Keithly Jones

Keithly Jones
United States Department of Agriculture | USDA · Economic Research Service (ERS)

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47
Publications
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316
Citations

Publications

Publications (47)
Article
Full-text available
China's importance to the U.S. forestry sector and the disruptive effect of retaliatory tariffs raises questions about how U.S. forest products compete in the Chinese market. The goal of this study was to estimate China's lumber and log import demand and assess how tariffs affect the competitiveness of U.S. products compared to other exporting coun...
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This study utilizes a source-based demand systems model to estimate demand for imported poultry products in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), and to evaluate the impact that modifications of the Common External Tariff (CET) would have on the demand for poultry products from the United States, Brazil, Canada and the European Union. Own price elasti...
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In this special issue of Agribusiness: An International Journal we focus on emerging issues in global animal product trade, the theme of a conference hosted by the Economic Research Service (ERS), U.S. Department of Agriculture on September 27–28, 2012 in Washington, DC, in partnership with Farm Foundation, NFP, the Larry Combest Endowed Chair for...
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The impacts of implementing the Korea‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) on South Korea's dairy trade are assessed in this study based on empirical estimates of short‐run and long‐run source‐based import demand parameters for three major imported dairy products. These estimates were derived using the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) demand sys...
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In 2012, the media paid extra attention to lean finely textured beef (LFTB), an inexpensive lean beef product extracted from low-valued fatty trim. The media’s negative portrayal of LFTB as an unnecessary and unsavory additive to ground beef products corresponded with a spike in reports over a 6-month period. Since LFTB is often used in ground beef...
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The influence of food aid and remittances on West African food import demand is evaluated using a Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) model. Our results show that imports of oilseeds and the rest of the agricultural products category are highly price elastic, and that fruit and vegetables and dairy products are least responsive to price changes. Foo...
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The average dressed weight for barrows and gilts slaughtered in the United States has increased 23% since 1977, from an annual average of 163 lbs to 201 lbs in 2010. This measure of pork production includes pork produced from US born and raised hogs as well as hogs imported from Canada. This paper addresses technological change in US born and raise...
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The authors regret that the printed version of the above article contained a number of errors. The correct and final version follows. The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused. On page 36, first full paragraph, third sentence should read: ''To the extent that T captures technical change, e yn is a measure of the rate (percent...
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The non-linear Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System is used in estimating the impact of exchange rates on source-differentiated import demand for beef in the USA. We estimate scale, own and cross-price flexibilities for six major beef suppliers and the rest of the world, incorporating exchange rates exogenously. Results indicate that beef imports fro...
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Citrus fruits make up one-fifth of all fresh fruit consumed in the United States. Given the increasing importance of imported citrus in the diet of American consumers, it is perhaps surprising that no import demand analysis of U.S. citrus has been conducted. Using quarterly U.S. import data for six citrus commodities, we employed a demand systems m...
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The 2002 Farm Security and Rural Investment Act mandated that country-of-origin labeling (COOL) be applied to specific food commodities. Using revealed preference data for 1998–2006, a nonlinear AIDS model is used to estimate the demand for uncooked frozen, uncooked fresh, and precooked salmon to assess the impact of the legislation on consumer dem...
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The influence of food aid and remittances on West African food import demand is evaluated using a Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) model. Our results show that imports of oilseeds and the rest of the agricultural products category are highly price elastic, and that fruit and vegetables and dairy products are least responsive to price changes. Foo...
Article
This study empirically estimates the South Korean short-run and long-run import demand parameters for source-based dairy products and assess the impacts of the KORUS FTA on dairy product trade. These estimates were derived using a Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) demand system. The impact of the tariff reductions associated with the free trade ag...
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Using FAO data for 1961-2009, this study characterizes the trends in Caribbean food imports and uses the Central Bureau Statistics demand system to estimate import demand parameters. The findings and policy implications of the study are evaluated in the context of Caribbean food security concerns.
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This study examined U.S. demand for salmon imports differentiated by source (Canada, Chile, and the rest of the world [ROW]), product cut (fillets and other salmon products), and form (fresh and frozen). The Rotterdam model was used in estimation, and source-aggregation tests were performed to determine the significance of source differentiation in...
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The problems of pastoralist livestock marketing systems in East Africa are well-documented in the literature. They include poor transport infrastructure, inadequate market access and frequent rejection of animals at certain markets. Thus far, few studies have analyzed the effects of eliminating these problems. This study was based on household and...
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A programming problem is introduced which calculates efficiency scores for two jointly produced products. These scores, as well as Malmquist total factor productivity indices, were calculated and reported for both the crop and livestock sectors for 27 countries. Our two-score method allows us to determine whether technical change favors crops or li...
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The primary objective of this study was to assess the impact of catfish imports and tariffs on the U.S. catfish industry, with particular focus on the U.S. International Trade Commission ruling on Vietnam in 2003. Given the importance of Vietnam to the U.S. catfish market, it was assumed that catfish import prices would increase by 35 percent if th...
