Kevin J Fox

• PhD
• Professor at UNSW Sydney

This paper examines the impact of investment in research and innovation on Australian market sector productivity. While previous studies have largely focused on a narrow class of private sector intangible assets as a source of productivity gains, this paper shows that there is a broad range of other business sector intangible assets that can signif...

The use of multilateral comparison methods in a time series context is increasingly becoming an accepted approach for incorporating scanner data in a Consumer Price Index. The attractiveness stems from the ability to be able to control for chain drift bias. Consensus on two key issues has yet to be achieved: (i) the best multilateral method to use,...

A decomposition of nominal value added growth over multiple sectors of an economy into explanatory factors is presented. The explanatory factors over a single sector are changes in the efficiency of the sector, growth of primary inputs, changes in sectoral output and input prices, technical progress and returns to scale. In order to implement the d...

Productivity measures are increasingly regarded as key indicators of economic performance. Identifying sources of productivity growth is of interest to both firms and policy makers. This paper revisits the debate on how to decompose productivity growth into explanatory factors, with a focus on extracting technical progress, technical efficiency cha...

Definitions of output and input are key to studies of productivity analysis, as they are to the national accounts of countries. This paper systematically reviews alternative definitions at production unit and aggregate levels, illustrating the different perspectives that they provide on production and income, and making the case for their use in un...

The increasing availability of supermarket scanner data covering expenditures and prices on a wide range of products has created new opportunities for national statistical institutes, including the possibility of publishing more reliable indicators of monthly price changes. We discuss and evaluate the properties of different multilateral index numb...

National statistical offices have faced unprecedented circumstances in the modern history of economic measurement. There were dramatically changing consumer expenditure patterns due to pandemic conditions, with lockdowns and fear of infection making many goods and services unavailable. We examine the implications of changing relative expenditures f...

Millions of goods and services are now unavailable in many countries due to the current coronavirus pandemic, dramatically impacting on the construction of key economic statistics used for informing policy. This situation is unprecedented; hence, methods to address it have not previously been developed. Current advice to national statistical office...

Brynjolfsson et al. (2019a) have used experimental economics to measure the welfare benefits of free commodities and to define an extended measure of output, GDP‐B. In this paper, their methodological approach is generalized to measuring the benefits of new commodities which may or may not be free. Their approach leads to a new method for estimatin...

There are many decompositions of productivity growth for a production unit that rely on the ratio approach to index number theory. In this paper, three analogous decompositions for productivity growth in a difference approach to index number theory are obtained. The first approach uses the production unit’s value added function in order to obtain a...

We suggest a methodology that allows statistical agencies to form approximations to the benefits that flow to households from new free goods. The present production-oriented GDP measures are not satisfactory for measuring real household consumption and will be increasingly inaccurate as free goods, such as those made possible by the digital revolut...

A puzzling development over the past 15 years is decline in Total Factor Productivity in many advanced economies. Part of this decline may be due to the rapid growth of free digital goods. Statistical agencies have no reliable way to measure the benefits of the introduction of free goods. This is true even when the provision of the goods is paid fo...

Firms have greatly increased their cash holdings since the mid-1990s. These holdings have an opportunity cost; i.e., allocating firm financial capital into monetary deposits means that investment in real assets is reduced. Traditional measures of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) do not take into account these holdings of monetary assets. Given the r...

The welfare contributions of the digital economy, characterized by the proliferation of new and free goods, are not well-measured in our current national accounts. We derive explicit terms for the welfare contributions of these goods and introduce a new metric, GDP-B which quantifies their benefits, rather than costs. We apply this framework to sev...

The productivity slowdown across industrialised countries since around 2004 is a topic of much interest to academic researchers and policy makers alike. As we search for explanations for the slowdown, it is useful to consider what the performance has been at the industry level. This article provides some evidence and perspectives from official Aust...

The use of multilateral indexes is increasingly an accepted approach for incorporating scanner data in a Consumer Price Index. The attractiveness stems from the ability to be able to control for chain drift bias. Consensus on two key issues has yet to be achieved: (i) the best multilateral method to use, and (ii) the best way of extending the resul...

