
Leandro Prados de la EscosuraUniversity Carlos III de Madrid | UC3M · Department of Social Sciences
Leandro Prados de la Escosura
D.Phil.
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July 1990 - August 2021
Publications
Publications (198)
This Introduction provides an overview of the evolution of Spain over almost a millennium, distinguishing two major epochs, with 1850 as the turning point. The first, which corresponds to the pre-industrial era, evinces long fluctuations in average income and its distribution and no long-term net gains, while the second reveals a sustained increase...
This chapter assesses long-term productivity growth and its immediate determinants in Spain. Over the last 170 years, output per hour worked dominated GDP growth, while hours worked per person shrank by one-quarter and population trebled. Half of labour productivity growth resulted from capital deepening and one-third from efficiency gains (total f...
Spain’s financial position during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century has usually been depicted as one of persistent deficit on current account, resulting from the country’s integration into international commodity and factor markets, which would have slowed down economic growth. In this chapter, this proposition is tested on the basis...
This chapter assesses how the rewards of sustained economic growth were distributed over time. The evolution of income inequality resembles a wide inverted U with a peak in 1916, and a Kuznets curve results when the Gini coefficient is plotted against real per capita income. The functional distribution of income led personal income distribution unt...
On the basis of new yearly estimates of output and population, Spain’s economic performance from the late thirteenth century to mid-nineteenth century can be shown to be a succession of growing and shrinking phases without long-term net gains in average income. The simultaneous behaviour of per capita income and population is consistent with the ex...
The loss of the Americas empire has been deemed one of the main causes of Spain’s economic backwardness in the nineteenth century. This chapter assesses its economic effects. The emancipation of the mainland American colonies impacted negatively on Spain’s economy, especially in the short run, with a contraction of international trade, domestic inv...
This chapter provides and analyses new estimates of net capital stock and services for Spain over the last 170 years. The net capital (wealth) stock-GDP ratio rose over time and doubled in the last half a century. Capital services grew fast over the long run, accelerating in the 1920s and from the mid-1950s to 2007. Until 1975, their acceleration w...
In this chapter, the Prebisch thesis of a long-run deterioration of primary producers’ terms of trade vis-a-vis industrial nations and its consequences on the former’s welfare is tested for Spain and Britain in the age of the Industrial Revolution. At odds with the Prebisch doctrine, the evolution of the terms of trade between Spain and Britain had...
The economic decline of Early Modern Spain offers an opportunity to explore how it affected perceptions of welfare and inequality. We provide an answer based on the Bull of the Crusade, an inexpensive alms collected by the Hispanic Monarchy and massively purchased by a highly religious population that believed in its spiritual benefits. The purchas...
Well-being is increasingly viewed as a multidimensional phenomenon, of which income is only one facet. In this paper I focus on another one, health, and look at its synthetic measure, life expectancy at birth, and its relationship with per capita income.
International trends of life expectancy and per capita GDP differed during the past 150 years....
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
This paper contributes to the debate on Europe's modern economic growth using the statistical concept of long-range dependence. Different regimes, defined as periods between two successive endogenously estimated structural shocks, matched episodes of pandemics and war. The most persistent shocks occurred at the time of the Black Death and the twent...
Chapter 4 investigates Augmented Human Development across world regions and focuses on the differences between advanced countries (the OECD) and the rest of the world over time. It takes a closer look at world regions, examining the contribution of each dimension to AHD gains and how they affect world distribution. Finally, it investigates catching...
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
Chapter 6 assesses long-run augmented human development in Africa. Augmented human development experienced sustained gains since 1880, faster between 1920 and 1960, under colonial rule, and at the turn of the century, but remains at the bottom of the world distribution, although the northern and southern regions forged ahead while the rest stayed b...
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
Did augmented human development improve in Latin America since 1870, what drove it, and did the gap with the OECD widen? Chapter 5 addresses these questions. Latin America presents sustained AHD gains since the late nineteenth century, especially during the 1940s and 1950s and from 1970 onwards, the 1980s in particular. AHD advance was not restrict...
