Karl Rich

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research | CGIAR · Policies, Institutions, and Livelihoods

Introduction: Efficiency in food production is crucial for sustainable agriculture in developing countries. This paper contributes to the existing literature by presenting an innovative approach to modeling productive efficiency in beef cattle production. Treating farm performance across regions as unobserved heterogeneity, we determine technical e...

Standard tools that can quantitatively track the impacts of higher global demand for animal-sourced food to their local environmental effects in developing countries are largely missing. This paper presents a novel integrated assessment framework that links a model of the global agricultural and food system, a landscape-level environmental impact a...

A complex set of factors affect the production and sale of livestock in Somaliland, including feed supply, diseases, and demand, among others. This study constructs a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the impacts of baseline dynamics and alternative value chain interventions to address inherent constraints. Findings indicate that Somaliland in...

Demand for animal-source foods (ASF) has grown substantially in Africa over the last four decades, fueled mainly by population growth, urbanization, and modest gains in per capita incomes. Further growth over the medium and longer terms is expected as these trends in external drivers continue, with implications of this growth reflecting a multitude...

The interactions among complex sets of feedback loops (circular causal connections) between the production, trade and financial performance govern the cattle value chain in Nigeria. This paper aims to identify the key feedback loops influencing the structure and behaviour of trade dynamics in Nigeria’s cattle value chain. We deployed a qualitative...

This document is part of a series of short papers on "The Future of X", produced as part of foresight-related research supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, and edited by Keith Wiebe (IFPRI) and Steven Prager (Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT). These short papers are intended to provide a focused, forward-lo...

CONTEXT Myanmar has made rapid economic progress since the country began its transition to a more integrated market economy in the late 2000s. Although these gains are led by positive developments in the agricultural sector, agricultural productivity and profitability are among the lowest in Asia with high rates of poverty especially in rural areas...

Small-scale pig farming is highly important to the economic and social status of households in Timor-Leste. The presence of an African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Timor-Leste was confirmed in 2019, a major concern given that around 70% of agricultural households practice pig farming. This research used a virtual spatial group model building proce...

Assessment of impacts of livestock diseases tends to be rather challenging due to several reasons including complexity of the livestock value chains themselves; interactions of livestock with other sectors of the economy; short term versus long term impacts of diseases; and feedback reactions by value chain actors to risks posed by a disease includ...

Animal‐source foods (ASF) are an important source of nutrients in many developing countries. However, there is limited information on the demand for ASF and the factors influencing their consumption. This study assessed spatial and temporal patterns of ASF consumption in Tanzania using data from a nationally representative household survey. Price a...

The 2019 African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in Vietnam imposed considerable impacts on the pig sector in Vietnam, resulting in the death or culling of nearly six million pigs, or more than 20% of the country's pig population. In order to assess the magnitude of the outbreak at sector level (both on farm and at value chain level), on livelihoods, a...

In recent decades there has been a sustained and substantial shift in human diets across the globe towards including more livestock-derived foods. Continuing debates scrutinize how these dietary shifts affect human health, the natural environment, and livelihoods. However, amidst these debates there remain unanswered questions about how demand for...

Despite large volumes of cattle stocks in the Sahel, most exports of cattle products remain as live animal sales rather than meat. However, there is increased interest amongst donors and governments to increase value-added exports of beef. In this paper, we provide results from a simulation analysis that explores the prospective competitiveness and...

Rising per capita consumption, economic growth, and urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, have been driving an increased global demand for food. These changing socioeconomic trends, which have largely influenced changes in dietary patterns globally, including increased consumption of livestock products in developing countries, are exp...

The demand for livestock-derived foods has steadily grown over the past decades and rising incomes and human populations are expected to see demand further increase. It is unclear if current livestock feed resources are adequately prepared to meet future demand especially given the looming challenges of climate change. Many feeds such as grasses, c...

Objective: This paper examines the ex-ante impacts of on-farm diversification and forward integration strategies on agricultural value chain resilience, with an empirical focus on Ghana’s cocoa value chain. Method: System dynamics modelling was used to explore five scenarios involving variable-input on-farm diversification pursued by cocoa farmers...

This paper conducts ex-ante impact assessments for policy interventions to promote amaranth value chains in Tanzania and Kenya. Amaranth is an underdeveloped, drought-resistant, and nutrition-rich crop used for human food, animal fodder, and ornamental purposes. Promoting amaranth value chains is a difficult task, given that amaranth is not a well-...

