Kevin M Bailey

Kevin M Bailey
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA · Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Ph.D.

About

119
Publications
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Introduction
Senior Scientist

Publications

Publications (119)
Article
Full-text available
There is growing evidence that climate and anthropogenic influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in species spatial dynamics. However, less is known about how shifts in species distributions might alter predator-prey overlap and the dynamics of prey populations. We developed a general approach to quantify species spatial o...
Data
Probability of species occurrence. The predicted probability of occurrence of juvenile pollock (A) and flounder (B) averaged over all years based on the best fit GAM selected for each species (see Table 1). Light and dark colors indicate locations of highest and lowest occurrence, respectively. The 50 m, 100 m and 200 m depth contours are shown. In...
Data
Additional versions of GAMs. Full models from Table 1 that also include terms for juvenile pollock and flounder occurrence in the other’s model. We did not include these models in our list of candidate models because the inclusion of the predator and prey terms could have confounding effects on the estimates of species overlap and the recruitment a...
Data
Estimation of threshold flounder biomass. Akaike information criterion (AIC) levels with different estimates of flounder biomass in full model formulation (see Model 5 in Table 1). Actual estimates of flounder biomass (in tons) are shown in addition to standardized estimates (see Methods). (TIF)
Data
Temporal change in correlations between residuals of a pollock stock-recruitment relationship and biotic and abiotic indices. Correlation coefficients were calculated for 15-year moving windows centered at the x-axis values. The symbols indicate the annual mean flounder and pollock overlap (Overlapyr−1), ln-transformed flounder stock size (Flounder...
Data
The statistical significance of all variables in the best fit pollock and flounder GAMs. See Methods for description of variables. The estimated degrees of freedom are shown for smooth terms and linear coefficients and standard errors are shown for parametric. (DOCX)
Article
Full-text available
In marine populations, spatial structure arises over a wide range of scales and forms hierarchical aggregations. Changing spatial structure can alter the demographic and life history trait variation within populations and subject individuals to both novel environmental conditions and interspecific interactions. Thus, changes in the spatial structur...
Article
Full-text available
Prediction of year-class strength is a critical challenge for fisheries managers. Theoretically, predictions of recruitment should be better when they are based on estimates of cohort size taken close to the age of recruitment and may improve if the effects of environmental factors that influence pre-recruit mortality are accounted for. In practice...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods Many marine ecosystems are exploited beyond their sustainable levels. Various underlying scientific, political, economic, and social problems have been identified, but most of this information remains within the confines of those disciplines. For example, fisheries biologists and resource managers have been separated f...
Article
The fishery for Alaska pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the western Gulf of Alaska is dependent on the strength of incoming year classes. Methods were developed to measure late-larval stage abundance and sizes at-sea and to use such data in a near real-time model to forecast recruitment about 4 yr in advance. Larval abundances were weighted for siz...
Article
Full-text available
We developed a hybrid cellular automata (CA) modelling approach to explore the dynamics of a key predator–prey interaction in a marine system; our study is motivated by the quest for better understanding of the scale and heterogeneity-related effects on the arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) and walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) dynami...
Article
Full-text available
Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 1288–1299 Predator–prey interactions are a primary structuring force vital to the resilience of marine communities and sustainability of the world’s oceans. Human influences on marine ecosystems mediate changes in species interactions. This generality is evinced by the cascading effects of overharvesting top predators on...
Conference Paper
The rising trend of arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) biomass in eastern North Pacific ecosystems has raised concern over their predatory impact on the ecologically and economically valuable walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma). Arrowtooth flounder is a top predator in the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) and exerts a large source of mortality on po...
Article
Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is North America's most abundant and lucrative natural fishery, and is the world's largest fishery for human food. The little-known demise of the "Donut Hole" stock of pollock in the Aleutian Basin of the central Bering Sea during the 1980s is the most spectacular fishery collapse in North American history, d...
