Leonardo Bastos

Leonardo Bastos
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz | FIOCRUZ · PROCC

PhD in Statistics

About

115
Publications
24,578
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
1,800
Citations
Citations since 2016
96 Research Items
1617 Citations
20162017201820192020202120220100200300400
20162017201820192020202120220100200300400
20162017201820192020202120220100200300400
20162017201820192020202120220100200300400
Introduction
Leonardo Bastos is an associate researcher at the Scientific Computing Program (PROCC), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro,, Brazil. His research is in applied Bayesian modelling of infectious diseases. His main projects involve development analytical methods for epidemiological surveillance, and development of methods for inference in hard-to-reach populations.
Additional affiliations
June 2019 - present
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Position
  • PostDoc Position
December 2012 - present
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
Position
  • Researcher
March 2010 - December 2012
Universidade Federal Fluminense
Position
  • Lecturer
Education
September 2006 - May 2010
The University of Sheffield
Field of study
  • Statistics
April 2002 - December 2003
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Field of study
  • Statistics
March 1998 - June 2002
Federal University of Minas Gerais
Field of study
  • Statistics

Publications

Publications (115)
Article
Full-text available
Background Vaccines developed between 2020 and 2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to diminish the severity and prevent deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate t...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Nota Técnica No. 43 Como apoiar o Sistema Único de Saúde no enfrentamento de novas ondas de COVID-19 e de outras pandemias? Uma Avaliação dos Planos de Governo dos Candidatos a Presidente e a Governador de São Paulo no Segundo Turno
Article
Full-text available
Government inaction on COVID-19 vaccines contributes to the persistence of childism in Brazil
Article
Full-text available
Background Incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections in low-resource communities can inform vaccination strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Our objective was to estimate incidence over four epidemic waves in a slum in Rio de Janeiro, a proxy for economically deprived areas in the Global South. Methods Prospective cohort of child...
Article
Full-text available
Background Evidence of multimorbidity has come mainly from high-income regions, while disparities among racial groups have been less explored. This study examined racial differences in multimorbidity in the multiracial cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health ( Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ), ELSA-Brasil. Methods The study examin...
Article
Full-text available
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant of concern has spread rapidly across Brazil since late 2020, causing substantial infection and death waves. Here we used individual-level patient records after hospitalization with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between 20 January 2020 and 26...
Article
Epidemiological surveillance and notification of respiratory infections is important for management and control of epidemics and pandemics. Fact-based decisions, like social distancing policies and preparation of hospital beds are taken based on several factors, including case numbers, hence health authorities need quick access to reliable and well...
Article
Full-text available
Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne disease, is a growing threat in Brazil, where over 640,000 cases have been reported since 2017. However, there are often long delays between diagnoses of chikungunya cases and their entry in the national monitoring system, leaving policymakers without the up-to-date case count statistics they need. In contrast, weekly...
Article
Full-text available
Nuestro propósito fue investigar las diferencias de las desigualdades socioespaciales de la mortalidad por COVID-19 entre tres olas de propagación del virus en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (CABA), Argentina. Los datos de mortalidad por COVID-19 se obtuvieron de la base de datos de casos de COVID-19, informados por el gobierno de la CABA, desd...
Article
Full-text available
Background Malaria incidence in Brazil reversed its decreasing trend when cases from recent years, as recent as 2015, exhibited an increase in the Brazilian Amazon basin, the area with the highest transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum . In fact, an increase of more than 20% in the years 2016 and 2017 revealed possible vulnerabi...
Article
The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of different logistic regression estimators applied to RDS studies via simulation and the analysis of empirical data. Four simulated populations were created with different connectivity characteristics. Each simulated individual received two attributes, one of them associated to the infection proce...
Article
Full-text available
We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing HCV infection rates in haemodialysis patients in Brazil (Prospero CRD #42021275068). We included studies on patients under haemodialysis, comprising both convenience samples and exhaustive information from selected services. Patients underwent HCV serological testing with or wi...
