Khalid Siddig

• PhD, Habilitation
• Senior Research Fellow/Program Leader at International Food Policy Research Institute

The petroleum sector contributes substantially to the Nigerian economy; however, the potential benefits are diminished due to the existence of significant subsidies on imports of petroleum products. Subsidies on imported petroleum products are considered to be an important instrument for keeping fuel prices, and hence the cost of living, low. The c...

Sudan is a country with a predominantly rainfed agriculture which is a major contributor to GDP, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods. However, with current and projected environmental changes on the horizon there is an urgent need to measure and analyze the impact of these changes. This study analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate chan...

[Available at: https://cgspace.cgiar.org/items/4eff3f1d-4123-455b-a135-7b689e98f3f2] The current conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has had a profound impact on the nation’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME). Such enterprises are a vital part of the country’s econom...

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile is expected to influence many ecosystem services, such as flood regulation, hydro-electricity production, food supply, and habitat provision, among others. Understanding these impacts (positive and negative) requires a comprehensive evaluation framework. This study develops and applies an integ...

Background Malaria remains a public health problem in Kenya despite several concerted control efforts. Empirical evidence regarding malaria effects in Kenya suggests that the disease imposes substantial economic costs, jeopardizing the achievement of sustainable development goals. The Kenya Malaria Strategy (2019–2023), which is currently being imp...

This paper documents the development of a 2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Kenya. A special feature of this SAM is its spatial disaggregation according to malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones. It is built using data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (e.g., the economic survey 2021 and the 2019 Kenya Population and Hous...

Following the January 2011 Revolution, Egypt experienced increasing political instability and has also been the target of intense terrorist attacks. While substantial efforts continue to be exerted by the current regime to put an end to these attacks, it is not clear whether the country's reputation as a safe tourist destination will be restored in...

This paper evaluates spatial market integration in cereal markets in Sudan, focusing on wheat and sorghum, two major cereal crops. Sudan’s context provides important insights on the functioning of markets in economies marred by sanctions, conflicts, soaring inflation, and macroeconomic imbalances. We use long-ranging monthly cereal price data and a...

This paper quantifies the economy‐wide effects of different trade policies on the Palestinian economy, using a detailed database and a general equilibrium model adjusted to the particularities of the Palestinian economy. The findings show that a liberal and non‐discriminatory trade regime provides the highest benefits for the Palestinian economy, i...

Wheat is a strategic and political good in Sudan and has played a central role in the country’s economy during successive regimes. Disruptions in Sudan’s wheat value chain usually leads to shortages of wheat bread, price spikes, and political unrest. With the objective of ensuring sufficient grain supplies for domestic consumption, Sudan’s domestic...

This policy note summarizes the key findings from the following four research papers prepared by the International Food Policy Research Institute with financial support by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID): 1. Bottlenecks in Sudan’s Wheat Value Chains: Insights from Surveys 2. Evaluating Cereal Market (Dis)Integration...

The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack of consensus between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam operation. We introduce a new modeling framework that simulates...

A detailed Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Chile is developed for the year 2017. The main data source for developing the SAM is the Central Bank of Chile, from which a 2017 Input-output Table (IOT), the national accounts and the Integrated Economic Table (IET) are obtained. Additional sources are used to disaggregate the accounts for the SAM, in...

This paper investigates the economy-wide effects of cross-border movements of Palestinian labor for employment in Israel. The integration of Palestinian and Israeli labor markets is unique, as it differs from international labor migration and associated remittances described in the literature. Especially, it departs from the cultural and social dim...

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity generation and impact River Nile flows to Sudan and Egypt. We analyse potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the GERD’s long-term operation using a computable general equilibrium model and outputs of previous studies from biophysical models. Based on a 20% i...

Concerns regarding the impact of climate change, food price volatility, and weather uncertainty have motivated users of simulation models to consider uncertainty in their simulations. One way to do this is to integrate uncertainty components in the model equations, thus turning the model into a problem of numerical integration. Most of these proble...

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to increase Ethiopia's electricity generation and affect water users in Egypt and Sudan. We analyze potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the steady-state operation of the GERD using a computable general equilibrium model coupled with hydrological, water allocation, and crop models. Result...

The OECD and FAO provide growth paths (projections over a period of 10 years) for the agricultural sectors of different countries in their joint OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. This study assesses the implication of the projected agricultural growth paths for the Sudan and Ethiopia on the structures of the economies and the distribution of incomes a...

In this study, we analyze the effects of increasing Palestinian access to shared groundwater aquifers with Israel. We apply a water focused computable general equilibrium model to the economies of the West Bank and Israel and analyze two simulations. In the first, we raise the water abstraction rate of the West Bank to the maximal allowance accordi...