Article
Full-text available
Over 20 years of egg sampling data were used to reconstruct the geographical and phenological patterns of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) spawning aggregations in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). The analyzed time series (1972, 1978-1979, 1981-2000) included a documented event of climate change (i.e., 1988-1989) and the rise and fall of the GOA po...
Article
The spawning distribution of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and subsequent southwesterly drift of eggs, lavae, and juveniles were investigated in Shelikof Strait, March-September 1987. In mid-March, a hydroacoustics survey found that spawning adults were concentrated in the deeper parts of Shelikof Strait, as were eggs collected in this ar...
Article
Flow cytometric cell cycle analysis was used to determine the fraction of muscle cells in the S and G2 phases of the cell cycle, which were used as covariates with temperature and standard length, in a laboratory-developed model to assess the physiological condition of wild walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, larvae. The assay was calibrated to...
Article
Forecasting recruitment of marine fishes from environmental effects acting upon larvae has proven difficult due to multiple, nonlinear, interacting factors influencing larval survival. We used another approach, which circumvents the period of high egg and larval mortality, and instead improves forecasts from juvenile abundance indices. We compared...
Article
Study of the dynamics in marine fish larvae is notoriously difficult, given their minute size in a vast, complex and variable marine environment. We demonstrate a novel statistical approach, utilizing a panel of 19 annual hatchdate distributions, to unravel environmental and potential harvesting effects on the spawning, hatching and survival proces...
Article
Full-text available
Climate and human influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in predator-prey interactions. It follows that ecosystem-based management of the world's oceans requires a better understanding of food web relationships. An international workshop on predator-prey interactions in marine ecosystems was held at the Oregon State Unive...
Article
Walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma (pollock hereafter) is a key ecological and economic species in the eastern Bering Sea, yet detailed synthesis of the spatial and temporal patterns of pollock ichthyoplankton in this important region is lacking. This knowledge gap is particularly severe considering that egg and larval distribution are essential...
Article
Full-text available
Little is known about the ways in which density-dependent and density-independent factors influence the spatial dynamics of fish spawning, despite their importance for egg and larval development, survival, and, ultimately, recruitment. Using 2 novel approaches, we related the spatial and temporal patterns of 28 yr of walleye pollock Theragra chalco...
Chapter
In this chapter we review the history of fisheries science with respect to climate impacts on fisheries and prognosticate the future of this type of research. Our review of the development of climate and fisheries research reveals that advances in our discipline emerge from the coalescence of four factors: shifts in fisheries economics and policy;...
Article
The effect of predation on population regulation among (epi)benthic communities along the Atlantic coasts is reviewed. Population regulation requires density-dependent mortality at some phase in the life cycle, which can Occur through predation under certain functional (Type III) and numerical feeding responses. Although the potential to induce reg...
Article
Offshore- and deepwater-spawning flatfish species face the problem of transport of their planktonic stages to shallow juvenile nursery grounds that are often far shoreward in bays or estuaries. We compare life history attributes of four offshore-spawning flatfish species in the Gulf of Alaska: Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), arrowtooth f...
Article
Comparative gear tows were conducted during the summers of 1987–1990 in the Gulf of Alaska. Efficiencies of four types of ichthyoplankton sampling gear were compared with respect to total catch and size distribution of larval fish. Fish were sampled using the bongo net (333 and 505 μm mesh), 1 m Tucker net, 3 m Tucker net and the Methot frame net....
Article
Daily increments of age-0 year walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma otoliths from 1985 to 2001 were examined for interannual variability in growth and hatch dates. Fish were collected in summer and autumn surveys near the Shumagin Islands in the western Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Hatch date distributions of these fish were compared with hatch dates of...
Article
Full-text available
Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus) and rex sole (Glyptocephalus zachirus) are both commercially valuable, long-lived pleuronectids that are distributed widely throughout the North Pacific. While their ecology and life cycle have been described for southern stocks, few investigations have focused on these species at higher latitudes. We synthesized...
