## About

97

Publications

1,319

Reads

**How we measure 'reads'**

A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more

49

Citations

## Publications

Publications (97)

Как показала пандемия COVID-19, противоэпидемические мероприятия становятся тяжелым бременем для экономики, так как затрагивают целый комплекс экологических, экономических и социальных процессов, влияющих на благосостояние общества, экономическую активность и продовольственную безопасность. Борьба с пандемией становится невозможной без исследования...

The work is devoted to the problem of creating new methods for complex modeling and risk management, which will allow the study of synergistic interactions between sources of risks of various origins under conditions of uncertainty. The paper proposes an approach to the study of the relationship between food, water and energy resources using the th...

Проект присвячений рішенню актуальної задачі оцінки епідеміологічної безпеки. Буде створено математичні моделі та методи керування епідемічним процесом для мінімізації негативних медико-біологічних та економічних наслідків епідемій, та визначення ефективних стратегій їх подолання. Результати моделювання дозволять розраховувати динаміку епідемії в у...

The project is devoted to solving the actual problem of assessing epidemiological safety. In order to minimize the negative medical, biological, and economic impacts of epidemics as well as to determine effective strategies for overcoming them, mathematical models and methods of managing an epidemic process will be created. The simulation results w...

Food, Energy, Water (FEW) Nexus for Sustainable Development Goals and Global Intergated Management

The Covid-19 pandemic poses serious challenges to the world community, requiring adequate methods and means to control it. On the one hand, in the absence of immunity, vaccines and coronavirus drugs in the population, due to the severe consequences of the disease, the epidemic poses a very significant threat to human life and health. On the other h...

The single cluster consisting of production leaders of Kyivshchyna is determined on the 2017–2018 data. The cluster covers more than a half of region districts. The region districts do not need raw data generation. The estimates of parameters for Cobb–Douglas production functions are found upon computational data generation. The attainable export o...

The mathematical problems of complex systems
investigation under uncertainties;
The main objective of this scientific research is to promote new approaches for sustainable management of the environment through developing new technologies of vulnerability and risk assessment and management for the complex environmental systems for which standard...

Глобальні зміни перетворюються у вагомий виклик для глобального суспільства. Підвищення кількості екстремальних погодних явищ, підвищена потужність природних катастроф, зростання техногенних надзвичайних ситуацій є головними наслідками кліматичних змін. Вони провокують основні загрози для стабільного розвитку: 1) продовольчу кризу (кліматичні зміни...

Розроблено математичні моделі для оцінки ефективності системи природокористування за умов змін клімату та підвищенноє невізначеності Для розрахунку ризиків використовуються методи теорії катастроф. Здійснено оцінку ризиків природокористування на регіональному рівні.

W.Wójcik J.Sikora (edit.), Recent Advances in Information Technology;
Chapter 6; K Atoyev, P Knopov, V Pepeliaev, P Kisała, R Romaniuk, M Kalimoldayev, The mathematical problems of complex systems investigation under uncertainties
(Contents and Abstract);
The mathematical problems of complex systems investigation under uncertainties; The main ob...

The states of Eastern Europe (Ukraine and all the adjacent European states Belarus, Hungary, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Slovakia) have experienced technology and system change in land use since the 1990s. Their total land area exceeds the land area of Mexico
or Indonesia, their total gross domestic product (in current US dollars) is between those pr...

Interdependencies of various risks increase the difficulty of identifying the principal cause of injurious effects and make a system already weakened by stress more susceptible to the effects of additional stressors. In the case of cumulative stressors, a system’s
vulnerability possibilities increases nonlinearly. These nonlinearities lead to an in...

The integral assessment of investment attractiveness of agrarian regions of Ukraine was carried out. The most investment attractive are Kyiv, Cherkasy and Khmelnitsky regions in the terms of their comparative ecological, technogenic, social, and economic threats, yield and its sustainability. A conceptual model for evaluating the level of food secu...

Mathematical models have been created to study the relationship between food, energy and water resources, which allow: 1) to calculate the optimal controls that minimize vulnerability; 2) to study the mechanisms of chaotic regimes that cause instability of complex systems; 3) assess the probability of emergencies of ecological and economic origin....

The conditions for deterministic chaos arising in minimal model of economic development and possible causes of increasing vulnerability of global economics to small changes of control parameters are determined. The role of deterministic chaos in deformation of safety space is examined

The mathematical models of sustainable social, economic and environmental development are elaborated. Models allow estimation probability of various emergencies, solving integrated problems of risk management under increased uncertainty caused by global changes.

