Kelly Caylor

University of California, Santa Barbara | UCSB · Bren School of Environmental Science and Management

Accurate and timely observations of individual‐scale transpiration are critical for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. Existing remote sensing methods for measuring transpiration lack the spatial resolution needed to resolve individual plants, and their sources of uncertainty are not well‐constrained. We present two novel approaches...

Agricultural supply chains play a crucial role in supporting food security in Africa. However, high-resolution supply chain information is often not available, which hinders our ability to determine which interventions in food supply chains would most enhance food security. In this study, we develop a high-resolution supply chain model for essentia...

Evapotranspiration regulates energy flux partitioning at the leaf surface, which in turn regulates leaf temperature. However, the mechanistic relationship between evapotranspiration and leaf temperature remains poorly constrained. In this study, we present a novel mechanistic model to predict leaf temperature as a linearized function of the evapora...

Smallholder agriculture is critical for current and future food security, yet quantifying the sources of smallholder yield variance remains a major challenge. Attributing yield variance to farmer management, as opposed to soil and weather constraints, is an important step to understanding the impact of farmer decision-making, in a context where sma...

In dryland ecosystems, vegetation within different plant functional groups exhibits distinct seasonal phenologies that are affected by the prevailing hydroclimatic forcing conditions. The seasonal variability of precipitation, atmospheric evaporative demand, and streamflow influences root-zone water availability to plants in water-limited environme...

CONTEXT Smallholder farmers in Africa are among those most impacted by climate change. Employing strategies such as planting early maturing or drought tolerant hybrid seeds is one common climate adaptive strategy for these households. However, seed choice has become increasingly complex for farmers. One way farmers look for clarity about seeds is t...

Intermittent and ephemeral streams in dryland environments support diverse assemblages of aquatic and terrestrial life. Understanding when and where water flows provide insights into the availability of water, its response to external controlling factors, and potential sensitivity to climate change and a host of human activities. Knowledge regardin...

Mapping the characteristics of Africa’s smallholder-dominated croplands, including the sizes and numbers of fields, can provide critical insights into food security and a range of other socioeconomic and environmental concerns. However, accurately mapping these systems is difficult because there is 1) a spatial and temporal mismatch between satelli...

Accurate and operational indicators of the start of growing season (SOS) are critical for crop modeling, famine early warning, and agricultural management in the developing world. Erroneous SOS estimates–late, or early, relative to actual planting dates–can lead to inaccurate crop production and food-availability forecasts. Adapting rainfed agricul...

The partitioning of evapotranspiration (ET) into surface evaporation (E) and stomatal-based transpiration (T) is essential for analyzing the water cycle and earth surface energy budget. Similarly, the partitioning of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide into respiration (R) and photosynthesis (P) is needed to quantify the controls on its...

Coastal marine ecosystems face a host of pressures from both offshore and land-based human activity. Research on terrestrial threats to coastal ecosystems has primarily focused on agricultural runoff, specifically showcasing how fertilizers and livestock waste create coastal eutrophication, harmful algae blooms, or hypoxic or anoxic zones. These im...

Significance Increased extreme heat exposure from both climate change and the urban heat island effect threatens rapidly growing urban settlements worldwide. Yet, because we do not know where urban population growth and extreme heat intersect, we have limited capacity to reduce the impacts of urban extreme heat exposure. Here, we leverage fine-reso...

Shifts in rainfall frequency and intensity can lead to heavy crop loss in rainfed agricultural systems. Small‐scale farmers who plant with limited resources need to carefully select management strategies that are well suited for their environment. Farmers must choose between planting higher‐yielding varieties that take longer to mature and lower‐yi...

The accuracy of weather forecasts has experienced remarkable improvements over the recent decades and is now considered important tools for developing the climate resilience of smallholder farmers, particularly as climate change upends traditional farming calendars. However, the effect of observations of climate change on the use of weather forecas...

Despite clear signals of regional impacts of the recent severe drought in California, e.g., within Califor-nian Central Valley groundwater storage and Sierra Nevada forests, our understanding of how this drought affected soil moisture and vegetation responses in lowland grasslands is limited. In order to better understand the resulting vulnerabilit...

Vegetation distribution, composition and health in arid regions are largely dependent on water availability controlled by climate, local topography and geology. Despite a general understanding of climatic and geologic drivers in plant communities, trends in plant responses to water distribution and storage across areas under different local control...

Irrigation is critical to sustain agricultural productivity in dry or semi-dry environments, and center pivots, due to their versatility and ruggedness, are the most widely used irrigation systems. To effectively use center pivot irrigation systems, producers require tools to support their decision-making on when and how much water to irrigate. How...