Article
Full-text available
Climate regime shifts force fish communities through rapid transitions between alternate species assemblages, but little is known about the role that biochemical ecology plays in these transitions. We document a biochemical effect of climate-induced community transitions in boreal oceans: opposite population trajectories of lipid-rich and lipid-poo...
Article
Full-text available
This study examines potential interactions among the environmental variables likely to affect larval walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma feeding in the sea. Walleye pollock larvae were sampled from Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska, and from the eastern Bering Sea, with corresponding environmental data. Variables used in our study were time spent f...
Article
Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is a commercially important marine fish in the Gulf of Alaska that has provided a natural experimental system to study many features of the recruitment process. We review recruitment of pollock in the Gulf of Alaska in the conceptual framework of a complex system. In this perspective, high frequency, or activ...
Article
There has been a recent resurgence of interest in fisheries recruitment as a dynamic and complex process that is integrated over several life stages, with a variety of factors acting across scales to initiate, modulate, and constrain population abundance and variability. In this paper, we review the theory of recruitment phase transitions using a m...
Article
Full-text available
In 1976 the North Pacific climate shifted, resulting in an average increase of the water temperature. In the Gulf of Alaska the climate shift was followed (i.e. early 1980s) by a gradual but dramatic increase in the abundance of groundfish species that typically prey on pre-recruitment stages of walleye pollock. In the present study we used a previ...
Chapter
Full-text available
The impact of climate on fisheries is highly variable, indirect, and complex. Several dominant themes related to climate change and fisheries are considered in some of the chapters in this volume (Chapters 2, 3, and 6), including: complex interactions, formation of patterns over large-scales, high variability over small-scales, and the desirability...
Article
Full-text available
Capelin area major component of cod diet in many ecosystems of the North Atlantic. In the Bering Sea, however, the percentage of capelin found in Pacific cod stomachs is negligible. We hypothesize that the landscape (or 'seascape') features of hydrography and bathymetry of the Bering Sea impose a constraint on the distribution of cod and capelin th...
Article
Fourteen tetra- and six dinucleotide microsatellites, which exhibit minimal stuttering following amplification via PCR were developed from walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma. Most of these loci were isolated from a library enriched for tetranucleotide microsatellites by hybridization of genomic DNA to (gata)7 oligonucleotides bound to streptavid...
Article
Copyright by the Ecological Society of America. Climate can affect population dynamics in indirect ways via nonadditive forcing by external variables on internal demographic rates. Current analytical techniques, employed in population ecology, fail to explicitly include nonadditive interactions between internal and external variables, and therefore...
Article
Full-text available
The population structure of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the northeastern Pacific Ocean remains unknown. We examined elemental signatures in the otoliths of larval and juvenile pollock from locations in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska to determine if there were significant geographic variations in otolith composition that may be use...
Article
Full-text available
Microsatellites have proved to be useful for the detection of weak population structure in marine fishes and other species characterized by large populations and high gene flow. None the less, uncertainty remains about the net effects of the particular mutational properties of these markers, and the wide range of locus polymorphism they exhibit, on...
Article
We studied a Great Lakes peatland protected by a barrier dune system to test the hypothesis that changes in the morphology of a barrier beach alter the wetland surface-water and ground-water hydrology such that the plant rooting zone in the wetland interior might be affected. Hydraulic head measured in observation wells located on transects perpend...
Article
Shelikof Strait in the Gulf of Alaska appears to be near the extreme warm southern end of the spawning range of Alaska plaice (Pleuronectes quadrituberculatus). The spawning location, larval transport, and retention in the nursery area are documented from analysis of historical ichthyoplankton surveys of the region. Data from juvenile and adult tra...
Article
Abundances of larval walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska, in 1981 were far greater than any recorded estimates before that time or since (some patch estimates exceeded 100000 larvae per 10 m). In spite of this extraordinary input, the ensuing 1981 year class was relatively poor. An examination of the feeding habits of larvae collecte...
Article
Offshore and deepwater spawning flatfish species in the Gulf of Alaska, such as arrow-tooth flounder Atheresthes stomias and Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis, have juvenile nurseries that are inshore, in bays or at the mouths of bays. Larvae must emigrate from their spawning areas along the continental slope and outer shelf towards shore, in...