Chapter 1 addresses the challenge of moving from an abstract concept, human development, to an empirical measure, the AHDI. The chapter discusses the measurement of human development, examining each of its dimensions: access to knowledge, a healthy life, and other aspects of well-being leading to a meaningful life, and exploring the reduced forms o...
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
How has Augmented Human Development been distributed across countries? Chapter 3 offers an answer. It presents long-run inequality trends for AHDI and its dimensions and examines gains across the distribution using growth incidence curves, in absolute and relative terms. Augmented human development inequality declined since 1900. In the long run, c...
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
In Chapter 2, trends in Augmented Human Development and its dimensions are presented and compared to those of GDP per head. Then, a breakdown of AHDI gains into their dimensions’ contribution is carried out, and some explanatory hypotheses proposed. Augmented human development improved significantly in the world since 1870, especially over 1913–198...
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
How has human development evolved during the last 150 years of globalization and economic growth? How has human development been distributed across countries? How do developing countries compare to developed countries? Do social systems matter for wellbeing? Are there differences in the performance of developing regions over time? Employing a capab...
This paper addresses international inequality in multidimensional well‐being during the last one‐and‐a‐half centuries. Inequality fell in health and education since the late 1920s, due to the globalization of mass schooling and the diffusion of the health transition, but only dropped in population‐weighted terms from 1970 onward for political and c...
Well-being is increasingly viewed as a multidimensional phenomenon, of which income is only one facet. In this paper I focus on another one, health, and look at its synthetic measure, life expectancy at birth, and its relationship with per capita income. International trends of life expectancy and per capita GDP differed during the past 150 years....
The rising trend in the capital-output ratio and the productivity slowdown have put capital back in the economist’s agenda. This paper contributes to the debate by providing new estimates of net capital stock and services for Spain over the last 170 years. The net capital (wealth) stock-GDP ratio rose over time and doubled in the last half a centur...
This short paper examines Patrick O’Brien’s bold reinterpretation of the British Industrial Revolution as a joint result of the expropriation of land by the landed aristocracy, abundant coal endowments, and the unintended consequences of self-defence, in the context of historical literature and contraposes it to evidence on long run growth and ineq...
In the past century and a half, substantial gains in well-being have been achieved across the board. This can be observed for the main dimensions of well-being: health, education, political voice, civil liberties, personal security, and material well-being. However, in the study of international well-being and its distribution, the focus remains on...
The second volume of The Cambridge Economic History of the Modern World explores the development of modern economic growth from 1870 to the present. Leading experts in economic history offer a series of regional studies from around the world, as well as thematic analyses of key factors governing the differential outcomes in different parts of the g...
Research in economic history has challenged a strict Malthusian depiction of preindustrial European economies, highlighting ‘efflorescences’, ‘Smithian’ and ‘growth recurring’ episodes. Do these defining concepts apply to preindustrial Spain? In this paper, we carry out new yearly estimates of output and population for over half-a millennium. We fi...
A long‐run view of well‐being over the last one‐and‐a‐half centuries is presented using an Augmented Human Development Index (AHDI) that combines achievements in health, education, material living standards, and political freedom. The AHDI shows substantial gains in world human development since 1870, although significant room for improvement still...
The study of international well-being and its distribution remains focused on income. This paper addresses multidimensional well-being from a capabilities perspective during the last one-and-a-half centuries. Relative inequality (population-weighted) fell in health and education since the late 1920s, due to the globalisation of mass schooling and t...
The contributions to this Special Issue present the state of the art of growth accounting in economic history, exhibiting its strengths and weaknesses. Three set of articles compose the issue: comparative papers that discuss the challenges ahead, long‐run perspectives on Britain since the Industrial Revolution, Japan, Italy and Spain from the late‐...
