K. Batu Tunay

• PhD
• Marmara University

Bu çalışmada, seçilmiş gelişmekte olan ekonomiler örneği üzerinden makro ihtiyati politikaların banka krizi olasılığını düşürüp düşürmediği ekonometrik olarak analiz edilmiştir. Analizlerde, orta üst gelir grubunda yer alan ve geçmiş kırk yıllık dönemde iki veya daha fazla banka krizi deneyimi olan yedi gelişmekte olan ülkeden derlenen veriler kull...

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de makro finansal bağların durgunluklar üzerindeki etkileri ekonometrik olarak analiz edilmektedir. 2006-2023 dönemini kapsayan aylık frekanstaki geniş bir veri seti, Bellego ve Ferrara (2009, 2012) tarafından geliştirilen faktörlerle genişletilmiş probit yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda, önce statik bir fak...

Bu çalışmada, sistemik banka krizleri incelenmiş, seçilmiş üst orta gelir grubundaki gelişmekte olan ekonomiler ve Türkiye’de sistemik banka krizleri ekonometrik olarak analiz edilmiştir. 1980-2022 dönemini kapsayan yıllık verilerden oluşan iki örneklem kullanılmıştır. İlk örneklemde, Dünya Bankası sınıflandırmasında üst orta gelir grubunda yer ala...

In this study, the relationship between non-performing bank loans and recession possibilities in Turkey was analyzed. Thus, the extent and possible repercussions of the relationship between the stability of the banking system and economic activity are evaluated. Recessions and non-performing loans have strong interactions with many macroeconomic an...

Risklilikleri kurumsal kredilere oranla düşük ve karlılıkları tatminkâr oranda yüksek olduğundan tüketici kredileri bankalar için önemli bir plasman türüdür. Hane halkının da çeşitli tüketim harcamalarının finansmanı için bu kredilere yönelik ciddi bir talebi olduğu görülmektedir. Bu tespitler Türkiye içinde önemli oranda geçerlidir ve son yıllarda...

Bu çalışmada, enflasyon oranlarının giderek hız kazandığı Türkiye’de, sigorta şirketlerinin performanslarının ve prim üretimlerinin enflasyondan nasıl etkilendiği araştırılmıştır. Karlılık oranları için 2006:1-2022:3 ve prim üretimi için de 2008:4-2022:3 dönemlerini kapsayan iki örneklem kullanılarak enflasyonun etkileri incelenmiştir. Analizlerde...

In this study, macroeconomic variables that may have an effect on the default of credit cards in Turkey and their effect levels were investigated. Two separate data sets, consisting of quarterly and monthly data covering the period 2013-2022, were analyzed. Seah et al. (2014) a regression model they developed was adapted for Turkey. In this model,...

Türkiye uzun bir fiyat istikrarı sürecinin ardından yeniden enflasyonist baskılar yaşamaya başlamıştır. 2017 sonrasında giderek artan enflasyon oranları nedeniyle para ikamesi süreci hız kazanmıştır. Son dönemde yaşanan kur şokları ulusal paradan kaçışı arttırmış, ekonomik birimlerin hem yabancı paraya hem de tüketime yönelik talepleri yükselmiştir...

In this study, the possibility of hyperinflation in Turkey, which has been experiencing increasing inflationary pressures and a strong currency substitution process after 2017, is empirically investigated. Based on Cagan's (1956) postulates on hyperinflation, the dynamics of the inflation process is analyzed, assuming that negative inflation expect...

In economies with high inflationary pressures and strong dollarization, banks' FX liabilities are taken into account as one of the criteria for dollarization. It is believed that bank-based dollarization can have significant effects on bank performance. In this study, the effects of increasing foreign currency liabilities, especially foreign curren...

z Bu çalışmada, banka sistemindeki döviz mevduatlarının artışına dayalı para ikamesi süreci analiz edilmekte ve Türkiye örneği üzerinden bu sorunun para politikalarının etkinliğine yansımaları değerlendirilmektedir. Çalışmada, Mizen'in (1999) teorik modeli temel alınarak geliştirilen eşanlı denklem sistemi, Türkiye için tahmin edilmiştir. 2002-2021...

In this study, the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks in emerging economies that are foreign dependence in oil and in the middle upper income group are examined. China, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey consisting of a sample has been analyzing during the 1999-2019 period and annual data are used in the analyses. In the analysis made with the Pan...

This study aims to determine how stability of the commercial banking market in dual banking systems is affected by macroeconomic and financial changes. It is also investigated whether the presence of Islamic banks causes a change in commercial banks' response to macro-financial changes. In the study, analyzes were conducted with pooled regression m...