Article
The processes that establish the survival of walleye pollock larvae are complex. High frequency events during egg and larval life introduce noise to the dynamics of the population. Forecasts of recruitment must account for this complexity. Initial conditions impacting larval survival do not significantly account for variability in recruitment, but...
Article
Full-text available
The development of the escape response of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) larvae from attacks by macrozooplanktonic and small-fish predators was quantified in laboratory experiments. Behavior was recorded using video cameras with silhouette illumination from infrared-emitting diodes and by visual observation. Laboratory-reared larvae of 1,...
Article
The critical stage in the life history of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma at which recruitment is largely determined has shifted in the Gulf of Alaska population. This change follows a major environmental regime-shift in the late 1970s and subsequent dominance of the ecosystem by long-lived predatory flatfishes and cod. An exploratory life ta...
Article
Larvae from a large aggregation of walleye pollock spawning in early spring in Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska, are normally transported to the south-west in the vigorous Alaska Coastal Current. In the spring of 1996, anomalous winds resulted in unusually weak transport in the Shelikof Strait sea valley. The main aggregation of larval pollock in th...
Article
The population biology of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, is described including its life history, population dynamics, genetic structure and metapopulation structure. Walleye pollock is an important species in the ecosystems of the subarctic Pacific Ocean, and is one of the world's largest fisheries. The population dynamics of pollock is d...
Article
This paper reviews the physical oceanography in the range of walleye pollock that influences transport and mortality of eggs and larvae, and summarizes the current status of stock structure studies of pollock. A synthesis is presented that links the genetic stock structure and the potential for gene how due to transport. In the eastern North Pacifi...
Article
The concept of structure in populations of marine fishes is fundamental to how we manage and conduct research on these resources. The degree of population structure ranges widely among flatfishes. Although we know that large populations tend to be subdivided into local populations, based on morphological, meristic and reproductive characteristics,...
Article
A series of age-specific life tables for walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the western Gulf of Alaska was compiled for the 1980-91 year classes. The life tables were utilized to perform an exploratory key factor analysis to examine the timing of critical periods in the recruitment process, evidence of density-dependence at different stages...
Article
Interannual variability in growth of larval walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma was examined from 1983 to 1991 and of juveniles from 1985 to 1990. ANCOVA was used to assess differences in population growth rates, and an alternate method was developed to examine variations between annual length-at-age data and average 'expected' values over differ...
Article
Mortality rates of larval walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma were estimated from larval survey data from 1988 to 1991. Mortality estimates were based on cohort-specific losses between occupations of survey grids. Interannually, estimates of early feeding stage larval mortality rates ranged over an order of magnitude, from 0.045-0.43 day(-1), and...
Article
There was a strong association among concentrations of microzooplankton prey sampled from the walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, larval habitat, gut contents of larvae, and their nutritional condition. Subsequently, hypothesized survival potentials linked to food availability were validated by independently determined mortality rates. We prese...
Article
Using observations from 38 ichthyoplankton surveys conducted near Shelikof Strait, Alaska between 1979 and 1992, we characterized the horizontal distribution and spatial patchiness of the early life stages of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogtamma). Lloyd's index of patchiness ranged from 3.9-6.1 for eggs and 3.9–16.2 for larvae. This index was siz...
Article
Two techniques have been developed to examine the three-dimensional internal structure of otoliths. In the first, otoliths were sectioned serially, images were digitized, and the otolith was reconstructed as a computer model. in the second method growth increments were marked in vivo during their formation by immersing the fish in a fluorescent dye...
Article
Walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska, spawn in an area with strong interannual differences in the oceanic environment. Feeding conditions and mortality of walleye pollock larvae in Shelikof Strait were compared in 2 consecutive years of markedly contrasting oceanographic conditions. In 1990, winds were relatively calm, and a large edd...