A problem with index number methods for computing TFP growth is that during recessions these methods show declines in TFP. This is rather implausible since it implies technological regress. We develop a new method to decompose TFP growth into technical progress and inefficiency arising from the short run fixity of capital and labour, and apply this...

A method for decomposing nominal value-added growth is presented, which identifies the contributions from efficiency change, growth of primary inputs, changes in output and input prices, technical progress, and returns to scale. In order to implement the decomposition, an estimate of the relevant cost-constrained value-added function for the two pe...

Using the new Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts as well as other BEA data, we construct productivity accounts for two key sectors of the US economy: the Corporate Nonfinancial Sector (Sector 1) and the Noncorporate Nonfinancial Sector (Sector 2). Calculating user costs of capital based on, alternatively, ex post an...

THE ET INTERVIEW: PROFESSOR W. ERWIN DIEWERT - Volume 34 Issue 3 - Kevin J. Fox

The use of multilateral comparison methods in a time series context is increasingly becoming an accepted approach for incorporating scanner data in a Consumer Price Index. The attractiveness stems from the ability to be able to control for chain drift bias. Consensus on two key issues has yet to be achieved: (i) the best multilateral method to use,...

Developments in property markets greatly influence economic growth, monetary policy, productivity measurement, inflation measurement and hence welfare payments to the disadvantaged. Property price bubbles often lead to financial crises; those experienced during the 20th century were often triggered by commercial property price movements. Yet proper...

Using the new Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts as well as other BEA data, we construct a set of productivity accounts for two key sectors of the US economy: the Corporate Nonfinancial Sector (Sector 1) and the Noncorporate Nonfinancial Sector (Sector 2). Calculating user costs of capital based on, alternatively, e...

We find that unit value prices used for constructing the CPI should be for the same period as the index to be constructed, rather than for a sub-period. The latter approach can lead to an upward bias in the CPI.

Consumers are very responsive to sales, yet statistical agency practice typically under-weights sale prices in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Evidence is lacking on the impact on the representativeness of prices included in the CPI and on estimates of inflation. We use high-frequency scanner data from US supermarkets to explore if there is any sys...

This paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts (SNA). Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country. Related service price indexes for the land and structure input comp...

Research and innovation are widely agreed to be major driving forces behind long-term productivity and economic growth. However, the relationships have proven to be difficult to quantify. We make reference to the international literature and draw on recent research for Australia to advance our understanding of these relationships. Particular focus...

It is common for comparisons to be made of output growth and inflation across groups of countries, yet such comparisons can result in inconsistencies. We address two problems: (i) how to measure aggregate real output and inflation for groups of countries and (ii) how to construct measures of real GDP for a group of countries where the country measu...

A previously overlooked source of potential bias in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is described. We find that unit value (average) prices, commonly used for construction of the CPI should be constructed over the same period as the index to be constructed, rather than over an incomplete sub-period. The latter approach can lead to an upward bias in t...

Diewert and Fox (2013) proposed decompositions of a Malmquist-type productivity index into explanatory factors, with a focus on extracting technical progress, technical efficiency change and returns to scale components. A major problem with their decompositions is that it may be difficult to determine the appropriate reference technologies. Using r...

Consumers are very responsive to sales, yet statistical agency practice typically under-weights sale prices in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with some agencies excluding sale prices completely. Evidence is lacking on how this may impact on both the representativeness of prices included in the CPI and on estimates of inflation. We use high-frequen...

In a contribution to the sparse literature on the impacts on consumers of quarantine restrictions, an innovative approach to analyzing the effects of these policies on the prices and quality of imported products is proposed. Specifically, various index number decompositions at different aggregation levels are considered for extracting quality chang...

Caves, Christensen, Diewert introduced Malmquist output, input and productivity indexes into production theory in a systematic way. This paper revisits the debate on how to decompose Bjurek’s concept of a Malmquist productivity index into explanatory factors, with a focus on extracting technical progress, technical efficiency change, and returns to...

This paper examines the impact of investment in research and innovation on Australian market sector productivity. While previous studies have largely focused on a narrow class of private sector intangible assets as a source of productivity gains, this paper shows that there is a broad range of other business sector intangible assets that can signif...

The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country. Related service price indexes for the land and structure input components...

