Laurent Dubus

• PhD, Physical Oceanography, University of Brest, 1999
• Researcher at RTE (Réseau de Transport d'électricité) & WEMC (World Energy & Meteorology Council)

Weather conditions associated with low electricity production from renewable energy sources (RESs) can result in so called ‘dunkelflaute’ events. For power system relying significantly on RES, such events can pose a risk for maintaining resource adequacy, i.e. the balance between generation and demand. Coincidence of a coldspell can enhance this ri...

Photovoltaic (PV) energy grows rapidly and is crucial for the decarbonization of electric systems. However, centralized registries recording the technical characteristics of rooftop PV systems are often missing, making it difficult to monitor this growth accurately. The lack of monitoring could threaten the integration of PV energy into the grid. T...

To reach climate mitigation goals, the share of wind power in electricity production is set to increase substantially in France. In winter, low-wind days are challenging for the electricity system when compounded with cold days that are associated with peak electricity demand. The scope of this study is to characterize the evolution of compound low...

OF THE ABSTRACT The Pan-European Climate Database (PECD) serves as the foundation for various prospective grid resiliency studies developed by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), including the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) and the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP). Since 2024, the...

OF THE ABSTRACT Regional PV modelling focuses on PV fleets rather than individual installations and, despite its critical role in energy system operation and planning, remains less consolidated than single-site modelling. Moreover, regional modelling involves several nuances that that may not be immediately obvious to newcomers, and these can signi...

Weather conditions associated with low electricity production from renewable energy sources (RES) can result in challenging 'dunkelflaute' events, where 'dunkel' means dark and 'flaute' refers to low windspeeds. In a power system relying significantly on RES, such events can pose a risk for maintaining resource adequacy, i.e. the balance between ge...

The global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity, vital for the electric sector’s decarbonation, reached 1552.3 GWp in 2023. In France, the capacity stood at 19.9 GWp in April 2024. The growth of the PV installed capacity over a year was nearly 32% worldwide and 15.7% in France. However, integrating PV electricity into grids is hindered by poor know...

Photovoltaic (PV) energy grows rapidly and is crucial for the decarbonization of electric systems. However, centralized registries recording the technical characteristifs of rooftop PV systems are often missing, making it difficult to accurately monitor this growth. The lack of monitoring could threaten the integration of PV energy into the grid. T...

The global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity, vital for the electric sector decarbonation, has reached 1,552.3 GWp in 2023. In France, the capacity stood in April 2024 at 19.9 GWp. The growth of the PV installed capacity over a year was nearly 32% worldwide and 15.7% in France. However, integrating PV electricity into grids is hindered by poor k...

To reach climate mitigation goals, the share of wind power in the electricity production is going to increase substantially in France. In winter, low wind days are challenging for the electricity system if compounded with cold days that are associated with peak electricity demand. The scope of this study is to characterize the evolution of compound...

The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has produced an operational climate service, called C3S Energy, designed to enable the energy industry and policymakers to assess the impacts of climate variability and climate change on the energy sector in Europe. The C3S Energy service covers different time horizons, for the past 40 years and the fu...

Estimations of solar surface irradiance (SSI) derived from meteorological satellites are widely used by various actors in the solar industry. However, even state-of-the-art empirical and physical SSI retrieval models exhibit significant errors; the estimations provided by these models are thus traditionally corrected using ground-based measurements...

Neural networks have shown remarkable performance in computer vision, but their deployment in real-world scenarios is challenging due to their sensitivity to image corruptions. Existing attribution methods are uninformative for explaining the sensitivity to image corruptions, while the literature on robustness only provides model-based explanations...

Photovoltaic (PV) energy generation plays a crucial role in the energy transition. Small-scale, rooftop PV installations are deployed at an unprecedented pace, and their safe integration into the grid requires up-to-date, high-quality information. Overhead imagery is increasingly being used to improve the knowledge of rooftop PV installations with...

