Kristian Orsini

• Ph.D.
• Economic and Financial Affairs at European Union delegation to the United States

The Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis plunged the Euro area into a double-dip recession cementing the narrative of a struggling Economic and Monetary Union. However, if we look at a longer time horizon that narrative is not fully justified: since its creation, with the exception of the 2011-2014 period, Euro area's per-...

Despite a generally benevolent view on the positive economic impact of tourism, some economists have long argued that a bloated tourism sector may crowd out other industries. The phenomenon is reminiscent of the Dutch Disease and is therefore sometimes dubbed the Beach Disease. The debate around it has often neglected the fact that while the impact...

In the years before the global financial crisis, Croatia's imports grew rapidly in comparison to its exports. The bursting of the financial bubble initiated a sharp adjustment process: first imports compressed and subsequently exports expanded. Croatia now has a comfortable current account surplus but the economy needs to generate persistent surplu...

The contraction of imports in Spain A temporary phenomenon? Volume 12, issue 2, March 2015 Spain’s imports of goods and services fell by almost 17 % between 2008 and 2013, led by non-energy imports which fell by nearly 20 %. As a result, Spain’s current account balance swung from a deficit of 10 % to a surplus of 1.1 % in just six years. Part of t...

Our analysis of microeconomic data between 2008 and 2013 suggests that the wage adjustment process in Spain, which began in earnest only in 2010, has been slow and inefficient and has hit temporary workers disproportionately hard. Whereas total employment fell by more than 16%, real aggregate wages in Spain fell by about 4.5% over the period 2008-2...

This Country Focus discusses the effects of the reform of the severance payment regime on job-to-job mobility in Spain. Job-to-job mobility is important in the process of allocation of resources towards more productive sectors and companies. Prior to the reform in 2012, Spanish employees hired under open-ended contracts enjoyed a particularly gener...

We suggest the first large-scale international comparison of labor supply elasticities for 17 European countries and the United States using a harmonized empirical approach. We find that own-wage elasticities are relatively small and more uniform across countries than previously considered. Nonetheless, such differences do exist, and are found not...

We suggest the first large-scale international comparison of labor supply elasticities for 17 European countries and the United States using a harmonized empirical approach. We find that own-wage elasticities are relatively small and more uniform across countries than previously considered. Nonetheless, such differences do exist, and are found not...

We suggest the first large-scale international comparison of labor supply elasticities for 17 European countries and the US, separately by gender and marital status. Measurement differences are netted out by using a harmonized empirical approach and comparable data sources. We find that own-wage elasticities are relatively small and much more unifo...

In this article, we propose a structural model of the retirement decision for older workers in Belgium. We model the exit paths available through the various available schemes. Our framework allows exploiting all information on possible exit paths and also better identifying preferences and constraints. Results based upon Belgian microsimulation da...

Despite numerous studies on labor supply, the size of elasticities is rarely comparable across countries. In this paper, we suggest the first large-scale international comparison of elasticities, while netting out possible differences due to methods, data selection and the period of investigation. We rely on comparable data for 17 European countrie...

In recent decades, many “Making Work Pay” policies have been implemented in OECD countries. These policies aim at improving the financial incentives for work, while maintaining high levels of social protection. Examples include the Earned Income Tax Credit in the USA and the Working Families’ Tax Credit in the UK. While these policies are proven to...

This paper empirically analyzes the labor supply effects of two “making work pay” reforms in Germany. We provide evidence in favor of policies that distinguish between low effort and low productivity by targeting individuals with low wages rather than those with low earnings. We discuss our results more generally and with comparisons to the family-...

This paper provides evidences ,on the ,effects of unobserved ,individual heterogeneity on estimated,gender ,pay ,differentials. Using the European ,Community ,Household ,Panel (ECHP), we present a cross-country comparison ofthe evolution of unadjusted and adjusted gender pay gaps using both cross-section and panel data estimation techniques. The an...

