Kesten Green

Kesten Green
University of South Australia | UniSA · UniSA Business

PhD

About

146
Publications
198,431
Reads
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1,779
Citations
Additional affiliations
November 2009 - December 2014
University of South Australia
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
June 2004 - December 2004
Monash University (Australia)
Position
  • Visiting Senior Lecturer

Publications

Publications (146)
Book
The scientific method delivers prosperity, yet scientific practice has become subject to corrupting influences from within and without the scientific community. This essential reference is intended to help remedy those threats. The authors identify eight essential criteria for the practice of science and provide checklists to help avoid costly fail...
Data
We asked 52 university students to make predictions about conflict situations. We gave each student four conflicts from a set of eight. We asked half our participants to assume there were 100 situations similar to a target conflict. We then asked them “…in how many of these situations would…” each one of a list of possible outcomes occur? The full...
Data
Rules for choosing a single-decision forecast from a set of up to five analogies that have been rated for similarity to a target conflict
Data
From “Bad Environmental and Resource Scares”, Chapter 18 of Julian L Simon’s 1996 “ The Ultimate Resource 2”, Princeton University Press, pp 258-273, and “Healing the Planet” afternote on p 274. Reproduced with the kind permission of the Simon family.
Research
Full-text available
The document provides a list of references to articles, books, and movies relevant to the study of regulation.
Research
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The document contains quotations from notable economists, politicians, and other commentators that are in favour of government regulations
Research
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The document contains quotations by notable economists, politicians, and other commentators
Research
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Proposed remedies for harmful regulation
Research
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A list of institutions conducting research on regulations, with links
Experiment Findings
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Katsikopoulos et al. (2021) found that the simple and easily understood recency heuristic-which uses a single historical observation to forecast week-ahead percentage of doctor visits associated with influenza symptoms-reduced forecast errors by nearly one-half compared to Google Flu Trends' (GFT's) complex and opaque machine learning model-which u...
Experiment Findings
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The Global Warming Challenge, aka The Climate Bet (theclimatebet.com), is a record of an experiment to test the relative accuracy of Al Gore's 2007 dangerous man made global warming "tipping point" alarming projection relative to the no-change (no-trend) forecasts of Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) proposed by Scott Armstrong in his challenge to...
Data
Flyer for Armstrong & Green presentation at ICCC Ten Washington, D.C., Including the Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist and abstracts of papers with evidence on "Long-range climate and public policy forecasting"
Method
Full-text available
Ten checklists for Armstrong & Green's "The Scientific Method" book in the form of pdf forms. For more information on "The Scientific Method", see thescientificmethod.info.
Data
Relationship between relative forecast accuracy and R-squares for 99 models
Presentation
Full-text available
"Do we face dangerous global warming?" Scott Armstrong gave a talk at Lehigh University on June 7, 2019 about research with Kesten Green on scientific climate forecasting. The talk was invited by the graduating Class of 1959, of which he is a member, for their 60th Reunion.
Preprint
Full-text available
Purpose: Commentary on M4-Competition and findings to assess the contribution of data models--such as from machine learning methods--to improving forecast accuracy. Methods: (1) Use prior knowledge on the relative accuracy of forecasts from validated forecasting methods to assess the M4 findings. (2) Use prior knowledge on forecasting principles...
Article
Purpose: Commentary on M4-Competition and findings to assess the contribution of data models—such as from machine learning methods—to improving forecast accuracy. Methods: (1) Use prior knowledge on the relative accuracy of forecasts from validated forecasting methods to assess the M4 findings. (2) Use prior knowledge on forecasting principles and...
Preprint
Full-text available
In the mid-1900s, there were two streams of thought about forecasting methods. One stream-led by econometricians-was concerned with developing causal models by using prior knowledge and evidence from experiments. The other was led by statisticians, who were concerned with identifying idealized "data generating processes" and with developing models...
Article
Full-text available
Problem Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting pro- vide more accurate forecasts? Methods To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Sp...
Data
Relative absolute error (RAE) of forecasts from damping compared to forecasts from the original regression models. (DOCX)
Data
Relative absolute error (RAE) of forecasts from equalizing compared to forecasts from the original regression models. (DOCX)
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Commentary of the findings of the M4-Competition presented by Scott Armstrong at the M4 Conference on Monday, December 10, 2018 in New York City.
Preprint
The contribution of regression analysis (econometrics) to advertising and media decision-making is questioned and found wanting. Econometrics cannot be expected to estimate valid and reliable forecasting models unless it is based on extensive experimental data on important variables, across varied conditions. This article canvasses alternative, evi...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Problem: Multiple regression analysis (MRA) is commonly used to develop forecasting models that inform policy and decision making, but the technique does not appear to have been validated for that purpose. Methods: The predictive validity of published least squares MRA models is tested against naive benchmarks, alternative methods that are either p...
