Kenneth Barry Medlock

Rice University · Center for Energy Studies, Baker Institute

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects have substantially more spot trading of LNG than traditional projects. While this reduces the debt capacity of the projects, it allows project developers to better exploit many types of real options. Exploiting those options greatly increases the positive skewness of project cash flows. While the mod...

A step-by-step examination of various factors that were blamed for the extended power outage on the ERCOT electricity grid in February 2021 reveals that no single factor fully explains the calamity. All forms of generation capacity experienced failures, but bureaucratic failure in identifying and addressing risks along fuel supply chains was a majo...

We investigate the connection between the choice of transportation mode used by commuters and the probability of COVID-19 transmission. This interplay might influence the choice of transportation means for years to come. We present data on commuting, socioeconomic factors, and COVID-19 disease incidence for several US metropolitan areas. The data h...

We use detailed quarterly data on US energy exports to examine the impacts of the US-China trade dispute on US energy-related commodity exports. Largely due to the shale revolution, the energy-related US current account balance has been reduced to close to zero, down from accounting for about half of the trade deficit in 2008. This is despite evide...

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects have substantially more spot trading of LNG than traditional projects. While this reduces the debt capacity of the projects, it allows project developers to better exploit many types of real options. Exploiting those options greatly increases the positive skewness of project cash flows. While the mod...

While a large body of literature exists on the ability of biochar to retain water and nutrients, little research exists connecting these benefits to biochar qualities, water retention mechanisms, and optimal locations for agricultural use. More information is needed for biochar stakeholders to make informed decisions about where deployment should o...

Electricity market reforms have pursued two goals, both aimed at increasing economic efficiency. The first is to ensure that suppliers minimize costs. The second is to make prices more reflective of marginal costs. We use data from Texas to examine whether post-reform retail prices have better reflected wholesale prices, and whether reform has redu...

Significant evidence has accumulated demonstrating that soil biochar amendment has many environmental benefits; however, adoption has been slow. This raises the question of how to align the environmental benefits with commercial motivations to drive more widespread implementation. Here, we examine the role that government policy can play in acceler...

The United States appears less exposed to geopolitical risks affecting its oil supply than at any time since the relatively stable period preceding the widespread oil sector nationalizations of the 1970s. Energy prosperity in the US contrasts with a more fraught period for traditional energy exporting states where geopolitical challenges have been...

The transition to low-carbon fuel in the United States has spatial, temporal and economic aspects. Much of the economic literature on this topic has focused on aspects of the cost effectiveness of competing fuels. We expand this literature by simultaneously considering spatial, temporal and economic aspects in an optimization framework that integra...

While it is clear that biochar can alter soil N2O emissions, data on NO impacts are scarce. Reports range from 0-67% soil NO emission reductions post-biochar amendment. We use regional air quality and health cost models to assess how these soil NO reductions could influence U.S. air quality and health costs. We find that at 67% soil NO reduction, w...

It is often claimed that a difficulty of raising investment funds prevents promising new energy technologies from attaining commercial viability. We examine this issue using a dynamic intertemporal model of the displacement of fossil fuel energy technologies by non-fossil alternatives. Our model highlights the fact that since capital used to produc...

We use dynamic panel methods at the state level to understand how the increase in exploration and production of oil and natural gas since the mid 2000s has impacted employment. We find robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling do, in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest...

This paper demonstrates the value of integrating two highly spatially resolved models: the Rice World Gas Trade Model (RWGTM) of the natural gas sector and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model of the U.S. electricity sector. The RWGTM passes electricity-sector natural gas prices to the ReEDS model, while the ReEDS model returns elect...

The U.S. electricity generation mix is undergoing unprecedented change. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), monthly generation from natural gas plants exceeded that from coal for the first time ever in April 2015, and then again each of the final 6 months of 2015. This study explores dynamics related to natural...

The rapid development of both wind power and of shale gas has been receiving significant attention both in the media and among policy makers. Since these are competing sources of electricity generation, it is informative to investigate their relative merits regarding local job creation. We use a panel econometric model to estimate the historical jo...

This paper reviews recent developments in the production and use of unconventional natural gas in the United States with a focus on water and greenhouse gas emission implications. If unconventional natural gas in the U.S. is produced responsibly, transported and distributed with little leakage, and incorporated into integrated energy systems that a...

The upstream renaissance in the United States that has resulted from the successful application of new technologies in the exploration and development of shale gas has generated ripples through the global gas market. The US is soon to become a significant exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is remarkable given conventional wisdom just a...