In 2013, the European Network of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for Electricity (ENTSO-E) created the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), a tool that has underpinned most studies conducted by TSOs ever since. So far, the different versions of the PECD have used so-called modern-era “reanalysis” products that represent a gridded amalgamation...

Photovoltaic (PV) energy generation plays a crucial role in the energy transition. Small-scale PV installations are deployed at an unprecedented pace, and their integration into the grid can be challenging since public authorities often lack quality data about them. Overhead imagery is increasingly used to improve the knowledge of residential PV in...

Climate change (CC) poses a threat to renewable hydropower, which continues to play a significant role in energy generation in West Africa (WA). Thus, the assessment of the impacts of climate change and climate variability on hydropower generation is critical for dam management. This study develops a framework based on ensemble climate models and e...

We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where...

Photovoltaic (PV) energy is key to mitigating the current energy crisis. However, distributed PV generation, which amounts to half of the PV energy generation, makes it increasingly difficult for transmission system operators (TSOs) to balance the load and supply and avoid grid congestions. Indeed, in the absence of measurements, estimating the dis...

The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has produced an operational climate service, called C3S Energy, designed to enable the energy industry and policy makers to assess the impacts of climate variability and climate change on the energy sector in Europe. The C3S Energy service covers different time horizons, for the past forty years and th...

estimation of solar resource in a solar thermal plant

The ASoRA method consists in estimating the solar resource in tower concentrated solar plants by exploiting global data sets. The solar resource parameters are not only the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) but also the slant path transmittance (Tsp). The column to surface-level conversion process was validated by comparing the retrieved aerosol extin...

Climate simulations consistently show an increase in European near-surface air temperature by the late 21st century, although projections for near-surface wind speeds and irradiance differ between models, and are accompanied by large natural variability. These factors make it difficult to estimate the effects of physical climate change on power sys...

A wind turbine's power curve relates its power production to the wind speed it experiences. The typical shape of a power curve is well known and has been studied extensively. However, power curves of individual turbine models can vary widely from one another. This is due to both the technical features of the turbine (power density, cut-in and cut-o...

Hydro power can provide a source of dispatchable low-carbon electricity and a storage solution in a climate-dependent energy mix with high shares of wind and solar production. Therefore, understanding the effect climate has on hydro power generation is critical to ensure a stable energy supply, particularly at a continental scale. Here, we introduc...

Climate information is necessary for the energy sector. However, the use of climate projections has remained limited so far for a number of reasons such us the lack of consistency among climate projections, the inadequate temporal and spatial resolution, the climate model biases, the lack of guidance for users, and the size of data sets. In this wo...

The development of successful climate services faces a number of challenges, including the identification of the target audience and their needs and requirements, and the effective communication of complex climate information, through engagement with a range of stakeholders. This paper describes how these challenges were tackled during the European...

A wind turbine's power curve relates its power production to the wind speed it experiences. The typical shape of a power curve is well known and has been studied extensively; however, the power curves of individual turbine models can vary widely from one another. This is due to both the technical features of the turbine (power density, cut-in and c...

We demonstrate the current levels of skill for seasonal forecasts of wind and irradiance in Europe, using forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that a simple linear regre...

The diffusometer instrument informs about changes in aerosol load affecting the attenuation of the solar radiation along the slant path in central tower concentrated solar thermal plants (CSP). The diffusometer measurements need to be corrected according to the aerosol nature. Three correcting factors are computed by applying the Mie theory on the...

The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) has produced, in close collaboration with prospective users, a proof-of-concept climate service, or Demonstrator, designed to enable the energy industry and policy makers assess how well different energy supply mixes in Europe will meet demand, over different time...

In this paper we analyse and quantify the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the daily hydropower generation in the European countries. We create a consistent dataset of hydropower generation using a machine- learning methodology, this activity is an output of the Copernicus Climate Change Service ECEM contract. The model is set up using...

