Kasper M. Hansen

Kasper M. Hansen
University of Copenhagen · Department of Political Science

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51
Publications
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1,357
Citations

Publications

Publications (51)
Article
Full-text available
Scholars have long noted that couples are more likely to vote compared to individuals who live alone, and that partners' turnout behavior is strongly correlated. This study examines a large administrative dataset containing detailed information about validated turnout and the timing of individuals moving in together, and finds evidence of a substan...
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Across European Parliament, local and general elections in Denmark between half and three quarters of voters in households with multiple voters cast their vote within a minute of another household member. This finding, revealed using data from a time-stamped voter panel covering more than two million Danish voters, establishes that many families vi...
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Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well a...
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The study utilizes evidence from the Danish 2007 municipal reform to inquire into the relationship between municipal amalgamations and voter turnout, that is, the classical discussion on size and democracy. The Danish municipal reform is particularly suited for investigating the relationship as a large number of units were merged due to reasons tho...
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Citizens who abstain from voting in consecutive elections and inequality in turnout in democratic elections constitute a challenge to the legitimacy of democracy. Applying the law of dispersion, which stipulates higher levels of turnout and higher levels of equality in turnout are positively related, we study turnout patterns across different types...
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Becoming a parent is a profound change in one’s life that likely has consequences for political mobilization. This paper focuses on the earliest stages of parenthood, which have rarely been theorized nor empirically investigated. Close to childbirth, there may be substantial demobilizing effects due to hospital stays, immediate childcare responsibi...
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Through two large GOTV field experiments in two different elections, we investigate the spillover effect to other household members and family members outside the household. We mobilized young voters with cell phone text messages, a campaign tactic unlikely to be observed by other persons than the treated. The direct effect varied but approximately...
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Declining levels of turnout are a problem in European elections. Are Get Out The Vote campaigns the solution to the problem? While many studies have investigated such campaigns in the US, little is known about their effect in Europe. The article presents a field experiment in which encouragement to vote in an upcoming Danish election is delivered t...
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This article investigates how election information such as opinion polls can influence voting intention. The bandwagon effect claims that voters ‘float along’: a party experiencing increased support receives more support, and vice versa. Through a large national survey experiment, evidence is found of a bandwagon effect among Danish voters. When vo...
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Based on findings from the literature on campaign effects on the one hand, and the literature on European Parliament elections on the other, we propose a model of European Parliamentary elections in which the campaign shift the calculus of electoral support, making differences in national political allegiances less important and attitudes about the...
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Despite the widespread scholarly attention given to get-out-the-vote tactics the recent one and a half decade, few have studied the effect of short text messages (SMS) on voter turnout, and no previous such study has been conducted outside the US. We analyze four SMS experiments with more than 300,000 voters conducted in relation to two elections i...
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A vast amount of experimental evidence suggests that get-out-the-vote encouragements delivered through door-to-door canvassing have large effects on turnout. Most of the existing studies have been conducted in the United States, and are inspiring European mobilization campaigns. This article explores the empirical question of whether the American f...
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Similar to all other types of information, public opinion polls can influence public opinion. We present two hypotheses to understand how polls affect public opinion: the bandwagon and the underdog effect. The bandwagon effect claims that voters “jump on the bandwagon,” which means that if a party is gaining in the polls, the party will gain additi...
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Recent findings from the US indicate a clear positive causal effect of past eligibility on voting in subsequent elections. Based on individual-level register data from four elections held in Denmark and Finland, we find that past eligibility either decreases voting propensity or has a zero effect among young voters. The hype associated with the fir...
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Utilizing a large and unique dataset composed of government records, we study the widely contested effect of co-ethnic residential concentrations on voter turnout. Non-Western immigrants are moderately affected by the concentration of co-ethnic voters in their neighborhoods. As the local concentration of same-ethnicity voters increases, so does the...
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The minimal effect theory of campaign studies stipulates that intense political competition during campaigns assures and reinforces the initial party choice of the electorate. We find that this reinforcement is two-fold. During the campaign, the party preference of the voters’ in-group party increases while the party preference of the voters’ out-g...
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Given the importance of issue competition in aWest European context and the growing use of Facebook in elections, this paper studies how politicians use Facebook to shape the campaign agenda.We analyze the issues addressed in 6,388 Facebook posts by candidates in the Danish 2011 parliamentary election. A limited share of Facebook updates is dedicat...
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Democratic institutions often do not evaluate their instruments. By working closely with authorities, we developed a field experiment to examine an initiative to increase voter turnout among 18-year-olds that had not previously been evaluated. Particular attention was paid to developing an appropriate program theory and to designing the evaluation...
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Comparing performance between countries is both a theoretically and intuitively useful yardstick for voters. Cross-national comparisons provide voters with heuristics that are less cognitively demanding, less ambiguous, and less uncertain than solely national, absolute performance measurements. We test this proposition using a unique, choice experi...
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Is there a relationship between party leader gender and voters' assessments? The answer is ‘yes’ according to theses on gender identity and stereotyping. A voter survey during the 2011 Danish general election allows for a comprehensive analysis of a less likely case with four male and four female party leaders. Female party leaders are assessed mor...
