Lee G. Cooper

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• PhD University of Illinois, Psychometrics, 1970
• Professor Emeritus at University of California, Los Angeles

Prologue “Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” ― Søren Kierkegaard Motivation The University of California, Los Angeles turns 100 in 2019. I turn 75 and mark 50 years on the UCLA faculty. That’s an excuse to write anything I want. What I feel compelled to write about is how I would propose that we manage ourselves...

This epilogue relates how the story ends: the sale to a major media company, the earn-out provisions and benchmarks, how the contract was violated, and how the ultimate buy-out was negotiated.

Despite a few very heralded failures in 2000, online retail is a vital and growing sector. While the rest of the economy was sinking further into recession, on-line sales grew 21% to $51.3 billion in 2001, jumped 48% to $51.3 billion in 2001, jumped 48% to 76 billion in 2002, and are expected to increase to $96 in 2003. Approximately 70% of on-line...

This article considers the supermarket manager's problem of forecasting-demand for a product as a function of the product's attributes and of market-control variables. To forecast sales on the stock keeping unit (SKU) level, a good model should account for product attributes, historical sales levels, and store specifics, and to control for marketin...

The present paper concentrates on the nature and structure of inter-store price competition. It focusses especially on price competition between different retailers within one trading area and within one product category. Six theoretically founded hypotheses postulate competitive relations between manufacturers’ UPCs and the retailers covering vari...

We present a model of competitive positioning and pricing of new products in a multisegmented market that is useful not only for new entrants, but also for brand managers of incumbents to assess the potential threats inherent in existing market structures. We do this for a multisegmented market in which the ideal point for each segment is located i...

: Using empirical market data from brand rivalry in a retail ground-coffee market, we model each brand's pricing behaviour using the Markov restriction, that marketing strategies depend only on profit-relevant state variables, and use the Genetic Algorithm to search for co-evolved Markov perfect equilibria, where each profit-maximizing brand manage...

Machine learning induction algorithms are difficult to scale to very large databases because of their memory-bound nature. Using virtual memory results to a significant performance degradation. To overcome such shortcomings, we developed a classification rule induction algorithm for relational databases. Our algorithm uses a bottom-up rule generati...

: Using empirical market data from brand rivalry in a retail ground-coffee market, we model each brand's pricing behaviour using the Markov restriction, that marketing strategies depend only on profit-relevant state variables, and use a technique from machine learning to search for coevolved Markov perfect equilibria, where each profit-maximizing b...

This article develops and illustrates a new knowledge discovery algorithm tailored to the action requirements of management science applications. The challenge is to develop tactical planning forecasts at the SKU level. We use a traditional market-response model to extract information from continuous variables and use datamining techniques on the r...

In this article, the author outlines an approach to marketing planning for radically new products, disruptive or discontinuous innovations that change the dimensionality of the consumer decision. The planning process begins with an extensive situation analysis. The factors identified in the situation analysis are woven into the economic webs surrou...

This article describes the implementation of a promotion-event forecasting system, PromoCast™, and its performance in several pilot applications and validity studies. Pilot studies involved retail grocery chains with 95 to 185 stores per trading area. The goal was to provide short-term, tactical forecasts useful for planning promotions from a retai...

Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been used extensively in engineering and computer science to optimize specific functions, especially those which exhibit non-convexities and so are not amenable to calculus-based methods of optimization. A parallel use of GAs has been to solve algorithmic problems. A third domain in which GAs have been used is that of...

Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been used for mappings which optimize a repeated procedure. An offshoot of this has been their use in what has been called co-evolution of mappings. This paper reports results from a project in which GAs have been used to: 1) to derive mappings which may explain the behavior of brand managers in an oligopolistic retail...

In 1998 we looked into the future of digital convergence: computing, communications, and content. This is what we saw.

Machine learning induction algorithms are difficult to scale to very large databases because of their memory-bound nature. Using virtual memory results in a significant performance degradation. To overcome such shortcomings, we developed a classification rule induction algorithm for relational databases. Our algorithm uses a bottom-up rule generati...

