Leonard Lodish

University of Pennsylvania | UP · The Wharton School

Current practice of TV advertising campaign generation usually starts with a small number of concepts and ends up with a final copy on TV, a funneling process that narrows down quickly without reliably testing the ad concepts’ effectiveness in market. Is this practice optimal? Should more ad copies be generated for testing? We propose a model and e...

Geographic variation in consumer use of Internet retailers is partly explained by variation in offline shopping costs. Explanations for geographic variation in the efficacy of different customer acquisition methods including traditional methods of offline word-of-mouth (WOM) and magazine advertising and information systems (IS)-enabled methods of o...

Drawing on literature on judgment and decision-making, we examine the proposition that price serves two distinct roles in consumers ’ value judgments. First, as a product attribute, price affects the perceived similarity of the target product to the mental prototype of a higher or lower quality product. However, price is not the only attribute used...

In a very intriguing and groundbreaking study, Goldfarb and Tucker [Goldfarb, A., C. Tucker. 2011. Online display advertising: Targeting and obtrusiveness. Marketing Sci. 30(3) 389-404] show that online advertising targeting and obtrusiveness boost purchase intent independently, but not jointly. The authors rule out recall as an explanatory mechani...

Inspired by Erin Anderson’s contributions to sales force research, this paper focuses on research that utilizes quantitative models to investigate important questions in sales force management. The purpose is to summarize several significant developments in knowledge over the last 40years and identify major opportunities for impactful theoretical,...

An analysis is performed on the results of 50 recent real-world TV advertising tests conducted by Information Resources, Inc. to update the findings of Lodish et al. [Journal of Marketing Research 32, 2 (1995): 125-39] and Hu, Lodish, and Krieger (Hu et al.) [Journal of Advertising Research 47, 3 (2007): 341-53]. Overall, the improvement of TV adve...

An analysis is performed on the results of 241 real world TV advertising tests conducted by Information Resources, Inc. between 1989 and 2003 to partially update the findings of Lodish et al. [Journal of Marketing Research 32, 2 (1995): 125-39]. Two types of market test results, BehaviorScan and Matched-Market, are analyzed. Overall, the improvemen...

Brands are on the wane. Many consumer-goods companies blame the big-box discount retailers, but the Wharton School's Leonard Lodish and the Fuqua School's Carl Mela have a different explanation. Their research suggests that companies have damaged their brands by investing too much in short-term price promotions and too little in long-term brand bui...

Bronnenberg, Dhar, and Dube (2007) show that there is a large geographic variation in market shares and perceived quality levels of a large sample of "national" and "regional" brands across many consumer packaged good categories, and they demonstrate that their geographic findings are new to academics. In this comment, the author shows that practic...

No abstract available

Conjoint analysis is a class of techniques for analyzing consumers’ preferences and trade-offs regarding their selection of products and services. Typically, conjoint analysis has been applied to established markets such as frequently purchased packaged goods, consumer durables, communication services, and business-to-business products. Recently, m...

disclaimer applies. 1 A revised version of this essay will appear in the new (“Millenium”) edition of Historical Statistics of the United States, a standard reference work prepared in previous editions by the staff of the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census but now to be edited by a consortium of American economic historians and publis...

There is a more important problem than developing new marketing metrics. Most packaged-goods manufacturers and other marketers are not getting anywhere near full value from the metrics currently available. In this article, I summarize some data on the underutilization of metrics, hypothesize some reasons for this, and describe some steps to be take...

Through two exploratory studies, we develop and test an introductory framework of "organizational disidentification." Our first study explores the concept of organizational disidentification through a qualitative investigation of cognitive relationships ...

Building models that help marketers make productive decisions and that they actually use is hard. I learned some lessons in my 30+ years of building and applying models for sizing and deploying sales forces, for estimating brand health, and for estimating the impact on revenue of marketing mix and of the attractiveness to consumers of product attri...