Use of municipal solid waste (MSW) as fuel for electricity generation reduces landfill disposal and can mitigate air quality degradation associated with combustion of conventional fossil fuels. Co-combustion is a waste-to-energy technology that can use MSW and coal as co-fuels, offering potential energy recovery and reduced air emissions. This rese...

A comprehensive, integrated study of the reserve and production potential of the Barnett shale integrates engineering, geology, and economics into a numerical model that allows for scenario testing based on several technical and economic parameters. Implicit in RF analysis is an assumption about the shape and orientation of the drainage area. A plo...

The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at the University of Texas at Austin has conducted a comprehensive study of the reserve and production potential of the Barnett shale. It integrates engineering, geology, and economics into a numerical model that allows for scenario testing based on several technical and economic parameters. The study assesses n...

Several previous studies have found evidence that oil and natural gas prices in the United States are cointegrated. There is also evidence, however, that the relationship is unstable. One explanation is that technological changes alter the substitutability between natural gas and oil products.We reaffirm this finding, but also find evidence that th...

Conventional thinking just ten years ago was that the United States would become a major importer of liquefied natural gas. Yet, today the discussion has shifted to one of export potential, largely driven by the rapid development of shale gas resources. This has had dramatic implications not only for the US, but also for the rest of the world. In p...

Russia is a dominant supplier of natural gas, especially to Europe, and has the resources to become even more dominant in the future. Nevertheless, we show that RussiaÕs ability to influence the world natural gas market is limited in the longer term by competition from alternative suppliers.

On the basis of application of both data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier estimation applied to a panel of 78 firms, we present empirical evidence on the revenue efficiency of National Oil Companies (NOCs) and private international oil companies (IOCs). We find that with few exceptions, NOCs are less efficient than IOCs. In addition, mu...

Previously disconnected regional natural gas markets are becoming increasingly integrated, largely due to liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. Some factors are accelerating this trend, such as rapid demand growth, climate change policy, a desire to avoid transit country risks associated with pipelines, and seasonality in demand. However, other factor...

Models of the earth's climates indicate that accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could increase global temperatures in the latter decades of this century. These predictions depend in part on long range extrapolations of fossil fuel combustion. A calibrated model of world economic growth that allows for changes in the composition of out...

We present a model of the exploration and development activities of a National Oil Company (NOC), which uses similar technology to a private firm to extract a depletable resource. However, unlike the private firm, the NOC may have a wider range of objectives than maximizing the present value of profits. Specifically, we assume an objective function...

We investigate the relationship between the prices of natural gas and crude oil, and the factors that cause short run departures from the long run equilibrium price relationship. We find evidence that the link between natural gas and crude oil prices is indirect, acting through competition at the margin between natural gas and residual fuel oil. We...

We analyze the options available for Bolivia with regard to the exploitation of its natural gas resource base. While much of the commercial focus to date has been on developing delivery infrastructure and marketing supply to Brazil and Argentina, other options are available. In particular, producing and selling electricity to its neighbors may be e...

We analyze the options available for Bolivia with regard to the exploitation of its natural gas resource base. While much of the commercial focus to date has been on developing delivery infrastructure and marketing supply to Brazil and Argentina, other options are available. In particular, producing and selling electricity to its neighbors may be e...

Introduction The base case model, discussed in chapter 11, assumed uniform rates of return across countries but allowed for different rates of return on different categories of investment. Specifically, we assumed that pipeline investments were least risky, followed by LNG regasification and liquefaction terminals, and then by mining projects (or e...

Introduction Natural gas increased from roughly 19 percent of world primary energy demand in 1980 to about 23 percent in 2002 (EIA 2004) and is now produced and consumed in forty-three countries around the world. Moreover, the International Energy Agency (IEA) (IEA 2004) predicts that world natural gas demand will be about 90 percent higher by 2030...

This paper examines the effect of economic development on the demand for private motor vehicles for a panel of 28 countries. Utilising the concept of the user cost of capital and the notion that the demand for cars can become saturated, the authors develop a model of the relationship between economic development and per capita private car ownership...

We examine the relationship between economic development and energy demand. The paper identifies the development patterns that characterize particular economic sectors, and analyzes the effect of sector-specific energy demand growth rates on the composition of final energy demand. We also examine some of the associated policy implications. Industri...

The rapid expansion of industry at the outset of economic development and the subsequent growth of the transportation and residential and commercial sectors dictate both the rate at which energy demand increases and the composition of primary fuel sources used to meet secondary requirements. Each of these factors each has an impact on the pollution...

Controlling carbon dioxide emissions to reduce possible future global warming incurs costs now in the hope that future costs of uncertain size might be avoided. It is conceivable, however, that reducing car- bon dioxide emissions could impose costs in the future as well as now. Reducing fossil fuel combustion is a risky investment, justifiable only...