Crediting in the banking sector plays an important role in developed and developing countries, which have built their financial system more on banking rather than capital markets. For this reason, it is monitored continuously by public authorities and measures are taken to control credit supply in rapid credit increases. In addition, strict provisi...

Monetary policy lags are very important, as they indicate the transmission time of central bank policies to the economy. Since the studies of Friedman (1961, 1972) are taken as a basis in the literature, it is generally believed that this transmission time is possible with long and variable lags. Transmission time may vary depending on the nature o...

This study is analyzed fluctuations in economic activity in Turkey with the help of dynamic factor models. Economic activity, which cannot be observed based on the observed variables such as industrial production, employment, exchange rate, interest and price movements, current balance and change in stock market index, has been estimated. A two-ste...

Rational expectations approach has some radical policy implications. It implies that systematic policies cannot influence real variables even in the short run, since people would have already anticipated what the policies are going to be and acted upon those anticipations. Thus, except for unpredictable random shocks, steady-state equilibrium alway...

Genellikle enflasyonu düşürme çabaları, işsizliğin artması ve toplam üretimin düşmesi olarak özetlenebilecek maliyetlere yol açmaktadır. Enflasyonun düşürülmesine uyum sürecinde para otoritesinin toplam talep artışını yavaşlatması gerekmektedir. Böylece geçici de olsa genel ekonomik faaliyetlerin hacminde bir azalma doğacak ve bir süre sonra darala...

Politika yapıcılar, ekonomik şokların gelecekte ekonomiyi nasıl etkileyeceğini tahmin etmek isterler. Bu tür şoklar zaman içinde süreklilik gösterebilir. Şokların enflasyon üzerinde süreklilik etkilerinin düzeyi, enflasyonun zaman serisi özelliklerine bağlıdır. Süreklilik enflasyonun önemli bir istatistiksel özelliğidir ve cari enflasyonun kendi ge...

Risk yönetiminin temel ilkesi portföy çeşitlendirmesidir. Ticari bankalar kredi riskini yönetebilmek için portföy teorisi çerçevesinde açtıkları kredileri etkin şekilde çeşitlendirmek zorundadır. Dolayısıyla bir bankanın kredilerinin belirli bir sektöre yoğunlaşması ciddi kredi kayıplarına maruz kalmasına neden olabilecek ana sebeplerden biridir. B...

Crediting in the banking sector plays an important role in all developed and developing countries. For this reason, it is monitored continuously by public authorities and measures are taken to control credit supply in economic growth periods. On the other hand, in an economic slowdown, when banks are reluctant to increase their credit portfolio, pu...

Deposit insurance, which constitutes one of the three pillars of the financial security network, is a widely used application in the world to provide financial trust and stability in the banking sector. The number of countries applying deposit insurance has increased steadily after the 2008 global crisis. Despite the positive aspects of deposit ins...

It is accepted that premium production of insurance companies is affected by economic cycles. Therefore, in this study, the interactions between life and life insurance companies' premium productions and economic fluctuations were investigated. Demitrescu-Hurlin causality tests were conducted using a sample of developed and emerging economies. The...

z 2008 finansal krizinin çok hızlı bir biçimde küresel ölçekte yayılması, birçok geliĢmiĢ ülke ekonomisi ve finansal sisteminde ciddi sıkıntılar yaĢanmasına neden olmuĢtur. Söz konusu dönemde Türkiye"nin de aralarında bulunduğu yükselen piyasa ekonomileri ise; finans sektörünün ekonomik büyümeyi desteklemesi ile çok ciddi geliĢme göstermiĢlerdir. B...

Dışa bağlılıkları giderek artan yükselen ekonomilerin, dış kaynaklı şokların etkilerine daha açık hale geldikleri görülmektedir. Bu tür şoklar genellikle finansal varlık ve emtia fiyatlarındaki artışlardan ileri gelir ve hassas ekonomik dengeleri olan küçük dışa açık ekonomileri derinden sarsabilirler. Yerel finans sisteminde çalkantılar, çıktı düz...

Crediting in the banking sector plays an important role in developed and developing countries, which have built their financial system more on banking rather than capital markets. For this reason, it is monitored continuously by public authorities and measures are taken to control credit supply in rapid credit increases. In addition, strict provisi...

External economic shocks can cause significant fluctuations in domestic macroeconomic variables. Especially in emerging economies, such shocks can have stronger effects. In the context of these assessments, the study is aimed to analyze the potential impact of external shocks on monetary policy in Turkey. Within the framework of a simple New Keynes...

