Kévin Jean

National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts | CNAM · Laboratoire Modélisation, Épidémiologie et Surveillance du Risque Sanitaire (MESuRS)

Scientific institutions invariably have policies for preventing and reducing harm, which address problems such as physical safety and data security. Surely the protection of planetary health, through the dramatic carbon cuts that are now urgently required, has a place in institutional policy, too.

Background To counter the increasing global risk of Yellow fever (YF), the World Health Organisation initiated the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. Estimating YF burden, as well as vaccine impact, while accounting for the features of urban YF transmission such as indirect benefits of vaccination, is key to informing this strategy....

Background The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. Methods 16 i...

Background The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak h...

Background Overall increases in the uptake of HIV testing in the past two decades might hide discrepancies across socioeconomic groups. We used data from population-based surveys done in sub-Saharan Africa to quantify socioeconomic inequalities in uptake of HIV testing, and to establish trends in testing uptake in the past two decades. Methods We...

Nosocomial infections of both patients and healthcare workers (HCWs) in hospitals may play an important part in the overall dynamics of a viral pandemic, as evidenced by the recent COVID-19 experience. A strategy to control this risk consists in dedicating some hospitals to the care of infected patients only, with HCWs alternating between shifts of...

Yellow fever (YF), a vector-borne viral hemorrhagic fever, is endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America, with large vaccination programmes being used for control. However, significant outbreaks have occurred in recent years. Data on infection rates and seroprevalence is often sparse, requiring robust mathematical models to estimate th...

Introduction : Les politiques publiques visant la neutralité carbone présentent des co-bénéfices au-delà du climat, en particulier dans le domaine de la santé publique. Dans le secteur des transports, la décarbonation passe notamment par le report de modes de transports carbonés vers le vélo. L’activité physique alors générée par les déplacements à...

Moving toward carbon-neutral societies is projected to provide health co-benefits, yet their magnitude is not well-documented and may be context-specific. Synthesizing the evidence on these co-benefits could enhance the engagement of decision-makers and populations. We performed a systematic review including 55 quantitative studies exploring 121 sc...

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has brought a significant shift towards teleworking. While this escalating practice can reduce the risk of infection for workers, its societal and health impact also encompasses non-communicable diseases (NCDs). However, the link between teleworking frequency and NCD risk is unclear. In this study, we ai...

In the transport sector, efforts to achieve carbon neutrality may generate public health co-benefits by promoting physical activity. This study aims to quantify the health impacts related to active transport based on four different scenarios leading France toward carbon neutrality in 2050. The French Agency for Ecological Transition developed four...

Context The difference in prognosis between patients diagnosed with viral versus non-viral hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Egypt remains unclear. Methods We used data from patients diagnosed with HCC between 2007 and 2019 from a large monocentric retrospective cohort at the Damietta Oncology referral center (northern Egypt). Presentation and tre...

Background There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on...

Background Promoting active modes of transportation such as cycling may generate important public health, economic, and climate mitigation benefits. We aim to assess the mortality and morbidity impacts of cycling in a country with relatively low levels of cycling, France, along with associated monetary benefits. We further assess the potential addi...

Background Consultations for sexually transmitted infection (STI) provide an opportunity to offer HIV testing to both patients and their partners. This study describes the organisation of HIV self-testing (HIVST) distribution during STI consultations in Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire) and analyse the perceived barriers and facilitators associated with the...

When compliance with infection control recommendations is non-optimal, hospitals may play an important role in hepatitis C (HCV) transmission. However, few studies have analyzed the nosocomial HCV acquisition risk based on detailed empirical data. Here, we used data from a prospective cohort study conducted on 500 patients in the Ain Shams hospital...

Background: Yellow fever (YF), a vector-borne viral hemorrhagic fever, is endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America, with large vaccination programmes being used for control. However, significant outbreaks have occurred in recent years. Data on infection rates and seroprevalence is often sparse, requiring robust mathematical models to...

Objectives We aim to explore spatial variations in socioeconomic inequalities in HIV testing uptake in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at different geographical scales to identify potential geographical hotspots of inequalities. Additionally, to evaluate the potential benefits of HIV testing programmes, we assess whether local levels of HIV testing match...

Objectives This study aimed to globally assess the prevalence and distribution of primary-origin musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) from 1990 to 2019 to better understand their temporal trends. Methods Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, prevalence rates of six primary-origin MSDs were analysed across subregions, age groups and gende...

Bloodborne pathogens are a major public health concern as they can lead to a variety of medical conditions, including cirrhosis and cancers with significant mortality and morbidity. Three viruses are of major concern: HCV, HBV and HIV. Their transmission is mostly community-associated but the iatrogenic risk of infection is not negligible, even tod...