Classical approaches to the calculation of the photovoltaic (PV) power generated in a region from meteorological data require the knowledge of the detailed characteristics of the plants, which are most often not publicly available. An approach is proposed with the objective to obtain the best possible assessment of power generated in any region wit...

Work at the nexus between energy and meteorology aims at integrating meteorological information into operational risk management and strategic planning for the energy sector, at all timescales, from long-term climate change and climate variability to shorter term local weather. Weather and climate risk management can be a powerful instrument for de...

The energy sector significantly depends on weather and climate variability, which impacts both demand and supply, at all timescales. Over the next decades, climate change mitigation and adaptation will lead to an overhaul in energy systems, to reduce greenhouse gases emissions. Low carbon energy generation is key to facing this challenge, but its r...

The interplay between energy and meteorology (based on its broad meaning of weather, water and climate) has been steadily growing. For this relationship to continue flourishing, a formal structure for stakeholders to interact effectively is required. The process of formation of the World Energy & Meteorology Council (WEMC), an organisation aimed at...

The poster shows what correction to apply on diffusometer measurements to provide ground-based proof of the aerosol extinction coefficient, in order to estimate the satellite estimates of the attenuation by aerosols in the slant path between heliostat and optical receiver of the Concentrating Solar power Plants.

By scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols generate production losses in solar plants. Due to the specific design of solar tower plants, solar radiation is attenuated not only in the atmospheric column but also in the slant path between the heliostats and the receiver. Broadband attenuation by aerosols is estimated in both the column and...

a poster presenting the last results of the ASoRA project, on the aerosol contribution on solar resource parameters for Tower Solar Thermal Energy Plants.

By scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols generate production losses in solar plants. Due to the specific design of solar tower plants, solar radiation is attenuated not only in the atmospheric column but also in the slant path between the heliostats and the receiver. Broadband attenuation by aerosols is estimated in both the column and...

Sector-specific vulnerability to climate variability is very valuable information for users and providers of seasonal- to decadal (S2D) climate information to enhance the constructive development and thus the usability of climate service products. Established climate-related vulnerability assessment frameworks generally pursue a top-down approach....

Aerosols attenuate the solar radiation collected by solar tower plants (STP), along two pathways: 1) the atmospheric column pathway, between the top of the atmosphere and the heliostats, resulting in Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) changes; 2) the grazing pathway close to surface level, between the heliostats and the optical receiver. The attenuatio...

Sector-specific vulnerability to climate variability is very valuable information for users and providers of seasonal- to decadal (S2D) climate information to enhance the constructive development and thus the usability of climate service products. Established climate-related vulnerability assessment frameworks generally pursue a top-down approach....

The objective of this task was to test strategies for communicating levels of confidence and uncertainty in seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate predictions with relevant stakeholders. To do this we ran two online Decision Labs: a) an ‘Abridged’ Decision Lab with a general sample of European decision makers in relevant sectors, and b) a ‘Full’ Decisio...

Aerosols attenuate the solar radiation collected by solar tower plants (STP), along two pathways: 1) the atmospheric column pathway, between the top of the atmosphere and the heliostats, resulting in Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) changes; 2) the grazing pathway close to surface level, between the heliostats and the optical receiver. The attenuatio...

Aerosols attenuate the solar radiation along two pathways: 1) the vertical pathway, between the top of the atmosphere and the heliostats, resulting in Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) changes; 2) the horizontal pathway in the surface atmospheric layer, between the heliostats and the optical receiver. We present the second impact of the aerosols on th...

In this report we detail the strategies for communicating uncertainty and confidence developed in Task 33.3. Strategy development was informed by both our review of the literature on communicating uncertainty (T33.2) and our survey of user needs (T33.1), which demonstrated both that user’s vary in their ability to utilise statistical and technical...

Weather and climate information is essential to the energy sector. The power sector in particular has been using both observations and forecasts of many meteorological and hydrological parameters for several decades. In the last 10 years, a clear upward trend has been observed in the number, complexity, and value of data provided by National Meteor...