Water fetching and firewood collection are among home activities that are part of the daily routine of many households in rural Ethiopia. Households travel long distances and spend large amounts of time every day for collecting water and firewood. Fetching water and firewood reduce labor available for market related activities such as agriculture t...

Results of general equilibrium models are sensitive to model parameterization and specification. The role of macroeconomic closures and the effect of trade elasticities are documented in the literature, but there is no systematic analysis of the implications of different labor supply specifications for the effect of shocks to labor markets. This st...

The main objective of this study is to investigate the economy-wide effect of improving road transport infrastructure. The study uses the updated and adjusted version of the 2005/2006 social accounting matrix of Ethiopia. The study applies a single country computable general equilibrium model. The simulation scenario is a reduction of trade and tra...

This article analyzes the effects on the West Bank economy of temporary Palestinian employment in Israel, using a new database and a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that Palestinian employment in Israel increases household incomes but distorts the operation of the West Bank labor market and increases domestic wages. Employmen...

Background: Water fetching and firewood collection are among home activities that are part of the daily routine of many households in rural Ethiopia. Households travel long distances and spend large amounts of time every day for collecting water and firewood. Fetching water and firewood reduce labor available for market related activities such as a...

Background: Water fetching and firewood collection are among home activities that are part of the daily routine of many households in rural Ethiopia. Households travel long distances and spend large amounts of time every day for collecting water and firewood. Fetching water and firewood reduce labor available for market related activities such as a...

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)-a multi-year hydropower storage dam under construction on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia-is expected to double the Ethiopian electricity generation. The GERD is expected to impact downstream water users in Egypt and Sudan. Several studies assessed the effects of the GERD on water supply and hydropower gen...

Based on the interest expressed by the Sudanese Ministry of Water Resources, Electricity and Irrigation, the Nexus Regional Dialogue in the MENA Region took the initiative to develop a Nexus Assessment Study for Sudan in collaboration with the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD). The study was carried out by Humboldt University in...

In this paper, we simulate the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of exchange rate devaluation in Ethiopia using a dynamic single country Computable General Equilibrium model. We find that although devaluation helps exports to be more competitive in the short term, thereby increasing export earnings, over the long term the policy is found to...

The main goal of this study is to investigate the characteristics and determinants of rural non-agricultural activities using country representative household survey. This study is based on 14,616 sampled households which was collected from the four main regions of Ethiopia, namely Tigray, Amhara, Oromia and SNNPR which represent more than 90% of t...

In a recent article published in the Journal of Economic Systems Research, Mary et al. (2018) introduced an interesting approach to systematic sensitivity analysis applied in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework. This approach offers a systematic method of identifying the model parameters that have the greatest impact on the u...

Paper accepted for presentation in the International Conference on Economic Modeling and Data Science (EcoMod2019) in Ponta Delgada, Azores, Portugal on July10-12, 2019

Concerns regarding the impacts of climate change, food price volatility and uncertain macroeconomic conditions have motivated users of large-scale simulation models addressing agricultural markets to consider uncertainty in their projections. One way to incorporate uncertainty in such models is the integration of stochastic elements, thus turning t...

Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland

Employment of Palestinians in Israel is one of the special features of the labour markets in the West Bank. But this employment is volatile as closures and regulations administered by the Israeli authorities control Palestinians’ access. In this experiment, we simulated different levels of the employment of Palestinian labour in Israel and assessed...

Rice (Oryza sativa) is an important food staple and a cash crop, which is cultivated in all the ten regions of Ghana under varying agro-ecological conditions. These conditions also reflect the production technologies used and the total farm output. In an attempt to determine the potential sources of production shortfalls on rice farms in Ghana, thi...

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to distinguish between the economy-wide impact of targeting conditional and unconditional cash transfer to Egyptian households following the full removal of subsidies. Analyzing the impact on the middle class whose vulnerability increased during the reform is another addition of this paper that...

Economic development and trade performance in Palestine are strongly affected by the unusual links between the Palestinian and Israeli economies. After years of occupation and sluggish economic growth, the signature of the Paris Protocol was expected to achieve a rapid growth of the Palestinian economy and healthier economic relations with Israel....

Palestine’s limited access to international markets and trade disruptions caused by Israeli closures create food shortages as well as surges in prices across the Palestinian territories. For healthier relations between Israel and Palestine, new arrangements are needed to pave the way to a sovereign Palestinian state with full control over its terri...

Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic produc...