Conference Paper
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We examined two papers with long-range forecasts of global mean temperatures (IPCC 2007, and Green, Armstrong, & Soon 2009) that included forecasts of global mean temperatures, and one paper that used the IPCC projections to forecast a dramatic decline in the population of polar bears for compliance with the scientific method. Ratings for complianc...
Article
Full-text available
Problem: The scientific method is unrivaled for generating useful knowledge, yet papers published in scientific journals frequently violate the scientific method. Methods: A definition of the scientific method was developed from the writings of pioneers of the scientific method including Aristotle, Newton, and Franklin. The definition was used as...
Presentation
Full-text available
What most in this room believe… The general welfare is greatest when the “simple and obvious system of natural liberty” that Adam Smith described prevails. Who can really know better…what is best for us, than we do ourselves? But not everyone agrees that freedom trumps all other values. So what is the evidence that regulation can and does increas...
Article
Full-text available
Problem How to help practitioners, academics, and decision makers use experimental research findings to substantially reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems. Methods Findings from our review of forecasting experiments were used to identify methods and principles that lead to accurate forecasts. Cited authors were contacted to...
Research
Full-text available
Decision making is improved by avoiding unaided expert judgment, and using structured judgmental procedures instead. The Red Team-Blue Team approach is one such structured approach. It recognizes that it is difficult for people-including scientists and public officials-to remain objective about the consequences of public policies and regulations. T...
Working Paper
Full-text available
Problem: How to help practitioners, academics, and decision makers use experimental research findings to substantially reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems. Methods: Findings from our review of forecasting experiments were used to identify methods and principles that lead to accurate forecasts. Cited authors were contacted...
Presentation
Full-text available
Discusses the scientific evidence of the effects of regulation, and describes four checklists for assessing whether a regulation is likely to provide substantive net benefit.
Method
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Earlier versions of this Tree appear in various publications and presentations. For more information on the methods and how to implement them, see "Forecasting Methods and Principles: Evidence-based Checklists."
Presentation
Full-text available
Notes for an interview with Steve Bannon on Breitbart London Radio
Article
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Purpose: To respond to issues posed in the four commentaries on Armstrong, Du, Green and Graefe (this issue) regarding the immediate usefulness of that paper’s test of advertisements’ compliance with persuasion principles, and regarding the need for further research. Approach: Address commentators’ concerns using logic, prior research findings, an...
Article
Purpose – This paper aims to test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex situations, such as those faced in engineering and medicine. Design/methodology/approach – Scores were calculated from the ratings o...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose: To test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex situations, such as those faced in engineering and medicine. Approach: Scores were calculated from the ratings of 17 self-trained novices who rated 96...
Article
Full-text available
This article proposes a unifying theory, or the Golden Rule, of forecasting. The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek out and use all knowledge relevant to the problem, including knowledge of methods...
Article
Full-text available
The Golden Rule of Forecasting is a general rule that applies to all forecasting problems. The Rule was developed using logic and was tested against evidence from previously published comparison studies. The evidence suggests that a single violation of the Golden Rule is likely to increase forecast error by 44%. Some commentators argue that the Rul...
Article
Full-text available
The Golden Rule of Forecasting is a general rule that applies to all forecasting problems. The Rule was developed using logic and was tested against evidence from previously published comparison studies. The evidence suggests that a single violation of the Golden Rule is likely to increase forecast error by 44%. Some commentators argue that the Rul...
Article
Full-text available
This article proposes a unifying theory, or Golden Rule, of forecasting. The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek out and use all knowledge relevant to the problem, including knowledge of methods val...
Method
Full-text available
A checklist of requirements for following The Golden Rule of Forecasting. From Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (2015).
Conference Paper
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The Golden Rule of Forecasting requires forecasters to be conservative by forecasting in a way that is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the situation and about forecasting. Violating the average guideline increases forecast errors by more than 40%. We examined whether the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s)...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
With the objective of improving the accuracy of election forecasts, we examined three evidence-based forecasting guidelines that are relevant to forecasting with causal models. The guidelines suggest: (1) modifying estimates of the strength of variable effects to account for uncertainty, (2) combining forecasts from diverse models, and (3) utilizin...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) forecast of dangerous manmade global warming is an important influence on public policy decisions in many countries. Rational policies require that policy makers obtain forecasts from evidence-based methods. A review of comparative studies found that sophisticatedly simple meth...