This paper provides methodologies for evaluating consumer benefits of infrastructure services using potentially observable information. We define benefit measures for consumers and, using general principles from the index number literature, derive alternative first and second order approximations to these measures under the assumption of fixed pric...

Non-linear pricing, the fact that prices do not necessarily change in proportion to size, is a ubiquitous phenomenon. However, it has been neither particularly well understood nor well measured. Non-linear pricing is of practical importance for statistical agencies who, in constructing price indexes, are often required to compare the relative price...

The empirical literature on price indices consistently finds that aggregation methods have a considerable impact, particularly when scanner data are used. This paper outlines a novel approach to test for the homogeneity of goods and hence for the appropriateness of aggregation. A hedonic regression framework is used to test for item homogeneity acr...

Indexes often incorporate various biases due to their methods of construction. The Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) index can potentially eliminate substitution bias without needing current period expenditure data. The CES index requires an elasticity parameter. We derive a system of equations from which this parameter is estimated. We fin...

Chaining is used in index number construction to update weights and link new items into an index. However, chained indexes can suffer from, sometimes substantial, drift. The Consumer Price Index Manual (ILO, 2004) recommends the use of dissimilarity indexes to determine when chaining is appropriate. This study provides the first empirical applicati...

Caves, Christensen and Diewert proposed a method for estimating a theoretical productivity index for a firm using Törnqvist input and output indexes, augmented by exogenous estimates of local returns to scale. However, in order to implement their method, they assumed that the firm maximized revenue in each period, conditional on the observed input...

Patterns of trade have changed enormously over the last 30 years, particularly due to the economic emergence of several Asian countries. With the increasing international tendency for bilateral preferential trade agreements, it is important for countries to be aware of trade substitution possibilities. This paper estimates import and export price e...

Caves, Christensen and Diewert proposed a method for estimating a theoretical productivity index for a firm using Törnqvist input and output indexes, augmented by exogenous estimates of local returns to scale. However, in order to implement their method, they assumed that the firm maximized revenue in each period, conditional on the observed input...

A concise introduction to the Normalized Quadratic expenditure or cost function is provided so that the interested reader will have the necessary information to understand and use this functional form. The Normalized Quadratic is an attractive functional form for use in empirical applications as correct curvature can be imposed in a parsimonious wa...

The impact of weekly, monthly and quarterly time aggregation on estimates of price change is examined for nineteen different supermarket item categories over a fifteen month period using scanner data. We find that time aggregation choices (the choice of a weekly, monthly or quarterly unit value concept for prices) have a considerable impact on esti...

This chapter analyzes the effects of a license buyback program and the establishment of a brokerage service to stimulate quota trading on the profitability of vessels in the Australian South East Trawl Fishery. Using individual firm-level data and a profit index decomposition method, we find that all vessel classes (small and large) experienced sub...

Labour underutilisation is typically measured by dividing the number of employed workers by the total labour force. This yields the "unemployment rate," which is com-monly used for modelling, policy and public debate purposes. Clearly this measure ignores the fact that workers are heterogeneous, and hence is likely to overstate the degree to which...

Lucas (1988) modelled the productivity of workers as being a function not only of their own human capital but the human capital of the people with whom they work. Using individual data, this paper investigates whether there are such human-capital externalities. In particular, we look at the research output of academic economists, and ask whether re...

The paper develops an extension of a one period model of production involving beginning and end of the period capital stocks along with output and input flows that is due to Hicks and Edwards and Bell. This generalized Austrian model of production takes into account that end of the period capital stocks result from: (i) purchases of new investment...

We present the first ex post study that quantitatively analyses the effects of a licence buy-back and enhanced quota trading on the profitability and productivity of individual vessels in a fishery. Using firm-level data and a profit index decomposition method, we find that small and large vessels and three different trawler fleets all experienced...

It is shown how the Bennet indicator (or ``index'') can be made transitive. This is particular useful for making consistent (profit, cost, price, quantity) comparisons between firms when there are more than two firms and/or more than two periods. The method is given both statistical and economic justifications.

This article examines the relationship between high-tech capital use and productivity. Using Australian data, some evidence is found of a positive relationship between high-tech capital use and productivity in the market sector, but there is much less evidence of excess returns. These results are robust to the use of a variety of different measures...

