Kyra Grantz

Kyra Grantz
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health | JHSPH · Department of Epidemiology

About

45
Publications
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8,068
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Publications

Publications (45)
Article
Background: Current supply shortages constrain yellow fever vaccination activities, particularly outbreak response. Although fractional doses of all WHO-prequalified yellow fever vaccines have been shown to be safe and immunogenic in a randomised controlled trial in adults, they have not been evaluated in a randomised controlled trial in young chi...
Article
Background: Evidence indicates that fractional doses of yellow fever vaccine are safe and sufficiently immunogenic for use during yellow fever outbreaks. However, there are no data on the generalisability of this observation to populations living with HIV. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the immunogenicity of fractional and standard doses of yello...
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Background: Serological surveys are used to ascertain influenza infection and immunity, but evidence for the utility of mucosal immunoglobulin A (IgA) as a correlate of infection or protection is limited. Methods: We performed influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance on 220 individuals living or working in a retirement community in Gainesville,...
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Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the U...
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Full-text available
This study aimed to quantify the burden of relapse following successful treatment for uncomplicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and to identify associated risk factors in rural Niger. We used data from 1490 children aged 6-59 months discharged as recovered from an outpatient nutritional programme for SAM and followed for up to 12 weeks after ad...
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Full-text available
Because of the importance of schools to childhood development, the relationship between in-person schooling and COVID-19 risk has been one of the most important questions of this pandemic. Previous work in the United States during winter 2020-2021 showed that in-person schooling carried some risk for household members and that mitigation measures r...
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SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from al...
Preprint
Full-text available
Because of the importance of schools to childhood development, the relationship between in-person schooling and COVID-19 risk has been one of the most important questions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous work using data from the United States in winter 2020-21 showed that in-person schooling carried some risk for household members, and that mitig...
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Full-text available
Background Children are important in community-level influenza transmission. School-based monitoring may inform influenza surveillance. Methods We used reported weekly confirmed influenza in Allegheny County during the 2007 and 2010-2015 influenza seasons using Pennsylvania's Allegheny County Health Department all-age influenza cases from health f...
Preprint
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term...
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Full-text available
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (Reff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions...
Article
After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and rel...
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The coronavirus disease pandemic has highlighted the key role epidemiologic models play in supporting public health decision-making. In particular, these models provide estimates of outbreak potential when data are scarce and decision-making is critical and urgent. We document the integrated modeling response used in the US state of Utah early in t...
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Full-text available
Background: Test-trace-isolate programs are an essential part of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) control that offer a more targeted approach than many other nonpharmaceutical interventions. Effective use of such programs requires methods to estimate their current and anticipated impact. Methods and findings: We present a mathematical modelin...
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Full-text available
Back to school—safely Severe COVID-19 in children is rare, but many schools remain closed because the transmission risk that school contact poses to adults and the wider community is unknown. Observing the heterogeneity of approaches taken among U.S. school districts, Lessler et al. investigated how different strategies influence COVID-19 transmiss...
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Full-text available
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care and mechanical ventilation. During these uncertain times, public health decision makers, from city health departments to federal agencies, sought the use of epidemiological models fo...
Article
Full-text available
Background Information on the etiology and age-specific burden of respiratory viral infections among school-aged children remains limited. Though school aged children are often recognized as driving the transmission of influenza as well as other respiratory viruses, little detailed information is available on the distribution of respiratory infecti...
Preprint
Full-text available
In-person schooling has proved contentious and difficult to study throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from a massive online survey in the United States indicates an increased risk of COVID-19-related outcomes among respondents living with a child attending school in-person. School-based mitigation measures are associated with significant reduc...
Preprint
Background Children are important in community-level influenza transmission. School-based monitoring may inform influenza surveillance. Methods We used reported weekly confirmed influenza in Allegheny County during the 2007, and 2010-2015 influenza seasons using Pennsylvania’s Allegheny County Health Department all-age influenza cases from health f...
Preprint
Full-text available
Since SARS-CoV-2 emerged, a 14-day quarantine has been recommended based on COVID-19's incubation period. Using an RT-PCR or rapid antigen test to "test out" of quarantine is a frequently proposed strategy to shorten duration without increasing risk. We calculated the probability that infected individuals test negative for SARS-CoV-2 on a particula...
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Full-text available
Comparisons of the utility and accuracy of methods for measuring social interactions relevant to disease transmission are rare. To increase the evidence base supporting specific methods to measure social interaction, we compared data from self-reported contact surveys and wearable proximity sensors from a cohort of schoolchildren in the Pittsburgh...
Article
This primer describes the statistical uncertainty in mechanistic models and provides R code to quantify it. We begin with an overview of mechanistic models for infectious disease, and then describe the sources of statistical uncertainty in the context of a case study on SARS-CoV-2. We describe the statistical uncertainty as belonging to three categ...
Preprint
This primer describes the statistical uncertainty in mechanistic models and provides R code to quantify it. We begin with an overview of mechanistic models for infectious disease, and then describe the sources of statistical uncertainty in the context of a case study on SARS-CoV-2. We describe the statistical uncertainty as belonging to three categ...
