
Kingsley E. HaynesGeorge Mason University | GMU · Center for Regional Analysis
Kingsley E. Haynes
PhD in Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University
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244
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August 1970 - July 1978
Publications
Publications (244)
This paper presents a comparison of the Covid-19 infections between select pairs of border counties in neighboring states. These adjacent border county groups (regions) are where the policies of the Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) such as Lockdown/Stay-at-Home differ. These analyses represent a form of a natural experiment and using a Differ...
During the pre-vaccine period, the success of containing the spread of COVID-19 depends upon how communities respond to non-pharmaceutical mitigation policies such as social distancing, wearing of masks, retail and dining constraints, crowd limitation, and shelter-in-place orders. Of these policies, shelter-in-place and social distancing are of cen...
Roger Stough contributed significantly to regional science development, with a prolific scientific productions, with a long stint as editor of The Annals of Regional Science, with his leadership as President of the Regional Science Association International, and displaying an undying dedication to serve, generous with his time, mentoring countless...
This paper examines the role of regional poverty on the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. It also explores how the effects differ with the concentration of ethnic minorities. We find that poverty is a significant and consistent determinant of higher COVID-19 infections and fatalities. Prevalent poverty areas experienced higher infections due to economi...
This paper compares COVID-19 infections between selected pairs of neighboring states where the policies of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) such as lockdown/stay-at-home differ. This analysis uses a difference-in-differences (Diff-in-Diff) model to test the effectiveness of NPI in mitigating COVID-19 infections at the state level. The sta...
The world tried to control the spread of COVID‐19 at national and regional levels through various mitigation strategies. In the first wave of infections the most extreme strategies included large scale national and regional lockdowns or stay‐at‐home orders. One major side‐effect of large scale lockdowns was the shuttering of the economy, leading to...
This paper examines several concepts and applications that influence city and urban development. The purpose is to explore the limits to city and urban growth. These urban expansions are reflected in the growth of Charleston SC and Portland OR through their changes in night light expression. These concepts include carrying capacity, growth or cordo...
China has launched an ambitious strategy to develop a national high-speed rail (HSR) system with a total distance of 38,000 km by 2025. The massive development of HSR has not only facilitated the improvement of interregional accessibility, it also substantially stimulated urbanization and urban expansions across various cities. This paper investiga...
This article presents the spatial patterns of general and high-tech start-up rates and explores regional factors associated with entrepreneurship in U.S. micropolitan areas. Regression results show that general entrepreneurship in these small cities is predicted by population growth, the middle-age population group, the presence of small businesses...
This chapter examines how and to what extent there are variations in sub-regional patterns of socio-spatial interaction using a novel methodology. The methodology uses bipartite network modeling combined with spatial statistical and geographically weighted regression analysis. It provides a statistically robust approach for studying regional variat...
In an earlier study, Parajuli and Haynes (Growth and Change 43:590–614, 2012) used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess efficiency of broadband utilization across US states. They found that a number of states in the USA assumed an efficiency score of one for broadband adoption and use. While this is not unusual, the commonly used DEA methods—t...
High Speed Rail and China's New Economic Geography presents an analytical approach to assessing the socioeconomic impact of high speed rail in China, with an emphasis on capturing the spatial spillover effects of rail infrastructure development on China's economic geography in terms of land use, housing market, tourism, regional disparity, modal co...
Transportation infrastructure is vital for a nation to function smoothly. However, transportations systems are vulnerable to both natural and man-made hazards and breakdowns can have severe consequences. Therefore, it is important that they are protected and resilient against various types of harmful events. Using a graph-theoretic/social network a...
The primary purposes of this paper are to present the geographic distribution of US business incubators and to explore geographically bounded factors that influence the location of business incubators. Our data show that US business incubators are unevenly distributed across the urban/rural division, states, as well as counties. Factor analysis ide...
This paper examines the adoption of cellular mobile telephony at the district level and the mobile subscription growth rate at the national level in Nepal. The findings suggest that districts that are characterized by higher per capita income, population density, and usage of electricity have higher adoption levels of mobile telephony. Positive spa...
In an attempt to understand the growth of Internet subscribers and the determinants of Internet infrastructure in Nepal, this chapter examines the growth of Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) subscribers at the national level and the factors associated with WiMAX base stations at the district level. The findings suggest that th...
This paper investigates a fundamental question related to the massive railway infrastructure development in China. What is the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on regional economic disparity? The question is investigated from three perspectives. First, the influence of HSR on regional economic disparity is discussed theoretically from the perspectiv...