The paper describes a method of estimating variable returns to scale in production that adaptively fits spline functions, using model selection criteria, to determine the appropriate number and location of break points for a fixed factor of production. Unlike other approaches, the method obtains nonparametric estimates of variable returns to scale...

This paper reviews and applies some recently proposed methods for separating total factor productivity (TFP) growth into contributions from technical progress and returns to scale, allowing for imperfectly competitive markets. The methods are applied to New Zealand data, using a recently available dataset on nine market-sector industries and the ag...

Regulators in many countries have adopted individual transferable quotas as a means of dealing with the open access problem inherent in fisheries. Using individual vessel data prior to and after the introduction of ITQs in Canada's multi-species Scotia-Fundy mobile gear fishery, the paper uses an index number profit decomposition to compare vessel...

A number of theoretical results on estimating returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups are derived when there are multiple outputs and inputs. The choice of value added versus gross output and problems that arise in aggregation across sectors of an economy are also considered. Using US data on manufacturing, evidence is found o...

A firm may be different from other firms either in terms of the mix or scale of its input-output vector. This paper develops separate mix and scale measures of dissimilarity, and shows that these can be additively aggregated into a measure of absolute dissimilarity. The mix measure is particularly relevant in the context of frontier analysis since...

Using a standard definition of productivity growth, it is shown that a country may have higher productivity growth than another country in each sector, but may have a lower productivity growth rate overall. Also, it is shown that popular methods for ag-gregating firm/industry estimates of productivity growth have a serious problem in that productiv...

A justification for the use of the EKS multilateral index can be given from the economic approach to index numbers. Copyright 2003 by the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth.

We extend Fox, Kohli, and Warren (2002) by using alternative techniques to re-examine the sources of New Zealand's macroeconomic performance during the period 1983-2001. Specifically, a modified Diewert-Morrison decomposition is used to quantify the separate contributions from productivity growth and changes in factor utilization, the terms of trad...

A new method is introduced and applied to the British Columbia halibut fishery to analyze changes in productivity of firms harvesting a natural capital stock. The index-number technique decomposes the contributions of output prices, variable input prices, fixed inputs and productivity to firm profits, adjusted for changes in the natural capital sto...

The paper presents the first ex-post analysis of profit and productivity of individual vessels following a vessel or licence buyback in a fishery. Using individual firm-level data for the period 1997-2000, the paper analyzes a “natural experiment" of the effects of a 1997 scheme to reduce fishing capacity in the South East trawl fishery of Australi...

Technical Progress in matching models of the labour market has not received serious attention. This article examines the impact on the results of these models when an attempt is made to allow time to enter in a realistic fashion, and finds that recently published results on the possibility of multiple equilibria are overturned. Also, different para...

We evaluate New Zealand's macroeconomic performance over the 1967-96 period, which witnessed numerous economic reforms. Using both index-number and econometric techniques, we decompose nominal GDP growth and the output gap into contributions from price level changes, productivity growth and changes in factor utilisation. Changes in domestic prices...

Regardless of where we live, the management of the public sector impacts on our lives. Hence, we all have an interest, one way or another, in the achievement of efficiency and productivity improvements in the activities of the public sector. For a government agency that provides a public service, striving for unreasonable benchmark targets for effi...

With the increasing pace of infrastructure reform in most countries there has been considerable debate about who has benefited from reform: is it shareholders, consumers, employees or taxpayers? Concurrent changes in output and input prices, productivity and firm size have made answering this question difficult. This paper uses a new indexing metho...

While many model selection criteria have been suggested over the last thirty years, applied researchers still rely on R2 and R -2 to a surprising degree. It is suggested that this is mainly due to the extra informational content of these criteria compared to other alternatives. Expressions for other (superior) criteria are derived which allow the s...

The British Columbia halibut fishery provides a natural experiment of the effects of "privatizing the commons." Using firm-level data from the fishery 2 years before private harvesting rights were introduced, the year they were implemented, and 3 years afterward, a stochastic frontier is estimated to test for changes in technical, allocative, and e...