A system dynamics approach to chain/network analysis in the primary industry sector

PPR remains a major challenge to smallholder farmers in Mali. To understand the drivers of low adoption of vaccination by farmers, we analyzed the socio-economic factors influencing farmer WTV during and in the absence of vaccination campaigns. Given that the costs associated with vaccination are largely borne by farmers, we assessed factors that a...

Conventional approaches for assessing supply chain vulnerability do not capture endogenous disruptions emanating from chain actors’ decisions that might increase value chain vulnerability. These approaches adopt a reactive analytical explanation of vulnerability, rather than one that considers issues of feedback effects. To address this issue, this...

Using market access to achieve developmental aims has long been held as a key tenet of global development policy. Using a case study approach based on interviews along and across the beef value chain between Namibia, Botswana, and Norway, this article addresses the question of whether market access to high-value markets for livestock products has d...

Free open access until 16 August 2019 here: https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1ZI9rB8cckQbG [copy and paste in your browser] Aquaculture systems are highly complex, dynamic and interconnected systems influenced by environmental, biological, cultural, socio-economic and human behavioural factors. Intensification of aquaculture production is likely to d...

Traditionally, cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) focus on the direct costs of animal disease, including animal mortality, morbidity, and associated response costs. However, such approaches often fail to capture the wider, dynamic market impacts that could arise. The duration of these market dislocations could last well after an initial disease outbreak....

The analysis of the concept of resilience in supply chain management studies mostly focuses on the downstream side of the value chain and tacitly assumes an unlimited supply of raw materials. This assumption is unreasonable for agricultural value chains, as upstream disruptions clearly have a material impact on the availability of raw materials, an...

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Achieving inclusive value chain development is a challenging task due to the complex and dynamic nature of interconnected value chains and their social, economic, and ecological dimensions. While many policies and intervention options exist to upgrade value chains, there are fewer methods that can be used to understand and quantify the multidimensi...

Animal diseases are global issues affecting the productivity and financial profitability of affected farms. Johne’s disease is distributed on farms worldwide and is an endemic contagious bacterial infection in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis. In cattle, the clinical disease manifests itself as chronic enteritis r...

Despite extensive efforts to control the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), it remains endemic in Western Java, Indonesia. To understand the limited effectiveness of HPAI control measures, it is important to map the complex structure of the poultry sector. The governance of the poultry value chain in particular, could play a pivotal role, ye...

Predictive models have been used extensively to assess the likely effectiveness of vaccination policies as part of control measures in the event of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. However, the availability of vaccine stocks and the impact of vaccine availability on disease control strategies represent a key uncertainty when assessing poten...

Understanding the practices of traditional cattle farmers in developing countries is an important factor in the development of appropriate, pro-poor disease control policies, and in formulating regional-specific production incentives that can improve productivity. This paper describes the production, husbandry practices, economics, and constraints...

Despite extensive efforts to control the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), it remains endemic in Western Java, Indonesia. To understand the limited effectiveness of HPAI control measures, it is important to map the complex structure of the poultry sector. The governance of the poultry value chain in particular, could play a pivotal role, ye...

East Coast Fever (ECF) is the most economically important production disease among traditional beef cattle farmers in Zambia. Despite the disease control efforts by the government, donors, and farmers, ECF cases are increasing. Why does ECF oscillate over time? Can alternative approaches such as systems thinking contribute solutions to the complex...

In the context of animal health and food safety, economic impact assessment tools are increasingly important to quantify the probable impacts of risks and to aid in decision making in times of increasingly tight budget constraints (Rich and Niemi 2017). However, the risks and impacts associated with both food safety and animal health can take place...

This study investigates factors influencing both the use of conservation agriculture (CA) and the intensity of its uptake amongst 237 smallholders sampled in the Masvingo district of Zimbabwe. The intensity of uptake was measured using an index that accounted for the number of CA components used, their relative importance, and the rate and extent o...

Economic impact assessments are increasingly important in the context of animal health and food safety, although much of the existing literature does not address the broader systems context in which disease transmission takes place. In this paper, we discuss the role of system dynamics modeling in addressing the value chain impacts associated with...