This paper proposes an analysis of early retirement for private sector workers in Belgium. On the contrary of early studies in this field (Pestieau and Stijns [1999] and Dellis et al. [2004]), our study is based on a structural model of labour supply. This has the advantage of allowing us to test potential policy reforms aiming at increasing the pa...

Early retirement of wage-earners in Belgium This paper proposes an analysis of early retirement for private sector workers in Belgium. On the contrary of early studies in this field (Pestieau and Stijns [1999] and Dellis et al. [2004]), our study is based on a structural model of labour supply. This has the advantage of allowing us to test potentia...

The adverse distributional effects of a flat tax are well known and have been documented by empirical research in several countries, including Belgium. Advocates of the flat tax argue, correctly, that many of these studies do not take into account agentsí behavioural reactions and possible feed back effects. One of the important effects in this co...

The adverse distributional effects of a flat tax are well known and have been documented by empirical research in several countries, including Belgium. Advocates of the flat tax argue, correctly, that these studies do not take into account agents’ behavioural reactions and possible feed back effects. One of the important effects in this context is...

Belgium is characterised by a comparatively high tax wedge. Starting from the end of the 90’s there has been a growing concern over the effect of high labour costs on the employment of low skilled workers. One of the most innovative measures implemented by the federal government is the targeted reduction on social security contributions for low ski...

We analyse the distributional impact of lowering social security contributions and compensating the revenue loss by an increase in indirect taxes. We empirically assess the distributional consequences of this shift by using two Belgian microsimulation models: MODÉTÉ for the tax benefit system, and aster for the indirect tax part. Since the underlyi...

The adverse distributional effects of a flat tax are well-known enough and are also revealed in empirical research on Belgian data. However, advocates of the flat tax argue, correctly, that most of these studies do not take into account cost recovery. One of the important effects in that context is the possible increase in labour supply and the res...

In this paper we use a sample of administrative data coming from the `Dataware-house labour market and social protection' and the microsimulation model MIMOSIS to assess the labour supply effects of a reform of the rules for cumulating labour income with survival pension as proposed in the Generations Pact. In a first step we estimate a standard di...

This paper takes a close look at the advantages and disadvantages of the flat tax and looks at its proven benefits and failings in some European countries which adopted it and its theoretical or possible effects on the economies of other European countrie

Individual strategic weight plays an important role in the intra-household allocation of resources; however, empirical studies invariably find such weight difficult to define in a plausible and computable way, given the available data. This paper proposes a framework for the calculation of household members' strategic weight that can be easily comp...

The international financial crisis manifests itself in Ireland not only as a crisis of the banking system, but also as a major fiscal crisis, aggravated by years of soft revenue policy and a housing bubble that has burst spectacularly. The severe drop in economic output results in a crisis of employment and a definitive end to the ‘Celtic Tiger’ er...

This paper quantifies the economic well-being of different age groups and the extent of their reliance on incomes from public and private sources. The aim is to establish how social benefits, and the taxes needed to finance them, affect income levels and disparities across different age groups. Results are compared across nine OECD countries using...

During the last decade, several EU countries have tried to tackle unemployment and low activity rates through extensive tax cuts. In an effort to encourage the taking up of work – especially amongst the less productive workers – policymakers have shown increasing interest in targeted tax and social security contribution rebates as well as in benefi...

Social assistance and inactivity traps have long been considered amongst the main causes of the poor employment performance of EU countries. The success of New Labour has triggered a growing interest in instruments capable of combining the promotion of responsibility and self-sufficiency with solidarity with less skilled workers. Making-work-pay (M...

We assess the labour supply effects of two ‘making work pay' reforms in Germany. We provide evidence in favour of policies that distinguish between low effort and low productivity by targeting individuals with low wages rather than individuals with low earnings. In assessing the policies we account for demand-side constraints by using a double-hurd...