Article
Purpose This study aims to improve our understanding of violence, focusing on the analysis of the relation between socioeconomic factors and homicide rates from 2005 to 2019 in Brazilian capitals. Design/methodology/approach Multilevel Poisson models were used to estimate the homicide risk in men and women. The response variable was the homicide r...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: The vaccines developed in 2020-2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to prevent severity and deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deat...
Preprint
Full-text available
Dengue is a major threat to public health in Brazil, the world's sixth biggest country by population, with over 1.5 million cases recorded in 2019 alone. Official data on dengue case counts is delivered incrementally and, for many reasons, often subject to delays of weeks. In contrast, data on dengue-related Google searches and Twitter messages is...
Article
Full-text available
INTRODUCCIÓN La varicela es una enfermedad inmunoprevenible con marcada estacionalidad. Pocos estudios incorporan variables climáticas para entender sus características epidemiológicas. El objetivo fue evaluar la relación entre la incidencia de varicela con variables climáticas en Tucumán (una provincia con clima templado subtropical) durante 2005-...
Chapter
Full-text available
Passados os primeiros meses da pandemia do novo coronavírus no Brasil, o Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz, em parceria com a Editora Fiocruz e com o apoio da Rede SciELO Livros, traz para o público leitor um conjunto de livros instantâneos sobre as análises nele realizadas desde que foi criado para subsidiar o seu combate. Nesta série Informação para...
Technical Report
One sentence summary COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient...
Preprint
Full-text available
The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma’s spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than hal...
Article
Full-text available
In a context of community transmission and shortage of vaccines, COVID-19 vaccination should focus on directly reducing the morbidity and mortality caused by the disease. It was thus essential to define priority groups for vaccination by the Brazilian National Immunization Program (PNI in Portuguese), based on the risk of hospitalization and death...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background. Mass vaccination campaigns started in Brazil on January/2021 with CoronaVac followed by ChAdOx1 nCov-19, and BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines. Target populations initially included vulnerable groups such as people older than 80 years, with comorbidities, of indigenous origin, and healthcare workers. Younger age groups were gradually included. Met...
Article
Full-text available
Resumo O objetivo do estudo foi avaliar o risco de infecção por HIV em homens que fazem sexo com homens (HSH) a partir do desenvolvimento de um índice que considere as redes de parceiros sexuais. As variáveis do índice foram faixa etária, raça/cor, escolaridade, tipo de relacionamento, uso de preservativo em relações receptivas e insertivas, autope...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Malaria incidence in Brazil reversed its decreasing trend when cases from recent years, as recent as 2015, exhibited an increase in the Brazilian Amazon basin, the area with highest transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. In fact, an increase of more than 20% in the years 2016 and 2017 revealed possible vulnerabiliti...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing HCV infection rates in haemodialysis patients in Brazil. Methods: A systematic review was carried out, followed by two independent meta-analyses. The 1 st included studies with data on HCV prevalence. The 2 nd included previous studies with a confirmatory PCR (i.e....
Article
Full-text available
Objectives: To investigate the dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in a vulnerable population of children and their household contacts. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) immunoglobulin G serology tests were performed in...
Article
Full-text available
Background Temperature and rainfall patterns are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission. However, the effect of severe drought and extremely wet conditions on the timing and intensity of dengue epidemics is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of extreme hydrometeorological h...
Article
Full-text available
COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurren...
Article
Full-text available
Background With enough advanced notice, dengue outbreaks can be mitigated. As a climate-sensitive disease, environmental conditions and past patterns of dengue can be used to make predictions about future outbreak risk. These predictions improve public health planning and decision-making to ultimately reduce the burden of disease. Past approaches t...
Preprint
Full-text available
Objective: To investigate the impact of different logistic regression estimators applied to RDS samples obtained by simulation and real data. Methods: Four simulated populations were created combining different connectivity models, levels of clusterization and infection processes. Each subject in the population received two attributes, only one of...