This study examines the impact of the determinants of new firm formation in New England at the county level from 1999 to 2009. Based on the Spatial Durbin panel model that accounts for spillover effects, it is found that population density and human capital positively affect single-unit firm births within a county and its neighbors. Population grow...
With the advancement of computational technology and applied modeling platforms, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model has been widely adopted for impact assessment. Current CGE modeling techniques enable analysts to achieve robust impact simulation through capturing heterogeneous regional economic structures and dynamic interactions of ec...
The relationship between infrastructure and regional development is an important public policy issue. It is central to decision-making in relation to public investment in infrastructure improvements. Understanding the linkage between infrastructure and regional development requires not only knowledge of the impact mechanisms and appropriate economi...
This paper examines the relationship between asymmetric digital subscriber line (broadband) and dial-up (narrowband) Internet subscribers in Nepal. While the number of broadband subscribers is increasing, the number of narrowband subscribers has been decreasing over the last couple of years. As expected, broadband subscribers “Granger cause” narrow...
Transportation infrastructure has experienced a rapid development in China over the past decade. Although the economic contribution of transportation infrastructure has been widely examined in the literature using various data and approaches, the understanding remains unsatisfactory as the economic output elasticities for transportation are found t...
This paper examines the spatial clustering and correlation of epicentres of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake and its spatial relationship to the telecommunications infrastructure of Nepal. Ripley's K function analysis suggests that epicentres of the main earthquake shock and aftershocks and base stations of worldwide Interoperability for microwave access...
This is a review of a technology transfer activity in China. It uses the High Speed Rail program as a demonstration of the transfer process and explores the recent history that has projected China’s program from almost zero in 2000 to the largest in the World in a decade. The role of government and private sector technology actors are examined with...
In an attempt to understand the growth of Internet subscribers and the determinants of Internet infrastructure in Nepal, this paper examines the growth of Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) subscribers at the national level and the factors associated with WiMAX base stations at the district level. The findings suggest that the...
This book has two objectives. The first is to introduce the Chinese railway system to an international audience and document the evolutionary process of railway development in China. For the first time, this book clarifies the Chinese experience with HSR deployment and details the economic and physical achievements and related managerial issues and...
This research examines the regional impact of public transportation infrastructure in the northeast megaregion of the United States: public highways, railways, transit, and airports. Infrastructure stock is valued in monetary terms from 1991 to 2009. A spatial panel approach with fixed effects is adopted to test the hypothesis of spillovers by cont...
Impact assessment of transportation investment policy is a challenging task as assessment outcome is sensitive to various attributes such as methodology, time period, scale and location of analysis. This study is conducted to evaluate regional impact of public transportation infrastructure in the USA at multilevel geographic scales. The assessment...
This study introduces a new method called Spatial Econometric Computable General Equilibrium (SECGE) model, which integrates both spatial econometrics with computable general equilibrium modeling to improve the effectiveness of impact analysis on transportation infrastructure. Elasticities of factor substitution for the Constant Elasticity Substitu...
This study investigates the impact of the Chinese high-speed rail (HSR) systems on its international tourism demand. A panel data set of 21 countries over the period 1997 to 2012 is analysed using dynamic panel modeling following the classical tourism demand model. The empirical examination confirms the overall impact of HSR is positive, but the sm...
This paper examines the spatial clustering and correlation of epicenters of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake and its spatial relationship to the telecommunications infrastructure of Nepal. Ripley’s K function analysis suggests that epicenters of the main earthquake shock and aftershocks and base stations of Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access...
This study investigates the impact of high-speed rail investment on the economy and environment in China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on the period 2002-2013. The analysis is implemented in a dynamic recursive framework capturing long-run capital accumulation and labor market equilibrium. A national level impact w...
Recently there have been significant efforts to mine location-sharing services data and other similar types of geo-social digital data to understand and analyse the complexity of human mobility patterns. Of these studies, very few studies have examined how mobility patterns vary across different regions of the United States. This chapter intends to...
This paper expands upon the classical Granger causality test with spatial dimensions to investigate the causal linkages between regional economic output and surface transportation infrastructure with a focus on the Northeast Corridor in the United States. To improve the validity of estimation, a panel data set of surface transportation infrastructu...
This study investigates the ex post impact of the Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail (BJHSR) on housing values. A dataset including 1,016 housing communities from the 22 cities along the BJHSR line are analyzed in the tradition of the hedonic pricing model using three estimation procedures: a robust ordinary-least square regression, a Box-Cox transfo...
This paper introduces a new general equilibrium approach to evaluate economic impact of public transportation capital stock in the US. By treating public transportation capital as separated factor accounts, the model enables us to assess the economic impact of public transportation stock for four modes: road, air, transit, and water transportation....