A large number of studies have documented a generalized tendency towards a reduction in the gross gender pay gap in the European countries during the 1970s. The following decades have nevertheless produced a more scattered pattern: while some countries have continued to witness a reduction in the gender wage inequalities, others have shown a statio...

This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...

The Belgian “Generations Pact” contained a measure which aims at removing an inactivity trap for people who benefit from a survivor pension. In this paper we use a sample of administrative data from the “Datawarehouse labour market and social protection” and the microsimulation model MIMOSIS to assess the labour supply effects of this reform propos...

This paper examines the tax schedule for low income families with children. We take an optimal tax approach based on a structural labour supply model which incorporates unobserved heterogeneity, fixed costs of work, childcare costs and the detailed non-convexities of the tax and transfer system. The motivation is the British earned income tax credi...

Equal intra-household sharing is still assumed by the vaste majority of applied analyses in welfare economics. Few pieces of work have tried to depart from the equal sharing hypothesis, but their impact has been limited by lack of data or restricted application to special cases. This pa- per proposes a new framework to derive sharing rules based on...

During the last decade, improved macroeconomic and budgetary conditions have allowed for fiscal reforms in several EU countries. The main aim behind personal income tax reforms across Europe has been to reduce the tax burden on labour and to encourage work - especially for less productive workers. In this context, Anglo Saxon countries and more rec...

We examine the physical and mental health effects of providing care to an elderly mother on the adult child caregiver. We address the endogeneity of the selection in and out of caregiving using an instrumental variable approach, and carefully control for baseline health and work status of the adult child using fixed effects and Arellano-Bond estima...

Models of household economics require an understanding of economic interactions in families. Social ties, repetition and reduced strategic uncertainty make social dilemmas in couples a very special case that needs to be empirically studied. In this paper we present results from a large economic experiment with 100 maritally living couples. Particip...

During last decade, improved macroeconomic and budgetary conditions have allowed for fiscal reforms in several EU countries. The main aim behind personal income tax reforms across Europe has been to reduce the tax burden on labour and to encourage work – especially for less productive workers. In this context, Anglo Saxon countries and more recentl...

Earning an income is probably the best way to avoid poverty and social exclusion, hence the recent trend of promoting employment through in-work transfers in OECD countries. Yet, the relative consensus on the need for ëmaking work payí policies is muddied by a number of concerns relative to the design of the reforms and the treatment of the famil...

During the last decade several Flemish political parties have required the devolution of health insurance. This article analyses the points of view expressed by several actors (health insurance managers, doctors and hospital managers) interviewed by the Flemish Parliamentary Commission for Institutional Reforms (1996-1998). The main conclusion is t...

Marcella Corsi and Kristian Orsini analyse poverty levels in six European countries: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. They focus on child poverty, taking into account differences in demographic structure, actual redistribution policies towards younger households and family services aimed at increasing female l...

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Using data from the mid-1990s from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), we analyze for several household types the effect of mothers' work participation on families' relative income position and poverty risk. Results are compared across seven European countries with contrasting family policies: the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Sweden,...

In this paper we use a sample of administrative data coming from the 'Dataware- house labour market and social protection' and the microsimulation model MIMOSIS to assess the labour supply efiects of a reform of the rules for cumulating labour income with survival pension as proposed in the Generations Pact. In a flrst step we estimate a standard d...

We analyze the distributional impact of lowering social security contributions and compensating the revenue loss by an increase in indirect taxes. We empirically assess the distributional consequences of this shift by using two Belgian microsimulation models: modété for the tax benefi ts ystem, andaster for the indirect tax part. Since the underlyi...

How labor supply responsiveness di¤ers across countries may explain, or be the consequence of di¤erent labor market institutions and tax-bene…t policy regimes. We suggest the …rst large-scale international comparison of elasticities between coun-tries, relying on data for 17 EU countries and the US and a common empirical approach based on a discret...