Katherine Mary Elizabeth Turner

Katherine Mary Elizabeth Turner
University of Bristol | UB · Bristol Veterinary School

PhD Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London

About

165
Publications
31,968
Reads
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4,698
Citations
Citations since 2017
82 Research Items
3257 Citations
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Introduction
Katy Turner I am an infectious disease epidemiologist and I use a variety of mathematical, economic and statistical techniques to try and better understand how infections are spread and how they can be controlled. I work mainly on bacterial infections (chlamydia and gonorrhoea), zoonoses and antimicrobial resistance. I held an NIHR post doctoral fellowship (2009-2014) and I aim to better inform public health policy decisions about infection control.
Additional affiliations
September 2013 - August 2017
University of Bristol
Position
  • University of Bristol
January 2009 - present
University of Bristol
April 2005 - December 2006
Health Protection Agency
Position
  • Mathematical Modeller

Publications

Publications (165)
Article
Full-text available
To estimate the costs and benefits of clinical pathways incorporating a point of care (POC) nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for chlamydia and gonorrhoea in genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics compared with standard off-site laboratory testing. We simulated 1.2 million GUM clinic attendees in England. A simulation in Microsoft Excel was deve...
Article
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To compare the cost, cost effectiveness, and sex equity of different intervention strategies within the English National Chlamydia Screening Programme. To develop a tool for calculating cost effectiveness of chlamydia control programmes at a local, national, or international level. An economic and mathematical modelling study with cost effectivenes...
Article
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The program eBURST uses multilocus sequence typing data to divide bacterial populations into groups of closely related strains (clonal complexes), predicts the founding genotype of each group, and displays the patterns of recent evolutionary descent of all other strains in the group from the founder. The reliability of eBURST was evaluated using po...
Article
To investigate whether opiate substitution therapy (OST) and needle and syringe programmes (NSP) can reduce hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among injecting drug users (IDUs). Meta-analysis and pooled analysis, with logistic regression allowing adjustment for gender, injecting duration, crack injecting and homelessness. Six UK sites (Birmingham...
Article
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The evolution of any sexually transmitted organism will be influenced by prevailing epidemiological interactions. The optimum strategy for an organism to overcome treatment, either through drug resistance or cryptic infections, depends upon whether the method for identifying patients is passive (treating symptoms alone favours asymptomatic organism...
Article
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Introduction Diagnoses of gonorrhoea in England rose by 26% between 2018 and 2019. Recent evidence that a vaccine against meningococcal B disease currently offered to infants in the UK (4CMenB) could additionally protect (with 31% efficacy) against gonorrhoea has led to renewed hope for a vaccine. A Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial of 4CMenB vaccinat...
Article
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Antibiotic use (ABU) plays an important role in the proliferation of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Global antimicrobial consumption in food production is projected to rise by 67% from 2010 to 2030, but available estimates are limited by the scarcity of ABU data and absence of global surveillance systems. WHO-Southeast Asia (SEA) is at high risk o...
Article
Background Managing high levels of acute COVID-19 bed occupancy can affect the quality of care provided to both affected patients and those requiring other hospital services. Mass vaccination has offered a route to reduce societal restrictions while protecting hospitals from being overwhelmed. Yet, early in the mass vaccination effort, the possible...
Article
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Objectives Online testing for STIs may help overcome barriers of traditional face-to-face testing, such as stigma and inconvenience. However, regulation of these online tests is lacking, and the quality of services is variable, with potential short-term and long-term personal, clinical and public health implications. This study aimed to evaluate on...
Article
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We report a survey (August 2017 to March 2018) and risk factor analysis of faecal carriage of antibacterial-resistant (ABR) Escherichia coli in 223 16-week-old dogs in the United Kingdom. Raw feeding was associated with the presence of fluoroquinolone-resistant (FQ-R) E. coli and those resistant to tetracycline, amoxicillin, and streptomycin, but n...
Article
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Purpose: We aimed to review available data on the incidence of herpes simplex virus (HSV) keratitis and other HSV ocular disease and to estimate the global burden of HSV ocular disease. Methods: We searched Medline and Embase databases to October 2020 for studies reporting on the incidence of HSV ocular disease. Study quality was evaluated using...
Article
Objectives As most chlamydia cases are asymptomatic, regular testing and timely management may be necessary for control. We aimed to determine the preferences of people living in Hong Kong for chlamydia testing and management services. Methods An online panel of sexually active individuals living in Hong Kong completed the survey with two discrete...
