Julius Lagodny

Cornell University | CU · Department of Government

Explicit racism in political campaigns is on the rise. Some research suggests policy threat and government discrimination are correlated with increased political participation, while others find evidence of alienation and withdrawal. However, little direct causal evidence exists on the effects of inflammatory campaign rhetoric on marginalized group...

To fully understand state policy outcomes or elections in the US, we need valid over-time measures of state-level public opinion. We contribute to the research on measuring state public opinion in two ways. First, we respond to Berry, Fording, Hanson, and Crofoot’s (BFHC) critique of Enns and Koch’s measure of state policy mood. We show that when B...

First, the chapter gives an overview of the relevant basics of empirical research (Sect. 1). It then elaborates on the function of a research question in those disciplines that use empirical methods. This is, in a most general way, ‘finding the truth’ (Sect. 2). As a next step, the authors transpose this function on legal research and ask: What is...

How do campaigns, media, and voting laws influence the outcome of U.S. Presidential elections? Political scientists often argue that these factors influence outcomes much less than commonly thought. To illustrate this argument, we show that we can predict the presidential vote in each state with a high degree of accuracy. Specifically, between 2004...

To forecast the 2020 Electoral College winner, we developed a model of two-party Democratic vote share in each state (plus Washington, DC) based primarily on each state’s presidential approval ratings and economic conditions. Our model, 104 days before the election, forecasted about a 4-in-10 chance that Donald Trump is reelected and about a 6-in-1...

Following Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 US presidential election, the American Association for Public Opinion Research announced that “the polls clearly got it wrong” and noted that talk of a “crisis in polling” was already emerging. Although the national polls ended up being accurate, surveys just weeks before the election substant...

EinleitungMit dem fünften Heidelberger Dialog widmete sich das Forum für internationale Sicherheit im Jahr 2013 einem politisch hochaktuellen Thema – der Migration und Flucht im Kontext von Krisen und Konflikten. Ist krisenbedingte Migration für den Einzelnen oft eine Frage des Überlebens, stellt sie aufnehmende Gesellschaften und Staaten vor erheb...