Building models that help marketers make productive decisions and that they actually use is hard. I learned some lessons in my 30+ years of building and applying models for sizing and deploying sales forces, for estimating brand health, and for estimating the impact on revenue of marketing mix and of the attractiveness to consumers of product attri...

Grocery retailers increasingly view other retail formats, particularly mass merchandisers, as a competitive threat. We present an empirical study of household shopping and packaged goods spending across retail formats — grocery stores, mass merchandisers, and drug stores. Our study considers competition between these formats and explores how retail...

this report is organized as follows. First, we briefly review previous research that supports our contention that the most appropriate category management roles for the store brand program are first as profit contributor and second as value creator. Next, we outline the primary purpose of the paper, which is to investigate the optimal price gap bet...

In their recent Journal of Advertising Research article, John Philip Jones and Margaret Henderson Blair (1996) summarize their own and other empirical studies on the sales effects of TV advertising. In this article we document other points of view on parts of their analysis. Specifically: 1. We show that the John Philip Jones's STAS (Short Term Adv...

A criticism of purchase-based brand loyalty measures is that they are confounded by the marketing mix variables that affect brand choice. This paper investigates the magnitude and direction of the associations for share of category requirements (SCR), defined as each brand's share among the group of households who bought the brand at least once dur...

Contemporary choice models focus on choice opportunities in which consumers purchase a quantity of a single item in a product category, However, failing to recognize the possibility of assortments of multiple-item purchases can lead to incorrect conclusions about the impact of past purchase behavior on current choices. The authors propose a model t...

Contemporary choice models focus on choice opportunities in which consumers purchase a quantity of a single item in a product category. However, failing to recognize the possibility of assortments of multiple-Item purchases can lead to incorrect conclusions about the impact of past purchase behavior on current choices. The authors propose a model t...

This article reports on the first in-market experimentally based measurement of long-term TV advertising effects for a representative cross-section of 55 tests for established consumer packaged goods. The typical BehaviorScan^® weight test has a test group exposed to a heavier TV advertising weight than a matched control group for a one-y...

The authors analyze results of 389 BehaviorScan® matched household, consumer panel, split cable, real world T.V. advertising weight, and copy tests. Additionally, study sponsors-packaged goods advertisers, T.V. networks, and advertising agencies-filled out questionnaires on 140 of the tests, which could test common beliefs about how T.V. advertisin...

The authors analyze results of 389 BehaviorScan® matched household, consumer panel, split cable, real world T.V. advertising weight, and copy tests. Additionally, study sponsors—packaged goods advertisers, T.V. networks, and advertising agencies—filled out questionnaires on 140 of the tests, which could test common beliefs about how T.V. advertisin...

This paper presents a research agenda for making scanner data more useful to managers. Recommendations are generated in three areas. First, we draw on three case examples to distill a list of characteristics of research that encourage managerial impact. Second, we generate a master list of managerial research issues, and then, compile a list of nin...

“Single Source” databases based on scanner data offer new opportunities for evaluating promotions and improving their effectiveness. Decision support needs vary depending on the decision maker's organizational vantage point. Some managers require the evaluation of promotion results in the short term. Others should take a medium- to long-term focus....

Actual supermarket purchases made by consumers over a seven-month period are compared with the choice decisions collected in one sitting in a laboratory simulation. The laboratory simulation was designed to mimic the original market environment. Although there were systematic biases in predictions, of true purchase behavior from the simulated data,...

Scanner technology has resulted in the problem of “too much” data. Marketing managers in packaged goods companies are inundated with 100 to 1,000 times more bits of data than what they had access to even a few years back. In this paper, we report our approach and experiences in developing a prototype expert system, called infer, that helps translat...

The authors analyze cross-category differences derived from a data source new to the marketing literature. For each of 331 separate grocery product categories, the authors examine two sets of variables, one set consisting of structural characteristics of each category, such as average purchase cycle and household penetration, and the other containi...