Presentation
Full-text available
The Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist was used to evaluate IPCC “business as usual” global warming scenario and the Green, Armstrong & Soon no-change model forecasts. Consensus ratings by Armstrong and Green indicated that of 20 relevant Golden Rule Checklist guidelines: • the IPCC scenarios followed none • the no-change model followed 95%
Article
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This article introduces this JBR Special Issue on simple versus complex methods in forecasting. Simplicity in forecasting requires that (1) method, (2) representation of cumulative knowledge, (3) relationships in models, and (4) relationships among models, forecasts, and decisions are all sufficiently uncomplicated as to be easily understood by dec...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose: To test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex situations, such as those faced in engineering and medicine.Approach: Scores were calculated from the ratings of 17 self-trained novices who rated 96...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose: To respond to issues posed in the four commentaries on Armstrong, Du, Green and Graefe (this issue) regarding the immediate usefulness of that paper’s test of advertisements’ compliance with persuasion principles, and regarding the need for further research. Approach: Address commentators’ concerns using logic, prior research findings, and...
Presentation
Full-text available
Earlier versions of this Tree appear in various publications and presentations. Note that the presence of a method in the Tree does not signal its predictive validity. For evidence on which methods are valid, see "Forecasting Methods and Principles: Evidence-based Checklists."
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Golden Rule of Forecasting counsels forecasters to be conservative when making forecasts. We tested the value of three of the four Golden Rule guidelines that apply to causal models: modify effect estimates to reflect uncerainty; use all important variables; and combine forecasts from diverse models. These guidelines were tested using out-of-sa...
Presentation
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A talk to Institute of Economic Affairs summer interns at King's College London
Data
A letter to Mr Wanamaker about the findings of Armstrong, Du, Green, & Graefe (2015).
Article
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The Golden Rule of Forecasting requires that forecasters be conservative by making proper use of cumulative knowledge and by not going beyond that knowledge. The procedures that have been used to forecast dangerous manmade global warming violate the Golden Rule. Following the scientific method, we investigated competing hypotheses on climate change...
Data
Test your forecasting skills: Print this page and draw in your forecasts The charts show monthly global mean temperatures over two half centuries (both during the industrial era). The task is to draw in your forecasts for the next 25 years for both charts.
Article
Full-text available
This article reviews experimental evidence on the effects of policies intended to promote behavior by firms that is more socially responsible and less socially irresponsible. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) can provide firms with opportunities for profit, but changes are likely to increase total welfare only if firms adopt them freely and wit...
Chapter
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The field of forecasting is concerned with making statements about matters that are currently unknown. The terms "forecast," "prediction," "projections," and "prognosis" are interchangeable as commonly used. Forecasting is also concerned with the effective presentation and use of forecasts.
Article
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Following Green, Armstrong and Soon’s (IJF 2009) (GAS) naïve extrapolation, Fildes and Kourentzes (IJF 2011) (F&K) found that each of six more-sophisticated, but inexpensive, extrapolation models provided forecasts of global mean temperature for the 20 years to 2007 that were more accurate than the “business as usual” projections provided by the co...
Article
Full-text available
This article reviews experimental evidence on the effects of policies intended to promote behavior by firms that is more socially responsible and less socially irresponsible. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) can provide firms with opportunities for profit, but changes are likely to increase total welfare only if firms adopt them freely and wit...
Article
Full-text available
Should public policy guarantee First Amendment rights to all citizens at all times? Some of our commentators think not. We argue that there is good reason to hold to rights. Consistent with economic theory and behavioral research, experimental findings show that mandatory disclaimers harm producers and consumers. They are also expensive to develop...
Data
Chart of Hadley "global" average temperature anomalies in degrees Celcius (Centigrade) to ~2012, showing the half-century periods used in the associated Mystery Temperature Chart forecasting quiz, plus 25-year LSQ trend line for first forecast period
Data
Quiz answer scoring regime, and results from attendees at the Green, Soon, and Armstrong seminar at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Boston, 2012.
Article
Full-text available
We found no evidence that consumers benefit from government-mandated disclaimers in advertising. Experiments and common experience show that admonishments to change or avoid behaviors often have effects opposite to those intended. We found 18 experimental studies that provided evidence relevant to mandatory disclaimers. Mandated messages increased...
Article