The current productivity slowdown has stimulated research on the causes of growth. We investigate here the proximate determinants of long‐term growth in Spain. Over the last 170 years, output per hour worked raised nearly 24‐fold dominating gross domestic product (GDP) growth, while hours worked per person shrank by one‐fourth and population treble...
The current productivity slowdown has stimulated research on the causes of growth. We investigate here the proximate determinants of long‐term growth in Spain. Over the last 170 years, output per hour worked raised nearly 24‐fold dominating gross domestic product (GDP) growth, while hours worked per person shrank by one‐fourth and population treble...
The Black Death was the most devastating demographic shock in recorded human history. However, the effects in the European population were highly asymmetrical as were its economic consequences. This paper surveys the short and long run economic effects of the plague in Spain in European perspective. While the demographic impact in Spain was moderat...
The rising trend in the capital-output ratio and the productivity slowdown have put capital back in the economist's agenda. This paper contributes to the debate by providing new estimates of net capital stock and services for Spain over the last 170 years. The net capital (wealth) stock-GDP ratio rose over time and doubled in the last half-a-centur...
The current productivity slowdown has stimulated research on the causes of growth. We investigate here the proximate determinants of long-term growth in Spain. Over the last 170 years output per hour worked raised nearly 24-fold dominating GDP growth, while hours worked per person shrank by one-fourth and population trebled. Half of labour producti...
Spain’s investment boom (1850–1874) has been largely attributed to capital inflows. Sudrià challenged the consensus on the basis of Moro et al. capital balance estimates. Dishoarding of bullion and previous savings would have catered for an increasing investment demand. I argue that the empirical basis for Sudrià's claim is flawed. Moro et al. unde...
The Black Death was the most devastating demographic shock in recorded human history. However, the effects in the European population were highly asymmetrical as were its economic consequences. This paper surveys the short and long run economic effects of the plague in Spain in European perspective. While the demographic impact in Spain was moderat...
This paper contributes to the debate on the origins of modern economic growth in Europe from a very long-run perspective using econometric techniques that allow for a long-range dependence approach. Different regimes, defined by endogenously estimated structural shocks, coincided with episodes of pandemics and war. The most persistent shocks occurr...
Has Cliometrics failed? In response to Stefano Fenoaltea’s melancholic assessment of the failures of the Cliometric School, this short comment notices the practical absence of cliometricians in the reinassance of historical work by economists (the historical legacy appraoch) and the reorientation of historians, long disconnected from Cliometrics, t...
In assessments of modern-day Spain’s economic progress and living standards, inadequate natural resources, inefficient institutions, lack of education and entrepreneurship, and foreign dependency are frequently blamed on poor performance up to the mid-20th century, but no persuasive arguments were provided to explain why such adverse circumstances...
En vísperas de la Gran Recesión, la desigualdad había aumentado durante tres décadas en los países desarrollados. Simultáneamente, la libertad económica era más elevada que en cualquier época anterior. ¿Existe un dilema entre preservar la libertad de los individuos y reducir la desigualdad? No se comprueba, sin embargo, una asociación a largo plazo...
To appear as Chapter 16 of The Cambridge Economic History of the Modern World, Volume 2: 1870-2010, edited by Stephen Broadberry and Kyoji Fukao
This paper provides a long run view of human development as a capabilities measure
of well‐being for the last one‐and‐a‐half centuries on the basis of an augmented
historical human development index [AHHDI] that combines achievements in health,
education, living standard, plus liberal democracy, and provides an alternative to the
UN Human Developme...
Spain experienced an investment boom over 1850-1874. Historians attributed a significant role to foreign capital inflow. Sudrià (2018) challenged the consensus on the basis of Moro, Nuño, and Tedde (2015) capital balance account estimates that imply a much lower capital inflow. Dishoarding of bullion and previous savings would have catered for an i...
This is an Open Access book that can be freely downloaded at https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-58042-5
This text offers a comprehensive and nuanced view of the economic development of Spain since 1850. It provides a new set of historical GDP estimates for Spain from the demand and supply sides, and presents a reconstruction of prod...