The information system for complex environmental-technogenic and social-economic risks assessment in the field of housing and communal services is elaborated. It allows: to estimate the deformation of space security under increased uncertainty; to investigate the dynamics of complex risks of disasters as a function of environmental, technogenic, ec...

The information system for complex environmental-technogenic and social-economic risk assesmentin the fiel of housing and communal service (HCS) is laborated. It allows: 1) to investigate the dynamics of complex risks of disaster as the function of the environmental, technogenic, social and economic variables; 2) to analyse the current situation fo...

The mathematical approach for estimation of vulnerability and deformation of safety was elaborated. The impact of physical, human and social capitals and global changes on sustainable development of society was formalized. Its distinctive feature is the possibility to investigate regimes with sudden discontinuous changes or phase transitions as a r...

The crisis phenomena in the world economy in the conditions of globalization, when the modes of functioning with abrupt changes are sharply spread, are analyzed. A nonlinear dynamic model for the study of the transformation of the security space depending on the characteristics of sustainable development of society, the level of globalization, soci...

The main objectives of this article is to strenghten the capacity in study of uncertainty impact on security of complex systems for which the standart modelling methods are inadequate. The regimts with sudden, discontinous changes that cause the instability have been modelling for a wide range of different complex systems from economy and ecology t...

The mathematical model is proposed for investigation of various fluctuations
impact on transformation of fields of technogenic, social, economic and environmental
risks with the help of catastrophes theory, theory of chaos and bifurcation. It permits to
investigate the catastrophes nonlinear dynamics and to estimate the levels of technogenic and en...

On the basis of formalization of interrelations between global and hydrological changes the mathematical model for optimal
water resource management was elaborated. Its distinctive feature is the possibility to investigate regimes with sudden, discontinuous
changes or phase transitions as a result of small, continuous changes in variables that infl...

The main goal of this work is to strengthen the capacity in such fields as impact of uncertainty and unpredictability caused by global change (GC) on transformation of security and sustainability for which standard modeling methods and tools are inadequate. Advanced modeling method and tool for system risk analysis has been elaborated. It is based...

The task of energetic balance normalization and sistemic risks minimization for cell has been investigated. The conditions of metastable chaos arising 0in cellular energetic system are determinedare inves

A research technology in area of human virtual physiology that includes several aspects of interaction between functional modules of organism is proposed. The technology is based on following quantitative mathematical models: biochemical transformation of energy un cell; cellular mechanisms of reactive adaptation; integration of output function of...

The mathematical model is proposed for estimation of the environmental, technogenic, economic and social components of system risks. It permits to investigate the catastrophes nonlinear dynamics, integral estimation of technogenic vulnerability, efficacy of policy in the field environmental and technogenic security as well as impact of fluctuations...

The mathematical model is proposed for Invesigation of various fluctuation impact on transformation of field of technogenic, social, economic and environmental risks with the help of catstrophes theory, theory of chaos and bifurcation. It permits to investigate the catastrophes nonlinear dynamics and to estimate the levels of technogenic, social, e...

Advanced modeling method for health risk assessment has been elaborated. It is based on catastrophes, bifurcation, and chaos theories. The human organism has been examined as a developing system with dissipative structure, near an unstable steady state far from equilibrium in bifurcation zone, where any fluctuation leads to an unpredictable feature...

The East Mediterranean is one of the bifurcation Zone of World Stability. The location near the arc of geopolitical conflicts
is the main basis for challenges to safety in this region. Environmental terrorism provoked by these conflicts is the main
threat as the intensity of tanker traffic and the infrastructure of oil and gas pipelines in this reg...

The article presents an approach to the development of information technology for management of epidemics and risk ranking to increase the efficacy of struggle with HIV/AIDS in Ukraine, minimize incidence rate, maximize the quality of health care, and augment the reliability of a long-term forecasting of epidemiological situation in Ukraine and its...

The analysis of main difficulties of the struggle with terrorism
allows emphasize the problems caused by main tendencies of the
21st century: economical globalization, social disruptions, corruption, mental disadaptation, and cultural clash of civilizations. Pooling
of advanced biotechnology, enormous finances and authoritarian
personalities gives...

The systematic issues of building a computer information system for monitoring infectious diseases in Ukraine are considered. Criteria that take into account the efficiency of work and the minimization of financial costs for the design and implementation of the system were taken as the initial criteria.

A mathematical method for assessing the threat of bioterrorism is proposed. Risk assessment is carried out using the theory of smooth functions, which makes it possible to determine the critical values of the parameters describing the tension levels of the control system and its reserve capabilities. The risk is assessed by the degree of approximat...