Article
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Cattle are broadly deemed a source of Coxiella burnetii; however, evidence reinforcing their role in human infection is scarce. Most published human Q fever outbreaks relate to exposure to small ruminants, notably goats. Anti-phase II C. burnetii IgG and IgM were measured by indirect fluorescent antibody tests in 27 farm and veterinary diagnostic l...
Article
Without timely assessments of the number of COVID-19 cases requiring hospitalisation, healthcare providers will struggle to ensure an appropriate number of beds are made available. Too few could cause excess deaths while too many could result in additional waits for elective treatment. As well as supporting capacity considerations, reliably project...
Article
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Background Our primary aim was to test whether cattle-associated fluoroquinolone-resistant (FQ-R) Escherichia coli found on dairy farms are closely phylogenetically related to those causing bacteriuria in humans living in the same 50 × 50 km geographical region suggestive of farm–human sharing. Another aim was to identify risk factors for the prese...
Article
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Background Due to rising numbers of STI diagnosis and increasing prevalence of antimicrobial resistance, we explored trends in STI testing frequency and diagnoses, alongside sexual decision making and attitudes concerning condom use and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) at a large urban UK sexual health clinic. Methods We examined 66 528 electro...
Article
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Controlling COVID-19 transmission in universities poses challenges due to the complex social networks and potential for asymptomatic spread. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on realistic mixing patterns and evaluated alternative mitigation strategies. We predict, for plausible model parameters, that if asymptomatic cases are half...
Preprint
Full-text available
Synopsis Background Our primary aim was to test whether cattle-associated fluoroquinolone-resistant (FQ-R) Escherichia coli found on dairy farms were a significant cause of bacteriuria in humans living in the same 50 × 50 km geographical region located in South West England. Another aim was to identify risk factors for the presence of FQ-R E. coli...
Article
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Despite being among the largest and most charismatic species in the marine environment, considerable gaps remain in our understanding of the behavioural ecology of manta rays (Mobula alfredi, M. birostris). Manta rays are often sighted in association with an array of smaller hitchhiker fish species, which utilise their hosts as a sanctuary for shel...
Preprint
Full-text available
Objectives: Online testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) may contribute to overcoming barriers to traditional testing such as stigma and inconvenience. However, regulation of these tests is lacking, and the quality of services is variable, with potential short- and long-term personal, clinical and public health implications. This study...
Conference Paper
Background As most chlamydia cases are asymptomatic, regular screening and timely management is important for chlamydia control. We aimed to determine the preferences of people living in Hong Kong for chlamydia testing and management services. Methods An online panel (hosted by Toluna) of sexually active individuals living in Hong Kong completed a...
Article
Background: Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risk. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic-transmission model. Setting: WHO regions. Methods: We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV tran...
Article
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University students have unique living, learning and social arrangements which may have implications for infectious disease transmission. To address this data gap, we created CONQUEST (COroNavirus QUESTionnaire), a longitudinal online survey of contacts, behaviour, and COVID-19 symptoms for University of Bristol (UoB) staff/students. Here, we analy...
Article
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Objective To develop a tool predicting individualised treatment for gonorrhoea, enabling treatment with previously recommended antibiotics, to reduce use of last-line treatment ceftriaxone. Design A modelling study. Setting England and Wales. Participants Individuals accessing sentinel health services. Intervention Developing an Excel model whi...
Preprint
Full-text available
We report a survey (August 2017 to March 2018) and risk factor analysis of faecal carriage of antibacterial-resistant (ABR) Escherichia coli in 223 sixteen-week-old dogs in the United Kingdom. Raw feeding was associated with the presence of E. coli resistant to fluoroquinolones, tetracycline, amoxicillin, and streptomycin, but not to cefalexin or c...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China, over a one- and five-year time horiz...
Article
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Background: HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has helped reduce new HIV infections. However bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) have increased amongst PrEP users. We examined PrEP knowledge, access and risk perceptions in an age of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Methods: An online anonymous survey was distributed to all cisgender...
Preprint
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Introduction Contact patterns are an important determinant of infection transmission. CONQUEST (COroNavirus QUESTionnaire) is an online survey of contacts for University of Bristol (UoB) staff and students. Results from 23/06/2020-24/11/2020 are used to investigate contact patterns among staff/students throughout various UK COVID-19 guidance period...