After the 2008 Global Crisis, the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on financial crises, especially bank crises, has been begun discussed more. The findings of the applied studies show that both macroeconomic fluctuations in financial asset prices and important macroeconomic indicators such as growth and inflation have strong interact...

Electronic banking is a very popular aspect almost all over the world especially in the last few years. Banks make investment in this area in order to attract the attention of the customers. Therefore, it can be possible to survive in such a competitive environment. In the literature, it is also discussed that making investment into the technologic...

zet Çalışmada Türkiye ve Türk Cumhuriyetleri'nde tasarrufların büyüme sürecindeki rolü ve başlıca belirleyicileri deneysel olarak analiz edilmektedir. Türkiye ve Türk Cumhuriyetleri önemli ekonomik ve siyasi potansiyelleri ile yükselen ekonomiler arasında özel bir yere sahiptir. Sürdürülebilir büyüme sürecinde tasarrufların çok önemli bir unsur old...

ZET Çalışmada yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde şüpheli banka kredileri ve kredi açığının ekonomik ve finansal döngülerden nasıl etkilendiği araştırılmıştır. Bu çerçevede şüpheli krediler ile kredi açığının ekonomik faaliyet hacmini yansıtan değişkenlerle karşılıklı etkileşimleri üzerinde durulmuştur. 20 yükselen ekonomiden derlenen 1999-2014 dönemi y...

In this study, the effect of the international financial crises and the volume of the economic performance of the market share of the insurance sector and the premiums accumulated through life and non-life insurance sector are analysed. A dynamic panel data analysis is used to examine 30 developed and emerging economies for the years between 1995 a...

The aim of the study is to examine the effect of crises on the stability of the bankingsystem in 46 developed and emerging economies for the years 1999–2014. The variables are tested by using the two-step dynamic panel data analysis. The results indicate that the banking crises have an impact on the banking system stability. On the other hand, it i...

The aim of this paper is to determine the effect of corporate governance on foreign ownership of the banks. Within this context, annual data of 65 developing countries for the periods between 2004 and 2013 was analyzed. In addition to this situation, 7 explanatory variables were used in this study in order to achieve this objective. As a result of...

In this study, long-term interactions are investigated between internet banking and bank profitability performance. Pedroni cointegration tests and then estimations of the error correction model are made for the data from 2005 to 2014 for the European Union countries. ROA and ROE ratios are taken into account as a bank performance criteria. Analysi...

In the study, analyzes the reciprocal interactions between the non-performing loans and credit-to-GDP gap in Turkish commercial banking sector. The analysis is based on a panel data set of 27 banks that actively lend commercial credits to the quarterly data for the period 2006: 4 to 2016: 3. Panel causality tests were used as an analysis method. Th...

Before 2007-2008 global financial crisis, regulation system was based on the assumption that making each bank safe would make the banking system safe. After the crisis, it came out that macro prudential perspective was to be integrated and existing micro prudential regulation system should be supported. In this context, banking sector’s procyclical...

Uncontrolled credit rises have the capacity to cause serious banking crises. Global banking crises have led to discussions on credit-to-GDP gaps and new credit modelling structures. In this study, both developed and emerging economies are analyzed with regard to increased credit, non-performing loans, and credit-to-GDP gaps. Panel logit models are...

In this study were analyzed empirically the factors influencing the household savings in the developed and developing countries. Analyzes focused on macroeconomic variables and particularly on the effects of economic fluctuations. Although much empirical study has been done on the macroeconomic and demographic determinants of savings in the literat...

In this study, the effects of crises on bank performance were investigated using a sample covering the banking systems of 46 developed and emerging economies. In addition to the whole sample, developed and emerging economies were analyzed in separate sub-samples. Two-stage system dynamic panel data models are used as the analysis method. The findin...

zet Çalışmada sigorta şirketlerinin pazar payı ile hayat ve hayat dışı sigorta primlerinin ekonomik faaliyet hacmindeki ciddi değişmelerden nasıl etkilendikleri araştırılmıştır. Gelişmiş ve yükselen ekonomilerden meydana gelen bir örneklem kullanılarak panel VAR modellerine dayalı analizler uygulanmıştır. Ulaşılan bulgular sigorta sektörünün ekonom...

This study aims at analyzing macroeconomic imbalances and their interactions observed in emerging economies with a focus on the Turkic Republics. These countries have a special place in emerging economies because of their significant economic potentials. We used annual data covering the period of 2000-2014 of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Rebuplic...

Although there are a lot of studies testing the calendar effect in BIST, there are limited numbers of studies testing the Ramadan effect. In this study, the period of 05 August 1997–24 October 2014 is tested by the GJR-GARCH(1,1) model on the basis of BIST 30, 100, all, second national, sectors and sub-sectors. In some of the models, the dummy vari...