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Full-text available
Background Stocks of yellow fever vaccine are insufficient to cover exceptional demands for outbreak response. Fractional dosing has shown efficacy, but evidence is limited to the 17DD substrain vaccine. We assessed the immunogenicity and safety of one-fifth fractional dose compared with standard dose of four WHO-prequalified yellow fever vaccines...
Article
Full-text available
The current COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the unprecedented development and integration of infectious disease dynamic transmission models into policy making and public health practice. Models offer a systematic way to investigate transmission dynamics and produce short-term and long-term predictions that explicitly integrate assumptions about b...
Preprint
Full-text available
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number ( R eff ) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventio...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Test-trace-isolate programs are an essential part of COVID-19 control that offer a more targeted approach than many other non-pharmaceutical interventions. Effective use of such programs requires methods to estimate their current and anticipated impact. Methods and Findings: We present a mathematical modeling framework to evaluate the e...
Article
Full-text available
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has heightened discussion of the use of mobile phone data in outbreak response. Mobile phone data have been proposed to monitor effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, to assess potential drivers of spatiotemporal spread, and to support contact tracing efforts. While these data may...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Yellow fever vaccine stocks have been insufficient to cover exceptional demands for outbreak response. Fractional dosing evidence is limited to the 17DD substrain vaccine. We assessed the immunogenicity and safety of one-fifth fractional dose compared to standard dose of each of the four WHO-prequalified yellow fever vaccines produced fr...
Preprint
Full-text available
Comparisons of the utility and accuracy of methods for measuring social interactions relevant to disease transmission are rare. To increase the evidence base supporting specific methods to measure social interaction, we compared data from self-reported contact surveys and wearable proximity sensors from a cohort of schoolchildren in the Pittsburgh...
Preprint
Full-text available
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care and mechanical ventilation. During these uncertain times, public health decision makers, from city health departments to federal agencies, sought the use of epidemiological models fo...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Information on the etiology and age-specific burden of respiratory viral infections among school-aged children remains limited. Methods: We conducted a cohort study to determine the etiology of ILI (influenza like illness) among 2,519 K-12 students during the 2012-13 influenza season. We obtained nasal swabs from students with ILI-relat...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Information on the etiology and age-specific burden of respiratory viral infections among school-aged children remains limited. Methods We conducted a cohort study to determine the etiology of ILI (influenza like illness) among 2,519 K–12 students during the 2012–13 influenza season. We obtained nasal swabs from students with ILI-related...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Information on the etiology and age-specific burden of respiratory viral infections among school-aged children remains limited. Though school aged children are often recognized as driving the transmission of influenza as well as other respiratory viruses, little detailed information is available on the distribution of respiratory infect...
Article
Background: A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in China in December 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period for clinical disease (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), which has important implications for surveill...
Preprint
Full-text available
A novel human coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified in China in December, 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period, which has important implications for surveillance and control activities. Here, we use data from public reports of 101 confirmed cases in 38 provinces, regions, and co...
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Full-text available
This study is an extended follow-up of a randomized clinical trial of routine amoxicillin use for infants experiencing uncomplicated severe acute malnutrition in Niger.
Poster
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Puerto Rico has experienced constant dengue outbreaks since the 1960s, making it a prominent hub for dengue circulation in the Americas. Control efforts to reduce mosquito populations or exposure to mosquitoes are resource intensive, and difficult to deliver to all locations at once. An improved understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of d...
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Background: Alongside the clinical aspects of the immunogenicity and safety trial of an Ebola vaccine deployed among front-line workers, a qualitative study was conducted to describe motivations behind individuals' decisions to participate - or not to participate - in the study. Methods: In July and August 2015, focus group discussions and semi-...
Article
Human movement contributes to the probability that pathogens will be introduced to new geographic locations. Here we investigate the impact of human movement on the spatial spread of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Southern Thailand during a recent re-emergence. We hypothesised that human movement, population density, the presence of habitat conducive...
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Full-text available
Background: As leprosy elimination becomes an increasingly realistic goal, it is essential to determine the factors that contribute to its persistence. We evaluate social and economic factors as predictors of leprosy annual new case detection rates within India, where the majority of leprosy cases occur. Methods: We used correlation and linear m...
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Full-text available
Objective To determine if all-cause and cause-specific school absencesimprove predictions of virologically confirmed influenza in thecommunity.IntroductionSchool-based influenza surveillance has been considered forreal-time monitoring of influenza, as children 5-17 years old play animportant role in community-level transmission.Methods The Alleghen...
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Full-text available
Significance The pervasiveness of influenza among humans and its rapid spread during pandemics create a false sense that all humans are affected equally. In this work, we show that neighborhood-level social determinants were associated with greater burdens of pandemic influenza in 1918 and several other diseases in a major US city. We show that lit...
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Full-text available
Global spread of Zika virus Zika virus was identified in Uganda in 1947; since then, it has enveloped the tropics, causing disease of varying severity. Lessler et al. review the historical literature to remind us that Zika's neurotropism was observed in mice even before clinical case reports in Nigeria in 1953. What determines the clinical manifest...

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