Karoline S. Rogge

• Dr. sc. ETH
• Professor at University of Sussex

Reaching a better understanding of the policies and politics of transitions presents a main agenda item in the emerging field of sustainability transitions. One important requirement for these transitions, such as the move towards a decarbonized energy system, is the redirection and acceleration of technological change, for which policies play a ke...

Transforming the energy system to one with a greater importance of renewable power generation technologies requires redirecting and accelerating technological change. In this transition, so-called policy mixes play a crucial role. Yet precisely how policy mixes affect technological innovation remains poorly understood. To remedy this, in this study...

This article aims to empirically assess the impact of climate policy on technological change—a core objective of climate policy—by focussing on the changes it causes in the rate and direction of corporate innovation activities. To this end, we develop a cross-sectional framework based on concepts from evolutionary economics and organizational theor...

This paper provides a detailed analysis of how the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) as the core climate policy instrument of the European Union has impacted innovation. Towards this end, we investigate the impact of the EU ETS on research, development and demonstration (RD&D), adoption, and organizational change. In doing so, we pay partic...

This paper provides an overview of early changes in the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies which have been triggered by the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS). Based on a broad definition of the sector, our research analyses the impact of the EU ETS on the four building blocks ‘knowledge and technologies’, ‘actors a...

Addressing the climate crisis necessitates accelerating transitions towards climate-neutral systems of production and consumption, with electrification emerging as a crucial decarbonisation strategy. The acceleration of such net-zero transitions across multiple systems faces significant resistance and contestation. In this paper, we propose an exte...

Accelerating energy transitions that are both sustainable and just remains an important challenge, and social innovation can have a key role in this transition. Here, we examine the diversity and potential of social innovation in energy systems transformation, synthesizing original mixed methods data from expert interviews, document analysis, socia...

If transdisciplinary sustainability research is to contribute to sustainability transitions, issues of power dynamics need to be understood and accounted for. However, examples of concrete methods that put this into practice are sparse. This paper presents a conceptual and methodological framework that develops a better understanding of the power p...

Recognising the limited consideration of administrative aspects in sustainability transitions research, this article investigates the governing entities behind China's policy mix for electric vehicles (EVs), and their interactions from 2001 to 2020. Based on a social network analysis of policy documents we find that as the e-mobility transition unf...

Achieving climate-neutrality by mid-century and its intermediary reduction targets for 2030, notably the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 55% by 2030, requires an accelerated transformation of our systems of production and consumption. In essence, such transformations are socio-technical change processes that require a combination of tech...

Stressing two acceleration options: credible climate policy mixes phasing out policy support for fossil fuels, and tapping into the massive future potential of social innovation in energy.

Karoline Rogge presented joint EMPOCI research with Qi Song and Nicholas Goedeking at a workshop organised by Fraunhofer ISI and the CAPACITOR team at CBS focusing on capacities for sustainability transitions.

Academic research and policy have focused on sustainable energy transitions for addressing the societal challenge of climate change for a long time, but the concept of ‘social innovation’ has only been recently taken up. This concept refers to different social phenomena relating to changes in socio-technical systems. Moving beyond narrow perspectiv...

While experimentation is at the heart of sustainability transitions, little attention has been paid to policy experimentation and its effects in advancing transitions. Drawing on the literatures on policy experimentation and institutional change in the context of sustainability transitions, we analyse an in-depth case study of the development of Mo...

Presentation given at the IST2021 conference within a special session organised by the EMPOCI team and chaired by its PI Karoline Rogge on "Transformative capacities for sustainability transitions: harnessing the diversity of conceptualizations in innovation and policy studies".

Industrial policy has re-emerged as an area of policy discussion in recent years, but the characteristics and role of industrial policy vary across national contexts. Particularly, the role of industrial policy in the ongoing energy transitions of different countries has received little attention. We introduce an analytical framework to explore the...

The sustainability transitions research field continues to broaden rapidly, engaging scholars from a wide variety of disciplinary backgrounds. As highlighted in the STRN research agenda, transitions research relies on a broad range of methodological approaches; yet the methodological diversity of transitions studies has remained somewhat limited. I...

Social innovation is an important dimension of current transformations in energy systems. It can refer to alternative business models, novel policy instruments, financing schemes, participatory governance approaches to energy questions, or new discourses. Its significance for energy systems is often considered in narrow instrumentalist terms, reduc...

Karoline Rogge's IST2020 keynote "Transformative Policy Mixes for accelerating sustainability transitions in the energy sector" includes an introduction to policy mixes for sustainability transitions and what makes them transformative, embeds this emerging research stream in the wider methodological developments in the sustainability transitions co...

An introduction to research into policy mixes in sustainability transitions.