The authors analyze cross-category differences derived from a data source new to the marketing literature. For each of 331 separate grocery product categories, the authors examine two sets of variables, one set consisting of structural characteristics of each category, such as average purchase cycle and household penetration, and the other containi...

Until recently, believing in the effectiveness of advertising and promotion was largely a matter of faith. Despite all the data collected by marketing departments, none measured what was really important: the incremental sales of a product over and above those that would happen without the advertising and promotion. Thanks to a qualitatively new ki...

The authors describe a methodology and a personal-computer-based decision model for selecting optimal market testing strategies. A Bayesian decision theoretic framework is used that (1) considers continuously distributed payoffs, (2) allows for updating of information on market response to strategies that are not being tested directly (relaxing the...

The authors describe a methodology and a personal-computer-based decision model for selecting optimal market testing strategies. A Bayesian decision theoretic framework is used that (1) considers continuously distributed payoffs, (2) allows for updating of information on market response to strategies that are not being tested directly (relaxing the...

A series of subjectively parameterized models was developed and implemented, beginning in 1982, to aid Syntex Laboratories in deciding how large their sales force should be, and how it should be deployed. The response functions of the models were estimated by a team of knowledgeable managers and salespeople using a modified Delphi technique. The mo...

A system and methodology for evaluating manufacturers' trade promotions which may be combined with consumer promotions is described. The methodology incorporates concepts from expert systems in order to evaluate promotions on a mass scale (i.e., by geographical area and size or flavor) with a minimum of analyst intervention. The system uses availab...

This exploratory study assesses the impact of variables associated with a financial portfolio model (marginal returns, growth, synergy, and uncertainty) and characteristics of the channel relationship (power, organizational climate, and communications) on the selling time allocated by 71 independent sales agencies to the principals they represent....

This exploratory study assesses the impact of variables associated with a financial portfolio model (marginal returns, growth, synergy, and uncertainty) and characteristics of the channel relationship (power, organizational climate, and communications) on the selling time allocated by 71 independent sales agencies to the principals they represent....

A decision support system for planning marketing strategies and allocating resources for a multi-store retailer is described. This decision support system combines well-known model building and analysis methodology, sophisticated computer software, and attention to management's implementation needs in order to apply management science thinking to m...

Chakravarti, Mitchell, and Staelin (CMS) draw a number of conclusions about judgment based models that agree with our field experience. However, we question whether their experiments form an adequate basis for ascribing negative effects to decision calculus models. A key part of the laboratory task is to estimate five model parameters, given betwee...

Chakravarti, Mitchell, and Staelin (CMS) draw a number of conclusions about judgment based models that agree with our field experience. However, we question whether their experiments form an adequate basis for ascribing negative effects to decision calculus models. A key part of the laboratory task is to estimate five model parameters, given betwee...

The authors describe a model and measurement methodology by which to predict the probability that an individual consumer will choose a product from an offered set of competing products. After a brief review of alternative approaches, they use a simple example to illustrate the proposed methodology. They demonstrate the empirical validity of the met...

The authors describe a model and measurement methodology by which to predict the probability that an individual consumer will choose a product from an offered set of competing products. After a brief review of alternative approaches, they use a simple example to illustrate the proposed methodology. They demonstrate the empirical validity of the met...

A simple-to-understand and easy-to-implement model is developed to handle decisions on sales force size, product, and market allocations. One firm's experience in using the model for tactical allocation decisions and strategic sales force restructuring is described.

Easily implemented dynamic models for pricing and production or ordering decisions are developed for products or services whose value to the consumer may be changing over time. The models are easily solved by brute force dynamic programming. Implementation examples of models for broadcast pricing are presented.

Easily implemented dynamic models for pricing and production or ordering decisions are developed for products or services whose value to the consumer may be changing over time. The models are easily solved by brute force dynamic programming. Implementation examples of models for broadcast pricing are presented.