Soil moisture is highly variable in space and time, and deficits (i.e., droughts) play an important role in modulating crop yields. Limited hydroclimate and yield data, however, hamper drought impact monitoring and assessment at the farm field scale. This study demonstrates the potential of using field-scale soil moisture simulations to support hig...

Persisting gender inequities across political, economic, and public life have motivated global agendas to increase women’s leadership at all levels of society. Gender quotas offer one solution to encourage equitable gender representation in public decision-making by specifying a target number of women to serve on publicly-elected bodies. For natura...

Agriculture is expanding in tropical mountainous areas, yet its climatic effect is poorly understood. Here, we investigate how elevation regulates the biophysical climate impacts of deforestation over tropical mountainous areas by integrating satellite-observed forest cover changes into a high-resolution land–atmosphere coupled model. We show that...

Seasonal climate variability frequently undermines farm yields, reduces food availability, and lowers income. This is particularly evident among small-scale agricultural producers in both irrigated and non-irrigated agroecosystems in the Global South where maize cultivars constitute a critical component of food production. In these systems, farmers...

ContextTwo-fifths of Africans reside in urban areas with populations of less than 250,000. Projections estimate that by 2050 an additional one billion people will live in urban areas, causing an acceleration of growth for these smaller urban areas. While research and development have focused on primary cities with large populations, less is known a...

Semi‐arid riparian woodlands face threats from increasing extractive water demand and climate change in dryland landscapes worldwide. Improved landscape‐scale understanding of riparian woodland water use (evapotranspiration, ET) and its sensitivity to climate variables is needed to strategically manage water resources, as well as to create successf...

Despite clear signals of regional impacts of the recent severe drought in California within Central Valley groundwater storage and Sierra Nevada forests, our understanding of how this drought affected soil moisture and vegetation responses in lowland grasslands is limited. In order to better understand the resulting vulnerability of these landscape...

Soil moisture is highly variable in space, and its deficits (i.e. droughts) plays an important role in modulating crop yields and its variability across landscapes. Limited hydroclimate and yield data, however, hampers drought impact monitoring and assessment at the farmer field-scale. This study demonstrates the potential of field-scale soil moist...

CO 2 flux in dryland ecosystems is typically limited by soil carbon release, resulting in pulses of flux with precipitation and transitions between low and high moisture. Soil crack morphology, which shifts distinctly between these wet and dry periods, can introduce additional complexity to the magnitude and dynamics of CO 2 flux, though its full e...

Regional maps of vegetation structure are necessary for delineating species habitats and for supporting conservation and ecological analyses. A systematic approach that can discriminate a wide range of meaningful and detailed vegetation classes is still lacking for neotropical savannas. Detailed vegetation mapping of savannas is challenged by seaso...

Information and services delivered through mobile phones, ‘m-services', have transformative potential to provide rural African farmers with important agro-meteorological information. However, a greater understanding is needed regarding the types of m-services available to farmers, how farmers access that information, and possible factors affecting...

Remote sensing, or Earth Observation (EO), is increasingly used to understand Earth system dynamics and create continuous and categorical maps of biophysical properties and land cover, especially based on recent advances in machine learning (ML). ML models typically require large, spatially explicit training datasets to make accurate predictions. T...

Smallholder farmers undertake a number of strategies to cope with climate shocks in a community. The sharing of resources across households constitutes one coping mechanism when environmental shocks differentially impact households. This paper investigates commodity sharing dynamics among households in eight communities in an environmentally hetero...

The urban population in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to expand by nearly 800 million people in the next 30 years. How this rapid urban transition is affecting household-level urban food security, and reverberating into broader food systems, is poorly understood. To fill this gap, we use data from a 2017 survey (n = 668) of low- and middle-income...

Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change, including longer duration dry-spells and more frequent drought. There is a growing literature examining the psychological determinants of various climate adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers but little attention to how psychological factors v...

The role of remote sensing in understanding earth systems is growing rapidly, in part due to advances in new machine learning (ML) techniques. These approaches typically rely on large, spatially extensive training datasets to predict categories or continuous quantities. These training data are typically collected by digitizing polygons from high sp...

Africa is projected to add one billion urban residents by 2050. Yet developing sustainable solutions to tackle the host of challenges posed by rapid urban population growth is stymied by a lack municipality-level population data across the continent. To fill this gap, we intersect volunteered urban settlement data from OpenStreetMap with five synth...

Given the varying manifestations of climate change over time and the influence of climate perceptions on adaptation, it is important to understand whether farmer perceptions match patterns of environmental change from observational data. We use a combination of social and environmental data to understand farmer perceptions related to rainy season o...

