Lasse Fridstrøm

• PhD
• Transportøkonomisk institutt, TØI

Fra 2021 til 2022 gikk CO2-utslippet i norsk veitransport ned med 1,3 prosent, til 8,715 millioner tonn. Dette går fram av Transportøkonomisk institutts nye CO2-monitor – en enkel regnerutine for å følge veitransportutslippet fra måned til måned og sammenlikne dette med foreliggende framskrivinger og måltall. Utslippstallene framkommer ved at en be...

By soft-linking models for transport demand, vehicle turnover and energy generation and use, we show how such models can complement each other and become more relevant and reliable policy support tools. A freight demand model is used to project commodity flows onto the 2050 horizon. An energy system model is used to map the relationships between en...

Our new explanation of the extraordinary clustered occurrence in OECD countries of 18 national road fatality maxima during the 5 years 1970−1974 consists in adding the variable ROAD TRAFFIC INTENSITY OF GDP to a basic equation specification already containing GDP PER CAPITA. The former acts as proxy for the ratio of total (intermediate and final) t...

Exploiting a generic nested logit model of automobile choice, we derive response functions for car retail prices, energy prices, tax rates and technology enhancements affecting new passenger car sales in Norway as of 2020. According to the model, a significant change in the market would result if battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were again to bec...

Vi dekomponerer klimaproblemet i norsk veitransport og avliver noen myter om hva som skal til. Det er ikke det alminnelige forbruket, men klimagassutslippet som er fienden. Rop i skogen av typen «vi må endre levevis», «vi må redusere forbruket» eller «det må svi skikkelig hvis det skal virke» bidrar til å avspore klimapolitikken. Slike besvergelse...

Ved hjelp av energimodellen IFE-TIMES-Norge, den nasjonale godstransportmodellen NGM og kjøretøymodellen BIG beregnes en utviklingsbane for veitransporten som, med 50 prosent økt forbruk av biodrivstoff, vil innebære 60 prosent lavere klimagassutslipp på veiene i 2030 enn i 2005. Både batteri, biogass og hydrogen forutsettes da tatt i bruk i stor s...

Demografenes verktøykasse kan med fordel anvendes på bestanden av kjøretøy. Vi viser hvordan en kan tegne alderspyramider og overlevelseskurver, beregne forventet levealder eller framskrive trafikkarbeid, energiforbruk, utslipp til luft og antall biler som vrakes eller avregistreres. Levetiden for bensindrevne personbiler i Norge beregnes til 16–17...

Demographic concepts and methods may help understand the dynamics of the motor vehicle population, or its inertia. Relying on a stock-flow cohort model of the Norwegian vehicle fleet, we generate, for seven different vehicle categories, age pyramids, survival curves, and life expectancy estimates, along with algorithms predicting vehicle stocks, ag...

Zero emission technologies for heavy-duty freight vehicles can become competitive as a result of increasing returns to scale coupled with high carbon taxes on fossil fuel. Through an integration of models covering, respectively, transportation demand, the vehicle fleet, and the energy system, a pathway toward zero emission road transportation in No...

Ved hjelp av modellene IFE-TIMES-Norge, NGM og BIG er det utarbeidet et veikart for den norske veitransportens energibruk og klimagassutslipp fram til 2050. Målet er å belyse hvordan veitransporten kan bidra til at klimamålene i ikke-kvotepliktig sektor blir nådd. Særlig vekt er lagt på tungtransporten, der en foreløpig ikke har oppnådd omstilling...

Exploiting a disaggregate discrete choice model of automobile purchase, we reveal the willingness-to-pay for extended all-electric range in battery and plug-in hybrid electric cars in Norway. We find diminishing returns to range. By integration under the marginal willingness-to-pay curve, we calculate and plot the value of 100 km extended range. Fr...

Utsiktene til klimagasskutt i veitransporten studeres ved hjelp av TØIs framskrivingsmodell for kjøretøyparken – BIG. En videreføring av dagens virkemiddelbruk vil neppe være tilstrekkelig til å nå et mål om 50 prosents klimagasskutt i veitransporten i 2030 sammenliknet med 2005. Energiforbruket i veitransport vil synke, til tross for at trafikken...

