Kjartan Kloster Osmundsen

University of Stavanger (UiS) · Department of Mathematics and Natural Science

The Basel Committee's minimum capital requirement function for banks’ credit risk is based on value at risk. This paper performs a statistical analysis that examines the consequences of instead basing it on expected shortfall, a switch that has already been set in motion for market risk regulation. The ability to capture tail risk as well as divers...

We propose an importance sampling (IS)-based transport map Hamiltonian Monte Carlo procedure for performing full Bayesian analysis in general nonlinear high-dimensional hierarchical models. Using IS techniques to construct a transport map, the proposed method transforms the typically highly challenging target distribution of a hierarchical model in...

This article proposes a method to estimate Markov-switching vector autoregressive models that combines (integrated over latent states) marginal likelihood and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. The method is compared to commonly used implementations of Gibbs sampling. The proposed method is found to be numerically robust, flexible with respect to model speci...

https://github.com/kjartako/MS_VAR

We propose a state-space model (SSM) for commodity prices that combines the competitive storage model with a stochastic trend. This approach fits into the economic rationality of storage decisions, and adds to previous deterministic trend specifications of the storage model. Parameters are estimated using a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo procedu...

We propose a State-Space Model (SSM) for commodity prices that combines the competitive storage model with a stochastic trend. This approach fits into the economic rationality of storage decisions and adds to previous deterministic trend specifications of the storage model. For a Bayesian posterior analysis of the SSM, which is nonlinear in the lat...

We propose an importance sampling (IS)-based transport map Hamiltonian Monte Carlo procedure for performing a Bayesian analysis in nonlinear high-dimensional hierarchical models. Using IS techniques to construct a transport map, the proposed method transforms the typically highly complex posterior distribution of a hierarchical model such that it c...