Background In the transport sector, efforts to achieve carbon neutrality may generate public health cobenefits by promoting physical activity. Objective This study aims to quantify the health impacts related to active transportation based on four different scenarios leading France toward carbon neutrality in 2050. Methods The French Agency for Ec...

Après la crise sanitaire de 2020-2021, l’association Futuribles International a mis en place, en 2022, un forum prospectif Santé 2040 incluant notamment des travaux sur les relations entre santé et environnement 1 . En écho à ces travaux, la revue Futuribles publie, dans ce numéro, un article de Sylvie Znaty, William Dab et Kévin Jean sur la prise...

Objectives Promoting active modes of transportation such as cycling may generate important public health, economic, and climate mitigation benefits. We aim to assess mortality and morbidity impacts of cycling in a country with relatively low levels of cycling, France, along with associated monetary benefits; we further assess the potential addition...

Background: Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models have been widely used to inform public health recommendations regarding COVID-19 control in healthcare settings. Objectives: To systematically review SARS-CoV-2 transmission models in healthcare settings, and summarise their contributions to understanding nosocomial COVID-19....

Objectives To quantify the burden of COVID-19-related sick leave during the first pandemic wave in France, accounting for sick leaves due to symptomatic COVID-19 (‘symptomatic sick leaves’) and those due to close contact with COVID-19 cases (‘contact sick leaves’). Methods We combined data from a national demographic database, an occupational heal...

Introduction We aimed to assess temporal changes in the presentation and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the northern Egypt region, one of the regions reporting the highest incidence of the disease globally. Methods We conducted a monocentric retrospective study. Patients presenting at the Damietta Oncology referral cen...

Cholera outbreaks contribute substantially to illness and death in low- and middle-income countries. Cholera outbreaks are associated with several social and environmental risk factors, and extreme conditions can act as catalysts. A social extreme known to be associated with infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services,...

In response to the COVID-19 epidemic, Egypt established a unique care model based on quarantine hospitals where only externally-referred confirmed COVID-19 patients were admitted, and healthcare workers resided continuously over 1- to 2-week working shifts. Using a mathematical model accounting for the false-negative rates of RT-PCR tests, we compu...

Introduction We aim to explore spatial variations in socioeconomic inequalities in self-reported recent HIV testing uptake in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at different geographical scales, in order to identify potential geographical hotspots of inequalities. Additionally, to evaluate the potential benefits of HIV testing programs, we assess whether loc...

Objectives This study aimed to globally assess the prevalence and distribution of primary-origin musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) from 1990 to 2019 to better understand their temporal trends. Methods Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, prevalence rates of 6 primary-origin MSDs were analysed across sub-regions, age groups, and gende...

Context: We aimed to assess temporal changes in the presentation and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the northern Egypt region, one of the regions reporting the highest incidence of the disease globally. Method: We conducted a monocentric retrospective study. Patients presenting at the Damietta Oncology referral center b...

Contexte Les troubles musculosquelettiques (TMS) affectaient environ 1,71 milliard de personnes en 2020, soit plus de 22 % de la population mondiale. Ces pathologies peuvent avoir des conséquences considérables sur la qualité de vie, mais aussi sur la productivité et les coûts de santé. Or, à ce jour, les variations géographiques mondiales et les t...

In response to the COVID-19 epidemic, Egypt established a unique care model based on quarantine hospitals where only externally-referred confirmed COVID-19 patients were admitted, and healthcare workers resided continuously over 1- to 2-week working shifts. While the COVID-19 risk for HCWs has been widely reported in standard healthcare settings, i...

When compliance with infection control recommendations is non-optimal, hospitals may play an important role in hepatitis C (HCV) transmission. However, few studies have analysed HCV acquisition risk based on detailed empirical data in order to identify high-risk patient profiles or transmission hotspots. We used data from a prospective cohort study...

Objective: To better understand the different pathways linking socioeconomic position and HIV testing uptake in 18 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Design: We used cross-sectional population-based surveys between 2010 and 2018. Methods: Using a potential outcomes framework and the product method, we decomposed the total effect linking weal...

Objectives: Energy transition scenarios are prospective outlooks describing combinations of changes in socio-economic systems that are compatible with climate targets. These changes could have important health co-benefits. We aimed to quantify the health benefits of physical activity caused by active transportation on all-cause mortality in the Fre...

Background Healthcare settings, where invasive procedures are frequently performed, may play an important role in the transmission dynamics of blood‐borne pathogens when compliance with infection control precautions is suboptimal. Aims To understand and quantify the role of hospital‐based invasive procedures on hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission...

In addition to its potential contribution to reaching climate targets, cycling may generate substantial population-level health benefits through the physical activity it requires. Due to the lack of nationally representative mobility data, the health impact of current levels of cycling is still unknown for France. Relying on a health impact assessm...