A concept is presented of a development of the epidemiological service in Ukraine. It is based on modern informative computer technologies of epidemic risk management and epidemic situation assessment. On the basis of mathematical modelling and theory of optimal control a new approach has been worked out for epidemic risk estimation and forecasting...

A mathematical method for assessing the threat of bioterrorism is proposed. Risk assessment is carried out using the theory of smooth functions, which makes it possible to determine the critical values of the parameters describing the tension levels of the control system and its reserve capabilities. The risk is assessed by the degree of approximat...

A new approach to the assessment and management of epidemiological risks is presented. Risk assessment is carried out using the theory of smooth functions, which makes it possible to determine the values of critical parameters that describe the stress levels of the control system and reserve capabilities. The risk is assessed by the degree of appro...

In this work the new approach to epidemiological risk assessment and management is presented. In this approach the risk estimation is carried out using the theory of smooth functions allowing the determination of critical parameter values which describe the levels of control system intensities and reserve possibilities. The risk is estimated on a d...

A new method for assessing the stability of human health and analyzing the risk of its pathological changes is proposed. It is based on specific mathematical models implemented on a computer that describe the fundamental mechanisms of biochemical and structural cellular and subcellular adaptation.

Risk assessment in the Ukraine has undergone an essential evolution from the concept of “zero risk” to the concept of acceptable minimum risks and to the concept of sequential approximation of absolute safety. However the approaches utilized in risk assessment do not take into account the unique characteristics of catastrophes such as Chernobyl. Su...

The effective methods of risk analysis of social shocks in a society is developed. The computer technology is created for safety control and working out of the strategy og optimal administrative decision making, cost-benefit analysis at realization of measures on liquidation of extrim situation consequences.

Mathematical models have been developed that reproduce the main regularities of the regulation of calcium metabolism by the hormonal system and the system of cyclic nucleotides in normal conditions and under the influence of radiation, as well as the effect of radioprotectors and antioxidants on the normalization of calcium metabolism.

A new class of training programs has been developed aimed at forming a systematic approach to assessing environmental and economic risks. This is achieved by combining traditional courses in economics, ecology, risk analysis with dynamic models of ecological-economic systems of thinking

The medical computer system (MCS) for health risk estimation and management is elaborated. The computer method of pathology occurrence risk assessment in organism is developed on the base of theory of catastrophes and optimal control. MCS allows on the data of clinical inspections to receive quantitative accounts of rangiing risks of pathological c...

The organism functional state (OFS) of Liqvidators of Chernobyl accident was estimates with the help of elaborated mathematical methods and models. The parameters were used which characterize a a general state of organism and also states of of energetic, immune, endocrine and other systems.

The computer technology (CT) has been created to analyze dynamics of cost-benefit and work out optimal policy minimizing risk of social shocks. It is based on mathematical methods of data analysis, theory of optimization, theory of catastrophes. The main goal function is formulated as follows: to determine dynamics of economic, financial, social an...

The mathematical model for risk assessment of ecological and technogenic accidents was developed. Distinctive feature of the proposed approach is valuation a risk of tcological accidents as with the help of vector of ecological system (ES) states. Components of the vector are variables of three types, describing levels of: a) recreation opportuniti...

On the base of mathematicak models the computer technology of an organism functioning regimes correction has been developed. The tasks of calculation of individualized dose thresholds from which the probability of irreversible changes in organism sharply increased; determining the degree of protective functions reduction in organism under influence...

The purpose of this work is to create software for researching the mechanisms of neuro-immune-endocrine regulation (NIER) .The developed software creates fundamentally new opportunities for individualized complex therapy, since it allows the doctor to study in more detail the effect of various therapeutic drugs on individual links of the NIER syste...

A mathematical model and software have been developed to study the impact on human health of environmental pollution along the chain "source - environment - food product - critical organ - protective immunological function of the body - immune status of the body" The model was investigated by analytical and numerical methods. An automated system fo...

A mathematical approach is proposed for studying the following tasks: a) increasing the reliability of assessing the stability of the social situation in society; b) evaluating the effectiveness of various methods of normalizing the social situation; c) determining the trajectories of changes in parameters describing economic, financial, political...

A concept for the development of aerospace medicine is proposed, aimed at creating computer technologies for assessing the physiological adaptation of pilots to flight conditions. The concept provides for: 1) creation of a bank of mathematical models describing the effect of radiation, weightlessness and overloads on the regulatory mechanisms of va...

A methodology has been developed for evaluating the effectiveness of measures to eliminate the consequences of environmental pollution, determining the optimal cost / benefit ratio, based on the use of mathematical modeling. It allows you to combine into a single technology analysis of control decisions related to minimizing the risk of environment...