A breakdown of GDP per head into labour productivity and the amount of labour used per person can be made. Thus, GDP per person (GDP/N) will be expressed as GDP per hour worked (GDP/H), a measure of labour productivity, times the number of hours worked per person (H/N), a measure of effort.
Measuring aggregate economic activity through the expenditure side represents adding up all final products or sales to final demand. Ideally, each expenditure component should be computed with actual data from households, firms and public administration. Unfortunately, lack of direct evidence renders such a task impossible and the so-called commodi...
Modern economic growth is defined by the sustained improvement in GDP per head. From 1850 to 2015 while population trebled, real GDP per head in Spain experienced nearly
The latest round of national accounts (CNE10) provides data on the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) workers and hours worked and its distribution by industry from 1995 to 2015.
A long-run view of Spain’s economic performance cannot be completed without placing it in comparative perspective. In Fig. 4.1, Spain’s real GDP per head is presented along estimates for other large Western European countries: Italy, France, the UK, and Germany, plus the USA, the economic leader that represents the technological frontier, all expre...
In historical national accounts, as for most developing countries, the most reliable and easiest to estimate GDP figures are those obtained through the production approach.¹ As for most developing countries, real product has been computed from physical indicators rather than as a residual obtained from independently deflated output and inputs.
National accounts rely on complete information on quantities and prices to compute GDP for a single benchmark year, which is, then, extrapolated forward on the basis of limited information for a sample of goods and services.
Dearth of data forced CEN to split output indices into two segments with 1929 as the link year. In each case, independent production indices for agriculture and industry were obtained, from which an aggregate index was derived to approximate national income. No regard was paid to services and was implicitly assumed that output in services evolved a...
Aggregate economic activity multiplied fifty times between 1850 and 2015, at an average cumulative growth rate of 2.4% per year (Fig. 1.1).Open image in new windowFig. 1.1Real GDP at market prices, 1850–2015 (2010 = 100) (logs)
But how did GDP per head gains affect economic well-being? Within the existing national accounts framework, Sitglitz et al. (2009: 23–25) recommend to look at net rather than gross measures, in order to take into account the depreciation of capital goods. Net National Disposable Income (NNDI) measures income accruing to Spanish nationals, rather th...
Spain’s Statistical Office (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, INE) provides yearly series of ‘resident’ population from 1971.
Comparisons of economic performance over space and time largely depend on how statistical evidence from national accounts and historical estimates are spliced. To allow for changes in relative prices, GDP benchmark years in national accounts are periodically replaced with new and more recent ones. Thus, a homogeneous long-run GDP series requires li...
This paper explores the role of agriculture in Spain's contribution to the little divergence in Europe. On the basis of tithes, long-run trends in agricultural output are drawn. After a long period of relative stability, output suffered a severe contraction during 1570–1620, followed by stagnation to 1650, and steady expansion thereafter. Output pe...
Economic Growth and Measurement Reconsidered in Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia, 1965–1995. By Morten Jerven . Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014. xii + 215 pp. Figures, tables, bibliography, index. Cloth, $90.00. ISBN: 978-0-19-968991-0. - Volume 90 Issue 2 - Leandro Prados de la Escosura
Economic freedom can be defined as absence of interference and coercion in individuals’ economic decisions.
The aim of the new historical database is to provide a long-run view of economic freedom and its main dimensions (the legal framework and property rights, the value of money, international trade, and regulation).
In its current version, the...
Human development, defined as “a process of enlarging people’s choices”, namely, enjoying a healthy life, acquiring knowledge and achieving a decent standard of living, provides a long run view of human well-being.
The new Historical Index of Human Development (HIHD) includes also estimates of its main dimensions and covers up to 157 countries from...
How has Latin America’s wellbeing evolved over time? How does Latin America compare to today’s developed countries (OECD, for short)? What explains their differences? These questions are addressed using an historical index of human development. A sustained improvement in wellbeing can be observed since 1870. The absolute gap between OECD and Latin...