In 2014 Argentina has adopted a new policy strategy aiming at the diffusion of renewable energies. In this paper, we analyze the associated policy making process and the impacts of the emerging policy mix on socio-technical change in the Argentinean electricity sector, with a particular focus on the development of a national renewables industry. Ou...

Understanding how policy and policy-making processes can influence the speed and direction of socio-technical change is an important, yet underexplored research agenda in the field of sustainability transitions. This paper is the first application of a novel analytical framework which conceptualises the co-evolutionary dynamics of policy mixes and...

Academic and policy literatures are seeing a growing discussion about ‘clean energy disruption’. However, the term disruption often lacks definitional clarity. Departing from the concept of disruptive innovation and based on a review of firm-based management and socio-technical transitions literatures, we derive four dimensions of system disruption...

There has been an increasing interest in science, technology and innovation policy studies in the topic of policy mixes. While earlier studies conceptualised policy mixes mainly in terms of combinations of instruments to support innovation, more recent literature extends the focus to how policy mixes can foster sustainability transitions. For this,...

Empirical research on eco-innovation has produced a substantive body of literature on the relevance of regulation for stimulating such innovation. Much of this work on the role of policy for eco-innovation relies on econometric analyses of company survey data. In this regard, the eco-innovation module introduced in 2008/2009 in the Community Innova...

The credibility of climate policy has been identified as paramount factor for low-carbon investment and innovation and is thus key to achieving the decarbonization objectives set out in the Paris Agreement. Yet, despite its importance, we have only limited insights at present into how such policy credibility is formed. To address this gap, we explo...

Policy mixes may play a crucial role in redirecting and accelerating innovation towards low-carbon solutions, thus addressing a key societal challenge. Towards this end, some argue that the characteristics of such policy mixes matter greatly, yet with little empirical evidence backing up such claims. In this paper we explore this link between polic...

In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated ass...

Much research and policy advice for addressing climate change has focused on developing model-based scenarios to identify pathways towards achieving decarbonisation targets. The paper's first aim is to complement such model-based analysis with insights from socio-technical transition analysis to develop socio-technical storylines that show how low-...

Understanding how policymaking processes can influence the rate and direction of socio-technical change towards sustainability is an important, yet underexplored research agenda in the field of sustainability transitions. Some studies have sought to explain how individual policy instruments can influence transitions, and the politics surrounding th...

While empirical studies on technological innovation systems (TIS) usually focus on policy instruments and their suitability for curing identified weaknesses of such emerging systems, the underlying policy processes and their effects have been largely disregarded. We address this gap by exploring the style of two crucial policy-making processes and...

The energy sector plays a significant role in reaching the ambitious climate policy target of limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2°C. To this end, technological change has to be redirected and accelerated in the direction of zero-carbon solutions. Given the urgency and magnitude of the climate change challenge it has been argued...

This paper provides a survey of policy process theories and their usefulness in transitions research. Some research has already used such theories, but often in an ad hoc and relatively cursory way and with little attention to potential alternatives. However, it has been argued that transition scholars need to pay more attention to the politics of...

Energy transitions face multiple barriers, lock-in, path dependencies and resistance to change which require strategic policy efforts to be overcome. In this regard, it has been increasingly recognised that a multiplicity of instruments – or instrument mixes – are needed to foster low-carbon transitions. In addition, over the past few years a broad...

To meet global climate goals an energy transition is needed. However, energy transitions are complex and long-term processes and require a variety of public policy interventions to steer their direction and speed to achieve global climate change mitigation targets. One area where policy support is required is energy efficiency, which offers a high...

The recent debate on the temporal dynamics of energy transitions is crucial since one of the main reasons for embarking on transitions away from fossil fuels is tackling climate change. Long-drawn out transitions, taking decades or even centuries as we have seen historically, are unlikely to help achieve climate change mitigation targets. Therefore...

One key approach for studying emerging technologies in the field of sustainability transitions is that of technological innovation systems (TIS). While most TIS studies aim at deriving policy recommendations – typically by identifying system barriers – the actual role of these proposed policies in the TIS is rarely looked at. In addition, often sin...

Reaching a better understanding of the policies and politics of transitions presents a main agenda item in the emerging field of sustainability transitions. One important requirement for these transitions, such as the move towards a decarbonized energy system, is the redirection and acceleration of technological change, for which policies play a ke...

One key approach for studying emerging technologies in the field of sustainability transitions is that of technological innovation systems (TIS). While most TIS studies aim at deriving policy recommendations - typically by identifying system barriers - the actual role of these proposed policies in the TIS is rarely looked at. In addition, often sin...

Reaching a better understanding of the policies and politics of transitions presents a main agenda item in the emerging field of sustainability transitions. One important requirement for these transitions, such as the move towards a decarbonized energy system, is the redirection and acceleration of technological change, for which policies play a ke...

