Keith Owen Fuglie

Keith Owen Fuglie
United States Department of Agriculture | USDA · Economic Research Service (ERS)

About

158
Publications
43,643
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4,919
Citations
Citations since 2017
31 Research Items
2498 Citations
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Introduction

Publications

Publications (158)
Article
Full-text available
Investors in international agricultural research seek sustainable agri-food technologies that can potentially serve multiple objectives, including economic growth, food security, and sustainable use of natural resources. We employ quantitative economic models to examine the potential multi-dimensional impacts of agricultural productivity gains in t...
Article
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The U.S. Agency for International Development has invested limited funds in international agricultural research through U.S. universities. We present a meta-analysis of impact case studies from this investment. The median net present value of economic impacts at purchasing power parity is PPP$8.4 billion compared to a cumulative investment of US$1....
Article
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Agriculture is responsible for 20%–25% of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), which result from production practices and land use conversion. Supply‐side approaches for reducing emissions from agriculture rely on emissions‐saving technological change and environmental protection of carbon‐rich areas. This study investigates how productivity...
Article
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Evidence of how resilience factors mitigate the adverse effects of shocks on individuals, households and communities is clearly established. However, such evidence at the macro level is limited, especially on the pace of structural transformation. This paper explores whether the growing incidence of terrorism, armed conflicts and natural disasters...
Presentation
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Over the last decades a wealth of information on Tropical Forage Genetic Resources has been collated and is now accessible to users ranging from farmers, development practitioners and researchers to decision makers and academia, e.g. through online tools such as Tropical Forages (www.tropicalforages.info). However, while genetic diversity is being...
Article
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Forage grasses and legumes are the principal source of nutrition for most ruminant livestock in developing countries. Raising yields of forage crops can increase the availability and affordability of livestock products as well as reduce pressure on increasingly scarce land resources by enabling greater herd densities on existing pasture. However, t...
Article
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In 2017–2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Policy Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service to estimate...
Article
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Raising agricultural productivity has been essential for global food security and conserving land. Now, research quantifies how climate change has slowed agricultural productivity growth around the world.
Article
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When water scarcity restricts agricultural production, expanding water resources is only one option to increase or maintain output; investments in research to raise productivity can also release constraints on growth. In this paper, we construct a model of optimal resource allocation with both public and private inputs in production—the public sect...
Research
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When water scarcity restricts agricultural production, expanding water resources is only one option to increase or maintain output; investments in research to raise land and water productivity can also release constraints on growth. This Policy Brief draws lessons from a recent study 1 of long-term growth in Egyptian agriculture over 1961-2016. The...
Article
The recent rise in caloric undernutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) demonstrates the continued relevance of the Malthusian footrace between food availability and population. Sluggish growth in farm productivity in SSA has brought to the fore the key role of agricultural technology in alleviating future food insecurity. We develop a model of techn...
Preprint
In 2017-2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Policy Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service to estimate...
Article
Full-text available
Investments in agricultural research and development (R&D) made over the next few decades will likely prove critical in offsetting adverse climate change impacts on the global food system. In this study, we offer cost estimates of public R&D‐led adaptation to climate change grounded in an explicit framework relating the flow of annual R&D expenditu...
Article
Full-text available
In this article, we employ Bayesian hierarchical modeling to better capture and communicate the uncertainties surrounding the transformation of U.S. public agricultural research and development (R&D) expenditures to knowledge capital stocks as well as its contribution to the historic growth of U.S. agricultural total factor productivity. Compared t...
Article
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Increasing the world's food supply has depended heavily on increasing agricultural productivity, which in turn depends on investments in research and development (R & D). This article synthesizes findings from more than 40 studies on how R & D investments affect agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in various parts of the world. The article...
Article
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Declining rates of growth in crop yields, slowing investment in agricultural research, and rising commodity prices has raised concerns of a general slowdown in global agricultural productivity. However, there is no evidence of a general slowdown in the rate of growth in agricultural output. Thus, for productivity to slow, input use in agriculture w...
Technical Report