Retired passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to generate significant volumes of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), opening business opportunities for second life and recycling. In order to evaluate these, robust estimates of the future quantity and composition of LIBs are imperative. Here, we analyzed BEV fate in the Norwegian passeng...

Despite their similarities, Scandinavian countries have adopted starkly different automobile tax regimes. The Danish system entails very high and convex tax rates with moderate CO2 differentiation. In Norway, tax rates are high and convex with strong CO2 differentiation and total exemptions for zero emission vehicles, even from value added tax. Swe...

Etterspørselen etter nye personbiler i Norge blir analysert ved hjelp av en økonometrisk modell basert på data om nesten alle førstegangs¬registrerte nye personbiler i Norge i perioden fra januar 2003 til mai 2019, i alt 2 097 288 enkeltkjøretøy. De ulike bilmodellvariantene er beskrevet på svært detaljert nivå, idet salget hvert enkelt år er forde...

The paper describes the anatomy of electric car ownership in Norway, the country with the highest market share of low-emission vehicles, based on matched administrative micro data covering the entire population of private car owners. Socioeconomic characteristics are strong predictors of the car portfolio. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) ownership i...

The rapid market uptake of battery and hybrid electric cars in Norway is unparalleled. We examine the fiscal policy instruments behind this development. In essence, the Norwegian policy consists in taxing internal combustion engine vehicles rather than subsidizing electric ones. There are 14 different fiscal incentives in place bearing on vehicles,...

Aim The primary goals of this research are (i) to derive direct and cross demand market response functions for automobile powertrains and their energy carriers and (ii) to assess how CO 2 emissions from automobiles depend on vehicle and energy prices Methods The market demand for automobiles with differing powertrains is studied by means of a disc...

Rapporten gjennomgår avgiftsvirkemidlene i veisektoren og summerer og oversetter disse til et sett karbonpriser. For eie og bruk av personbiler anslås prisen til over 12 000 kr per tonn CO2 i 2019. For varebiler beregnes prisen til minst 5000 kr per tonn, og for tunge lastebiler til ca. 2000 kr per tonn. Karbonprisene kan langt på vei forklare veks...

For some countries, the bar graphs showing daily coronavirus incidence data reported on the Johns Hopkins University website seem curiously smooth, almost as if the data have been cooked prior to reporting. To investigate this, we calculate and compare 3- and 7-day dispersion ratios for a set of comparable countries during May 30 to July 20, 2020....

The KORMOD model of the corona epidemic is ridiculously simple - rich in terms of output, but undemanding in terms of input. The only information used is the daily incidence of new positive coronavirus tests. The prevalence of infectious people is calculated as the sum of all new infections (the incidences) 3 to 9 days back. The daily incidence rat...

KORMOD – a simple model of the coronavirus epidemics in Norway in Sweden The Swedish and Norwegian coronavirus epidemics are studied by means of a ludicrously simple spreadsheet model, named KORMOD. The prevalence of infectious people is calculated as the sum of all individuals infected 3 to 9 days earlier, or by applying the gamma-shaped serial...

In Transportation Research Part A 133: 79-81, Francisco Bahamonde-Birke asks “Who will bell the cat? … [and presumably disclose] … the fact that, under current conditions and with flat energy prices, a substantial increase in the number of EVs [electric vehicles] in many countries would necessarily result in an increase of CO2 emissions”. B-B wants...

Electrification of the vehicle fleet is widely seen as a key element in national governments’ endeavor to bring down greenhouse gas emissions from transport. Policies vary considerably between countries, some resorting to subsidization, others relying on taxation, and many national and supranational authorities – such as the EU – emphasizing emissi...

Regjeringen og Stortinget har fastsatt ærgjerrige mål for innfasingen av nullutslipps-kjøretøy. Dersom en skulle lykkes med å nå disse målene, vil skatteinngangen forvitre, biltrafikken øke og framkommeligheten avta i takt med at bilkjøring blir mye billigere. Vårt ytterst mangelfulle virkemiddel for å regulere trafikken, drivstoff-avgiften, blir e...

