former. We use a large data set that merges t...

We build a model of the mortgage market in which banks attain their optimal mortgage portfolio by setting rates and steering customers. Sophisticated households know which mortgage type is best for them; naive households are susceptible to banks’ steering. Using data on the universe of Italian mortgages, we estimate the model and quantify the welfa...

We explore the link between firms' dollar bond borrowing and their FX-hedged funding opportunities, as reflected in a positive corporate basis (the relative cost of local to synthetic currency borrowing). We first document that firms substitute domestic for dollar borrowing when the corporate basis widens. Additionally, we find that when these fund...

We study the effects of coordinated and noncoordinated macroprudential policies in a core–periphery model that emphasizes the role of international financial centers. After documenting empirically the existence of cross‐country macroprudential spillovers and policy interdependence, we derive a number of results. First, even absent financial frictio...

The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) measure for financial stability indicates how severe a recession could become in an extreme situation where future output growth falls into the 5th percentile of the distribution. In this letter, we estimate the effects of macroprudential policies on GaR by combining quantile regressions with local projections in a panel da...

This paper investigates how bank-specific characteristics have affected credit growth in five Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). We use detailed credit registry data and apply a common empirical strategy to analyse the pre- and post-crisis periods. We find that large and well-capitalised banks with low risk indicat...

This paper summarises the results of a joint research project by five central banks in Latin America countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) to evaluate the effectiveness of macroprudential tools and their interaction with monetary policy. Using meta-analysis techniques, we summarise the results of a common empirical framework base...

This paper investigates how a prolonged period of low‐interest rates affects bank intermediation activity. We use data for 113 large international banks headquartered in 14 major advanced economies during the period 1994–2015. We find that low‐interest rates induce banks to shift their activities from interest‐generating to fee‐related and trading...

The sensitivities of the main global liquidity components, international loan and bond flows, to global factors varied considerably over the past decade. The estimated sensitivity to US monetary policy rose substantially in the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, peaked around the time of the 2013 Fed “taper tantrum”, and then rever...

This paper assesses whether compensation practices for bank Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) changed after the Financial Stability Board (FSB) issued post-crisis guidelines on sound compensation. CEO compensation has become more sensitive to risk, with CEOs in the post-reform period at riskier banks receiving less variable compensation than those at...

Pablo Zbinden?>We consider the drivers and implications of the growth of ‘BigTech’ in finance – i.e. the financial services offerings of technology companies with established presence in the market for digital services. BigTech firms often start with payments. Thereafter, some expand into the provision of credit, insurance and money management prod...

This paper analyses how non-performing loans (NPLs) in the emerging economy of India behave through the cycle. We find that a one-percentage point increase in loan growth is associated with an increase in NPLs over total advances (NPL ratio) of 4.1% in the long run with the response being higher during expansionary phases. Furthermore, NPL ratios o...

Using a simple New Keynesian model of a monetary union that incorporates financial frictions, we show that country-targeted macroprudential policy could complement a single monetary policy at the union level. In particular, macroprudential policy helps taming financial and economic imbalances in the presence of countercyclical financial shocks and...

Using matched borrower-lender data, we document strong nonprice supplier effects in mortgage contract choice. For given relative price of adjustable and fixed rate mortgages, households borrowing from banks hit by shocks to the cost of long term funding, or to the deposits base or to access to securitization are more likely to choose adjustable rat...

This paper summarises the results of a joint research project by eight central banks in the Americas region to evaluate the effectiveness of macroprudential tools and their interaction with monetary policy. In particular, using meta-analysis techniques, we summarise the results for five Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico...

We empirically examine the relationship between financial development and income inequality in a cross section of 97 developed and emerging countries from the late 1980s to 2012. we find that financial development has a nonlinear relationship with inequality: at relatively low levels, more financial development associates with lowering inequality b...

This paper investigates the foreign funding mix of globally active banks. Using BIS international banking statistics for a panel of 12 advanced economies, we detect a structural break in international bank funding at the onset of the great financial crisis. In their postbreak business model, banks rely less on cross‐border liabilities and, instead,...

This paper investigates the effects of macroprudential policies on bank risk through a large panel of banks operating in 61 advanced and emerging market economies. There are three main findings. First, there is evidence suggesting that macroprudential tools have a significant impact on bank risk. Second, the responses to changes in macroprudential...

This paper investigates how monetary policy affects bank profitability. We use data for 109 large international banks headquartered in 14 major advanced economies for the period 1995–2012. Overall, we find a positive relationship between the level of short-term rates and the slope of the yield curve (the ‘interest rate structure’, for short), on th...

This paper analyses the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending in a low interest rate environment. Based on a sample of 108 large international banks, our empirical analysis suggests that monetary policy is less effective in stimulating bank lending growth when interest rates reach a very low level. This result holds after controlling for...

This paper examines the effects of taxation on the liability structure of banks. We derive testable predictions from a dynamic model of optimal bank liability structure that incorporates bank runs, regulatory closure and endogenous default. Using the supervisory data provided by the Bank of Italy, we empirically test these predictions by exploiting...

We study how relationship lending and transaction lending vary over the business cycle. We develop a model in which relationship banks gather information on their borrowers, allowing them to provide loans to profitable firms during a crisis. Because of the services they provide, operating costs of relationship banks are higher than those of transac...

One aim of post-crisis monetary policy has been to ease credit conditions for borrowers by unlocking bank lending. We find that bank equity is an important determinant of both the bank's funding cost and its lending growth. In a cross-country bank-level study, we find that a 1 percentage point increase in the equity-to-total assets ratio is associa...

This paper analyses how the new Basel III leverage ratio and risk-weighted regulatory capital ratio behave over the cycle. The analysis proposes a set-up to test for the cyclical properties of bank capital ratios, taking into account structural shifts in banks’ behaviour during the global financial crisis and its aftermath. Using a large data set c...

In this article, I try to answer three questions: (1) How do relationship lending and transaction lending vary over the cycle? (2) How do economic systems that are more “bank oriented” perform compared to “market-oriented” systems? (3) What are the consequences on relationship banking of the recent structural bank regulation reforms adopted to sepa...

Central banks of major advanced economies have maintained a very accommodative monetary policy stance in the last few years. However, concerns have surfaced that the transmission of low policy rates to lending rates has been weaker than in the past. Has the transmission of policy rates to lending rates been impaired by the global financial crisis?...

Asymmetric information in securitization deals is analyzed based on a unique dataset comprising a million mortgages, both securitized and not, and using a methodology, previously applied to insurance data, that looks at the correlation between risk transfer and default probability. The main finding is that, for given observable characteristics, sec...

Payment system data are available with virtually no time lag and could therefore help in tracking the evolution of GDP in real time. Using data from the Spanish national system for retail payments, we compare the performance of GDP nowcasts against that of alternative indicators. The main result is that payment system data can make a significant co...

The global financial crisis has reaffirmed the importance of financial factors for macroeconomic fluctuations. Recent work has shown how the conventional pre-crisis prescription that monetary policy should pay no attention to financial variables over and above their effects on inflation may no longer be valid in models that consider frictions in fi...

We investigate the effect of relatively loose monetary policy on bank risk through a large panel including quarterly information from listed banks operating in the European Union and the United States. We find evidence suggesting that relatively low levels of interest rates over an extended period of time contributed to an increase in bank risk. Th...

Using information on 98 internationally active banks headquartered in 27 countries over the period 1994–2012, we analyse the nonlinear link betwee