Our review of five experiments on the effects of mandatory disclaimers led us to conclude that (1) the information they provide is not important to consumers and (2) it is poorly understood by them. We conducted an experiment to assess the effects on decision making of including a mandatory disclaimer in a print advertisement for a dentist offering...
Preprint
Full-text available
Online Supplement to: Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. Scott. “Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising” in Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, Autumn 2012
Article
Full-text available
The validity of the manmade global warming alarm requires the support of scientific forecasts of (1) a substantive long-term rise in global mean temperatures in the absence of regulations, (2) serious net harmful effects due to global warming, and (3) cost-effective regulations that would produce net beneficial effects versus alternatives policies,...
Article
Full-text available
Forecasting procedures are needed only if there is uncertainty about the future. Forecasts are unnecessary when one can control events. For example, predicting the temperature in your home does not require the use of forecasting procedures because you can control it. A forecast that the sun will rise tomorrow is of little value. Many decisions, how...
Chapter
Full-text available
Forecasting is concerned with making statements about the as yet unknown. There are many ways that people go about deriving forecasts. This entry is concerned primarily with procedures that have performed well in empirical studies that contrast the accuracy of alternative methods.Evidence about forecasting procedures has been codified as condition-...
Article
Full-text available
When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person's shoes. We refer to this as "role thinking", because, in practice, the advice is to think about how other protagonists will view the situation in order to predict their decisions. We tested the effect of role thinking on forecast...
Article
Full-text available
When the beach patrol raises the alarm that a shark has been sighted we know what to do, buthow should we respond to an alarm that is based on predictions of what will happen 100 yearsfrom now and the person raising the alarm tells us we must make great sacrifices now to avoid thepredicted catastrophe? To answer this question, we forecast effects a...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The validity of the manmade global warming alarm requires the support of scientific forecasts of (1) a substantive long-term rise in global mean temperatures in the absence of regulations, (2) serious net harmful effects due to global warming, and (3) cost-effective regulations that would produce net beneficial effects versus alternatives policies,...
Article
When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person’s shoes. We refer to this as “role thinking”, because, in practice, the advice is to think about how other protagonists will view the situation in order to predict their decisions. We tested the effect of role thinking on forecast...
Article
Full-text available
We summarize evidence showing that the global warming alarm movement has more of the character of a political movement than that of a scientific controversy. We then make forecasts of the effects and outcomes of this movement using a structured analysis of analogous situations—a method that has been shown to produce accurate forecasts for conflict...
Article
Full-text available
Prior research found that people’s assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and Congressional races. We hypothesized that snap judgments of "facial competence" would provide useful forecasts of the popular vote in presidential primaries before the candidates become well known to the voters. We obtained facial competence ra...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Statement Our research findings challenge the basic assumptions of the State Department's Fifth U.S. Climate Action Report (CAR 2010). The alarming forecasts of dangerous manmade global warming are not the product of proper scientific evidence-based forecasting methods. Furthermore, there have been no validation studies to support a belief that the...
Article
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Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and, if so, whether any proposed forecasting method will provide forecasts that are substantially more accurate than those from the relevant benchmark method. An inspection of global temperature data suggests that temperature is subject to irregular variations on all relevant time scales, and...
Presentation
Full-text available
1. Policy decisions require scientific long-term forecasts of temperature, the impacts of temperature changes, and effects of policies – No scientific forecasts exist 2. Climate data and knowledge are uncertain, and climate is complex – The situation calls for simple methods and conservative forecasts 3. The no-change benchmark performs well – IPCC...
Presentation
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Notes for oral submissions to the Select Committee of the New Zealand Parliament on the Emissions Trading Scheme
Method
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Widely used methods of automated forecasting for production and inventory control contribute to the severity of recessions. We describe an approach to forecasting that should reduce the damage caused by the use of current statistical packages when encountering a substantial change in business conditions.
Article
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Who would win the Climate Bet between Al Gore and Scott Armstrong? Al Gore promotes the view that the world faces great danger from manmade global warming. Scott Armstrong holds that scientific forecasting provides no basis for such a fear, and that global temperatures are likely to change little, in either direction, over policy-relevant horizons....
Technical Report
Full-text available
My submission relates particularly to the following clause in the Terms of Reference: Identify the central/benchmark projections which are being used as the motivation for international agreements to combat climate change; and consider the uncertainties and risks surrounding these projections.

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