A simple-to-understand and easy-to-implement model is developed to handle decisions on sales force size, product, and market allocations. One firm's experience in using the model for tactical allocation decisions and strategic sales force restructuring is described.

The authors investigate methods of evaluating marketing experiments in which the experimental territories have been determined a priori. Various matching and prediction schemes are offered to predict what sales in an experimental unit would have been if no experiment had been run. These schemes are developed for predictions of both single territory...

The authors investigate methods of evaluating marketing experiments in which the experimental territories have been determined a priori. Various matching and prediction schemes are offered to predict what sales in an experimental unit would have been if no experiment had been run. These schemes are developed for predictions of both single territory...

During 1975 twenty United Airlines' salesmen in New York and San Francisco participated in an experiment to evaluate the sales effects of supporting call frequency decisions with an interactive management science model. The CALLPLAN model [Lodish, L. M. 1971. CALLPLAN: An interactive salesman's call planning system. Management Sci.18 4, December, P...

A mathematical programming model and linear programming solution procedure are developed to assign salesmen to accounts and simultaneously to determine appropriate time allocations to the accounts. The model is useful for sales situations in which geographic locations of accounts are close and the interaction of the salesman with the account is rel...

A mathematical programming model and linear programming solution procedure are developed to assign salesmen to accounts and simultaneously to determine appropriate time allocations to the accounts. The model is useful for sales situations in which geographic locations of accounts are close and the interaction of the salesman with the account is rel...

A recent article in Management Science by Zufryden [Zufryden, F. S. 1973. Media scheduling: A stochastic dynamic model approach. Management Sci. 19 (12, August) 1395-1406.] describes a media selection and scheduling model which neglects to consider diminishing returns to repeated exposures at the individual level. This note illustrates the problem...

A mathematical programming model and heuristic solution procedure are developed to realign sales territories. Unique model aspects are: (1) the objective function is the anticipated profit generated by the sales force; (2) the interrelated problem of account specific call frequency determination is simultaneously considered; (3) travel time is cons...

A mathematical programming model and heuristic solution procedure are developed to realign sales territories. Unique model aspects are: (1) the objective function is the anticipated profit generated by the sales force; (2) the interrelated problem of account specific call frequency determination is simultaneously considered; (3) travel time is cons...

CALLPLAN is an interactive computer system designed to aid salesmen or sales management in allocating sales call time more efficiently. The system increases their capacity to consider the allocation in a logical and consistent manner. CALLPLAN uses as input the salesman's own best estimates of expected contribution of all possible call policies for...

The market response model of the MEDIAC media planning system is used as a base for discussion of empirical studies relating to the advertising phenomena of response to repeated exposure and forgetting. The model provides hypotheses to examine and a common base for analysis.

The market response model of the MEDIAC media planning system is used as a base for discussion of empirical studies relating to the advertising phenomena of response to repeated exposure and forgetting. The model provides hypotheses to examine and a common base for analysis.

A normative mathematical procedure for the media planning problem is proposed which explicitly considers the effect of competitors’ media schedules. A predictive model is developed to evaluate expected market response due to an advertising media schedule considering the anticipated schedules of competitors as well as other major advertising phenome...

The comments by Kruger (Kruger, M. W. 1987. Commentary—Steps toward mastering trade promotions. 147–149.) and Struse (Struse, III, R. W. 1987. Commentary—Approaches to promotion evaluation: A practitioner's viewpoint. 150–151.) describe some important concepts and issues involved in improving trade promotion effectiveness. In this response we comme...

A convenient on-line computer system selects and schedules advertising media. The system consists of a market-response model, a heuristic search routine, and a conversational input-output program. The user supplies a list of media options, a budget, and various objective and subjective data about the media options and the desired audience. The syst...

The problem of media planning in advertising is a natural one for the application of mathematical models and computers. A great deal of data are available on who reads (or sees or hears) what. There are considerable data on what kinds of people are prospects for which types of product. There are many different media options available. Many judgment...