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Investment in research is a primary driver of productivity growth in agriculture. However, in high-income countries, as agriculture’s contribution to national economies declines, many public agricultural research systems face stagnant or falling financial support while research costs continue to rise. Public spending on agricultural research and de...
Article
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In recent years, public agricultural R&D investment in high-income countries has grown considerably more slowly than public agricultural R&D in developing countries, private R&D for agricultural inputs, or private food R&D. Funding trends in these countries have resulted in part from structural changes in the economy, changes in general agricultura...
Article
The farm size and productivity debate has been limited by the focus on land or labor productivity, generally showing respective productivity advantages to smaller or larger sized farms. Our purpose is to provide new perspectives on the debate by bringing together evidence from a set of novel case studies in both rich and poor countries. Common to t...
Chapter
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Over the past several decades, the private sector has assumed a larger role in research and development (R&D) for food and agriculture. Private companies fund nearly all food processing R&D and perform a growing share of production-oriented R&D for agriculture. The willingness of private companies to invest in agricultural R&D has been influenced b...
Article
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This article reviews the current debate on whether U.S. agricultural productivity growth is slowing. It also assesses recent research on how productivity is related to long-term investment in research and development (R&D). It describes significant changes taking place in the U.S. agricultural research system, including the growing role of private...
Article
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The private sector is playing an important role in developing technologies to raise productivity in agriculture. This paper presents new estimates of private agricultural and food R&D spending trends over the past 25 years. Global private spending on agricultural R&D (excluding R&D by food industries) rose from $5.1billion in 1990 to $15.6billion b...
Article
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This paper develops a theoretical model to examine the relationship between the input elasticity of (technical) substitution and both farm total factor productivity and size. In the presence of ongoing technical change and its factor bias, the ‘income effect’ arising from farms' cost minimising behaviour enables them to increase productivity by sav...
Chapter
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M any national agricultural research systems (NARSs) in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) continue to face significant challenges in securing the necessary human and financial resources to deliver improved technologies to farmers. Despite comprising more than 10,000 scientists and an aggregate investment of more than 1.5 billion purchasing power par...
Chapter
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The US food and agriculture sector is innovative, competitive and export-oriented. Changes in national and global demand offer further opportunities for US agri-food products, although climate change and other resource constraints could create additional challenges, in particular in some regions. Maintaining high productivity growth, while improvin...
Article
Full-text available
The private sector has assumed a larger role in developing improved technology for food and agriculture, with private agricultural R&D spending growing faster than public agricultural R&D spending over the past several decades. Major drivers have been new commercial opportunities afforded by scientific advances and liberalization of agricultural in...
Chapter
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This book contains 21 chapters presenting the most comprehensive, accurate and informative view of the spread of improved crop cultivars in Africa south of Sahara. The importance of the diffusion and adoption of different crop cultivars and the impacts of the use of these improved cultivars are also discussed.
Article
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Rising prices of agricultural commodities have renewed concerns about constraints to agricultural productivity. To assess productivity trends, total factor productivity (TFP) is generally preferred to partial productivity indexes as an indicator of technical and efficiency changes because it is more closely related to the unit costs of production....
Article
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Food insecurity in the 76 low- and middle-income countries included in this report is expected to improve between 2013 and 2014. The 76 countries are classified by the World Bank as receiving or have received food aid and are experiencing or have experienced food insecurity. The number of food-insecure people is projected to fall 9 percent, from 53...
Article
Full-text available
Over the past several decades, the private sector has assumed a larger role in developing improved technology for food and agriculture. Private companies fund nearly all food processing research and development (R&D) and perform a growing share of production-oriented R&D for agriculture. In addition, institutional partnerships for public–private re...
Article
Full-text available
A study was conducted to find econometric evidence of complementarity between public and private agricultural research investments, with both sectors responsive to what the other sector is doing. A vector autoregression (VAR) model was used which includes disaggregated public and private R&D spending and noncommodity specific general science as wel...
Article
"Despite the Global Food Crisis of 2007-8, the coming famine hasn't happened yet. It is a looming planetary emergency...it is arriving even faster than climate change." That's the vision of famine that awaits us, says Australian science writer Julian Cribb. And he's far from alone. "The world is in transition from an era of food abundance to one of...
