About
91
Publications
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117
Citations
Citations since 2017
Introduction
Additional affiliations
November 2015 - present
Position
- Professor (Associate)
Description
- Macroeconomic Modelling; Time Series Analysis and Forecasting; Applied Econometrics II; Public Finance; etc.
March 2013 - present
Sigma Hat OOD
Position
- Managing Partner
Description
- Consultancy in Economic Modelling, Policy, Forecasting, etc.
August 2010 - March 2013
Raiffeisenbank Bulgaria EAD
Position
- Head of Department
Description
- Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting
Education
February 2002 - January 2007
October 1997 - January 1999
October 1993 - September 1997
Publications
Publications (91)
In this paper we explore the long-term developments of consumer prices in Bulgaria for the period 1750-2020. The discussion draws on a component-based index of consumer prices constructed by the authors. We consider both nominal price-level time series and real prices of selected essentials (bread, meat, sugar, tobacco, alcohol, and construction go...
The chapter explores the skill-formation processes in Bulgaria over four periods: two periods of the communist regime, the transition to markets and EU integration. For all of them, it reviews the sizable human capital imbalances faced by governments and their policy responses for the long term. The issues inherited from central planning regarding...
Кръгла маса „Инфлация и икономически растеж. Въвеждане на единната европейска валута в Република България – ползи, предизвикателства и рискове“
This paper explores the effectiveness of youth employment measures in Bulgaria during the period 2000 – 2019. Firstly, the underlying factors affecting formulation and implementation of such policies are discussed including institutional context, macroeconomic environment, and labour market development. The policy response to the rising youth unemp...
We evaluate a political market mechanism for allocating nuclear waste repositories to local communities. This mechanism consists of a local referendum and economic incentives offered to the local population. Using a randomized choice experiment, we find that the political market mechanism potentially solves the Not-In-My-Backyard problem of nuclear...
The following research is the first attempt in the Bulgarian-language literature to quantify the drivers behind the internal migration of the population in Bulgaria after 1878, which according to some authors (Palairet, 1997) is of key importance for the established post-liberation economic and social model. So far, hypotheses concerning migration...
Economic forecasting is always difficult and in turbulent periods becomes nearly impossible: Time-series are short and nonstationary while theoretical underpinning is limited. The brain, however, has mechanisms to deal with that kind of challenges, and neuroscience has uncovered some of them. Here we show how a neural circuit model for emotion gene...
The paper makes a comparison of the results of the application of two-sided and one-sided versions of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on GDP data concerning 27 EU Member States. Based on the results, the overall finding is that, contrary to its assumed advantages, the one-sided filter does not help overcome endpoint unbiasedness. Quite the opposite, it...
The study contains a critical review of the development of scientific research in Bulgaria
in the area of modelling economic growth and cyclical fluctuations during the socialist period. It
also reviews the determinants of that development such as the economic preconditions after World War II, the limitations and the biases following from the domin...
The study contains a critical review of the development of scientific research in Bulgaria in the area of modelling economic growth and cyclical fluctuations during the socialist period. The present second part continues the discussion from the previous one, focusing on the last decade of socialism in Bulgaria, i.e. from the beginning of the 1980s...
Presentation for the webinar organized by UNICEF Bulgaria and FEBA, Sofia University
Методология за прогнозиране:
Дългосрочното прогнозиране на пазара на труда в България води началото си от 2013–2014 г., когато беше разработен Прогностичен модел за пазара на труда в България. Моделът е в съответствие с добрите между-народни практики в областта. Включва мате-матически и статистически инструментариум, и е реализиран в специализирана...
Моделът е изготвен по задание на Министерство на финансите на Република България. Основната задача на конструирания модел е да позволи оценяването на ефекти от проявлението на шокове върху ключови променливи на икономическата среда. Една част от тези ефекти касаят основни макроикономически агрегати и бюджетни показатели, а друга се отнася до изричн...
Тенденции в заетостта и основни фактори, оказващи влияние върху развитието на пазара на труда
Обобщени резултати от средносрочните и дългосрочните прогнози за развитието на пазара на труда в България за периода 2018-2032 г.
Обобщени резултати от прогнозите за заетостта в избрани ключови сектори за периода 2018-2032 г.
Evaluation Of the Measures of Youth Employment Initiative under Priority Axis 1 of Operational Program "Human Resources Development" 2014-2020
The objective of the study is to determine a possible configuration of key work-related factors with respect to safety and health in the SMEs. Main research question is: By what mechanism do work time, work place, wellbeing and health affect accidents and incidents? A set of key work-related factors for accidents and incidents was identified based...
English Version:
https://www.eufunds.bg/images/SIBILA_2_methodological_frameworkand_technical_documentation_en.pdf
Настоящият доклад е разработен в изпълнение на проект „Извършване на последваща оценка на приноса на активната политика на пазара на труда за изменение на избрани показатели, характеризи-ращи икономическото и социално развитие на страната за периода 2000–2011 г.“, финансиран по ос 6 на ОП РЧР със средства от ЕСФ от МТСП и реализиран в периода 2014–...
This report was developed within the project "Preparing an Ex-post Assessment of the Contribution of the Active Labor Market Policy for the Dynamics of Selected Indicators Characterizing the Economic and Social Development of Bulgaria for the period 2000-2011" funded by Axis 6 of OP HRD by ESF by MLSP and implement-ed in the period 2014-2015.
Activ...
This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for fiscal policies design in the framework of the EU Stability...