Article
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Objectives Antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major global health security threat, with a disproportionate burden on lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs). It is not understood how ‘One Health’, where human health is co-dependent on animal health and the environment, might impact the burden of ABR in LMICs. Thailand's 2017 “National Strategic...
Article
Introduction In the last decade diagnoses of most STIs have risen among men who have sex with men (MSM). Although a significant proportion of this is likely due to increased STI screening, understanding the role of behavioural drivers remains critical. We measure the associations between stimulant use to enhance and prolong sexual experiences (chem...
Article
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Objectives To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West England (SW) as an example case. Design Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical model. Latin hype...
Article
Little is known about the drivers of critically important antibacterial resistance in species with zoonotic potential present on farms (e.g. CTX-M β-lactamase-positive Escherichia coli). We collected samples – monthly, between January 2017 and December 2018 - on 53 dairy farms in South West England along with data for 610 variables concerning antib...
Article
Full-text available
UK universities re-opened in September 2020, amidst the coronavirus epidemic. During the first term, various national social distancing measures were introduced, including banning groups of >6 people and the second lockdown in November; however, outbreaks among university students occurred. We aimed to measure the University of Bristol staff and st...
Preprint
Full-text available
CONQUEST (COroNavirus QUESTionnaire) is an online survey of contacts, behaviour, and COVID-19 symptoms for University of Bristol (UoB) staff/students. We analysed survey results from the start of the 2020/2021 academic year, prior to the second national lockdown (14/09/2020-01/11/2020), where COVID-19 outbreaks led to lockdown of some student halls...
Article
Full-text available
Coxiella burnetii is an obligate intracellular zoonotic bacterium that causes Q fever. Ruminants, including cattle, are broadly known to be reservoirs for this bacterium. Since 2006, many research groups have evaluated the herd-level prevalence of C. burnetii in cattle by molecular techniques on composite milk samples. This study explored the globa...
Article
Objectives: To assess the cost-effectiveness of universal repeat screening for syphilis in late pregnancy, compared with the current strategy of single screening in early pregnancy with repeat screening offered only to high-risk women. Design: A decision tree model was developed to assess the incremental costs and health benefits of the two screeni...
Preprint
Full-text available
Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China. Methods Regional data from China indi...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background. Neisseria gonorrhoeae (gonorrhoea) and antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) gonorrhoea infections disproportionately affect men who have sex with men (MSM). Vaccine development is challenging, but a N. meningitidis (group B) vaccine given to children and young adults was associated with a ca. 30% reduction in gonorrhoea diagnoses. We investiga...
Preprint
Full-text available
Managing COVID-19 within a university setting presents unique challenges. At the start of term, students arrive from geographically diverse locations and potentially have higher numbers of social contacts than the general population, particularly if living in university halls of residence accommodation. Mathematical models are useful tools for unde...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Re-opening universities while controlling COVID-19 transmission poses unique challenges. UK universities typically host 20,000 to 40,000 undergraduate students, with the majority moving away from home to attend. In the absence of realistic mixing patterns, previous models suggest that outbreaks associated with universities re-opening ar...
Article
Objectives: To characterize putative AmpC-hyperproducing third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli from dairy farms and their phylogenetic relationships; to identify risk factors for their presence; and to assess evidence for their zoonotic transmission into the local human population. Methods: Proteomics was used to explain differences i...
Preprint
Full-text available
Objectives: To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics, for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West of England (SW) as an example case. Design: Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) deterministic compartmental math...
Preprint
Full-text available
Introduction Antimicrobial resistance (AMR), particularly antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major global health security threat projected to cause over ten million human deaths annually by 2050. There is a disproportionate burden of ABR within lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but it is not well understood how 'One Health' drivers, wher...
Article
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Objective: To generate global and regional estimates for the prevalence and incidence of herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 1 and type 2 infection for 2016. Methods: To obtain data, we undertook a systematic review to identify studies up to August 2018. Adjustments were made to account for HSV test sensitivity and specificity. For each World Health...
Article
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Introduction Herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection can cause painful, recurrent genital ulcer disease (GUD), which can have a substantial impact on sexual and reproductive health. HSV-related GUD is most often due to HSV type 2 (HSV-2), but may also be due to genital HSV type 1 (HSV-1), which has less frequent recurrent episodes than HSV-2. The glob...
Article
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Introduction Young people aged 16 to 24 have the highest prevalence of genital chlamydia and gonorrhoea compared with other age groups and re-infection rates following treatment are high. Long-term adverse health effects include subfertility and ectopic pregnancy, particularly among those with repeated infections. We developed the safetxt intervent...