Chapter
Passados os primeiros meses da pandemia do novo coronavírus no Brasil, o Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz, em parceria com a Editora Fiocruz e com o apoio da Rede SciELO Livros, traz para o público leitor um conjunto de livros instantâneos sobre as análises nele realizadas desde que foi criado para subsidiar o seu combate. Nesta série Informação para...
Chapter
Passados os primeiros meses da pandemia do novo coronavírus no Brasil, o Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz, em parceria com a Editora Fiocruz e com o apoio da Rede SciELO Livros, traz para o público leitor um conjunto de livros instantâneos sobre as análises nele realizadas desde que foi criado para subsidiar o seu combate. Nesta série Informação para...
Article
Full-text available
Background To achieve malaria elimination, it is important to determine the role of human mobility in parasite transmission maintenance. The Alto Juruá basin (Brazil) exhibits one of the largest vivax and falciparum malaria prevalence in the Amazon. The goal of this study was to estimate the contribution of human commutes to malaria persistence in...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives: This study aimed to analyze the factors associated with likely TB deaths, likely TB-related deaths and deaths from other causes. Understanding the factors associated with mortality could help the strategy to End TB, especially the goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% between 2015 and 2035. Methods: A retrospective, population-based coho...
Article
Full-text available
This study analyzes the spatial dynamics of drug users' recruitment chains in the context of a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) study in the city of Recife, Brazil. The purpose is to understand the geographic bottlenecks, influenced by social geography, which have been a major challenge for RDS-based studies. Temporo-spatial analysis was used. Sequ...
Article
Full-text available
Brazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identified which areas in the country were the most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of cases, the risk of sustained transmission and their social vulnerability. Probabilistic models were used to calculate the probability of COVID-19...
Article
Full-text available
INTRODUCCIÓN La varicela es una de las enfermedades inmunoprevenibles más comunes. En 1998 la Organización Mundial de la Salud recomendó incorporar la vacuna a los programas nacionales de vacunación. Argentina lo hizo en 2015. El objetivo de este trabajo fue analizar la serie temporal de varicela durante 2005-2019 y evaluar el impacto de la vacuna...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Release of virus-blocking Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is an emerging disease control strategy that aims to control dengue and other arboviral infections. Early entomological data and modelling analyses have suggested promising outcomes, and wMel Wolbachia releases are now ongoing or planned in 12 countries. To help inform government,...
Article
Network theory methods and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are accepted tools to study allosteric regulation. Indeed, dynamic networks built upon correlation analysis of MD trajectories provide detailed information about communication paths between distant sites. In this context, we aimed to understand whether the efficiency of intramolecular c...
Preprint
Background: To achieve the goal of malaria elimination, it is important to determine the role of human mobility of maintain parasite transmission. The Alto Jurua basin (Brazil) has one of the largest prevalence of malaria vivax and malaria falciparum in the Amazon. The goal of this work was to estimate the contribution of human commutation on the p...
Preprint
Full-text available
Roughly six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have managed to contain the spread of the virus by means of strict containment measures including quarantine, tracing and isolation of patients as well strong restrictions on population mobility. Here we propose an extended SEIR model to explore the dynamics of containment and then explo...
Article
Full-text available
A new class of models, named dynamic quantile linear models, is presented. It combines the dynamic linear models with the distribution free quantile regression producing a robust statistical method. Bayesian inference for the dynamic quantile linear models can be done using an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. A fast sequential procedur...
Preprint
Full-text available
Timely information is key for decision-making. The ability to predict dengue transmission ahead of time would significantly benefit planners and decision-makers. Dengue is climate-sensitive. Monitoring climate variability could provide advance warning about dengue risk. Multiple dengue early warning systems have been proposed. Often, these systems...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Brazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identify which areas in the country are most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of COVID-19 cases and the risk of sustained transmission. The micro-regions with higher social vulnerability are also identified. Methods Probab...
Article
Full-text available
Despite all the research done on the first Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemics, it was only after the Brazilian epidemic that the Congenital Zika Syndrome was described. This was made possible due to the large number of babies born with microcephaly in the Northeast region (NE) in a narrow time. We hypothesize that the fivefold difference in the rate of mi...