The isotopic composition of water vapour provides integrated perspectives on the hydrological histories of air masses and has been widely used for tracing physical processes in hydrological and climatic studies. Over the last two decades, the infrared laser spectroscopy technique has been used to measure the isotopic composition of water vapour nea...

Accurate crop yield forecasts before harvest are crucial for providing early warning of agricultural losses, so that policy-makers can take steps to minimize hunger risk. Within-season surveys of farmers’ end-of-season harvest expectations are one important method governments use to develop yield forecasts. Survey-based methods have two potential l...

Dew deposition occurs in ecosystems worldwide, even in the driest deserts and in times of drought. Although some species absorb dew water directly via foliar uptake, a ubiquitous effect of dew on plant water balance is the interference of dew droplets with the leaf energy balance, which increases leaf albedo and emissivity and decreases leaf temper...

Foliar uptake of water from the surface of leaves is common when rainfall is scarce and non-meteoric water such as dew or fog is more abundant. However, many species in more mesic environments have hydrophobic leaves that do not allow the plant to uptake water. Unlike foliar uptake, all species can benefit from dew- or fog-induced transpiration sup...

To understand ecological phenomena, it is necessary to observe their behaviour across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Since this need was first highlighted in the 1980s, technology has opened previously inaccessible scales to observation. To help to determine whether there have been corresponding changes in the scales observed by modern ecolo...

Environmental monitoring plays a central role in diagnosing climate and management impacts on natural and agricultural systems; enhancing the understanding of hydrological processes; optimizing the allocation and distribution of water resources; and assessing, forecasting, and even preventing natural disasters. Nowadays, most monitoring and data co...

Environmental monitoring plays a central role in diagnosing climate and management impacts on natural and agricultural systems, enhancing the understanding hydrological processes, optimizing the allocation and distribution of water resources, and assessing, forecasting and even preventing natural disasters. Nowadays, most monitoring and data collec...

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics –i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understa...

To promote the advancement of novel observation techniques that may lead to new sources of information to help better understand the hydrological cycle, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) established the Measurements and Observations in the XXI century (MOXXI) Working Group in July 2013. The group comprises a growing comm...

Ecohydrological modeling studies in developing countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa, often face the problem of extensive parametrical requirements and limited available data. Satellite remote sensing data may be able to fill this gap, but require novel methodologies to exploit their spatio-temporal information that could potentially be incorporate...

Land cover maps increasingly underlie research into socioeconomic and environmental patterns and processes, including global change. It is known that map errors impact our understanding of these phenomena, but quantifying these impacts is difficult because many areas lack adequate reference data. We used a highly accurate, high-resolution map of So...

Foliar uptake of water from the surface of leaves is common when rainfall is scarce and non-meteoric water such as dew or fog is more abundant. However, many species in more mesic environments have hydrophobic leaves that do not allow the plant to uptake water. Unlike foliar uptake, all species can benefit from dew-or fog-induced transpiration supp...

The Cerrado biome is the most floristically diverse savanna in the world and the second largest biome over South America, located in the Central Plateau of Brazil. This biome is considered a conservation hotspot in respect to its biodiversity importance and rapid landscape transformation. The Cerrado is currently the major agricultural frontier in...

Spatial patterns of leaf water isotopes are challenging to predict because of the intricate link between vein and lamina water. Many models have attempted to predict these patterns, but to date most have focused on monocots with parallel veins. These provide a simple system to study, but do not represent the majority of plant species. Here, a new p...

Spatial patterns found in vegetated ecosystems exhibit different degrees of organization in stand density that can be interpreted as an indicator of ecosystem health. In semiarid environments, it is possible to observe transitions from over-dispersed individuals (e.g. an ordered lattice) to under-dispersed individuals (e.g. clumped points). These c...

Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions of the world are dominated by smallholder farms, which are characterized by small, heterogeneous, and often indistinct field patterns. In previous work, we developed an algorithm for mapping both smallholder and commercial agricultural fields that includes efficient extraction of a vast set of simple,...

Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions of the world are dominated by smallholder farms, which are characterized by small, heterogeneous, and often indistinct field patterns. In previous work, we developed an algorithm for mapping both smallholder and commercial agricultural fields that includes efficient extraction of a vast set of simple,...

Variations in triple oxygen isotopes have been used in studies of atmospheric photochemistry, global productivity and increasingly in studies of hydroclimate. Understanding the distribution of triple oxygen isotopes in plant waters is critical to studying the fluxes of oxygen isotopes between the atmosphere and hydrosphere, in which plants play an...