This paper explores the role of agriculture in Spain’s contribution to the little divergence in Europe. On the basis of tithes, long-run trends in agricultural output are drawn. After a long period of relative stability, output suffered a severe contraction during 1570-1590, followed by milder deterioration to 1650. Output per head moved from a rel...
Comparisons of economic performance over space and time largely
depend on how statistical evidence from national accounts and
historical estimates are spliced. To allow for changes in relative
prices, GDP benchmark years in national accounts are periodically
replaced with new and more recent ones. Thus, a homogeneous
long-run GDP series requires li...
This paper presents historical indices for the main dimensions of economic freedom and an aggregate index for nowadays developed countries -(pre-1994) OECD, for short-. Economic liberty expanded over the last one-and-a-half centuries, reaching two thirds of its maximum possible. Its evolution has been, however, far from linear. After a substantial...
How has well-being evolved under capitalism during the last one and a half centuries? How do advanced, capitalist nations, that is, Western Europe and the regions of European background plus Japan – (pre-1994) OECD, for short – compare with the rest of the world (the Rest)? Has social spending contributed to human development advancement in the OEC...
Long-run trends in Africa's wellbeing are provided on the basis of a new index of human
development, alternative to the UNDP's HDI. A long-run improvement in African human
development is found that it falls short of those experienced in other developing regions. A
closer look at Africa reveals the distinctive behaviour north and south of the Sahara...
The costs and benefits of European Imperialism from the conquest of Ceuta, 1415, to the Treaty of Lusaka, 1974. Twelfth International Economic History Congress. Madrid, 1998. Patrick K. O'Brien and Leandro Prados de la Escosura (eds.) Editada en la Fundación Empresa Pública Patrick K. O'Brien and Leandro Prados de la Escosura. The Costs and Benefit...
How has wellbeing evolved over time and across regions? How does the West compare to the Rest? What explains their differences? These questions are addressed using an historical index of human development. A sustained improvement in wellbeing has taken place since 1870. The absolute gap between OECD and the Rest widened over time, but an incomplete...
GDP figures for Africa are unreliable. More dependable information can be found in government expenditure and international trade records. These records, though, provide little insight into non-market output. In this paper an attempt is made to draw explicit conjectures on real output per head in pre-independence Africa on the basis of trade data s...
This paper is an attempt at assessing the economic impact of market-oriented reforms undertaken during General Franco’s dictatorship, in particular, the 1959 Stabilization and Liberalization Plan. Using an index of macroeconomic distortions (IMD) the relationship between economic policies and the growth record is examined. Although a gradual reduct...
Long-run trends in Africas well-being are provided on the basis of a new index of human development, alternative to the UNDPs HDI. A sustained improvement in African human development is found that falls, nonetheless, short of those experienced in other developing regions. Within Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen steadily behind the North sin...
Two distinctive regimes are distinguished in Spain over half-a-millennium. A first one (1270s-1590s) corresponds to a high land-labour ratio frontier economy, pastoral, trade-oriented, and led by towns. Wages and food consumption were relatively high. Sustained per capita growth occurred from the Reconquest's end (1264) to the Black Death (1340s) a...
O'RourkeKevin H. y WilliamsonJeffrey G.: Globalization and History. The Atlantic Economy in the Nineteenth Century, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1999, 343 pp. - Volume 20 Issue 3 - Leandro Prados De la Escosura
Abstract The pessimistic flavour of the Human Development Reports appears to be in contradiction with their own numbers as developing countries fare comparatively better in human development than in per capita GDP terms. This paper attempts to bridge this gap by providing a new, ‘improved’ human development index (IHDI), informed by welfare economi...
We investigate human capital accumulation in Spain using income- and education-based alternative approaches. We, then, assess human capital impact on labor productivity growth and discuss the implications of its alternative measures for TFP growth. Trends in human capital are similar with either measure but the skill-premium approach fits better Sp...