Article
Background: We evaluated the prevalence of sexualized drug use (Chemsex) and its association with moderate/high risk for substance use disorders and HIV sexual risk behavior among men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional web-based survey among MSM from Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). The Alcohol, Smoking and Substance In...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Release of virus-blocking Wolbachia infected mosquitoes is an emerging disease control strategy that aims to control dengue and other arboviral infections. Early entomological data and modelling analyses have suggested promising outcomes and wMel Wolbachia releases are now ongoing or planned in 12 countries. To help inform potential scal...
Article
Full-text available
Resumo: Estimativas de mulheres que fizeram aborto provocado em localidades cujas leis são restritivas ainda são escassas na literatura científica, e a não coincidência de estimativas oriundas dos métodos hoje em uso clama pela aplicação de métodos inovadores, como novos métodos indiretos. Tal necessidade é especialmente aguda nas áreas mais densam...
Article
Full-text available
Resumo: A vigilância de síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SRAG) no Brasil visa a caracterizar a circulação dos vírus Influenza A e B em casos hospitalizados e óbitos, tendo sido ampliada em 2012 para incluir outros vírus respiratórios. A COVID-19 foi detectada no Brasil pela primeira vez na 9ª semana epidemiológica de 2020 e o teste para o vírus S...
Article
Full-text available
O presente estudo tem o objetivo de descrever os pacientes hospitalizados por síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SRAG) em decorrência da COVID-19 (SRAG-COVID), no Brasil, quanto às suas características demográficas e comorbidades até a 21ª Semana Epidemiológica de 2020. Buscou-se comparar essas características com as dos hospitalizados por SRAG em...
Article
Full-text available
Trypanosomatids are protozoan parasites that infect thousands of globally dispersed hosts, potentially affecting their physiology. Several species of trypanosomatids are commonly found in phytophagous insects. Leptomonas wallacei is a gut-restricted insect trypanosomatid only retrieved from Oncopeltus fasciatus. The insects get infected by copropha...
Article
Introduction: Varicella, also known as chickenpox is one of the most common immunizable diseases. In 1998, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended to incorporate this vaccine in the national immunization programs, which Argentina did in 2015. Objectives: To describe the behavior of the varicella time series for the 2005-2017 period, and...
Preprint
Background: This study aimed to analyze the factors associated with deaths caused by TB, TB-related causes and deaths from other causes. Methods: A retrospective, population-based cohort study of the causes of death, using a survival regression model in the presence of competitive risk in a cohort of patients in treatment for TB was performed using...
Preprint
Background: This study aimed to analyze the factors associated with deaths caused by TB, TB-related causes and deaths from other causes. Methods: A retrospective, population-based cohort study of the causes of death, using a survival regression model in the presence of competitive risk in a cohort of patients in treatment for TB was performed using...
Article
Full-text available
One difficulty for real‐time tracking of epidemics is related to reporting delay. The reporting delay may be due to laboratory confirmation, logistical problems, infrastructure difficulties, and so on. The ability to correct the available information as quickly as possible is crucial, in terms of decision making such as issuing warnings to the publ...
Article
The Trypanosoma cruzi ribose-5-phosphate isomerase B (TcRpiB) is a crucial piece in the pentose phosphate pathway and thus is a potential drug target for treatment of Chagas' disease. TcRpiB residues, such as Cys69, Asp45, Glu149 and Pro47, have confirmed their roles in substrate recognition, catalytic reaction and binding site conformation. Howeve...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction: Nyssomyia intermedia is an important vector of American cutaneous leishmaniasis. Methods: Sand flies were captured in a Shannon trap and after landing on human collectors and retrieved monthly. Nocturnal activity was estimated using a log-linear model. Results: Peak sand fly collection in the Shannon trap occurred in summer and w...
Article
Full-text available
Despite the initiative by WHO and other international organizations to eliminate HCV in the medium term, hepatitis C infection is still a major public health problem. Even non-injecting drugs users who engage in harmful or addictive drug use are at greater risk of acquiring the infection, when compared to the general population. This study evaluate...