ABSTRACT We extend our earlier work using artificial agents to model multi-period games between competing brands in an oligopoly. We do so by developing a multiple-population genetic algorithm in order to allow customized agents for each brand. We also consider more competitors and more possible pricing actions per competitor than before, and we ev...

Using empirical market data from brand rivalry in a retail ground-coffee market, we model each idiosyncratic brand'spricing behaviour using the restriction that marketing strategies depend only on profit-relevant state variables, and use the Genetic Algorithm to search for co-evolved equilibria, where each profit-maximizing brand manager is a stimu...

We show how genetic algorithms can be used to evolve strategies in oligopolistic markets characterized by asymmetric competition. The approach is illustrated using scanner tracking data of brand actions in a real market. An asymmetric market-share model and a category-volume model are combined to represent market response to the actions of brand ma...

The authors present a model that maps competitive market structures by identifying the preference structure of each consumer segment. By marrying two different data types - switching probabilities and attribute ratings - their model divides a market into several homogeneous submarkets in which consumers consider a distinctive subset of brands (cons...

The authors present a model that maps competitive market structures by identifying the preference structure of each consumer segment. By marrying two different data types—switching probabilities and attribute ratings—their model divides a market into several homogeneous sub-markets in which consumers consider a distinctive subset of brands (conside...

Managers are unlikely to keep current with advanced developments in market-response analysis, and technical analysts often lack the market-place knowledge of the many product categories they must track through syndicated data; this is a recipe for bad decisions. The authors present methods based on three-mode factor analysis and multivariate regres...

Managers are unlikely to keep current with advanced developments in market-response analysis, and technical analysts often lack the marketplace knowledge of the many product categories they must track through syndicated data; this is a recipe for bad decisions. The authors present methods based on three-mode factor analysis and multivariate regress...

We show how genetic algorithms can be used to evolve strategies in oligopolistic markets characterized by asymmetric competition. The approach is illustrated using scanner tracking data of brand actions in a real market. An asymmetric market-share model and a category-volume model are combined to represent market response to the actions of brand ma...

Advances in game theory have provided an impetus for renewed investigation of the strategic behaviour of oligopolists as players in repeated games. Marketing databases provide a rich source of historical evidence of such behaviour. This paper uses such data to examine how players in iterated oligopolies respond to their rivals’ behaviour, and uses...

This chapter describes that three basic principles motivate the specification of the market-share models. Market-share models should be competitive, descriptive as well as predictive, and profit-oriented. Being fundamentally competitive implies that one cannot know the effect or effectiveness of a marketing action without accounting for the actions...

Among the more prominent truisms in marketing are 80/20 type laws, e.g., 20 percent of the customers account for 80 percent of the purchases. These kinds of statistics indicate a certain degree of concentration in customer purchases; i.e., the extent to which a large portion of the product's total purchases are made by a small fraction of all custo...

This study examines consumers' response to retailers' price promotions. It shows that consumers discount the price discounts. It also suggests that the discounting of discounts and changes in purchase intention depend on the discount level, store image, and whether the product advertised is a name brand or a store brand. The study goes one step fur...

We develop two methods for imputing missing values in regression situations. We examine the standard fixed-effects linear-regression model Y = X β + ϵ, where the regressors X are fixed and ϵ is the error term. This research focuses on the problem of missing X values. A particular component of market-share analysis has motivated this research where...

The current state of market-share analysis is summarized according to the five-stage model described in Cooper and Nakanishi (1988). Consideration of what is needed to help managers learn about markets and competition leads to a discussion of CHAINs (Combined Human- and Artificial-Intelligence Networks)—open systems in which growth of the knowledge...

The effects of the marketing actions of one brand can be distributed among its competitors' market shares in a complex manner. This paper presents and illustrates methods for modeling brand competition and brand strategies in markets where competitive effects can be differentially and asymmetrically distributed. We discuss the empirical specificati...