This study examines if the determinants of fertilizer use are the same across crops. Previous socioeconomic studies usually focus on all crops in total or one major crop. Only data from farmers on wheat–maize rotation are used to ensure identical sample. Results indicate differences in factors affecting fertilizer use between two crops. Design of f...

The 2012 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Sudan, with a special focus on agriculture, water, and energy, is built using data from domestic sources in the Sudan, including the Central Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, and the Central Bank of Sudan, besides other external sources....

Fisheries around the world continue to face high demand for more fish to catch in order to offer a healthier alternative source of protein. This is mostly due to the declining global wild fish stock. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), similar to many other countries, has witnessed declining per capita fish availability in the last three decades due to...

Projected local yield and global food price changes trigger good performance in the Sudan at the macro level, Empirical evidence suggest rainfall variations and fluctuating crop yields, Adding some uncertainty to the model resulted in considerable negative effects, Productivity enhancement by 2% in irrigated and 3% in rainfed sector could encounter...

Despite the recent efforts to increase agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, food insecurity remains a major challenge in the country. Improving smallholders´ productivity requires the adoption of suitable agricultural technologies and practices. Previous researches highlighted the importance of socio-economic factors; but widely overlooked the ro...

In his last-week-in-office, former President of the United States (US), Barak Obama, announced the end of more than 20 years of economic, trade and financial embargos on the Sudan. This will allow the Sudan, for the first time in two decades, to receive imported goods and services from the United States (US) and release frozen Sudanese property and...

Purpose This paper analyzes determinants of farmers’ participation and credit rationing in microcredit programs using survey data from Ghana. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the Garrett Ranking Technique to analyze farmers’ reasons for participation or non-participation in credit programs, a probit regression model to estimate factor...

http://unsdsn.org/icsd/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/09/160901-Abstract-Book-for-Web.pdf

The New Rice for Africa (NERICA) varieties have been disseminated in all the rice production regions of The Gambia. However, a review of the available literature on the adoption rate of such varieties shows no studies assessing their adoption intensity in the Gambia. Hence, this study focuses on bridging such a gap by estimating the adoption intens...

A detailed Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the West Bank is developed for the year 2011. The data used to build the SAM are obtained from various official sources in Palestine, mainly the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. Major data sets include the Palestinian national accounts, the supply and use table, the balance of payments, the lab...

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict witnessed a new development in the mid-90s with the introduction of the closure policy. This policy consisting in roadblocks, and fixed and mobile checkpoints restricts the movement of goods and labor between the Palestinian territories and Israel, between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and inside the West Bank....

Given the problems in implementing wheat subsidies in the Sudan and the losses of public funds due to these difficulties, would completely removing the subsidy and saving the public fund for the government lead to drastic implications on the Sudanese households with their different income and regional groups? 2) More than a decade ago, there was a...

The integration of the Israeli and Palestinian labor markets has for a long time attracted attention due the political-military conflict between the two regions and the associated mobility restrictions. In the 1980s, access to Israeli labor markets accounted for a significant share of the total Palestinian employment. However, following the first a...

Technical education and vocational training (TEVT) represents one of the essential determinants of human capital growth and sustainable development. Moreover, it is considered as a suitable remedy for improving the knowledge and productivity levels of individuals and societies. A recursive-dynamic CGE model provides a well-suited toolkit for evalua...

This paper assesses the economic implications of cutting down of petroleum subsidies in Egypt in 2012. A number of policy scenarios is simulated with a static CGE model and an updated SAM for the fiscal year 2012/13 that reflects disaggregated households sector, disaggregated enterprises disaggregated factors of production, disaggregated energy sec...

This study simulates the economy-wide effects of introducing new water pricing systems in Israel. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, STAGE_W, is used that includes multiple water commodities produced from different water resources. The current water pricing scheme supplies potable water to municipalities at fees above the supply costs an...

This paper assesses the economic implications of the termination of the preferential agreement for exporting Egyptian natural gas to Israel in 2012. Abolishing the preferential treatment is simulated with the GTAP model and an updated GTAP database that reflects the actual natural gas production, trade shares, and cost structures in both countries....

Purpose – Like many countries in the developing world, Ethiopia has leased out a huge amount of land to foreign investors. However, empirical evidence on the contribution of international investments to employment generation and food security is limited. The purpose of this paper is to examine the contribution of large-scale farms to local-level fo...

The adoption of agricultural technologies in developing countries is mostly connected to farmers' economic ability to access new technologies and to potential risks associated to them. Empirical evidence shows that household wealth and technology adoption are non-linearly related and that households react differently towards technology adoption bas...