This is a brief review of one of the most important theories about the factors causing cyclic fluctuations in economy. Starting from the postulates the classical economic school and its inability to explain the existence of prolonged deviations from full employment, and economic crises in particular, conclusions on the role of the early theories fo...
The current framework for forecasting labour demand and supply in Bulgaria is based on a modular approach. The different modules allow consideration of a variety of information, including exogenous parameters of the development as population dynamics and projected trajectories of output gap and capital in the economy, as well as endogenous calculat...
Анализ на професиите и бизнес дейностите в обособените крайгранични области, както и възможностите за стартиране на нов бизнес, пазарни тенденции е изготвен за целите и нуждите на Министерство на икономиката и енергетиката. Основната му цел е да се оценят наличните специалисти по професии, както и кои икономически дейности се развиват в четирите об...
Анализът на потребностите на МСП от специалисти и управленски кадри (количествени и качествени) в обособените крайгранични области – Благоевград, Кърджали, Смолян и Хасково, е изготвен за целите и нуждите на Министерство на икономиката и енергетиката.
Основната цел на анализа е да установи какви са потребностите на пазара на труда от специалисти (е...
Настоящият доклад е разработен в рамките на проект № BG 051PO001–6.1.09–0001 „Изграждане на система за прогнозиране на потребностите от работна сила с определени характеристики”, финансиран по ос 6 на Оперативна програма „Развитие на човешките ресурси” със средства от Европейския социален фонд и реализиран в периода 2013-2014 г. от Министерството н...
Основните въпроси, които са проследени в рамките на анализа са свързани с макроикономическото развитие на страната през последните години; характерните за страната особености, в сравнение с характеристиките на страните-членки на ЕС; състоянието на земеделието и хранително-вкусовата промишленост; и социално-икономическото състояние в селските райони...
Business Systems Review Journal
On the basis of existing theory we suggest two main types of factors for SME competitiveness. The first type is comprised of the basic factors, including internal, external and entrepreneur-related factors, all well-defined and discussed in the IO and RBV approach and the configuration theory as well. The second typ...
In this study we present the theoretical framework of the so called Mincerian equations used for modelling returns to education. Then, we construct a conceptual framework which allows us to answer the question “What happens to doctoral degree holders in the labour market?”. We analyse data for about 45,000 PhD graduates in Bulgaria from the NSI sur...
Основната цел на настоящето изследване е да бъде направена оценка на въздействието на инвестициите в образование и наука в България, финансирани по линия на европейските фондове. Оценено е въздействието на инвестираните средства в образование и наука по оперативните програми към края на 2012 г., както и са направени проекции на потенциалното им въз...
The Bulgarian version of this paper can be found at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2290685 SMEs Analysis for the period 2012-2013 has been elaborated for the purposes and needs of the Bulgarian Small and Medium Enterprises Promotion Agency (BSMEPA), which is responsible for the implementation of national policies in the area of small and medium-size ente...
The Bulgarian version of this paper can be found at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2290692The main goal of the analysis is to study the current state of the SME sector, the potential to develop the activities of the enterprises, as well as to estimate the effects of the SME competitiveness factors on their business performance in times of economic recov...
The main objective of the paper is to provide an estimation of the impact of the investments in education and science in Bulgaria, financed by the European structural instruments. It provides net impact assessment as of end of 2012 as well as projections of potential effect until 2020. The methodology used is based on application of SIBILA model (V...
The main goal of this research was to investigate the SMEs competitiveness in terms of leading and supporting factors, and to compare the influence of these factors on SMEs performance. The study focused on four leading and four supportive factors. For each of these factors the respective indexes were constructed and calculated on the basis of 300...
Основната цел на анализа е да изследва актуалното състояние на сектора на МСП, потенциала за развитие на дейността на предприятията, както и да опише основните ефекти от държавните политики. Ситуацията в сектора на МСП е разгледана в рамките на периода 2005-2011 г., като основните статистически данни покриват периода 2005-2009 г. Индикаторите за на...
Main objective of the analysis is to examine the present situation of the SME sector, the potential of development of the enterprises, and to describe the key effects from the state policies.Situation of the SME sector is investigated for the period of 2005-2011. Main statistical data covers the period of 2005-2009. Research indicators are compleme...
In the framework of a research project Croatia Integration Perspectives and Synergic Effects of European Transformation in the Countries Targeted by EU Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policies, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the state of the transformation processes in Croatia as well as its relations with the EU. Systematic study an...
In this paper we use growth accounting methodology to study whether human capital explains a part of total factor productivity in transition. The results that are obtained are not in support of the theoretical findings of growth theory that human capital is a major determinant of growth and productivity. However, eventually we continue to believe t...
Total factor productivity measurement enables researchers to determine the contribution of supply-side production factors to economic growth. For Bulgaria, which is a transition economy, it is difficult to construct a production function with stable parameters, mostly because there are atypical developments of capital and labor during periods of ec...
The paper reviews the basic statistical methods for estimation of the deviations from the production potential of the economy. The emphasis is put on the a-theoretical approaches. To illustrate the application of the models data for the Bulgarian economy have been used, and on the basis of the obtained estimates general conclusions on the state and...
Статията разглежда основните статистически методи за оценка на отклоненията от производствения потенциал на икономиката. Засегнати са основно атеоретичните подходи. За илюстрация на приложението на моделите са използвани данни за икономиката на България, като от получените оценки са направени основни изводи за състоянието и развитието на някои макр...
In this paper we present a modification of a Solow-type model with human capital. We introduce an assumption of non-effectiveness of education and training systems and other means of human capital investment, which leads to new results concerning steady-state economic growth and convergence.