Article
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Background: A 2017 systematic review and meta-analysis of 55 prospective studies found the adjusted risk of HIV acquisition to be at least tripled in individuals with herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection. We aimed to assess the potential contribution of HSV-2 infection to HIV incidence, given an effect of HSV-2 on HIV acquisition. Method...
Preprint
Full-text available
Objectives: To characterise putative AmpC hyper-producing 3rd generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli from dairy farms and their phylogenetic relationships as well as to identify risk factors for their presence; to assess evidence for their zoonotic transmission into the local human population Methods: Proteomics was used to explain differences...
Preprint
Full-text available
Little is known about the drivers of critically important antibacterial resistance in species with zoonotic potential present on farms (e.g. CTX-M □-lactamase-positive Escherichia coli ). Here, we collected samples, monthly over a two-year period, on 53 dairy farms in the South West of England, and data for 610 variables concerning antimicrobial us...
Article
Background Antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) gonorrhoea is a global public health threat. Discriminatory point-of-care tests (POCT) to detect drug sensitivity are under development, enabling individualised resistance-guided therapy. Methods: An individual-based dynamic transmission model of gonorrhoea infection in MSM living in London has been develo...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Background There is currently considerable interest the complex relationship between PrEP and STI incidence. Our Challenges and Opportunities of PrEP (CHOP) study uses qualitative and quantitative methods to ascertain the changes in behaviour and STI rates in high risk men/transgender/nonbinary persons who have sex with men (MSM/TPSM) before and af...
Conference Paper
Background Antimicrobial resistant (AMR) gonorrhoea is a global public health threat. Diagnoses of gonorrhoea have increased in England over the last decade. Guidelines in UK now recommend single dose ceftriaxone, so preserving the efficacy of ceftriaxone is essential. In England, over half of tested isolates remain sensitive to previously recommen...
Conference Paper
Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by Neisseria gonorrhoeae (gonorrhoea) and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is common. Gonorrhoea vaccine development is challenging, but a N. meningitidis (group B) vaccine might have reduced gonorrhoea incidence by ≈30%. This study aims to investigate the impact of vaccinatio...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Microbial point-of-care testing (POCT) has potential to revolutionise clinical care. Understanding prognostic value of microbes identified from the upper respiratory tract (a convenient sampling site) is a necessary first step to understand potential for upper respiratory tract POCTs in assisting antimicrobial treatment decisions for r...
Article
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Objectives: The National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP) in England opportunistically screens eligible individuals for chlamydia infection. Retesting is recommended three3 months after treatment following a positive test result, but no guidance is given on how local areas should recall individuals for retesting. Here , we compare cost estimat...
Article
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Background Online testing for sexually transmitted infections has a lower unit cost than testing in clinical services and economic analysis has focused on the cost per test and cost per diagnosis in clinics and online. However, online services generate new demand for testing and shift activity between services, requiring system-level analysis to ef...
Article
Full-text available
Electrocution from power infrastructure threatens many primate species, yet knowledge of effective evidence-based mitigation strategies is limited. Mitigation planning requires an understanding of the spatial distribution of electrocutions to prioritize high-risk areas. In Diani, a coastal Kenyan town, electrocution is an important cause of death f...
Article
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Background: Regular testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is important to maintain sexual health. Self-sampling kits ordered online and delivered in the post may increase access, convenience, and cost-effectiveness. Sexual health economies may target limited resources more effectively by signposting users toward Web-based or face-to-f...
Article
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Objectives Online services for self-sampling at home could improve access to STI testing; however, little is known about those using this new modality of care. This study describes the characteristics of users of online services and compares them with users of clinic services. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of routinely collected...
Article
Online services for self-sampling at home could improve access to STI testing; however, little is known about those using this new modality of care. This study describes the characteristics of users of online services and compares them with users of clinic services. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of routinely collected data on STI testing...
Article
Full-text available
Background Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests (NAATs) are the recommended test type for diagnosing Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia). However, less sensitive diagnostic methods—including direct immunofluorescence (IF) and enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA)—remain in use in lower resourced settings. We estimate the risk of pelvic inflammatory disease (...
Data
Chlamydia tests in Denmark by test type (NAAT and non-NAAT), 1991–2009. NAAT, Nucleic Acid Amplification Test. (TIF)
Data
Description of chlamydia test type in the overall cohort by age at test (single year categories) and laboratory area (six categories). (PDF)