This study tries to examine the relationship between macroeconomic imbalances in developing countries which have rapid growth, but chronic economic problems. Within this scope, fragile eight countries were evaluated in this study. International financial environment defined the countries of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, India, Russia, South...

can more effectively fulfill financial mediatory functions and have important contributions to sustainable growth in countries where Islamic banking is applied. In this article, the roles of Islamic banking in growth and development are examined. The causality relationship between GDP and gross domestic capital formation with the total assets, fund...

Çalışmada Türkiye’nin 1960-2013 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak iki aşamalı bir analiz yapılmıştır. Önce Hodrick-Prescott, Band-Pass filtreleri ile Gözlenemeyen Değişken Modeli kullanılarak alternatif kredi açığı hesaplamaları yapılmış ve bunların performansları karşılaştırılmıştır. Ulaşılan bulgular, gözlenemeyen değişken modeline dayanan kred...

In this study, STARMA Models’ performances and advantages on analysis of variables based on time and space are addressed. Even though the history of STARMA Models starts from 1980's, these models remained in the shadows because of both lack of variable sets and its estimation difficulties. When the literature is examined, it's seen that STARMA Mode...

In this study, the interaction between internet banking and bank performance is investigated by panel causality tests. Banking data of 30 European countries analyzed by Demitrescu - Hurlin panel causality test for the period 2005-2013. ROA and ROE ratios were used as measures of bank performance. Not only whole sample consisting of Euro Area and th...

In this study, we investigated the effects of the bank's profitability performance of electronic-based banking services. The effects of ROA and ROE performance were analyzed the data, which are 23 developed and developing countries’ electronic banking services through 2005 to 2013, by dynamic panel data methods. Due to the innovative nature of elec...

Oz Bu calisma Turkiye’de faaliyet gosteren buyuk olcekli ticari bankalarin munferit ve sistemik risklerini analiz etmeyi amaclamaktadir. 2003-2013 donemini kapsayan yillik verilerle dogrusal panel veri analizleri yapilmistir. Ulasilan bulgular, sermaye yeterliligi, kaldirac orani ve buyukluk gibi degiskenlerin munferit riski acikladiklarini gosterm...

z Çalışmada Azerbaycan bankacılık sektöründe kısa ve uzun dönemde karların sürekliliği araştırılmıştır. Bu konuda farklı ülkeleri konu alan çok sayıda araştırma olmasına karşın kendi bölgesinde hızla gelişen bir ülke olan Azerbaycan'a dair yeterince çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Çalışmada sistem dinamik panel veri yöntemiyle karların sürekliliği analiz...

This study aims to make out-of-sample forecasts of recessions using the data of Turkey between 1986-2010. Recession forecast is important for decision makers in every level since it increases efficiency of decision making. Forecasting method used in this study is Qual-VAR method which includes information obtained from qualitative and/or discrete v...

This study analyzes long-term relation between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey. Vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models are used as analyzing methodology. Data base taken into consideration in models are monthly wholesale price index and monthly commodity price indices forming this index between the period 1990:1-2008...

This paper aims to introduce space-time autoregressive moving average (STARMA) models and to explain estimation procedure of these models. Despite the contribution of modelling approach of Pfeifer and Deutsch (1980a, 1980b, 1981a, 1981b ve 1981c), this work is based upon theoretical explanations and findings of Giacomini and Granger (2004). In the...

Bu çal›flman›n amac› Türkiye'de merkez bankas› müdahalelerinin döviz kuru oynakl›¤› üze- rindeki etkilerini belirlemek ve analiz etmektir. Çal›flmada, Euro ve Dolar kurlar›n›n getirileri 4.1.1999 - 24.9.2008 döneminin bütünü ve alt dönemleri itibariyle modellenmifltir. Ekonomet- rik analiz yöntemi olarak ARFIMA-GARCH ve ARFIMA-FIGARCH Modelleri kul...

This study aims to identify and analyze the effects of Turkish Central Bank's interventions over currency rate volatility. US Dolar and Euro Returns of Turkish Lira between 04.01.1999 and 24.09.2008 are modelled in the study. Econometric methods used are ARFIMA-GARCH and ARFIMA-FIGARCH models. Findings obtained from model verify the presence of lon...

This study aims to evolve a model used in foreseeing possible banking crises in Turkey. In the light of many empirical studies’ findings, a specific model for Turkey is developed. This model is estimated by using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) which is a non-linear and non-parametric estimation method. Estimation results show that...