Katie Facer-Childs

• PhD
• Hydrologist at UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

This study evaluates the efficacy of bias correction (BC) and data assimilation (DA) techniques in refining hydrological model predictions. Both approaches are routinely used to enhance hydrological forecasts, yet there have been no studies that have systematically compared their utility. We focus on the application of these techniques to improve o...

This study evaluates the efficacy of bias-correction (BC) and data assimilation (DA) techniques in refining hydrological model predictions. Both approaches are routinely used to enhance hydrological forecasts, yet there have been no studies that have systematically compared their utility. We focus on the application of these techniques to improve o...

The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including the drought declared in summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting of a large sample of plausible weather sequences, can be used to create drought storylines and add value to existing approaches to water resources planning. In this study, the drivers of winter...

Hydrological drought is a serious issue globally, which is likely to be amplified by 21st century climate change. In the UK, the impacts of changes in river flow and groundwater drought severity in a future of climate change and higher water demand are potentially severe. Recent publication of a new nationally consistent set of river flow and groun...

Floods are the largest natural disaster currently facing the UK, whilst the incidents of droughts have increased in recent years. Floods and droughts can have devastating consequences on society, resulting in significant financial damage to the economy. Climate models suggest that precipitation and temperature changes will exacerbate future hydrolo...

This paper details the development and evaluation of the enhanced future FLows and Groundwater (eFLaG) dataset of nationally consistent hydrological projections for the UK, based on the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). The projections are derived from a range of hydrological models. For river flows, multiple models (Grid-to-Grid, PDM (Probab...

The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including the latest drought declared in summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting of a large sample of plausible weather sequences, can be used to add value to existing approaches to water resources planning. In this study, the drivers of winter rainfall in the Greate...

Hydrological drought is a serious issue globally which is likely to be amplified by 21st century climate change. In the UK, the impacts of changes in river flow and groundwater drought severity in a future of climate change and higher water demand are potentially severe. Recent publication of a new nationally-consistent set of river flow and ground...

Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. The UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts under climate change. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change often rely solely on global climate model (GCM) projections following different emission scena...

Much research has been carried out on the possible impacts of climate change for UK river flows. Catchment and national-scale studies since the early 1990s are here categorized into four modelling approaches: “top-down” GCM (Global Climate Model)-driven and probabilistic approaches and “bottom-up” stylised and scenario-neutral approaches. Early stu...

This paper presents an ‘enhanced future FLows and Groundwater’ (eFLaG) dataset of nationally consistent hydrological projections for the UK, based on the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). The hydrological projections are derived from a range of river flow models (Grid-to-Grid, PDM, GR4J and GR6J), to provide an indication of hydrological mode...

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Hydrological droughts occur in all climate zones and can have severe impacts on society and the environment. Understanding historical drought occurrence and quantifying severity is crucial for underpinning drought risk assessments and developing drought management plans. However, hydrometric records are often short and capture only a limited range...

Simulations of water fluxes at high spatial resolution that consistently cover historical observations, seasonal forecasts, and future climate projections are key to providing climate services aimed at supporting operational and strategic planning, and developing mitigation and adaptation policies. The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-...

Hydrological models can provide estimates of streamflow pre- and post-observations, which enable greater understanding of past hydrological behaviour, and potential futures. In this paper, a new multi-objective calibration method was derived and tested for 303 catchments in the UK, and the calibrations were used to reconstruct river flows back to 1...

The open-source programming language R has gained a central place in the hydrological sciences over the last decade, driven by the availability of diverse hydro-meteorological data archives and the development of open-source computational tools. The growth of R's usage in hydrology is reflected in the number of newly published hydrological packages...

Hydrological droughts occur in all climate zones and can have severe impacts on society and the environment. Understanding historical drought occurrence and quantifying severity is crucial for underpinning drought risk assessments and the developing drought management plans. However, hydrometric records are often short and capture only a limited ra...

There exists an increasing need to understand the impact of climate change on the hydrological extremes of flood and drought, collectively referred to as ‘hydro-hazards’. At present, current methodology are limited in their scope, particularly with respect to inadequate representation of the uncertainty in the hydroclimatological modelling chain....

The open-source programming language R has gained a central place in the hydrological sciences over the last decade, driven by the availability of diverse hydro-meteorological data archives and the development of open-source computational tools. The growth of R's usage in hydrology is reflected in the number of newly published hydrological packages...

Hydrological models can provide estimates of streamflow pre- and post- observations, which enable greater understanding of past hydrological behaviour, and potential futures. In this paper, a new multi-objective calibration method was derived and tested for 303 catchments in the UK, and the calibrations were used to reconstruct river flows back to...

The uncertainties in scientific studies for climate risk management can be investigated at three levels of complexity: “ABC”. The most sophisticated involves “Analyzing” the full range of uncertainty with large multi-model ensemble experiments. The simplest is about “Bounding” the uncertainty by defining only the upper and lower limits of the likel...

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a necessary input data for most hydrological models and is often needed at a daily time step. An accurate estimation of PET requires many input climate variables which are, in most cases, not available prior to the 1960s for the UK, nor indeed most parts of the world. Therefore, when applying hydrological model...

Skilful hydrological forecasts at sub-seasonal to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in water resources management, hydropower operations, and agriculture, especially during drought conditions. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in t...

This dataset is model output from the GR4J lumped catchment hydrology model. It provides 500 model realisations of daily river flow, in cubic metres per second (cumecs, m3/s), for 303 UK catchments for the period between 1891-2015. The modelled catchments are part of the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) (https://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/) and provide good...

This dataset contains the Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI) data for 303 catchments across the United Kingdom from 1891 to 2015. The SSI is a drought index based on the cumulative probability of a given monthly mean streamflow occurring for a given catchment. Here, the SSI is calculated for the following accumulation periods: 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 a...

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) is a necessary input data for most hydrological models and is usually needed at a daily or shorter time-step. An accurate estimation of PET requires many input climate variables which are in most cases not available prior to the 1960s for the UK, nor indeed most parts of the world. Therefore, when applying hydrolo...

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by...

Skilful hydrological forecasts at sub-seasonal to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in water resources management, hydropower operations, and agriculture, especially during drought conditions. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in t...

Sound water policy and management rests on sound hydrometeorological and ecological data. Conversely, unrepresentative, poorly collected, or erroneously archived data introduce uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate, and direction of environmental change, in addition to undermining confidence in decision‐making processes. Unfortunately, data bia...

As projections of future climate raise concerns over water availability and extreme hydrological events, global hydrology models are increasingly being employed to better understand our global water resources and how they may be affected by climate change. Being a relatively recent development in hydrological science, global hydrology modelling has...

As projections of future climate raise concerns over water availability and extreme hydrological events, global hydrology models are increasingly being employed to better understand our global water resources and how they may be affected by climate change. Being a relatively recent development in hydrological science, global hydrology modelling has...