This study introduces a new method called Spatial Econometric Computable General Equilibrium (SECGE) model, which integrates both spatial econometrics with computable general equilibrium modeling to improve the effectiveness of impact analysis on transportation infrastructure. Elasticities of factor substitution for the Constant Elasticity Substitu...
A panel session on “Applied Geography and Education” was held at the 2011 Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting. Each panelist presented their observations and suggestions followed by a roundtable discussion. Potential directions for enhancing applied geography education are grouped by student recruitment and retention, professionalism...
This paper examines the spatial heterogeneity associated with broadband Internet and new firm formation. The global coefficient estimates of ordinary least-squares regression account for the marginal change in a phenomenon, but such a global measure cannot reveal the locally-varying dynamics. Using Geographically Weighted Regression, it was found t...
In an earlier study, Parajuli and Haynes (2012) used multiple-input/multiple-output Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. They found that a number of states in the U.S. assumed an efficiency score of one for broadband adoption and use. While this is not unusual, the commonly used DEA methods — the Charnes, Coopers, and Rhodes model and the Banker...
This timely and fascinating book illustrates how applied geography can contribute in a multitude of ways to assist policy processes, evaluate public programs, enhance business decisions, and contribute to formulating solutions for community-level problems. © Robert Stimson and Kingsley E. Haynes 2012. All rights reserved.
Broadband Internet is considered as an important determinant of economic growth and development. A number of studies examined the impact of broadband on migration, firm location, and economic growth. However, the relationship between broadband infrastructure and new firm formation in the U.S. has not been investigated. This paper fills that gap by...
Entrepreneurship or new firm formation plays an increasingly important role in knowledge-based economic development. Public policy to encourage new firm formation has not focused on high quality, high potential firms, and the search for entrepreneurship policy with high economic impact is still needed. This research evaluates the efficacy of the US...
Data envelopment analysis is used to assess the efficiency of broadband Internet adoption and use in the U.S. Analyses at the state level from 2005 through 2007 suggest that broadband adoption and use is not equally efficient across the U.S. states. Although the instantaneous efficiencies are relatively high for many states, the changes in total fa...
Shift-share analysis is a decomposition technique that is commonly used to measure attributes of regional change. In this method, a large region is decomposed into its relevant functional and regional parts. By decomposing smaller regions embedded in a large region, it allows us to understand larger regions through a process of decomposition of its...
This paper studies regional impact of three mature surface transportation infrastructures in the northeast corridor of the US: highways, public railways and public transit. Infrastructure stock is valued in real terms from 1991 to 2009. A spatial panel approach with fixed effects is adopted to test the hypothesis of spillovers by allowing for spati...
This paper investigates the impact of Chinese high speed rail systems on the tourism industry. Through a multivariate panel analyses, the study confirms that during the period between 1999 and 2010, the emerging high speed rail services do have significant impacts on boosting tourism in China. Provinces with high speed rail services are likely to h...
This paper investigates causal linkages between surface transportation infrastructures and economic performance in the northeast corridor in the United States. To improve the validity of estimation, financial data of highways, public rail and transit are measured in real dollar values. The panel Granger causality test shows that the endogeneity bet...
This paper provides an investigation of the relationship between FDI and regional inequality during the stage of Chinese new regional development strategy. This prefectural level analysis is different from most other studies conducted at the provincial level. A spatial panel data approach is taken to examine the role of FDI in regional convergence...
A panel session on "Applied Geography and Education" was held at the 2011 Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting. Each panelist presented their observations and suggestions followed by a roundtable discussion. Potential directions for enhancing applied geography education are grouped by student recruitment and retention, professionalism...
This is an essay approach to develop a discussion about the role government can play in stimulating electric vehicle (EV) diffusion, adoption and deployment in support of larger societal goals such as sustainability and urban livability. This reviews governance strategy in support of electric vehicle innovation in a way that integrate many societal...
Context: Online social networks and the Web 2.0 technologies embedded in these sites are creating an environment in which individuals can communicate and share information in ways that were previously not possible. Such websites are providing an unprecedented and growing collection of data on individual behavior that is very rich in detail. This in...
This is an essay approach to develop a discussion about the role government can play in stimulating electric vehicle (EV) diffusion, adoption and deployment in support of larger societal goals such as sustainability and urban livability. This reviews governance strategy in support of electric vehicle innovation in a way that integrate many societal...
In this paper we explore how satellite images of global night lights from the years 2001 to 2007 can be used to estimate economic activity at the sub-regional level in the U.S., India and China. The night lights based estimates of economic activity are then spatially analyzed and compared with sub-regional economic indicators where available for se...