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We set out to analyze the application and effect of cyber-campaigning among candidates at the 2011 Danish general election campaign in order to provide hard evidence on whether new technologies are electorally decisive, or whether traditional offline campaigning still makes sense. First, both Web sites and Facebook sites are popular among candidate...
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Election campaigns are more than simple competitions for votes; they also represent an opportunity for voters to become politically knowledgeable and engaged. Using a large-scale Web panel (N ≈ 5,000), we track the development of political knowledge, internal efficacy, and external efficacy among voters during the 2011 Danish parliamentary election...
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Do public employees vote more frequently than private employees? The turnout of public employees has been of central interest to public choice scholars for almost a century. Utilizing a government records dataset that is not subject to over-reporting and differential social desirability bias, we find that public employees voted 11–12 percentage poi...
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Although political scandals receive unprecedented attention in the contemporary media, the knowledge of political scientists regarding the consequences of such scandals remains limited. On the basis of two nationally representative survey experiments, we investigate whether the impact of scandals depends on the traits of the politicians involved. W...
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Recent studies have indicated that, contrary to common belief, the relationship between age and turnout among the youngest eligible individuals is not monotonically positive, but rather strongly negative – at least for the first few years of adulthood. With a unique dataset from government records for more than 145,000 young adults, we offer a poss...
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The Western population is growing older. Nevertheless, few studies examine the manner in which seniors are gradually demobilized from voting, partly because they are difficult to reach with surveys. Using a unique government records dataset of the actual turnout from the 2009 Danish municipal elections, we show how turnout for seniors falls more th...
Article
Highlights ► Turnout declines during the first years of eligibility. ► The relationship between age and turnout has a shape of a roller-coaster. ► This pattern can be detected only when using large scale data sets.
Article
Electoral turnout has been declining at national elections in almost all Western democracies. European Parliament (EP) elections have followed the same trend. We utilize a previously suggested method for separating the effect of generation, age and period and show that a major part of the decline can be attributed to the difference in turnout betwe...
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The use of CAWI (Computer-Assisted Web Interviews) has increased greatly over the last decade, partly driven by technological development and increased Internet pene-tration, and partly by falling response rates in the traditional modes of polling (Baker et al., 2010; Curtin, Presser, & Singer, 2005; Couper 2000; Hansen, 2007). While some studies h...
Article
For decades, political scientists have been asking how political jurisdictions are formed and reshaped. Nevertheless, studies of local government jurisdictional formation are few and often plagued with endogeneity since the formation of jurisdictions cannot be separated from sorting effects. In this article, the unique case of the Danish structural...
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Simulations of changing levels of political knowledge among Danish voters in the 1971 and 2005 general elections reveal a strong impact on party choice. The analysis advances previous simulations from the American two-party system to a multiparty system by applying survey data from the Danish Election Studies. In both multiparty elections, the impa...
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Research in political campaigning in Scandinavian countries is inadequate, and research in negative campaigning is entirely non-existent. A ‘negative campaign message’ is defined as an explicit critique of the political opponent. Applying this definition to the 2005 Danish election indicates that negative campaigning comprises a very limited aspect...
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Deliberation is the current buzzword among democratic thinkers. Deliberative democracy assumes that deliberation has an effect on the people engaging in the deliberative process. Several studies have demonstrated that this is indeed the case: deliberation increases political knowledge and opinion consistency, as well as mutual understanding and bro...
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  This article presents results from a Danish national Deliberative Poll on the single European currency. A representative sample of 364 Danish citizens assembled to deliberate on Denmark's participation in the single currency. As a quasi-experiment, the Deliberative Poll is an example of deliberative democracy. Four research questions regarding th...
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Organizational standards or guidelines, although commonly applied in public sector organizations, are rarely studied systematically. We report insights gained here into the circumstances present when organizations adopt standards by studying the diffusion of the Common Language Standard (CLS). Neo-institutional organization theory constitutes the t...
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Focus on the concept of deliberative democracy has increased rapidly within recent decades. However, the concept is weakly defined, if at all. ‘Deliberation’ is defined as an unconstrained exchange of arguments that involves practical reasoning and potentially leads to a transformation of preferences. Throughout the 1990s several innovative democra...
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Within Europe, the Danish electorate is the one that has most often expressed its opinion about the European Union in elections and in national referendums. Votes and attitudes are analysed for the five elections to the European Parliament between 1979 and 1999 and in the six referendums – from the first on membership of the EC in 1972 to the Septe...
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The relationship between politicians (elected officials) and administrators (appointed officials) is the cornerstone to understanding the governing process and has always been highly debated in the public administration literature. Traditionally, the debate focuses on Weber’s clear separation between politicians and administrators and a criticism o...
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Based on individual-level register data from Denmark and Finland, we estimate the causal effect of past eligibility on turnout in two previously unexplored institutional contexts. Our dataset includes the official turnout for about 2.3 million adult Danes and about 81,000 Finns between the ages of 18 and 30. Applying the approach suggested by Mered...
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Today public opinion polls are omnipresent. An unexpected alliance between democratic theory and opinion research has introduced alternative methods to gain insight into public opinion. There are two general problems with the existing opinion polls. First, seldom do the citizens have salient political opinions, thus the responses are quite random....
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Indledning I 1992 konkluderede Lars Bille i "Denmark: The 1990 Campaign", at de danske valgkampe er bagud sammenlignet med andre landes valgkampe i både deres form og indhold (Bille m.fl. 1992: 79). Men meget vand er løbet i åen siden valgkampen i 1990. Samtidigt med at de traditionelle valgkampselementer som kampagnebusture rundt i landet, valgpla...

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