Article
Gut residence times of first-feeding walleye pollock larvae were measured at 6 degrees C in continuous and discontinuous feeding regimes. Larvae fed tagged copepod prey evacuated their guts more quickly in continuous feeding as compared to the discontinuous feeding treatment. The mean gut residence time was estimated to be 5.0 h for larvae feeding...
Article
Full-text available
Activities of digestive enzymes trypsin, amylase and lipase in laboratory-reared walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, were measured from hatching to Day 39 (just before notochord flexion) in 1993. All measurements were conducted individually or semi-individually (groups of two larvae of the same standard length). Close relationships between dige...
Article
Full-text available
The 1991-93 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event first appeared in the northern Gulf of Alaska in autumn 1991 with warm sea-surface temperatures. In winter 1992, there were pulses of increased sea level and anomalous circulation. El Nino conditions persisted at least through summer 1993. The effects of this ENSO event on major groundfish speci...
Article
This study examines the possibility that wind mixing in Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska, is a critical factor for larvae of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma. The abundances of walleye pollock larvae hatched on a given day and surviving through the early feeding stage were determined by in situ sampling and otolith analysis for 1983 and 1985 to...
Article
Predation on juvenile flatfish may either dampen or generate variability in recruitment. In theory, predation mechanisms which dampen variability include particular types of functional and numerical responses of predators to prey density and density-dependent stage duration. Mechanisms which generate variability include spatial overlapping, variati...
Article
Full-text available
A field study was conducted in May 1988 to estimate mortality rates of individual cohorts of larval walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska. Two surveys of the area of larval distribution were done 12 d apart and daily mortality rates estimated from changes in abundance of each cohort. This study was designed to min...
Article
Immunological detection of yolk protein was used to assess predation by pelagic amphipods (gammarid and hyperiid), mysids, and euphausiids on eggs and yolk- sac larvae of walleye pollock Theragru chalcogrumma during 1988 and 1989. Consumption estimates were made on the basis of frequency of positive immunoas- says, assay detection times (gut cleara...
Article
Abundance indices were formulated from historical data on larvae, age-0 juveniles and age-2 recruits of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, in the western Gulf of Alaska.Indices were examined for linear and rank correlations to determine when year-class strength is established. Age-0 juveniles and recruits were significantly correlated, and the...
Article
Growth rate and hatch date distributions were estimated for juvenile walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma (Pallas, 1814) collected in autumn 1987 from the western Gulf of Alaska. Mean juvenile growth rates varied geographically by as much as 45%. A trend for slower growth around Unimak Pass and the Shumagin Islands and faster growth upstream in th...
Article
Feeding and nutritional condition of first-feeding walleye pollock larvae Theragra chalcogramma were compared to available prey levels measured during early spring (late April-early May) and mid-spring (mid-May) 1989. In early spring, feeding intensity, mean RNA/DNA values of larvae, and microzooplankton abundance were higher within a large patch o...
Article
Full-text available
A strong density-dependent relationship has been observed for the walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma population in the Western Gulf of Alaska. It has been suggested that this relationship may be attributed in part to egg cannibalism by the adult spawning stock. This hypothesis was examined by collecting stomach samples of walleye pollock from th...
Article
Full-text available
Daily increments in otoliths were used to estimate growth rates and hatch dates of young walleye pollock Theragra chdcogramma from the western Gulf of Alaska, USA. Growth rate increased through the first 70 d after hatching and was described by a nonlinear, Laird-Gompertz model. There were no interannual differences in growth rates of young larvae...
Article
Electron transport system (ETS) activity was measured for larvae of the walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma, with the objective of assessing this method for estimating the respiration of fish larvae in situ. The ETS activity decreased minimally after 50 days’ storage at -80°C. The ETS activity increased linearly with larval dry weight. The averag...
Article
This chapter discusses predation as a factor that may regulate levels of recruitment or generate variations in it. It also discusses predation on fish eggs and larvae as an ecological process and review what is known of its importance in the dynamics of fish populations. Only rarely has predation been recognized in past conceptual models dealing wi...