A mathematical model has been developed to assess the risk of pathological changes in the endocrine system under the influence of radiation. Analysis of the simulation results made it possible to create a classification of the vulnerability of some links of the thyroid system regulation to the effects of various doses of radiation.

A method for handling ill-conditioned data has been developed. The database containing clinical and immunological indicators of preleucises and hematological malignancies is considered as an example of ill-conditioned data. The following algorithm was proposed: 1) Division of data into two divisions: a) without ill-conditioned data, b) with ill-con...

Mathematical models were created to study the effects of low doses of radiation on the astronaut's body. Software has been developed that allows: 1) to study the formation of pathological changes in the thyroid and immune systems under the action of radiation; 2) to study the relationship of different mechanisms of regulation of these systems; 3) t...

The changes in dynamic of clinical and immonological indices of preleucoses and hemoblastosies one decade after Chernobyl accident was carry out. The investigation, that were elaborated in hematological clinic of ICINCRM, had demonstrated the complex of distinct clinical, morphological and functional changes in hemopoesys system for above mentioned...

The possibility of a global ecological disaster has now become a reality: it is one of the few ideas that markedly distinguish the consciousness of modern man from that of past generations. Certain dynamic invariants characterizing the relationship of man and nature have been established during the last two millennia. Yet the second half of the 20t...

A mathematical model of the humoral link of the immune response has been developed and numerically studied. Using numerical methods of control theory, the problem of correcting the immune status of an organism has been considered. An automated system for assessing the reserve capabilities of the B-link of the immune system, including a mathematical...

A mathematical model has been developed that describes the processes of synthesis and consumption of energy in the cell and their regulation by cyclic nucleotides, calcium ions, products of the metabolism of arachidonic acid, c-AMP-dependent protein kinase. The problem of optimal control of the balance of synthesis processes and energy consumption...

An automated technology has been developed to assess the risk of pathological changes at different levels of the organization of biosystems, with the help of which: a) the development of individualized therapy for certain diseases caused by disturbances in energy exchange is carried out; b) the efficiency of disease prediction increases; c) the gro...

The composition and structure of an information database have been developed to determine the tension of regulatory mechanisms and reserve capabilities of the ecosystem, with the help of which the risk of environmental disasters is assessed. A conceptual model for managing the risk of man-made disasters is proposed.

Mathematical software has been developed for the automated selection of a food ration, which, at a given level of consumption of contaminated foods, maximizes the immune status and minimizes metabolic immunosuppression.

An automated technology has been developed to assess the degree of balance of individual systems for regulating the recreational capabilities of an ecosystem in order to assess the risk of irreversible changes at different levels of ecosystem organization, predict their consequences and manage safety.

The study of the dynamics of the population of leukemic cells was carried out and the reserve of protective functions of the organism was estimated. The relationship between the number of blast cells, the duration of clinical and hematological remission and the age of patients was determined.

Using a mathematical model, the regulatory mechanisms linking the energy and immune systems of the body are investigated, as well as their role in those changes that may be called the causes of aging.

Hierarchic MODFR models are constructed including the parameters of subcellular, cellular and tissue levels. A number of questions are discussed which until recently have
been outside the scope of "mathematical immunology". In particular, the mechanisms considered involved in immune response regulation by metabolic factors ( Ca++ , cyclic nucleotid...

Mathematical models of the mechanisms that control the synchronization of various lymphocyte populations have been developed. Formalization of the organism's immune status has permitted made it possible distingwihing a group of parameters that can be used to assess the balance of sepated links of the immune system and effectively influence them.

A comparative assessment of the effectiveness of the main thymic immunocorrectors in immunodeficiency states was carried out. The effect of thymic drugs on the main links of the metabolism of immune-competent cells has been studied experimentally and using a mathematical model.

We have constructed hierarchical models of the immune system that include parameters of various levels of biosystem organization — subcellular, cellular, and tissue level. The models allow for various mechanisms of regulation, by interleukin-2, BAS, and Ca2+ ions, of processes responsible for activating the synthesis of various lymphocyte populatio...

A mathematical model of the relationship between the processes of synthesis and energy consumption in the cells of the immune tissue has been developed. The model makes it possible to study the mechanisms of preventing energy deficiency in physiological defense reactions, to evaluate the effectiveness of existing principles of therapy, hypotheses a...

Mathematical models have been developed, the relationship between energy metabolism of the myocardium and electromechanical coupling. The study of models using the theory of catastrophes, the theory of bifurcations and other methods of the qualitative theory of differential equations is carried out. The models were used to study some regulatory mec...