The use of system dynamics tools can add valuable insights when identifying and evaluating priorities for pro-poor value chain upgrading. However, to better understand the complex systems in agricultural value chains and to develop useful models, a participatory modelling process is important. This article highlights the group model building proces...

Certification programs has been employed in many agricultural products as a means to encourage and communicate compliance with standards associated with various attributes, such as organic, fair-trade, GMO free, and eco-friendly, among others. Such programs further seek to provide added value, through a price premium, to producers and supply chain...

Humans have never been healthier, wealthier or more numerous. Yet, present success may be at the cost of future prosperity and in some places, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, poverty persists. Livestock keepers, especially pastoralists, are over-represented among the poor. Poverty has been mainly attributed to a lack of access, whether to goods,...

Potatoes are an important crop for food security in Bihar, providing significant income generating activities for participating farmers and an additional source of diet diversification for consumers. Recent reforms to the Agriculture Production Market Committee (APMC) Act and improvements in state-wide governance have provided further incentives fo...

Urban agriculture has become an important research theme in recent years. Over the past decade, a number of different, diverse value chains have been established in the urban areas of developed and developing countries alike, with increasing convergence in their motivations related to food security and livelihoods development, particularly for poor...

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly infectious disease of sheep and goats that is caused by PPR virus, amember of the genus Morbillivirus that includes the viruses that cause rinderpest (RP) in cattle. RP was the first animal disease to be globally eradicated in 2011 and is only the second disease, after smallpox, to have ever been eradica...

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected count...

Sheep and goat population and PPR status. (XLSX)

National budget for an average infected country. (XLSX)

National budget for an average at-risk country. (XLSX)

Benefit-cost analysis. (XLSX)

PPR Eradication Budget (including 3% annual inflation). (XLSX)

Estimating annual mortality rate in infected countries. (XLSX)

PPR within-flock mortality literature review. (XLSX)

Estimation of losses due to PPR mortality. (XLSX)

In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and medium-scale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to analyze the Matiguá...

In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and medium-scale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to analyze the Matiguá...

Food safety and animal health issues are increasingly important constraints to smallholder pig production in Viet Nam. Recent studies have highlighted the significant prevalence of animal disease and food borne pathogens inherent within the Vietnamese pig sector. These in turn have important negative livelihoods effects on smallholder pig producers...

Rich, M., Changappa, G., Babu, K., Rich, K.M. Improving livelihoods through conservation and education: a case study of the Swastha butterfly garden. NUPI Working Paper 829, Oslo: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (2014).

Market access for African livestock products has long been stymied by a variety of animal diseases endemic in the region. The concept of commodity-based trade (CBT) has been advanced to make trade dependent on process-related attributes of production that ensure freedom from disease rather than the geographical origin of the animals themselves. Thi...

Various methodologies have been used to model the epidemiology and economics of aquatic diseases, including input-output models, benefit-cost analysis, linear programming, compartment models based on differential equations, and spatial models. Despite the virtues of each of these models, there is a need to develop a more integrated approach to the...

The traditional pig sector plays a significant role in Vietnam’s economy from production, especially for farmers in rural areas, to consumption (more than 90% of pork consumed is supplied by conventional wet markets). At the same time, the traditional pig sector is under threat from animal health and food safety risks that impact both its profitabi...

In Vietnam, there are more than 4 million households producing pigs and pork. This accounts for 57% of quantity of meat consumed. One of the most critical constraints to pig production is the presence of animal disease. Pig disease outbreaks are a regular occurrence in various parts of the country, with the industry affected by diseases such as foo...

In Vietnam, there are more than 4 million households producing pigs and pork. This accounts for 57% of quantity of meat consumed. One of the most critical constraints to pig production is the presence of animal disease. Pig disease outbreaks are a regular occurrence in various parts of the country, with the industry affected by diseases such as foo...

While demands for animal disease surveillance systems are growing, there has been little applied research that has examined the interactions between resource allocation, cost-effectiveness, and behavioral considerations of actors throughout the livestock supply chain in a surveillance system context. These interactions are important as feedbacks be...

Rinderpest was once one of the world’s most feared diseases of livestock, responsible for the deaths of millions of livestock. However, rinderpest is just one of two diseases that has been successfully eradicated globally. A major gap in the history of rinderpest concerns the socio-economic impacts of its control and eradication. While much has bee...