Germany has been one of the frontrunners in climate and renewable policy since the mid-1980s. In the context of its energy transition (the Energiewende) it aims at reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80-95% by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels) and to achieve a share of renewable energies in gross electricity consumption of at least 80% b...

Reaching a better understanding of the politics and policies of transitions pre-sents a main agenda item in the emerging field of sustainability transitions. One important requirement for these transitions, such as the move towards a decarbonized energy system, is the redirection and acceleration of technological change, for which policies play a k...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of how the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) as the core climate policy instrument of the European Union has impacted innovation. Towards this end, we investigate the impact of the EU ETS on research, development, and demonstration (RD&D), adoption, and organizational change. In doing so, we pay...

In January 2005, the EU wide emission trading scheme (EU ETS) for large stationary emitters of CO2 started in its then 25 Member States. The general objective of this novel economic instrument is to help the EU cost-efficiently achieve its Kyoto commitment of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by −8% by 2008–2012 (compared to 1990) and fut...

Based on a research framework which combines environmental economics and innovation studies, we explore the relevance of the regulatory framework for innovation activities in the German paper industry, with a focus on climate poli-cies. Innovation activities considered include research and development, adop-tion and organizational change. Empirical...

Report to the "Carbon Pricing for Low-Carbon Investment Project", Berlin, London: Climate Policy Initiative, Climate Strategies.

In this paper, we conduct a cross-country quantitative analysis of the replacement incentives generated by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for the power sector in 2008-12. In order to do so, the allocation rules of the Member States are applied to concrete reference power plants for three different fuel types (lignite, hard coal and gas). B...

Doctoral thesis. ETH Zurich.

In this paper, we conduct a cross-country quantitative analysis of the replacement incentives generated by the EU ETS for the power sector in 2008-12. In order to do so, the allocation rules of the Member States are applied to concrete reference power plants for three different fuel types (lignite, hard coal and gas). Based on these calculations, w...

This paper explores the incentives for energy efficiency induced by the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for installations in the energy and industry sectors. Our analysis of the National Allocation Plans for 27 EU Member States for phase 2 of the EU ETS (2008–2012) suggests that the price and cost effects for improvements in carbon...

Since January 2005, more than 11,000 installations in the EU are participating in the CO2 Emission Trading Scheme. Within this system companies may choose from a variety of compliance strategy options. To assess the relevance of reputational effects on companies’ climate strategies, a survey of the 300 largest emitting companies in Germany was cond...

I modify the uniform-price auction rules in allowing the seller to ration bidders. This allows me to provide a strategic foundation for underpricing when the seller has an interest in ownership dispersion. Moreover, many of the so-called "collusive-seeming" equilibria disappear.

This paper examines the potential for Domestic Offset Projects (DPs) in climate protection in Germany. DPs are unilateral GHG emissions reduction projects carried out in a country with a binding greenhouse gas emission reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol (Annex I Country). In contrast to the well known project-based mechanisms under the Kyoto...

We quantified the volume of free allowances that different national allocation plans proposed to allocate to existing and new installations, with specific reference to the power sector. Most countries continue to allocate based on historic emissions, contrary to hopes for improved allocation methods, with allocations to installations frequently bas...

Based on 18 national allocation plans (NAPs) submitted to the European Commission for phase II (2008–2012) of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), we find that, on average, the ET budgets in phase II are only about 2.6% below historical emissions in 2005, about 3.1% lower than the budgets in phase I (2005–2007), and 3% below projected emission...

Based on 18 national allocation plans (NAPs) submitted to the European Commission for phase II (2008-2012) of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), we find that, on average, the ET budgets in phase II are only about 2.6% below historical emissions in 2005, about 3.1% lower than the budgets in phase I (2005-2007), and 3% below projected emission...

Based on 18 National Allocation Plans (NAP) for phase 2 (2008-2012) of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), we explore to which extent individual Member States (MS) intend to use the ETS effectively and efficiently to reduce CO2 emissions. Our analyses at the macro level of these NAPs show that on average the ET-budgets in phase 2 are only abou...

Diese Arbeit untersucht nationale Ausgleichsprojekte (NP) im Klimaschutz bezüglich ihrer ökologischen Treffsicherheit, ihrer statischen und dynamischen ökonomischen Effizienz, ihrer Transaktionskosten sowie ihrer gesellschaftlichen und politischen Umsetzbarkeit. Hierfür werden NP definiert als unilaterale Klimaschutzprojekte, die in einem Land mit...

Bei der Inanspruchnahme von Freiräumen für Siedlung und Verkehr ("Flächenverbrauch") besteht in Deutschland eine große Diskrepanz zwischen aktueller Entwicklung und politischer Zielsetzung. Daher wird seit einiger Zeit darüber nachgedacht, den Flächenverbrauch zu limitieren und dabei verstärkt auf ökonomische Instrumente zu setzen. Insbesondere der...