Denne rapporten analyserer mulighetene og betingelsene for å nå kjøretøymålene i Nasjonal Transportplan om at det bare skal selges nullutslipps kjøretøy i personbil, lette varebiler og bybuss segmentene i 2025, og bare selges nullutslipps tunge varebiler og henholdvis 50% og 75% nullutslipps lastebiler og langdistansebusser i 2030. Personbilmålet f...

The present motor vehicle taxation system in Norway is facing multiple challenges. The fuel taxes, the explicitly stated goal of which is to internalize the external costs of road use, fall far short of their purpose. As an increasing share of the automobile fleet is electrified, the fuel taxes become even more irrelevant as a market correction mec...

The unprecedented speed at which Norwegian automobile buyers have embraced battery electric technology has taken observers, policy makers, stakeholders and even protagonists by surprise. In 2018, 31 per cent of all new passenger cars sold in Norway were battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Over the first six months of 2019, the BEV market share had ri...

Den vertikale separasjonen av jernbanen er basert på en feilaktig markedsavgrensing. En har etablert konkurranseflaten på galt sted – på kryss og tvers gjennom jernbanesektoren. Konkurransen behøver ikke skje på eller om sporet. Konkurranse langs sporet ville være nok. Vi ville være bedre tjent med ett fullintegrert, delprivatisert og børsnotert...

Rapporten gir en oversikt over dagens bilavgiftssystem og skisserer et mulig framtidig bilavgiftssystem. De norske bilavgiftene sammenholdes med de beregnede marginale eksterne kostnadene ved veitrafikk. Avgiftssystemene i Danmark og Sverige gjennomgås og sammenliknes med det norske. Rapporten påviser svikten i dagens veiavgiftssystem og beskriver...

The Norwegian system of motor vehicle taxation is described and compared to estimated external costs of road use. Also, the Norwegian system is compared to those of Denmark and Sweden. A future system relying on marginal cost road pricing is sketched.

Avgifts- og fortjenestepåslaget på tjenester som konkurrerer med selvberging, kan hindre eller forsinke overgangen til lavutslippssamfunnet. Mens arbeidsinnsatsen ved å kjøre egen bil er skattefri, må kollektivtransporten svare moms, arbeidsgiveravgift, trygdeavgift og inntektsskatt. Skattekilen kan være til hinder for bærekraftige nye kollektive a...

Den graderte beskatningen av personbiler med forbrenningsmotor har, sammen med avgiftsfritakene for nullutslippsbiler, avgjørende betydning for nye norske bilers gjennomsnittlige drivstofforbruk og klimagassutslipp. Viktigst er CO2-komponenten i engangsavgiften. Om en fjernet denne, ville CO2-utslippet øke med anslagsvis 32 prosent regnet per 2016....

WE DEVELOP, within the framework of aggregate yearly road safety models, a new explanation of the extraordinary simultaneous occurrence in OECD countries of 18 national road fatality maxima during the 5 year period 1970-1974 (including 11 in 1972-1973), a puzzle referred to as “The Matterhorn” by Stipdonk (2007) in his comments on the earlier diagn...

State-of-the-art travel demand models for Norway have been run with the aim of revealing the equity effects of selected policy measures for greenhouse gas abatement. The Oslo Intercity Regional Model, comprising roughly 43 per cent of Norway's five million population, was used to study short distance trips in southeastern Norway, i. e. in and aroun...

Pour atteindre les objectifs fixés dans l'accord de Paris et dans les documents de la politique climatique de l'Union Européenne, les flottes de véhicules routiers devront subir une transition énergétique massive dans les décennies à venir. Il faudra que les véhicules neufs acquis soient nettement supérieurs aux anciens véhicules mis au rebut, en c...

To meet the targets laid down in the Paris agreement and in the European Union's climate policy documents, road vehicle fleets will have to undergo a massive energy transition in the decades ahead. New vehicles acquired need to be distinctly superior to the old vehicles scrapped, in terms of their energy efficiency and/or carbon intensity. To kee...

Pour atteindre les objectifs fixés dans l’accord de Paris et dans les documents de la politique climatique de l’Union Européenne, les flottes de véhicules routiers devront subir une transition énergétique massive dans les décennies à venir. Il faudra que les véhicules neufs acquis soient nettement supérieurs aux anciens véhicules mis au rebut, en c...