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A provision of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 requires country of origin labeling (COOL) for certain agricultural commodities. To comply with the law, producers, processors, and retailers face additional production costs associated with labeling, separating, and tracking commodities. Using estimated costs provided by the U.S. Depart...
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Dynamic demand systems have been employed in a number of studies to account for habit formation and inventory adjustments in demand. Few studies have attempted to provide a theoretical foundation for the dynamic demand structures employed. Recently, Bushehri (2003) showed how a generalized dynamic Rotterdam model could be derived from the neoclassi...
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This paper provided a theoretical framework for analyzing the relationship between federal indemnification and livestock biosecurity. Theoretical results show that the responsiveness of biosecurity to indemnity payments depends on a number of factors. First, the responsiveness of biosecurity will depend on the effectiveness of preventive measures i...
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Estimates of price and scale elasticities for U.S. consumed shrimp are derived using aggregate shrimp data differentiated by source country. Own-price elasticities for all countries had the expected negative signs, were statistically significant, and inelastic. The scale elasticities for all countries were positive and statistically significant at...
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As U.S. lamb imports increased relative to domestic production, and the relative share of chilled to frozen lamb imports increased, importers of chilled lamb have become less responsive to domestic and import prices, while the direct opposite is the case for frozen lamb imports. From 1990 to 2003, chilled lamb imports from Australia and New Zealand...
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Trade-related factors influencing the decline in domestic market share of U.S. red meats were investigated. The study are to examine the effects of relative meat price changes (domestic and imported), the relative U.S. dollar values and their volatilities, and the effect that BSE has had on U.S. red-meat trade. The results show that the relative me...
Article
Current dynamics in world dairy markets and the potential for global and domestic trade policy reform are bringing the U.S. dairy sector to a new crossroads as it faces competitive forces from outside its borders. Those forces—demand for new products by consumers in industrialized countries, changes in technology, rapid economic growth in emer...
Article
"United Kingdom (UK) demand for carnations by exporting country was estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model, and model estimates were used to assess the effects of EU preferential trade agreements on import demand. Of particular importance was how these agreements affected Colombian and Kenyan carnation exports to the UK, the se...
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Derived demand relationships among four weight categories of feeder cattle entering Texas feedlots and feed were examined using a Generalized McFadden dual cost function specified as an error correction model. Relationships among own- and cross-price elasticities provide evidence for at least two cattle feeding enterprises, feeding lightweight feed...
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Farm, wholesale and retail price relationships for U.S. hogs are analyzed. Price transmission estimates indicate partial adjustment in each market category when price changes in any other market. This implies imperfect price transmission between the market levels. Tests of Granger no-causality show causality in hog and pork markets.
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Though accounting for less than 1 percent of U.S. livestock industry receipts, sheep and goat operations are still important to the economies of several states in the Southern Plains, Mountain States and Pacific regions. Revenues from sales of lambs and culled ewes amount to more than three-fourths of the total receipts in the sheep industry. Howev...
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We divide countries into two technology categories: developed and developing. Agricultural efficiency within each technology category was calculated. Cross-category efficiency measures were developed and combined with own-category measures to develop a technical difference index. Results indicate convergence of efficiency within both categories but...
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Replaced with revised version of paper 02/11/04.
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The U.S. sheep industry has changed greatly since the end of World War II. Both sheep meat and wool production have seen rapid declines. So, too, have revenues and the number of sheep operations. The wool industry has suffered from increased use of synthetic fivers, which were found to be less expensive than wool and, when blended with natural fibe...
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Full-text available
"United Kingdom (UK) demand for carnations by exporting country was estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model, and model estimates were used to assess the effects of EU preferential trade agreements on import demand. Of particular importance was how these agreements affected Colombian and Kenyan carnation exports to the UK, the se...
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Full-text available
We estimated a wholesale demand system for beef, pork, lamb, chicken, and turkey using quarterly U.S. data and a dynamic, CBS system (Keller and Van Driel). The CBS system is a differential system, which means that it might be more appropriately applied in those situations where the data have unit roots. If there are unit roots, differencing the da...
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An output distance function conditional on the expansion of a second output is presented. These distance functions are used to calculate distinct relative Total Factor Productivity (TFP) scores for two jointly produced products-livestock and crops for 27 countries. From these, TFP growth and direction of growth are calculated.
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In this paper we evaluate the performance of a dynamic model of cattle replacement and culling decisions. We derive the price of cattle when it is treated as a unit of capital and evaluate various rates of adjustment of the cattle herd to determine the length of the cattle cycle. Replacement decision is modeled as the solution to a dynamic optimiza...
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Full-text available
"United Kingdom (UK) demand for carnations by exporting country was estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model, and model estimates were used to assess the effects of EU preferential trade agreements on import demand. Of particular importance was how these agreements affected Colombian and Kenyan carnation exports to the UK, the se...
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Full-text available
Seasonal unit-root testing and seasonal cointegration methods are employed to investigate the price transmission in U.S. shrimp markets. ARIMA and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) are used to identify the effect of catastrophic events on individual price series in one region and the spillover effects in the price series for other regions. Resu...

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