A range of performance measures are suggested and evaluated in the context of regulated industries with multiple inputs and/or multiple outputs. These measures are intended to induce optimizing behavior, i.e., to induce unit cost minimization or productivity growth maximization. Intertemporal and practical implementation issues are also considered....

We present two alternative, but complementary, approaches to evaluating New Zealand’s economic performance over a period which included numerous economic reforms. Using both index-number and econometric techniques, we decompose nominal GDP growth for New Zealand into components of interest (price changes, productivity growth and changes in factor u...

This paper looks at the characteristics that explain research productivity in a cross section of academic economists. From a sample of 150 economists, we obtained data on a range of human capital variables, teaching loads and research funding. The results suggest that human capital variables, particularly the grade of honours and the nature and loc...

While it is widely acknowledge that enormous productivity gains have been achieved through the use of modern technology such as computers, measured productivity growth has been lower in industrialized countries in the last 25 years compared to the previous 50 years. Many authors have argued that measurement error cannot possibly explain this produc...

Using a standard definition of cost efficiency, a multi-product firm may be more efficient at producing each product than any other firm, yet it may not be the most efficient firm overall. The explanation for this seeming paradox leads to important implications for the reporting of efficiency scores at different levels of aggregation for the public...

Because food prices are no longer volatile, it makes little sense to exclude them anymore from calculations to determine core inflation.

The modelling of technical progress in a production economy is a problem of great interest. Non-parametric approximation of technical progress through the use of an adaptively fitted spline function is presented as an attractive solution. An application demonstrates the sensitivity of estimates of technical progress and price elasticities to the sp...

The British Columbia halibut fishery provides a natural experiment of the effects of "privatizing the commons". Using firm-level data from the fishery two years before private harvesting rights were introduced, the year they were implemented and three years afterwards, a stochastic frontier is estimated to test for changes in technical, allocative...

Because food prices are no longer volatile, it makes little sense to exclude them anymore from calculations to determine core inflation.

Various methods for choosing the appropriate degree of ?augmentation? for augmented Dickey-Fuller tests are compared using Monte Carlo experiments. A commonly used method is found to result in very low power It is interesting that Humans try to find Meaningful Patterns in things that are essentially random. (Commander Data, Star Trek, 1992)

This article demonstrates the compelling case for using the geometric mean formula for splicing overlapping index number series. The justification for using the geometric mean rests on the fact that it is the only symmetric mean formula that generates a spliced series that is invariant to rescaling of the original series.

What have been the eects of technological change on production in OECD economies? Are there any systematic dierences between the countries in the Asia Pacic Region and other OECD countries? Estimates of aggregate and biased technological change for 18 OECD countries are generated, treating each economy as a trading economy with multiple outputs as...

The use of the Translog functional form to estimate technical progress may result in misleading conclusions. Alternative analytic functional forms in the demand system approach to measuring technical progress are compared empirically. Specifically, Translog, Normalized Quadratic and Leontief functional forms are used in combination with linear repr...

The purpose of this paper is to assess the contribution of each one of the major factors explaining Australian nominal GDP growth: technological change, movements in the terms of trade, increases in the endowments of labour and capital, and changes in domestic output prices. We use an index number technique as well as an econometric approach. Moreo...

This paper provides further evidence on the Carr-Darby-Thornton (CDT) “shock absorber” approach in which a conventional demand-for-money function, augmented with unanticipated money supply shocks, is characterized as a price equation. The parameter restrictions implied by this model are jointly tested using New Zealand data. Unlike previous studies...

We examine the impact of time aggregation on price change estimates for 19 supermarket item categories using scanner data. Time aggregation choices lead to a difference in price change estimates for chained indexes which ranged from 0.28% to 29.73% for a superlative index and an incredible 14.88%-46,463.71% for a non-superlative index. Traditional...

The problem of assessing the impact of firm entry and exit on aggregate productivity growth is addressed. The proposed method overcomes some problems with currently proposed methods. The paper also addresses some of the problems involved in aggregating outputs and inputs when firms enter and exit so that the one output and one input aggregate produ...

Fifty years ago most economists would have agreed that the appropriate measure of a country's output would be its net domestic product, or output net of the consumption of capital. However, currently the most widely reported and used concept of output that is gross domestic product (GDP). It can be shown that the "new economy" can potentially resul...