Bilavgiftene i statsbudsjettet for 2017 kan antas å medføre en reduksjon i de årlige CO2-utslippene fra veitrafikk på minst 185 000 tonn. Utslippene blir dobbeltbeskattet gjennom så vel drivstoffavgifter som engangsavgift på førstegangsregistrerte biler. Dette medfører samfunnsøkonomisk tap. Det politiske interessante spørsmålet er likevel hvilke a...

PurposeThe introduction of novel fuel and propulsion technologies, such as battery, (plug-in) hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles, and the need to combat the exhaust emission of local and global pollutants from the passenger car fleet have enhanced the political interest in the vehicle purchase choices made by private households and firms, and i...

Relying on a stock-flow cohort model of the Norwegian motor vehicle fleet, we examine the prospects for radical greenhouse gas abatement through automobile, bus and freight vehicle fleet renewal. Under highly optimistic assumptions regarding market uptake of zero and low emission vehicles, CO2 exhaust emissions from the motor vehicle fleet could be...

PurposeVarious regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. The incentives operate primarily—or exclusively—on the newest generation of cars. But how fast will technological developments affecting new vehicle models penetrate into the car fleet? The spee...

With a focus on equity effects, several CO2 abatement measures bearing on automobile taxation have been studied by means of network travel demand models and a discrete choice model for vehicle purchase. The commuter tax credit in effect in Norway helps equalize welfare between low and high income communities. Revoking it would be a strongly regress...

With a focus on equity effects, several CO2 abatement measures bearing on automobile taxation have been studied by means of network travel demand models and a discrete choice model for vehicle purchase. The commuter tax credit in effect in Norway helps equalize welfare between low and high income communities. Revoking it would be a strongly regress...

With a focus on equity effects, several CO2 abatement measures bearing on automobile taxation have been studied by means of network travel demand models and a discrete choice model for vehicle purchase. The commuter tax credit in effect in Norway helps equalize welfare between low and high income communities. Revoking it would be a strongly regress...

Det er tre rasjonelle grunner til at de pensjonsberettigede kan ønske å starte pensjonsuttaket tidlig. De kan ha mer nøyaktig informasjon om egen gjenstående levealder enn det som følger av dødelighetstabellene. De kan ønske å minimere risikoen for at samlet pensjonsutbetaling skal bli null eller svært lav. Eller de kan legge vekt på at den som bli...

Accident count data are non-negative integers. A large part of the variation in such data is due to sheer and unexplainable randomness. There are strong reasons to believe that accident data are, at least approximately, Poisson distributed. Acknowledging this fact opens the door to an arsenal of quite efficient inference methods. We explain how the...

Policy measures to drastically reduce the climate footprint of Norwegian transport has been the subject of an interdisciplinary research project called TEMPO: Transport and Environment, Measures and POlicies. Thanks to the substantial purchase tax levied on new passenger cars, the Norwegian government has a very potent policy instrument at its hand...

This paper reports the findings of two studies made eleven years apart in Norway (Fridstrøm, 2000; Elvik and Kaminska, 2011) to evaluate effects on accidents of changes in the use of studded tyres in major cities in Norway. The first study covered the period from 1991 to 2000, the second study covered the period from 2002 to 2009. In both these per...

The external accident cost of road use is a function of the marginal relationship between road use and accidents, as expressed, for instance, by the elasticity. This elasticity is, however, not necessarily constant, but may be assumed to depend on the traffic volume as seen in relation to road capacity. Dense or congested traffic may force speed le...

To investigate the equity effect of road pricing, a realistic transportation network modeling exercise has been undertaken, simulating a first best road pricing strategy as well as various second best strategies as implemented in the Oslo toll ring. The model predicts trip generation, destination choice, mode split, and route assignment, separately...

During their joint meeting in Skagen (Denmark) on 6–7 September 2001, the competition authorities of the Nordic countries established a task force to examine the degree of competition in Nordic and European aviation and to suggest measures to enhance it. The Task Force submitted its report, entitled Competitive Airlines, in June 2002. This paper su...