The primary purposes of this article are to present new data on the geographic distribution of U.S. business incubators and to explore the geographically bounded factors that influence the location of business incubators. The authors' data show that U.S. business incubators are unevenly distributed across urban/rural divisions, states, and counties...
Business support programs, represented by business incubators (BIs) and small business development centers (SBDCs), play an important role in assisting new or small firms, nurturing entrepreneurial culture, and fostering regional economic growth. For that reason, the location of these programs may interest regional planners or economic practitioner...
This paper explores the relationship between geography and intra-governmental rent-seeking. Drawing on the Principal-Supervisor-Agent model as well as the classic Tullock rent-seeking model, a stylized model of rent-seeking within government is created where geographic proximity between public goods-providing agents and the agents who hire and supe...
In this paper we explore how satellite images of global night lights from year 1992 to 2003 can be used to estimate economic activity at the sub-regional level in the US and China. The night lights based estimates of economic activity are then spatially analysed and compared with subregional economic indicators where available for selected years. W...
Two recent theoretical approaches to the gravity model of spatial interaction are examined with emphasis on the dissimilar physical and statistical theories from which they were respectively derived. Formal relationships between the two methods are demonstrated. The two approaches jointly indicate a general method of generating new hypotheses of gr...
The purpose of the study is the development and application of a methodology for evaluating the economic and environmental effects of various policies for the management of the Texas Coastal Zone. The specific goals of the study are: (1) the establishment of operating criteria which are specific to the Texas Coastal Zone; (2) the development of a m...
As reported elsewhere [3, 6, 111 a large scale modeling effort is underway for the purpose of developing land use and environmental guidelines in the Texas Coastal Zone. The land use portion of this project requires the spatial allocation of commercial, retail and residential elements of the Carpus Christi region under a series of policy constraint...
The literature on regional change in post-reform China suggests a consistent pattern of increasing regional disparity during 1990s. This article explains disparity through the lens of industrial transition as reflected in the three major economic sectors, agriculture, manufacturing, and services from 1995 to 2004. Increased economic output in China...
This article empirically evaluates factors contributing to spatial variations of cellular telephony adoption at the regional level in China. We estimate a logistic model using a variety of specifications for the spatial diffusion of cellular telephony. We find that regional disparity in the adoption and subsequent diffusion speed of cellular teleph...
This article seeks to examine spatially varying relationships between new firm formation and employment growth across U.S. counties. The existing empirical evidence does not provide consistent conclusions of the effect of new business formation on employment growth. The regional effects of new firm formation on employment growth are examined and em...
We develop a non-parametric clustering model of spatial and/or spatio-temporal phenomena based on Kolmogorov entropy. The methodology will be tested using Federal Financing and Housing Administration (FHFA), formerly known as FHA, an agency of HUD (US Dept of Housing and Urban Development) quarterly HPI (Housing Price Index) data of 350 plus cities...
From the 2nd quarter of 2007 onwards through much of the 2008, U.S. consumers experienced an unprecedented hike in gasoline prices. It is believed that this may have changed the travel demand behaviour resulting in less vehicular travel traffic. For eg., the U.S. DoT’s monthly statistics at the state and national level have shown a net decline of m...
Shift-share analysis is a growth decomposition method used to enhance the understanding of change in a system by comparing change in a region of interest with change in a relevant reference region. In geography, its most common use has been in decomposing regional employment growth into component parts: the national share, the industry mix, and the...
In this paper we explore the development of a parameter free region classifier based on Kolmogorov complexity. Given a set of regions described by unlimited but fixed number of attributes for each region, the region classifier will be able to build a classification tree which will help identify which regions are similar/dissimilar to each other bas...
The dynamic nature of traffic flows on urban freeways is self-evident. The plots of workday traffic on segments of major roads
against time of day display the familiar contours of lumpy, peaked curves. Over the years the peaks have become blunt and
the valleys filled, suggesting nearly day long high-volume traffic. At the same time that the average...
In this research note we report on our current efforts on developing a leading indicator of housing prices that could be used to forecast housing prices. Specifically we use Google search index at city level to predict Case-Shiller index. The methodology is based on Granger causality where we carry out two way regressions with lagged variables and...
Recently the field of complexity science has emerged as an amalgamation of many different areas borrowing ideas and attracting
researchers from the physical, biological and social sciences (Holland 1992; Bak 1996; Kohonen 1997; Fabian 1998; Wolfram
1994; Kauffman 2000). Of late, much of this interdisciplinary research has been facilitated by ideas...