Among the cereals produced in Ghana, rice presents the best opportunity to rapidly increase food production. This is because current yields are far below potential due to low productivity on most rice farms. And despite several policy interventions, rice productivity and self-sufficiency are still low. This study examines the productivity, and tech...

Trust and risk attitudes are two implicit features of human behaviour that play a significant role in the decision making process. This study examines the determinant factors of trust and risk attitudes of individuals and the relationships between them. A number of studies underline that the availability of information is crucial to develop trust a...

As compared with other African countries where the estimated average non-agricultural participation was 42% in the 1990’s, a lower proportion of the labour force is engaged into non-agricultural activities in rural Ethiopia. Non-agricultural activities defined as all economic activities such as manufacturing, service and mining and extractives exce...

Ethiopia is one of the largest countries in Africa in terms of population and land size. Despite the efforts in recent years, food production and distribution is still a major challenge in the country. Hence, improving living conditions and food security of smallholder farmers through increasing agricultural growth remains the main objective of dec...

As one of the driest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the Namibian economy and people are vulnerable and sensitive to climate change. An increase of 2 • C to 6 • C is predicted for the year 2100 along with more variability in annual rainfall. Especially in the arid savannah areas livestock production plays a key role in the country's agricultural s...

Household definition plays a crucial role in the nature and outcome of any research based on household level data. While developing and evaluating policy interventions, survey designers and analysts often assume a 'standard' definition that may not fully reflect the local understanding and/or the actual structure of the households under considerati...

According to the World Bank, Vietnam is considered as one of the success stories among the developing economies because it has reduced its poverty rate from 58 % in 1993 to 14.5 % in 2008 (World Bank, 2012). Within this achievement, agriculture was an important sector with 22 % and 52 % contributions to the country's GDP and employment, respectivel...

Hebei province is one of the most productive agricultural regions and one of the key areas for national food security in China. Since the 1980s, an intensive use of chemical fer-tilisers has been applied to the regional typical wheat-maize rotation system. This resulted in an increase in productivity of the two crops; however it led to a growing th...

The petroleum sector contributes substantially to the Nigerian economy; however, the potential benefits are diminished because of the existence of significant subsidies on imports of petroleum products. Subsidies on imported petroleum products are considered to be an important instrument for keeping fuel prices, and hence the cost of living, low. T...

Israel depends on natural gas imports from Egypt for about 40% of its domestic needs, with the remaining met from domestic production. Gas supplies from Egypt have been erratic since their initiation: disruptions have increased after the 2011 revolution in Egypt and have been further ignited by public discontent. Despite these developments, Israeli...

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed by the Government of the Republic of Sudan (hereafter, the Sudan) and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement ended more than 20 years of civil war. According to the CPA, in addition to the oil produced from northern wells, which represents about 30% of the total oil production in Sudan, Sudan’s Gove...

Water scarcity is an increasing problem in many parts of the world and the management of water has become an important issue on the political economy agenda in many countries. As water is used in most economic activities and the allocation of water is often a complex problem involving different economic agents and sectors, Computable General Equili...

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Despite the recent dominance of oil production, livestock has consistently played a central role in the economy of Sudan represented by Gross Domestic Product and the livelihood of its people. In spite of providing such value, pastoralist areas in Sudan tend to have the highest incidence of poverty and the least access to basic services compared to...

The importance of empirically analyzing the transmission of international prices to and their impacts on domestic markets is growing particularly since the 2006–2008 food price hikes. However, the field is dominated by econometric Price Transmission Analysis (PTA) but surprisingly disconnected from analyses based on simulation models such as Comput...

Recent increases in prices of dairy products in Israel led to consumer unrest and boycotts against dairy producers during the summer of 2011. The Israeli dairy industry is highly distorted with production quotas and administered prices for raw milk, tariff rate quotas and an oligopoly in dairy processing. Since the issue of self-sufficiency and foo...

Prior to the cession of the Southern Sudan from the Sudan in July 2011, there were many challenges that trap the population of many areas of the country by poverty. The education, health, water and sanitation services are extremely poor as a result of the long civil conflict (1955–1972 and 1982–2005) and unfavorable climatic changes and natural dis...

Water scarcity is an increasing problem in many parts of the world and the management of water has become an important issue on the political economy agenda in many countries. As water is used in most economic activities and the allocation of water is often a complex problem involving different economic agents and sectors, Computable General Equili...

Ethiopia applied to be a member of WTO which requires gradual reduction of import duties on imported goods. this paper therefore investigates the likely impact of trade liberalization on the overall macroeconomic set as well as on welfare of different household categories. The study adopted a stage computable general equilibrium model based on the...