During their joint meeting in Skagen (Denmark) on 6–7 September 2001, the competition authorities of the Nordic countries established a task force to examine the degree of competition in Nordic and European aviation and to suggest measures to enhance it. The Task Force's analyses, main arguments and conclusions are presented in the present report.

The choice between own-account and third-party commodity transportation in the Norwegian wholesale trade industry is studied by means of a two-level conjoint analysis. An attempt is made to draw companies (upper level) and shipments (lower level) at random. Quality factors considered include freight time, punctuality, damage risk, vehicle advertisi...

Marginal cost transport pricing - if implemented in European cities - may give rise to substantial welfare benefits for the urban populations. Depending on the local conditions and on the policy instruments used, annual welfare gains may typically amount to 100-400 euros per capita, as measured by the willingness-to-pay within the affected urban po...

This report discusses how to evaluate Private Public Partnership (PPP) projects for road construction in Norway. It is recommended that the evaluation consist of a cost-benefit analysis, a financial analysis and a distributional analysis. There are three main elements which could be viewed more or less independently from each other, viz the transfe...

Using a fairly large cross-section/time-series data base, covering all provinces of Norway and all months between January 1973 and December 1994, we estimate non-linear (Box-Cox) regression equations explaining aggregate car ownership, road use, seat belt use, accident frequency, and accident severity. Explanatory variables used include road infras...

IRPOSKML is an acronym for Iterative Reweighted Poisson-Skedastic Maximum Likelihood - a procedure to estimate Box-Cox accident and severity regression models with Poisson disturbance variance.

During the winters of 1998 and 1999, an experimental study on temporarily reduced wintertime speed limits was performed, involving a number of different road links in rural Norway. The aim has been to assess the effect of reduced wintertime speed limits on speed, under varying conditions. A data set consisting of 16 786 observations was gathered on...

The municipalities of Sweden will implement the "Vision Zero" of road safety at varying pace, by – e g – rebuilding the roads, lowering the speed limits, or enforcing safety standards in public agencies. This "natural experiment" might pave the ground for a powerful, pooled cross-section/time-series analysis of road accidents and their determinants...

We investigate the power of significance tests in a generalized Poisson regression model for municipal accident counts in Sweden. The municipalities of Sweden will implement the "Vision Zero" of road safety at varying pace, by – e g – rebuilding the roads, lowering the speed limits, or enforcing safety standards in public agencies. This "natural ex...

An attempt is made to reveal the preference of decision makers within the regional Norwegian public roads administration. The order of priority assigned to the respective, competing public road investment opportunities within the various countries (provinces) is studied by means of a rank order multinomial logit model. Explanatory variables used in...

Road accident counts are influenced by random variation as well as by various systematic, causal factors. To study these issues, a four-country, segmented data base has been compiled, each segment consisting of monthly accident counts, along with candidate explanatory factors, in the various counties (provinces) of Denmark, Finland, Norway, or Swed...

The choice between own account and hire commodity transportation in the Norwegian wholesale trade industry is studied by means of conjoint analysis. Implicit values of time are generally found to exceed the rate of interest by a two- or three-digit factor. Thus the cost of capital appears to play only a minor role when companies make their choice o...

An inquiry into the definition and measurement of causal relations, with particular emphasis on the econometric tradition

The determinants of personal injury road accidents and their severity are studied by means of generalized Poisson regression models estimated on the basis of combined cross-section/time-series data. Monthly data have been assembled for 18 Norwegian counties (every county but one), covering the period from January 1974 until December 1986. A rather...

The more time-saving products we adopt, the higher becomes our productivity, and the stronger becomes our feeling that time is short. This is the paradox of time-saving.

A direct demand intercity gravity model has been developed with the purpose of forecasting air traffic volumes on the entire conventional Norwegian network. The model has been calibrated econometrically using combined cross-sectional and time series data on traffic flows, fares, travel time, income, and population. Fares and travel time are taken i...

RESUMEN Se puede suponer – con gran confianza – que el número de accidentes sucedidos, dentro de cierto período de tiempo y cierto espacio geográfico, es la realización de una variable aleatoria generada por la distribución de Poisson. Esta distribución tiene la cualidad extraordinaria de que la varianza es igual al valor esperado. Es decir que una...

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