Article
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This article is drawn from Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Fuglie, Wang, and Ball. It is a review of agricultural productivity around the world, with an analysis of prices, population, and productivity over the past 50 years. In developing and transition countries, agricultural productivity growth has bee...
Article
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Agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains low and is falling farther behind other regions of the world. Although agricultural output growth in the region has accelerated since the 1990s, this has been primarily due to resource expansion rather than to higher productivity. Yet there is evidence that agricultural productivity grow...
Chapter
Full-text available
Meeting growing global demand for food, fiber, and biofuel requires robust investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) from both public and private sectors. This study examines global R&D spending by private industry in seven agricultural input sectors, food manufacturing, and biofuel and describes the changing structure of these indu...
Article
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Concentration in several global agricultural input industries has risen significantly; by 2009, the largest four firms in the crop seed, agricultural chemical, animal health, animal genetics/breeding, and farm machinery sectors accounted for more than 50 percent of global market sales in each sector.
Article
Innovations in farm organization, business arrangements, and production practices have allowed farmers to produce more with less. Fewer labor hours and less land are used today than 30 years ago, and practices such as the use of genetically engineered seeds and no-till have dampened increases in machinery, fuel, and pesticide use. Likely aided by t...
Article
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Led by seed biotechnology, private-sector spending in agricultural R&D grew 43% from 1994 to 2010.
Chapter
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This volume is written primarily for agricultural economists doing research on productivity. It includes discussions of the theoretical underpinnings of productivity measurement as well as the many practical considerations that go into translating this theory into actual measures of aggregated outputs and inputs. The unifying concept of agricultura...
Chapter
Full-text available
This volume is written primarily for agricultural economists doing research on productivity. It includes discussions of the theoretical underpinnings of productivity measurement as well as the many practical considerations that go into translating this theory into actual measures of aggregated outputs and inputs. The unifying concept of agricultura...
Chapter
Full-text available
This volume is written primarily for agricultural economists doing research on productivity. It includes discussions of the theoretical underpinnings of productivity measurement as well as the many practical considerations that go into translating this theory into actual measures of aggregated outputs and inputs. The unifying concept of agricultura...
Book
Full-text available
Increasing food prices have renewed concerns about long-run agricultural demand and supply in the global economy. This book looks at results, methods, and data on international agricultural productivity for a better understanding of long-run trends and the policies that determine them. By presenting an international assessment of total factor produ...
Article
Full-text available
This volume is written primarily for agricultural economists doing research on productivity. It includes discussions of the theoretical underpinnings of productivity measurement as well as the many practical considerations that go into translating this theory into actual measures of aggregated outputs and inputs. The unifying concept of agricultura...
Article
Full-text available
This volume is written primarily for agricultural economists doing research on productivity. It includes discussions of the theoretical underpinnings of productivity measurement as well as the many practical considerations that go into translating this theory into actual measures of aggregated outputs and inputs. The unifying concept of agricultura...
Book
Full-text available
Meeting growing global demand for food, fiber, and biofuel requires robust investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) from both public and private sectors. This report highlights the major findings of a study examining global R&D spending by private industry in seven agricultural input sectors, food manufacturing, and biofuel and des...
Article
Full-text available
Inorganic, synthetic fertilizer is a critical ingredient in the global food economy. In 2008, global consumption of the three main agricultural fertilizer nutrients—nitrogen (N), phosphate (P2O5), and potash (KCl, or potassium)— totaled 162 million metric tons (FAO). Nitrogen accounts for about 63 percent of the total tonnage of fertilizers applied...
Article
Full-text available
Agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa remains low and is falling further behind the rest of the world. Nevertheless, agricultural output growth for the region accelerated in the 1990s and if sustained could spur economic development and poverty reduction. This chapter combines production function and index number approaches while incorpor...
Chapter
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This book focuses on the 2007-2008 food price crisis and the ensuing financial and economic crisis (both globally and in sub-Saharan Africa), illustrating the problems using country case studies that cover their origins, effects on agriculture and rural poverty, and their underlying factors. The 13 chapters in this volume address several themes, al...
Article
Starch is a heterogeneous commodity used in the manufacture of myriad food and non- food products. In Asia, starch consumption shows a strong positive correlation with per capita income, indicating that starch demand will grow rapidly as countries in the region develop. Root and tuber crops (cassava, potato and sweetpotato) along with maize supply...