It is the purpose of this book to provide the meteorological knowledge and tools to improve the risk management of energy industry decisions, ranging from the long term finance and engineering planning assessments to the short term operational measures for scheduling and maintenance. Most of the chapters in this book are based on presentations give...

The growing body of knowledge and experience in weather and climate risk management in the energy industry has driven a rapidly growing research interest in establishing links between weather, climate, and energy. Weather and climate information is also critical to managing the energy supply from other energy sectors along with better understanding...

Several regions of the world have developed capability in providing services on climate information for risk management, but there are still gaps in service delivery due to inadequate information regarding the needs within the regions. This paper highlights the role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums, assesses the needs for some regions and extract...

Photovoltaic power production is developing quickly in La Reunion (Indian Ocean). In order to integrate this fluctuating energy source into the network, reliable production forecasts are necessary from real time to day+3. Weather forecasts from standard models are in general inadequate, in particular due to too coarse resolution in this complex oro...

The Petit Saut Dam and reservoir are an important component of french Guyana’s power network, as it represents more than one half of the installed production capacity. Therefore, accurate and reliable precipitation forecasts over the reservoir’s basin are crucial for production planning. In particular, some key elements are important to forecast, e...

Optimal operation of hydro-power plants requires accurate forecasts of precipitation which are then integrated into hydrological models to forecast river flows and water volumes in reservoirs. Precipitation is a difficult parameter to forecast, especially at long lead times (monthly and over) one of the reasons being the too coarse resolution of nu...

Les modeles climatiques sont adaptes a la representation de la circulation atmospherique de grande echelle et du climat moyen de grandes regions du monde. Le lien entre la circulation atmospherique de grande echelle, et plus precisement ses structures stables et recurrentes que sont les regimes de temps, et les conditions locales est utilise dans c...

Forecasting water flows into the French hydro-power system reservoirs over periods ranging from a few hours to several months ahead is essential for operational planning purposes. For time scales between 1 and 10 days, EDF currently uses hydrological models forced by precipitation and temperature forecasts, the first ones being obtained from large...

The energy sector is highly dependent on climate conditions, whatever the particular field of activity, the production means, and the time scale. In developed countries, it is probably one of the most important users of Earth observation products and weather and climate forecasts. Extreme events such as heat waves or cold waves, wind storms or floo...

Managing the power generation system at the scale of a country is a very complex problem which involves in particular climatic variables at different space and time scales. Air temperature and precipitation are among the most important ones, as they explain respectively an important part of the demand variability and the hydro power production capa...

In operational conditions, the actual quality of meteorological and hydrological forecasts do not allow decision-making in a certain future. In this context, meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of forecasts uncertainties. Compared to classical deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts improve the human...

As electricity can not be stored, a balance between offer (production) and demand (consumption) has to be ensured permanently. The management of the power generation system at the scale of a country is a very complex problem as it involves many different constraints, rules and external variables. Weather is of course a key element of this optimizat...

The management of the power generation system at the scale of a country is a very complex problem which involves in particular climatic variables at different spatial and time scales. Air temperature and precipitation are among the most important ones, as they explain respectively an important part of the demand variability and the hydro power prod...

The EDF group is the biggest French electric power producer and distributor. Its activities are greatly related to weather and climate. In particular, optimal management of the hydroelectric power production system requires a good forecast of water resources, from several days to several months in advance. Currently, only climatology at the seasona...

The observed and simulated low-frequency winter variability of the North Atlantic and European region is investigated based on the climate regimes paradigm. Empirical orthogonal functions and cluster analyses are used to describe the variability of monthly mean sea level pressure over the 1958–2001 period, both in the European Centre for Medium- Ra...

The observed and simulated low-frequency winter variability of the North Atlantic and European region is investigated based on the climate regimes paradigm. Empirical orthogonal functions and cluster analyses are used to describe the variability of monthly mean sea level pressure over the 1958–2001 period, both in the European Centre for Medium-Ran...