A special case of three-mode factor analysis is used to portray the systematic structure underlying asymmetric cross elasticities for a broad class of market-share attraction models. Analysis of the variation over retail outlets and weeks reveals competitive patterns corresponding to sales for the major brands in the market as well as patterns refl...

This article describes the information-systems theory and the pedagogy behind the development of C.A.S.P.E.R.--Competitive Analysis System for Product Performance and Promotional Effectiveness Research. Managers must be able to learn from historical data (and graphical summaries can be very effective in this role), simulate the market response to p...

This article describes the information-systems theory and the pedagogy behind the development of C.A.S.P.E.R.--Competitive Analysis System for Product Performance and Promotional Effectiveness Research. Managers must be able to learn from historical data (and graphical summaries can be very effective in this role), simulate the market response to p...

The domain of this review includes the develop ment and application of multidimensional scaling (MDS) in product planning; in decisions concerning pricing and branding; in the study of channels of dis tribution, personal selling, and the effects of advertis ing ; and in research related to the fact finding and analysis mission of marketing research...

A logit vector model and a logit ideal point model are presented for external analysis of paired comparison preference judgments aggregated over a homogeneous group. The logit vector model is hierarchically nested within the logit ideal point model so that statistical tests are available to distinguish between these two models. Generalized least sq...

To use multiplicative competitive interaction (MCI) models as part of a theory of the evaluative process in choice, we need a method to transform interval scale consumer judgments into positive, ratio scales. We develop a coefficient—zeta-squared—that possesses the needed scale requirements and other theoretically desirable properties, and report f...

Structural transformations of the MCI model are presented which make the model easily estimated using dummy variables with widely available regression packages. The MCI model is empirically shown to provide better predictive power than several other models of similar form, but ones which do not produce logically consistent market share estimates.

Disagreement in opinions is frequent among individuals in a group, as well as among parties at other levels of living systems. It often becomes evident during decision making processes, but at other times as well. Such disagreement is predominately viewed as a single homogeneous construct. It is used as such in a wide variety of research and action...

Least squares estimation techniques are developed for a special multiplicative model based on the Luce choice axiom whose potential usefulness in marketing applications justifies estimation techniques which can be easily implemented.

Least squares estimation techniques are developed for a special multiplicative model based on the Luce choice axiom whose potential usefulness in marketing applications justifies estimation techniques which can be easily implemented.

Group for Action Planning report: Human Systems Development Study Center, Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles

Until very recently, the major focus of research in the field of consumer behavior has been on the selection of products, brands and decision choices primarily in the sphere of marketing. The purpose of this paper was to modify a model developed to measure market share to account for the variables that enter into the selection of a political candid...

The concept of preference is of primary importance in psychology. It has had an implicit role in almost every psychological theory, but no major efforts have been directed toward the explication of preference as a psychological concept. Why is one object preferred to another? is a question which has remained unan- swered, at least to the extent tha...

A theorem is presented relating the squared multiple correlation of each measure in a battery with the other measures to the unique generalized inverse of the correlation matrix. This theorem is independent of the rank of the correlation matrix and may be utilized for singular correlation matrices. A coefficient is presented which indicates whether...

A new solution to the additive constant problem in metric multidimensional scaling is developed. This solution determines, for a given dimensionality, the additive constant and the resulting stimulus projections on the dimensions of a Euclidean space which minimize the sum of squares of discrepancies between the formal model for metric multidimensi...

This paper reports results from a project in which Genetic Algorithms (GAs) have been used, first, to derive mappings which may explain the behavior of brand managers in an oligopolistic retail market for coffee; second, to attempt to improve on the historical profits of these brand managers, pitted in weekly competition with each other, vying for...

Microfilm. Thesis--University of Illinois. Vita. Bibliography: leaves 93-95.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Illinois. Includes bibliographical references. Photocopy.