Objectives: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) represent a major public health issue, affecting more then 40 million European workers in 2017. The overall aging of the working population is expected to increase the burden of disease, but temporal changes in exposures or diagnosis may also drive the global trends in MSD. We therefore conducted a syste...

Les avancées techniques en biologie de synthèse rendent de plus en plus accessibles la modification ou même la fabrication de virus en laboratoire. Plusieurs travaux de recherche fondés sur la synthèse de pathogènes à potentiel pandémique ont créé la polémique au cours des années 2010 et, aujourd’hui encore, l’éventualité qu’une fuite de laboratoir...

Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) represent a major public health issue, affecting more than 40 million European workers in 2017. The overall ageing of the working population is expected to increase the burden of disease, but temporal changes in exposures or diagnosis may also drive global trends in MSDs. We, therefore, sought to review...

Objectives: Socioeconomic inequalities in HIV prevention services coverage constitute important barriers to global prevention targets, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed at monitoring these inequalities from population-based survey data in 18 SSA countries between 2010 and 2018. Methods: We defined eight HIV indicators aimed at cap...

Background Energy transition scenarios are prospective outlooks describing combinations of changes in socio-economic systems that are compatible with climate targets. These changes could have important short-term health co-benefits. We aimed to quantify the health benefits of physical activity caused by active transportation on all-cause mortality...

Healthcare facilities are vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 introductions and subsequent nosocomial outbreaks. Antigen rapid diagnostic testing (Ag-RDT) is widely used for population screening, but its health and economic benefits as a reactive response to local surges in outbreak risk are unclear. We simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a long-term care hos...

Background Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination. Methods We describe the...

Background: Healthcare settings, where invasive procedures are frequently performed, may play an important role in the transmission dynamics of blood-borne pathogens when compliance with infection control precautions remains suboptimal. This study aims at better understanding and quantifying the role of hospital-based invasive procedures on hepatit...

Background Cholera outbreaks contribute significantly to diarrhoeal disease mortality, especially in low-income countries. Cholera outbreaks have several social and environmental risk factors and extreme conditions can act as catalysts for outbreaks. A social extreme with known links to infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption t...

Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) affect nearly 40 million European workers in 2017. Since age constitutes an important risk factor for MSDs, the overall aging of the working population is expected to influence the burden of disease. However, factors other than aging that may explain global trends in MSDs are unknown. We conducted a syst...

In order to reach the first 95 (i.e., 95% of people living with HIV having knowledge of their status) of the 2030 UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, it is crucial to better understand the contextual or structural factors driving socioeconomic inequalities in HIV testing uptake. It is still unclear whether they are mostly influenced by epidemiological or by m...

Introduction: Although socioeconomic inequalities in HIV prevention, testing and treatment services have been well documented, their drivers remain poorly understood. Understanding the different pathways between socioeconomic position and HIV testing across different countries could help designing tailored programs aimed at reducing such inequaliti...

Objectives Socioeconomic inequalities in the access to and uptake of HIV prevention services constitute important barriers to global prevention targets, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed at monitoring these inequalities based on data from population-based surveys conducted in 18 SSA countries between 2010 and 2018. Methods We define...

Résumé L’Enquête européenne des entreprises sur les risques nouveaux et émergents (ESENER) a montré que les actions préventives sur le lieu de travail sont souvent perçues comme une contrainte réglementaire. Les avantages économiques et sanitaires de la prévention sont mal documentés et laissent la voie libre à une perception négative dominante des...

Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years...

Objective The benefit of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against HCV following successful treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. This meta-analysis of individual patient data assessed HCC recurrence risk following DAA administration. Design We pooled the data of 977 consecutive patients from 21 studies of HCV-related ci...

Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling. We refine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account...

Background Workplace absenteeism increases significantly during influenza epidemics. Sick leave records may facilitate more timely detection of influenza outbreaks, as trends in increased sick leave may precede alerts issued by sentinel surveillance systems by days or weeks. Sick leave data have not been comprehensively evaluated in comparison to t...

Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination. We describe the methods implemented...

In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, Egypt adopted a unique care model based on quarantine hospitals for Covid-19 patients, with dedicated medical teams residing in the hospital days and nights during working shifts. However, the impact of this approach on the infection risk for healthcare workers (HCWs) is uncertain. Based on data collected withi...

Background Yellow fever (YF) is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. Current intervention policies, namely the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy are actioned through vaccination. However, the stockpiles and production mean that vaccination can be in short supply. As such, intervention str...

La mesure des risques est indispensable pour les prévenir en complément des autres approches centrées sur les individus et les postes de travail. Deux outils sont disponibles : l’épidémiologie et la modélisation des risques. Tous les deux demandent une bonne compréhension du concept de risque et des indicateurs qui le caractérisent. Sans qu’ils aie...

Introduction: The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, by how much PMVCs decrease the risk of outbreak to occur has not yet...